FRIDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: FRIDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
TAM (-120) vs BOS ALCS 3* BEST BET of the DAY
This should be an excellent series, and Tonight we have the all important Game 1 of the ALCS...and I just can't see any Value in going against the Home Team in this one...
For starters, the Rays have WON "71%" of their Home Games in 2008, and that tells us that we could have laid -240 on them at home and still turned a Profit...More importantly, Boston was average at best on the road, and in the "18" game played between these 2 clubs in the season...ONLY "3" have been won by the road team...and 2 of those wins came from the Rays at Fenway...
As we saw in the Phillies selection last night, many times edge in price alone is enough to make a wager...but Tonight we have much more going for us by backing the Rays...
Dice K has been incredible on the road this year, and to have success against him, you need patience...Well if you remember when he faced the Angels and we backed him and won...my reasoning was that Scoscia was asking an aggressive team to change what's led to their success, and we got rewarded for it...Tonight, we will need that same approach from the Rays batters, but the huge difference is that this team's philosophy all season has been "Patience at the Plate"...which is the main reason Dice hasn't lasted 6 inn against them...
I also really like the fact that we get Shields at home, whose splits really show that in this dome is where you want to back him...And speaking of domes, the Red Sox have never played well in them, including this year where they come in "2-11"...and "6-16" on the carpet...
When I broke this series down, the only reason I didn't go ahead and make a play on the Rays to advance is their lack of experience and nothing else...because I believe even without a big name closer, they really have an edge over the Red Sox in starting pitching and in the pen...especially at home...and you would give the nod to Boston offensively...but not by the type of margin many believe and Lowell being out will be huge, you can mark my word because the replacement value backing him up isn't even close, and then when you toss in defense, it becomes even more apparent that this is a very winnable series for Tampa...
When looking at how the market is reacting both to sharp and public money, I really like the way the Rays have gradually gone up in price, rather than one big shot...meaning, even though the books could expect much more public money to come in late on the Sox tonight...they are doing what they can to stop more sharp money from coming in on Tampa...and willing to book the Sox at "plus money"...Mainly because as I was informed by many of the books in town...there is a liability if the Rays win this series, and since they believe that is very likely...it's become evident they will attempt to offset what they can by having Boston be bet during the series...to avoid getting hit from both ends...
Finally, the atmosphere in Tampa tonight should be electric...and I really like how this club has shown that although they may be young, they are having fun and playing extremely loose...and if my vote for Coach of the Year is able to keep that attitude in the club house througout...even when facing adversity...we just may see this team in the World Series...
But first, they have a Game 1 to play...so let's go ahead and back the Rays as our 3* BEST BET of the DAY...and see if we can improve on our 65% MLB Playoff record...VR
Re: FRIDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Memphis +6.5 over Louisville
The Tigers started out 0-3 and have bounced back winning three straight. Memphis has been in every game this year and really are a team on the rise. Memphis has a good scrambling QB and the tallest receivers in the nation. Louisville has a good run defense, but I don't think they will be able to bring the heat because of Arkelon Hall's ability to scramble. Louisville just does not have the offense they once did. In the 4th quarter this year they have been outscored 48-12. This tells me this is not a complete football team and that they cannot finish. The Cardinals also have kicking problems with both freshman kickers. This line is set so low for a reason. Memphis has a real shot to win this game outright.
Major League Baseball
Rays -115 over Redsox
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