THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Rocketman Sports

4* Tulane

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EZWINNERS MLB

10 STAR: (961) SAN DIEGO (+$115) over LA Dodgers
(Listing Peavy and Maddux) (Risking $1000 to win $1150)

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JEFFERSONSPORTS

EARLY FOOTBALL RELEASE
SATURDAY NCAA FOOTBALL
MIAMI-7 -125

(Try to buy this line down to 6.5 or 7. It will go up. Play small at 7.5 or 8)

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Brandon Lang

10 Dime Southern Cal/Oregon State Over

5 Dime Tulane

FREE - Oregon State

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Matty O'Shea

Triple-Dime Bet

Oregon St. +26.0 vs Southern Cal


Double-Dime Bet

MIN -140 vs CWS

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LARRY NESS

Las Vegas Insider-MLB (57-34 since May 26 with MLB Insiders!)

The Twins opened this three-game series with the White Sox on Tuesday 2 1/2 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central (three games in the loss column). The Twins knew that anything less than a three-game sweep would probably end their division hopes. I played Minnesota on Tuesday in its easy 9-3 win but backed off the Twins last night, as Blackburn had been quite shaky as of late and Chicago veteran Mark Buehrle owned an excellent history against the Twins. Buehrle pitched well for Chicago but so did Blackburn and the Twins used three solo HRS to get a 3-2 win. The Twins can now move into the Central Division lead with a win tonight. Gavin Floyd (16-8 3.84 ERA) gets the start for Chicago. No one could have predicted this kind of a season from him. He spent his first three seasons with the Phillies ('04-'06), going 7-5 with a 6.96 ERA in 19 starts. He joined the White Sox last year, making 16 appearances (10 starts), while going 1-5 with a 5.27 ERA (team was 3-7 in his starts). So where did this year's 16-win season come from? Floyd has been great vs the Twins this year, going 3-1 with a 1.86 ERA in four starts, holding the Twins to a .168 average. However, Floyd has not looked good in September, allowing four or more ERs in THREE of his four starts (27.2 IP / 31 hits / 16 ERs / 5.20 ERA). He's also had much more success at home in '08, than he has on the road. That's mirrors his team as a whole, as the White Sox are 51-26 at home but just 35-45 on the road. The White Sox are 13-3 in Floyd's home starts this year, where he's allowed just 81 hits in 105.2 innings with a 3.66 ERA. That compares to Chicago's 8-7 mark in his road starts, where he's allowed 93 hits in 89 innings with a 4.04 ERA. I'll also remind everyone that Minnesota hit three HRs last night and Floyd has given up a team-high 30 HRs in '08. The Twins will counter with Kevin Slowey (12-11, 3.85 ERA). Don't be fooled by that record, Slowey been an excellent pitcher for Minnesota (especially at home), since mid June. After his first start of '08, Slowey was placed on the 15-day DL with a right biceps strain and didn't make it back to the majors until May 8, when he was recalled from the minors after a brief rehab assignment. Since June 13, Slowey is 10-5 in his 18 starts, with the Twins going 12-6. He's made eight home starts during that stretch, going 7-1 with a 2.25 ERA. The Twins are, like the White Sox, 51-26 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 5.39 RPG-to-3.72. If the Twins win here, they'll be a half-game up on the White Sox and they'll finish the season with three home games against the Royals. The White Sox end the season with three games in Chicago vs the Indians (Lee is scheduled to pitch on Sunday) and if necessary, a make-up game on Monday with the Tigers. It's pretty simple. Win tonight and Minnesota is the slight favorite to take the division and most importantly, will control its own destiny. Lose and the Twins would need help (lots of it). I'm betting the Twins rise to the challenge. Las Vegas Insider on the Min Twins

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SMOOTH44

MLB
NY-YANKEES +165
SAN DIEGO +120

CFB
SOUTHERN METHODIST + 19-120
SOUTHERN METHODIST ML +740 (SMALL)

Like Oregon State below I have very strong angles supporting that SMU has a chance to win this outright!!

OREGON STATE +25 ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
OREGON STATE ML +1540 (SMALL)

Call me crazy but I actually think Oregon State has a chance to win SU!! Certain weekday home dogs off a SU win are a PERFECT 10-0 ATS and an impressive 7-3 SU!! Meanwhile, certain undefeated road faves playing on more than 7 days rest are a PERFECT 0-11 ATS since 1992 and the average line in those games was 21.5 which is EXACTLY where this one opened and those teams failed to cover by 13 points/gm!! Additionally, we have a very rare but successful system in effect that involves playing against certain road faves off 2 consecutive ATS wins of 20 or more points - those teams are a PERFECT 0-6 ATS since 1984 and lost SU half the time and failed to cover by almost 17 points/gm!! Call me crazy but this moneyline is glaring at me and I have to put 1 unit on it!!

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NSA

20* SMU +18.5
10* USC -25
10* Cubs -125
10* Minnesota -150
10* Dodgers -130
10* Angels -120

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Vernon Croy

30 unit Platinum Play

USC

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BIG AL

THURSDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH

OREGON St

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Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections

LATE STEAM AFTERNOON BASEBALL POWER PLAY WINNER
Tampa Bay w/Kazmir -130 


LATE STEAM BASEBALL POWER PLAY WINNER
Minnesota w/Slowey -150

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Vegas Sports Experts

Thursday GOY

Oregon St.

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Stu Feiner

50 Dime USC

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Brian King

25 Dime Oregon St.
15 Dime Tulane/SMU Under
10 Dime Cubs

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Seabass

50* USC/Oregon St Under 52.5

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Wunderdog

Game: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Pick: 3 units Pittsburgh +194

This line is very inflated because the Brewers have a vested interest in the outcome as it pertains to their wildcard tie with the falling Mets. It is hard to lay two-to-one odds on a pitcher that has been on the shelf since May 1, in Yovani Gallardo. That means a lot of innings for a pen that has blown 26 saves already this season. The Brewers have been shaky down the stretch with just seven wins in their last 22 games. Zach Duke has underachieved all season, but he has been very solid in three of his last four starts, where he has allowed two runs or less. Duke keeps the Pirates in the game, then it is roll the dice, and at two-to-one odds I'll stand behind the Pirates.


Game: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Pick: 3 units Minnesota -144

The noose is tightening around the necks of the White Sox as their lead is down to just a half game over the Twins. The Twins have taken the first two games and are playing loose and free. This is the pivotal game. If the Twins lose they are two back with three to play. The White Sox are 10 games under .500 on the road while the Twins are 25 over at home, but barely over .500 against right hand pitching. Kevin Slowey has been a full 1.5 runs better at home, 3.04 vs. his road ERA of 4.52, and the Twins are now 7-1 in his last eight home starts. Gavin Floyd has a road ERA of over four, and the Pale Hose are just 7-7 in his last 14 road starts. Minnesota has been 32-10 over their last 42 at home, and I like them to take over first place in the AL Central with the win here.


Game: San Diego at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: 3 units Los Angeles Dodgers -116

The only thing holding this moneyline down is Jake Peavy. It certainly isn't the way the Padres are hitting and winning as they are close to 100 losses on the season, and have been out-scored 22-5 in the first two games here. The fact is that Peavy has been poor on the road with a sub-par 4.20 ERA, so not even close to the same pitcher, and the Padres have been no better off with him on the mound anyway as they are 8-15 in his last 23 starts. The Dodgers are hot and 18-5 in their last 23, so I'll back them here.


Game: Los Angeles Angels at Seattle
Pick: 3 units Los Angeles Angels -113

I am still not sure what the books are thinking here, but I'll keep playing the value. The M's have reached the century mark in losses, and Los Angeles is fast approaching 100 wins, but the lines keep showing something different. The Angels are still playing meaningful games, to secure home field throughout the playoffs, so while the pennant race lines are -200 or more everyday, these lines are issued like LA is not going to show up. Well they have shown up enough to win 11 of their last 14, while leading the division by 20 games, and two of three here. There just isn't anything more that needs to be said, but Seattle against half the Angels’ regulars is not close to even money here, going Angels in this one.

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BEN BURNS

THURSDAY GAME OF THE MONTH

I'm taking the points with OREGON STATE. As usual, USC has another excellent team. That being said, asking them to win a nationally televised conference road game by more than three touchdowns is asking an awful lot. In fact, this is the first time since 2006 that the Trojans have been asked to lay more than three touchdowns on the road and only the third time in their last 20 road games overall. Yes, the Trojans have looked good thus far. They went on the road and pounded a rebuilding Virginia team and then came home and did the same thing to a strong Ohio State squad. That big victory should have the Trojans patting themselves on the back a bit, as they read all the press-clippings about how great they are. Off that big win and with a "revenge" game vs. Oregon on deck, I feel that this will be a difficult scheduling spot. This is Week 5 of the schedule and if we look back at the last couple of years, we find that the Trojans have really struggled at this time. Last season, they got off to a great start, winning their first three games by double-digits. They won those games by 28, 18 and 33 points. They were ranked #1 when they visited Washington in Week 5. That was their conference road opener and they were laying nearly three touchdowns. Sound familiar? Yet, while everyone was expecting another blowout, the Trojans struggled and won by only three points. The Trojans also failed to cover in their conference road opener in 2006. Additionally, they failed to cover in Week 5 that year. Overall, the Trojans are a money-burning 1-8 ATS in Week 5 through Week 9 the past two years. Note that Riley's Beavers were 6-3 ATS during the same stretch. It's true that USC has had the benefit of a bye week to prepare. However, the same can also be said for Oregon State. While he hasn't had the talent to work with that Pete Carroll has had at USC, Mike Riley is also an excellent coach. Note that Riley's Beavers were 3-0 SU/ATS when coming off a bye week the last two seasons. Looking back further and we find Oregon State at an outstanding 16-7-1 ATS it's last 24 games when coming off a bye. The Beavers come in with a 1-2 record. They lost a winnable game on Opening Night, falling by eight points at Stanford. That result has given us some added value as a lot of the betting public lost with the Beavers in that game (or at least watched them) and are now unwilling to back them and/or believe that they are a really bad team. However, as already mentioned, winning a nationally televised conference road game is no easy task. Additionally, strange things can happen in Week 1 - just ask last year's Michigan team. My point is that I'm willing to forgive the Beavers for the Week 1 loss. I'm also willing to look past the Week 2 loss. That's because that game also came on the road and was against a very strong Penn State team. Their lone home game, which came prior to the bye, saw the Beavers put it all together as they crushed Hawaii, 45-7. The Beavers have been great at home in recent years and they upset USC (Trojans were ranked #1 at the time) the last time these teams played here. The Trojans will get their points but I look for the Beavers to also score, keeping this game much closer than expected and hanging within the inflated number. *Thursday Night GOM


I'm taking the points with SMU. I won with Tulane a couple of weeks ago when the Green Wave were hosting East Carolina. I felt that the line on the Pirates was too high and that the teams were more evenly matched than was reflected in the line. I feel the same way about this evening's game, only this time I believe that it's Tulane which has become over-valued. That has happened due to the Green Wave coming off their first victory (vs. UL-Monroe) and having gone 3-0 ATS. Give them credit for being competitive. However, a closer look shows that the lone victory came by 14 points and the Green Wave lost the other two games. Granted, those games both came against really good teams. Still, my point is that they haven't won a game by more than two touchdowns yet and I feel that this spread is too high. Keep in mind that Tulane is only averaging 18 points per game and has yet to even score more than 24 in a single game. It's also worth noting that Tulane was a money-burning 5-11-1 ATS (5-12 SU) in Conference play the past two seasons. The other reason for the high number is that the Mustangs have been blown out in each of their past two games. However, let's also keep in mind that both those games came against a pair of very powerful teams (TCU and Texas Tech) which are both currently ranked in the Top 25 and which have a combined record of 8-0. In other words, Tulane represents a significant step down in class from either of those Texas based power-houses. I believe that these teams are far more evenly matched than the pointspread indicates. Looking back to last year and we find that it was SMU which was a -6.5 point home favorite. Tulane got an absolutely massive game from running back Matt Forte (CUSA record 342 yards!) and scored a 41-34 upset in overtime. Fortunately for the Mustangs, Forte is finished school now. While Tulane lost it's offensive star, the Mustangs brought in a proven winner in coach June Jones, who recently had plenty of success at Hawaii. Jones knows that a victory here would have his team right back where they should be and he desperately wants to avoid a third straight blowout loss. The Mustangs won by five points (33-28) here in 2006 and I look for these teams to play a third straight close game tonight. *Annihilator

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DOC'S

3 Unit Play. Take Florida over Washington

The Fish are a much better team then the Nationals and still have visions of finishing the season ten games over the .500 mark. Their manager has already said that they will play to win in the last four games of the season and that bodes well. This is the game that National fans have been waiting for since with a loss they will reach triple digits on the 2008 season. They are on the road after this so tonight is their only chance to accomplish this milestone at home. Both of tonight’s pitchers are bad and thus expect a lot of runs and we will side with the better offensive unit


3 Unit Play. Take Over in SMU @ Tulsa

June Jones has not had much success since taking over the Mustangs but his pass happy offense creates a lot of scoring since the clock stops early and often. All four of SMU’s games have gone over the posted number in this game and that is why the best bet lies with the over. In fact the SMU defense is giving up over 45 points per game and that alone can almost allow us to collect this ticket. Tulane is a big favorite in this game and is ready to blowout a weaker opponent after playing a brutal schedule to open the season with games against Alabama and East Carolina. We will not worry if they can cover this inflated line and just collect with the OVER.

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Insiders Sports Network Guaranteed Selections  

INSDERS NETWORK BASEBALL PLAY OF THE YEAR
Chicago Cubs w/Harden -120 

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Trace Adams

1500* - Southern Cal Trojans

Possible "lull" spot for the Trojans who haven't played since drilling Ohio State 35-3, while Oregon State comes into this big home date with a confidence-building 45-7 rout of Hawaii.

It should also be noted that USC hasn't had it easy on their trips to Corvallis, as they have lost 2 of their last 3 trips there outright, and have failed ALL 3 against the spread.

Still, with no threat of imclement weather forecasted, I can't see how the Beavers who did lose to Penn State by a 45-14 count stay with this Trojans team.

I feel sure Pete Carroll will not need to remind his team of the past troubles they have had played at Corvallis, and I expect the Trojan "D" to make life miserable for whoever is under center for State tonight.

Throw in the fact the Beavers have a very young defense, and Mark Sanchez and his mates should eventually pull away and cover this big number.

Yes, this is a lot of points on the road, but SC has covered 6 of their last 7 on the highway, including their 52-7 pasting of Virginia earlier this year.

Lay the lumber!

1500♦ - Southern Cal Trojans


500* - Florida w/Sanchez over Balester

The Marlins snapped a 4-game slide with the win last night, as the Nats have now lost 6 of their last 7 games.

Florida is now 7-1 in games played in DC this year, and 14-3 overall in the season series, and I just don't see them losing in this spot.

Sanchez is 1-0 in his 2 starts against the Nationals, while Balester is fresh off 5 innings of 5 run ball in a home no decision against San Diego.

Lay the small road chalk on Florida based on the dominant season series numbers they sport against Washington this year.

500♦ - Florida w/Sanchez over Balester

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