Friday Night Football

Friday Night Football

Boise State Broncos vs. San Jose State Spartans

Oddsmakers currently have the Broncos listed as 7-point favorites versus the Spartans, while the game's total is sitting at 41.

Kellen Moore threw for 256 yards in leading Boise State to a 27-7 win over Hawaii in Week 8. Boiste State failed to cover the 24-point spread, while the 34 points went UNDER the posted total of 52.5.

Moore completed 25-of-33 with three touchdowns.

San Jose State had 21 points in the first half in a 31-14 win over New Mexico State in Week 8. San Jose State covered the 2.5-point spread, and the 45 points fell UNDER the posted total of 52.5.

Current streak:
Boise State has won 6 straight games.
San Jose State has won 3 straight games.

Team records:
Boise State: 6-0 SU, 3-2 ATS
San Jose State: 5-2 SU, 5-1 ATS

Boise State most recently:
When playing in October are 10-0
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 9-1

San Jose State most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose State
Boise State is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boise State's last 5 games on the road
San Jose State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Jose State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Jose State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boise State

Next up:
Boise State at New Mexico State, Saturday, November 1
San Jose State at Idaho, Saturday, November 1

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Re: Friday Night Football

Boise St. at San Jose St.
By Brian Edwards

Let’s take another look at a Boise State team once again back in the spotlight on national television for “Friday Night Lights.” We (wisely) felt last week’s number was too rich to back the Broncos, who beat Hawaii 27-7 as 24-point home favorites.

What wasn’t wise was our decision to play the ‘over’ in a game that easily stayed ‘under’ the number. Therefore, we take a 4-3-1 record on Fridays into this week’s matchup.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Boise State (6-0 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) as an 8 ½-point road favorite for its trip to San Jose State. As of Thursday afternoon, most books had adjusted the Broncos to seven-point ‘chalk.’ The total is 42, while the Spartans are plus 220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220).

While most viewers are looking at Boise in terms of staying undefeated and crashing the BCS party like it did two seasons ago, the Broncos are merely focused on taking over sole possession of first place in the WAC. And they know how difficult it has been to escape San Jose unscathed recently.

San Jose State (5-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) is atop this week’s WAC standings thanks to a 3-0 record in league play, while Boise is 2-0 with wins over La. Tech and Hawaii. The Spartans are 3-0 in conference play for the first time in 13 years.
   
Chris Petersen’s team is always prolific offensively and this year is no different, as the Broncos are third in the WAC in scoring offense with a 32.5 points per game average. However, Boise’s 2008 defense is stealing some of the headlines.

In fact, the Broncos are second in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 10.5 PPG. They have given up more than seven points just once all season, in a 37-32 win at Oregon in which the Ducks got most of their points in the fourth quarter against a prevent defense.

Boise cornerback Brandyn Thompson was the catalyst in last week’s win over the Warriors. Thompson had three interceptions, two of which led to 10 second-half points that put the game away.

Kellen Moore had another outstanding performance, completing 25-of-33 passes for 256 yards, three touchdowns and most importantly, zero interceptions. For the season, the redshirt freshman has connected on 72.4 percent of his passes for 1,591 yards. Moore has a 13/3 touchdown-interception ratio.

San Jose St. has won three straight games both SU and ATS, including last week’s 31-14 win at New Mexico St. as a 1 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ The Spartans’ defense was the key in the win over the Aggies, sacking Chase Holbrook six times and forcing four turnovers.

With San Jose leading 7-0 in the first quarter, Kyle Flynn had a 90-yard interception return for a TD. Duke Ihenacho also had a pick-six later in the second half.

Dick Tomey’s squad is 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS at home this year. During his four-year tenure, San Jose St. is 5-2 ATS as a home underdog. Both of those ATS defeats came during his first season in 2004, but the Spartans are 5-0 ATS as home ‘dogs since 2005.

Boise is going on the road for the third time this year in this spot. The Broncos won at Oregon as previously mentioned, in addition to a 24-7 win at Southern Miss as 10-point favorites. The spread cover against the Golden Eagles allowed Boise to improve to 4-6 ATS as a road favorite during Petersen’s three-year tenure.

Boise St. has won all eight head-to-head meetings between these schools, including last season’s 42-7 win as a 25 ½-point home favorite. However, the last two meetings in San Jose have gone to the wire. The Broncos needed a pair of overtimes to win a 56-49 decision as 33-point road favorites in 2004. In 2006, Boise stayed undefeated thanks to a 23-20 win, but the Spartans took the money as 13-point home ‘dogs.

The ‘under’ has cashed in three consecutive Boise St. games and is 4-1 overall this year. The ‘under’ is even more lucrative for the Spartans, hitting at a 5-1 pace so far.

ESPN2 will have the telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Even though San Jose St. won 31-14 over New Mexico St. last week, gamblers should be aware of its mediocre offensive performance against a defense that had previously given up the following scoring outputs: 38, 33, 35 and 45. Kyle Reed completed just 8-of-18 throws for 50 yards and three interceptions. The Spartans had just 201 yards of total offense.

Reed’s play in Las Cruces was clearly his worst performance of the season. Even with no TDs and three picks, he still has a decent 7/6 TD-INT ratio. Reed has completed 69.4 percent of his passes for 1,164 yards.

--San Jose St. hosted one ESPN game on Friday last year. Although the Spartans lost a 42-35 heartbreaker to Hawaii in overtime, they easily cashed tickets as 17-point home underdogs.

--San Jose St. has the WAC’s second-best scoring defense, giving up just 16.6 points per game.

--The Spartans have lost nine in a row against ranked teams. They haven’t beaten a ranked foe since knocking off TCU in 2000.

--Boise St. RB Ian Johnson has 78 carries for 363 yards in 2007. He has four rushing TDs and a 4.7 yards per carry average.

--Four teams remain perfect for our purposes. Texas is 7-0 ATS, while Ball St. and Oklahoma St. are 6-0 versus the number. Ga. Tech is 5-0 ATS.

--There also four teams perfect for fade purposes. Washington St. is 0-7 ATS, while Wyoming is 0-6 ATS. Indiana is 0-5-1 versus the number and Clemson is 0-5 ATS.

--Oregon St. is off this week, but we’ll point out its five straight spread covers nonetheless. Let’s also mention Pac-10 rival UCLA, which has taken the cash in four straight outings.

--Wake Forest is a short ‘dog Saturday at Miami. The Demon Deacons are 18-9-1 ATS as road ‘dogs under Jim Grobe.

vegasinsider.com.

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Re: Friday Night Football

(13) Boise State (6-0, 3-2 ATS) at San Jose State (5-2, 5-1 ATS)

The Broncos hope to keep their BCS bowl hopes alive when they travel to Spartan Stadium to take on San Jose State in a battle of the only two Western Athletic Conference teams without a league loss.

Boise State, long known for its offensive firepower, has the second-ranked defense in Division I-A, allowing just 10.5 points per game, and the Broncos have given up more than seven points just once this season, in a 37-32 road win over then-No. 17 Oregon on Sept. 20. A week ago, Boise State’s defense stepped up yet again, allowing only 288 total yards (56 rushing) in a 27-7 home victory over Hawaii, but it came up just short as a 23-point favorite. The Broncos’ offense ranks third in the WAC, averaging 32.5 ppg, and QB Kellen Moore has completed 72.2 percent of his throws for 1,591 yards, 13 TDs and just three INTs.

San Jose State also fields a stout defense, and it showed in Saturday’s 31-14 road win over New Mexico State as a one-point road chalk, as the Spartans registered six sacks and forced four turnovers. San Jose State, which is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run, ranks second to Boise State in the WAC in scoring defense (16.6 ppg allowed). It also gives up just 272.6 total yards and 86.7 rushing yards per game, figures that are superior to the Broncos (310.7 total ypg, 123 rushing ypg allowed).

The Spartans are 3-0 at home this year (2-0 ATS), outscoring visitors by an average of 15 ppg (26-9) and outgaining them by nearly 200 total yards per outing (394-197). Meanwhile, Boise State is 2-0 SU and ATS on the highway, putting up 30.5 points and 387 total yards per contest and yielding 19.5 points and 371 total yards per game.

San Jose State is 0-8 all-time against Boise State, including 0-3 (2-1 ATS) under current coach Dick Tomey. The Broncos blew out the Spartans 42-7 last season on the Smurf Turf in Boise, cashing as 25½-point favorites. Prior to that, however, San Jose State had cashed in three straight meetings, including in 2006 at Spartan Stadium when the Spartans gave Boise State its biggest scare of the season, losing just 23-20 as a 13-point home underdog.

The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven series clashes, though the Broncos have finished with the yardage edge in all seven contests, including outgaining the Spartans by more than 200 yards five times.

The Broncos are on ATS streaks of 4-1 on the road, 5-2 in WAC games, 7-3 after a straight-up win, 8-3 in Friday kickoffs and 30-12-1 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, San Jose State is on pointspread runs of 21-8 overall, 20-7 at home, 14-3 in WAC contests, 10-1 after a straight-up win and 5-1 in October.

For Boise State, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall (3-0 last three), 4-1 on the road, 6-1 in league play, 5-1 on Fridays and 20-7-1 against teams with a winning record. It’s been all “unders” for the Spartans as well, including 21-5-1 overall (4-0 last four), 7-3-1 at home, 22-4-1 in conference action, 7-1-1 in October and 17-5 following a straight-up win. Finally, in this budding rivalry, the under has been the play in each of the last three meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

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Re: Friday Night Football

Tips and Trends

#12 Boise State at San Jose State

Boise State (-7.5, O/U 41): The 13th-ranked Broncos take one of the nation’s top scoring defenses into Spartan Stadium on Friday night to meet San Jose State. Boise State is second in the FBS in scoring defense, allowing 10.5 points per game. It’s given up more than seven points just once this season, in a 37-32 road victory over Oregon. They’re starting to rack up takeaways as well. Boise has 16 takeaways 20 sacks and 11 fourth-down stops in its last four games.

Boise State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games.
Boise State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 conference games.

Key Injuries - DL Joe Bozikovich (shoulder) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

San Jose State: Like Boise State, San Jose State has benefited from a tough defense. The Spartans have given up 16.6 points per game, second among WAC teams. They had six sacks and forced four turnovers in a 31-14 road win over New Mexico State on Saturday. The Spartans are 0-8 in the series and 0-3 under Dick Tomey, who’s in his fourth season. San Jose State has also lost its last nine games against ranked opponents.

Boise State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games in October.
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Key Injuries - DE Jeff Schweiger (ankle) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20


BOISE ST (6 - 0) at SAN JOSE ST (5 - 2)

Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE ST is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 74-45 ATS (+24.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 48-25 ATS (+20.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
BOISE ST is 50-27 ATS (+20.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
BOISE ST is 50-20 ATS (+28.0 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 45-18 ATS (+25.2 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 50-27 ATS (+20.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BOISE ST is 74-45 ATS (+24.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE ST is 1-1 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


Boise State at San Jose State
Boise State: 10-2 Under off win by 17+ points
San Jose State: 6-0 ATS in home games

Boise State struggled to win in last two visits here, winning 23-20 in '06, and 56-49 in OT in '04; home side covered four of last five series games. Broncos are more of defensive than in previous years, allowing seven or less points in four of five games vs D-I foes. They're 2-0 on road, 24-7 winners at Southern Miss (-9.5), 37-32 at Oregon (+10.5). Favorites are 8-4 vs spread in WAC games. San Jose scored 27 ppg in winning three games in row- they covered three of last four tries as an underdog.


BOISE STATE vs. SAN JOSE STATE
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boise State's last 5 games
San Jose State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boise State
San Jose State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

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