SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Info Plays

3* on Minnesota Twins +113

Minnesota faces Fausto Carmona who is making his first start back from the disabled list tonight.  The Twins send their Ace in Scott Baker to go pick up a win against the struggling Indians.  Baker is 6-3 with a 3.26 ERA this season and 1-1 with a 2.05 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CLEVELAND) - excellent fielding team - averaging <=0.5 errors/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.  This is a 76-43 ML System hitting 63.9% since 1997.  Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.  This is a 39-15 ML System hitting 72.2% since 1997.  Bet the Twins behind Baker on the road.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Priceless Picks

1 Unit on San Diego Padres +100

The Padres have Pittsburgh 's number.  The Padres are a dominant 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in this matchup.  The Bucs can't buy a win behind Van Benschoten.  The Pirates are 0-8 in Van Benschoten's last 8 home starts, 0-7 in Van Benschoten's last 7 starts as a home underdog, 0-5 in Van Benschoten's last 5 starts vs. National League West, and 0-5 in Van Benschoten's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  This 25-0 Angle warrants a play on the Padres.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Dwayne Bryant

Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays 
Pick: Seattle Mariners +141

The Blue Jays may need to continue their high-scoring ways if they hope to win with David Purcey on the hill. The 6'5" lefty fared poorly in two emergency starts earlier this season. He walked seven while lasting 4 1/3 innings on April 18, then gave up eight runs over three innings in a 10-3 loss at Philadelphia on May 16.

Seattle's R.A. Dickey has been very solid since getting some advice from fellow knuckleballers Tim Wakefield and Charlie Hough. Since then, Dickey has allowed just eight runs in 32 1/3 innings (2.23 ERA). Dickey pitched well in his lone start vs. the Jays this season, allowing just two runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 2-0 loss.

Seattle has struggled offensively as of late, but the lefty Purcey could be just what the doctor ordered. Seattle is batting .285 and scoring 6.1 runs per game on the road vs. lefties this season.

Take Seattle/Dickey over Toronto/Purcey.


Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies RUN LINE -115

Mike Hampton will make his first major league start since August 2005 as the visiting Braves try to beat the Philadelphia Phillies for just the third time in 11 tries this season. Hampton, a former 22-game winner and two-time All-Star, was 5-3 with a 3.50 ERA for Atlanta in 2005, but he left a start against San Diego on Aug. 19 with tightness in his elbow. He had Tommy John surgery six weeks later, and while trying to rehab from that in 2007, tore a flexor tendon in his elbow, shutting him down for the rest of that year. He's had a number of other injuries trying to make his latest comeback - Hampton was scheduled to start April 3 when he strained a pectoral muscle just 10 minutes before he was going to throw the game's first pitch. He aggravated that on a minor league rehab assignment, then strained a groin in a start in Double-A on July 15.

Philadelphia's Cole Hamels has been nearly untouchable against the Braves this season. The left-hander is 2-0 with a 0.51 ERA in two games, recording all but one out in a pair of Philadelphia wins. Hamels has been terrific at home, posting a 2.79 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .255 OOBP at Citizens Bank Park. Hamels has also enjoyed 5.86 runs per game of support in his seven day starts this season. The Phillies bats should wake up this afternoon against what should be a rusty Hampton.

Take Phillies/Hamels over Atlanta/Hampton on the run line.


Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Pick: Minnesota Twins +113

Fausto Carmona makes his first start in two months tonight. Pitching coach Carl Willis told the Indians' official Web site that it will be crucial for Carmona not to get overly excited to be back on the mound. "It's all about him controlling his emotions and his effort level," Willis said. "Anybody who misses time and comes back after a while, it's hard to pull the reins back. I'm sure that's something we'll deal with (Saturday)." I think that emotion will work against Carmona, which will make it difficult for Cleveland to win this game against a solid pitcher like Scott Baker.

Baker is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his last six starts. He also owns a 1.29 ERA in two outings against Cleveland this year. The Twins also own a solid edge in the bullpen. Minny's pen owns a 3.25 ERA, while Cleveland's pen sports a 5.00 ERA. The Twins are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record and 13-3 in their last 16 games with the total set at 7-8.5. The Twins are 9-3 in their last 12 during game 2 of a series, while the Indians are 3-12 in their last 15 during game 2 of a series.

Take Minnesota/Baker over Cleveland/Carmona.


Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers 
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -165

Milwaukee has been a thorn in my side the last two days, but I guess that was bound to happen after the success we've had in Brewers' games prior to the last 48 hours. I expect Milwaukee to get right back to their winning ways tonight after having Houston snap their eight-game winning streak last night. That game was the letdown I spoke about in yesterday's analysis, but you can bet there will be no letdown by the Brewers tonight.

Brewers starter Dave Bush has held opponents to one run in four of his last five starts, going 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA in that stretch. Bush struck out a career-high 13 batters while limiting Colorado to one run and three hits in eight innings of his last start - an 11-1 victory July 10. He retired 23 of the last 24 batters he faced while improving to 4-2 with a 2.49 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .246 OOBP in nine home outings. Bush is 5-1 with a 3.22 ERA in 11 career games against Houston, nine of them starts. Bush also benefits from getting 5.9 runs per game of support in his starts at Miller Park. Milwaukee is 5-1 in Bush's home starts against Houston.

The Astros counter with Brandon Backe. Backe is 3-3 with a 4.74 ERA in nine career games - six starts - against the Brewers. Backe's road numbers (4.59 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, .359 OOBP) are also very mediocre. It doesn't help that he gets just 2.75 runs per game of support in his road starts. Houston has lost all three of Backe's starts at Miller Park.

Take Milwaukee/Bush over Houston/Backe.


Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants 
Pick: San Francisco Giants +109

This has the makings of a classic pitchers' duel. Two of the best pitchers in baseball square off as Arizona's Brandon Webb (13-4, 3.11 ERA) takes on the Giants' Tim Lincecum (11-3, 2.79).

For his career, Webb is 11-5 with a 3.22 ERA against San Francisco. In his first full season in the majors, Lincecum is leading the league with 143 strikeouts while ranking in the top five in wins and ERA. Lincecum is 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in three career starts against Arizona.

I also like the fact that Webb is coming off three straight Quality Starts, while Lincecum was roughed up by a hot Brewers team in his last start. I can definitely see the Law of Averages coming into play here tonight.

Webb has gotten just 3.4 runs per game of support in his road starts, while Lincecum has received 5.7 runs per game of support in his starts at AT&T Park. With a pitching matchup that is about even, the Giants slight offensive edge makes them an attractive home dog.

The oddsmakers know this is going to be a pitchers' duel, as they have set the total to an ultra-low 6.5. It should be noted that the Diamondbacks are 1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower, while the Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

Take San Francisco/Lincecum over Arizona/Webb.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

LT Profits

Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers Under 9.0

The Under is 35-17 in the last 52 meetings between the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers, and tonight should be no different considering the pitching matchup.

Justin Verlander was considered a Cy Young candidate before this season started, but he got off to a terrible start, and he is still just 8-9 on the year with the Tigers going 9-12 as a team in all of his starts. However, he is now in raging form, having reeled off nine straight Quality Starts including allowing two earned runs or less in his last eight outings.

The Tigers are 7-1 in those starts including a perfect 6-0 in the last six efforts, and this streak began with a great outing vs. these White Sox on June 11. Verlander tossed a Complete Game four-hitter that day right here in this stadium, allowing only one run.

The White Sox counter with John Danks, who has a very nice 3.03 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 118.2 innings this year. Best of all, he has been at his best on the road, where he is 4-1 with a sparkling 1.92 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Danks has not faced the Tigers yet this year, but he did post a Quality Start the last time he faced them last season.

We look for both starting pitchers to be at their best tonight.

Pick: White Sox, Tigers Under 9


Minnesota Twins +110

Fausto Carmona make his return to the mound tonight when his Cleveland Indians host the Minnesota Twins, but we think he will have his hands full vs. Scott Baker here.

Baker has been on a roll, as he is developing into the stud pitcher that most scouts agreed he would be. He allowed one run and just two hits in eight innings in his last start vs. the normally potent Texas Rangers lineup, and that marked the ninth time in his last 10 starts that Baker allowed three runs or less. More importantly, he has allowed three runs or less in his last five outings vs. the Indians, including two starts this year where he allowed a grand total of two runs in 14 innings.

Now Carmona is making his first major league start since May 23, and truth be told, he seemed much more hittable before getting shelved this season than he was last year, when he garnered a few Cy Young votes. Yes, he still has a good 3.10 ERA, but his poor 1.59 WHIP in 58 innings suggests that he has been rather lucky.

The Twins are averaging an impressive 4.85 runs per game despite being near the bottom of the league in home runs, and we look for them to manage enough runs off of a possibly rusty Carmona here to gain the victory.

Pick: Twins +110

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

KELSO

High Rollers Club

15 Units Angels


Best Bets Club

5 Units Yankees
4 Units Tampa Bay
3 Units Tigers

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Maddux Sports

3 units on Milwaukee -163
3 units on Arizona -111
3 units on Tampa Bay -154

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Larry Ness

15* TV Game of the Week

Josh Becket had beaten the Yankees three times in '08, allowing three ERs in each outing. Beckett held the Yanks to one run last night over seven innings (his best outing this year vs New York) but was out-pitched by Joba Chamberlain (7 IP / 3 hits / 0 runs / 9 Ks) as the Yanks won 1-0. Boston must now regroup for an afternoon game at Fenway in which the Red Sox will face Andy Pettitte and a Yankee team which has now gone 7-0 since the break. Pettitte is 11-7 with a 3.86 ERA this year and comes in pitching extremely well. He had a terrible five-start stretch from April 25-May 15 in which he went 0-4 with a 6.26 ERA (team was 0-5). Doing the math, that makes him 11-3 with a 3.24 ERA over his other 16 starts this year and that includes a June 7 outing in which he allowed 10 ERs (it would be 2.55 without that one game). Pettitte's lifetime mark vs the Red Sox is excellent (15-7 with a 3.61 ERA in 30 starts) but he struggled against them in his lone start this year vs Boston (a 7-0 home loss on July 3), when he allowed six runs (five earned) and nine hits in 4.2 innings. Let's also note that he has allowed at least four ERs in four of his last six starts against Boston (going back to April 27 of last year). The ageless Tim Wakefield gets the call for Boston and Wakefield is once again doing yeoman's work for the Red Sox. He went 17-13 last year, getting a decision in all but two of his 32 starts in '07 (team went 19-13). He enters this game 6-7 with a 3.69 ERA but deserves a much better fate. He's pitched into the 7th inning in 10 consecutive starts, allowing more than three ERs just one time (allowed four) and one ER or less in seven outings. Despite all that, he's just 3-3 while the Red Sox are only 4-6. While the Yanks are red-hot, how can one go against Boston in this spot? The Yanks are just 24-23 on the road this year, while Boston is 16-6 vs lefties (9-2 at home). What's more, the Red Sox are 13-2 in day games at Fenway Park in '08, averaging 6.9 RPG!

TV Game of the Week 15* Bos Red Sox.


Weekend Wipeout Winner

The Tigers opened the season 0-7 and after June 6 were just 24-36. However, the team won 28 of its next 41 games and entered this weekend three-game series with the White Sox just 5 1/2 games back in the AL Central. Chicago looked vulnerable coming onto this series, with the pitching staff having posted a 6.61 ERA over its previous three series. Chicago's bullpen really struggled during that nine-game span, with a 7.06 ERA and a .305 opponents batting average. However, it was Detroit's bullpen that was the culprit on Friday. The Tigers led last night 4-1 heading into the 7th but let it slip away when Dye hit a two-run HR in the 9th to cap Chicago's 6-5 comeback. Can the Tigers bounce back? I believe so, despite the fact that they'll have to face John Danks. Danks has had a very good year for the White Sox in '08, going 7-4 with a 3.03 ERA in 20 starts (team is 12-8). One has to take notice of his 1.92 road ERA but one can also question whether Danks is really as good as his numbers. He was just 6-13 with a 5.50 ERA (team was 9-17 in his starts) in '07 (rookie season) and his last two starts here in '08 have been rather ugly.He allowed seven hits and four ERs (7.2 IP) in a 9-7 win at Texas right before the break and in his lone start since the break, lasted just four innings, allowing nine hits and six ERs in an 8-7 home loss to the Royals. That's 16 hits and 10 ERs over 11.2 innings (7.71 ERA). The lefty will be facing a Detroit team which was 28-15 vs lefties in '07 (averaged 5.9 RPG) and one that is 20-7 (5.1 RPG) against left-handed starters in '08. Expect the Tigers to get to Danks and with Verlander on the mound, Detroit is in good shape. Verlander was one of the AL's top starters the last two seasons, going 35-15 with a 3.64 ERA. The Tigers went 41-21 (plus-$1,653) in his 62 regular season starts in '06 and '07, making him one of MLB's top "money-makers" as well. However, that Justin Verlander was nowhere to be found at the beginning of the '08 season. He opened 1-6 with a 6.43 ERA over his first eight starts (team was 1-7) and even when he began turning things around, the team continued to lose when he was on the mound, falling to 2-11 in his first 13 starts of 2008. However, Verlander's struggles are long gone, as he's allowed two ERs or less in 11 of his last 13 starts. More importantly, the wins have returned since a June 11 start. Verlander beat the White Sox 5-1 that day, beginning a eight-start stretch in which he's gone 6-0 with a 2.30 ERA (team is 7-1), while holding opponents to a combined batting average of just .183!

Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Det Tigers.


20* NL Total of the Year (3-0 with 20* totals in '08!)

My 20* play is on Arz/SF Over at 9:05 ET. The D'backs and Giants meet tonight in San Francisco, as Brandon Webb (13-4, 3.11 ERA) faces off against Tim Linceum. Webb has already established himself as one of the NL's top pitchers (won Cy Young in '06), while Lincecum (11-3, 2.79 ERA)., in just his second year, is "knocking on the door" to be included among the NL's elite pitchers. The Giants own a team batting average of just .255 (ranks 22nd) and the D'backs are hitting only .250 (26th), so naturally the total for this game is low (opened 6 1/2). However, it's TOO low and here's why! Let's look at the average scores of these two teams. Arizona has played 50 road games, averaging 3.98 RPG and allowing 4.04 (that's 8.02 per). The Giants have played 52 home games, scoring just 3.85 RPG but allowing 5.12 (that's 8.97 per). Now of course we have two dominant pitchers here in Webb and Lincecum but they are not in top form. Webb opened 9-0 with a 2.56 ERA this season but is just 4-4 with a 3.81 ERA over his last 12 starts (team is 5-7). As for Lincecum, he may be getting a little arm weary. He never allowed more than three ERs in ANY of his first 13 starts this year, while allowing one ER or less in SEVEN of those 13 outings. However, beginning with a June 16 start vs the Tigers (7 IP / 6 hits / 4 ERs), he's allowed three ERs or more in FIVE of his seven starts, including four ERs or more, four times (4.40 ERA in that seven-game span). Now ERAs of 3.81 and 4.40 are not all that bad these days but remember, this total opened 6 1/2. There is NO margin for error. Arizona had 11 hits last night in scoring 10 runs and the Giants had 10 hits (nine off Haren) but only scored twice while leaving eight men on base. Despite their lack of offense and ML-worst 20-32 home mark, the Giants are 29-21-2 to the 'over' this year in home games. Chalk up another one tonight! NL Total of the Year 20* Arz/SF Over.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Tom Stryker's MLB Home Cookin' Blowout of the Week - 38-19 Run!

DETROIT with Verlander (-146) over Chicago

If Detroit is going to make a move in the American League Central standings, they can't blow games like they did last night. That heart-breaking loss makes this contest against the White Sox extremely important.

On the bump for the Tigers will be one of their hottest arms right-hander Justin Verlander. In his last six performances (all Detroit wins), Verlander has been touched for only 11 earned runs and 27 hits in 39.2 innings of work. That breaks down to a respectable 2.50 ERA! The Motor City has been kind to Justin too. With 78.0 frames in the bank, No. 35 has been nicked for only 32 earned runs and 62 hits. That adds up to a decent 3.69 ERA!

The Pale Hose will counter with young southpaw John Danks. If Mr. Danks throws like he did in his last trip to the mound, this best bet will be over early. At home against Kansas City on July 20th, Danks got ripped for six earned runs and nine hits in only 4.0 innings of work!

On a technical note, Chicago has struggled on foreign soil dropping 13 of its last 19 games and stands a woeful 4-11 in its last 15 priced as an underdog. Meanwhile, Jim Leyland's troops have devoured left-handers cashing 46 of their last 66 and have popped for wins in 36 of their last 53 priced as a favorite. Take Detroit with listed pitcher Verlander.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Scott Spreitzer's 25* MLB SATURDAY KNOCKOUT! *14-3, 82% Run!

I'm laying the price with the Tigers on Saturday. If you've been with me over the past four weeks, you know I have played Justin Verlander on several occasions. The Tigers have won each of his last six starts, and four straight at Comerica. The righthander actually started warming up on May 14...and has been as good as it gets for 13 straight starts. He's held those 13 opponents to 25 earned runs and 97 base runners in 87 2/3 innings. Verlander is averaging almost seven innings per start, and he has more strikeouts than hits allowed, 69-to-64! By the way, the above numbers add up to a 2.57 ERA & 1.11 WHIP. Verlander completely shut-down the ChiSox in a June 11 complete game win. And, Chicago is averaging just four runs per game in road night games against righthanders. Meanwhile, it's highly publicized, but worth noting again, that Detroit absolutely crushes southpaws. They'll face lefty John Danks, who was lit-up in his last start...his only one since the all-star break. That's worth noting because Danks, who owns a career 3.52 pre-all star ERA, is just 1-7 in 11 starts afterwards, posting a 7.59 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and .326 BAA! The southpaw really wore down in the second half last season. Making matters worse for Danks, (or better for us), is that Detroit has rocked the young hurler in his three career starts against them. In fact, in his only outing at Comerica, Danks was knocked around for four earned runs and nine base runners in just 4 2/3 innings of action. I expect more of the same tonight. Two big runs continue...Verlander's dominance on the bump and Detroit's dominance at the plate against lefthanders. The Tigers are my 25* release on Saturday.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

3G-Sports

ST LOUIS CARDINALS 117

OAKLAND ATHLETICS -191

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

ROBERT FERRINGO

7.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 New York Yankees at Boston
Note: This is our American League Total of the Year.

2-Unit Play. Take Detroit (-150) over Chicago White Sox

3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore
2-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Angels (-120) over Baltimore

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 10.5 San Diego at Pittsburgh
1-Unit Play. Take San Diego (-110) over Pittsburgh

1-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+105) over Cleveland

1-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (+120) over New York Mets

1-Unit Play. Take Milwaukee (-1.5, +115) over Houston

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Mike Rose  AFL GOM

7* PHILADELPHIA -3½-105 VS. SAN JOSE

The ArenaBowl has finally arrived giving AFL bettors their last chance to pad their bankrolls for the upcoming 2008-09 NFL and NCAA football seasons. The 22nd installment of the AFL’s grand game pits the (11-5) Western Conference champion San Jose Sabercats against the (13-3) Eastern Division champion Philadelphia Soul. This will be just the fourth time these franchises have squared off against one another.

The defending ArenaBowl XXI Champion Sabercats are making their second consecutive ArenaBowl appearance, and fourth in seven seasons, after defeating the #6 Grand Rapids Rampage, 81-55, at the HP Pavilion in the American Conference Championship game two weeks ago. The 26-point victory saw the Sabercats easily cover the six-point spread, and the combined 136-points surpassed the 119-point closing ‘total’ with ease. San Jose covered each of its post-season games to get back to New Orleans making its AFL betting backers very happy, and they’ll look to become the first team since Tampa Bay back in 1996 to hoist the Jim Foster Trophy in back-to-back seasons. Overall, the American Conference champs went 13-5 SU and 8-8-2 ATS, but they enter the biggest game of the season on a 7-3-2 ATS run their L/12 overall games.

The Philadelphia Soul is making its first-ever ArenaBowl appearance after earning a league-best 13-3 record during the regular season and capturing its first Eastern Division title in the franchises five-year existence. The top-ranked Soul defeated the #4 Cleveland Gladiators, 70-35, in the National Conference Championship online betting game two weeks ago at the Wachovia Center. The 35-point victory saw the Soul easily cover the 6.5-point spread, and the combined 105-points stayed under the 118-point closing ‘total’. With many around the league questioning Philly’s placement in the National Conference Finals after a questionable call enabled them to get past the New York Dragons, the Soul let it be known they’re the best the conference had to offer after humiliating the Cleveland Gladiators. Overall, the National Conference champs stand 15-3 SU and 9-8-1 ATS coming into this game, but they’re a poor 2-6 ATS their L/8 when installed the favorite. That said; Head Coach Brett Munsey’s club has stepped up to the plate against winning competition going 6-2-1 ATS the L/9 times.

These clubs locked horns with one another way back in Week 7 when the Soul fought back from a 26-point deficit to defeat the Sabercats, 58-57, on a five-yard touchdown run by QB Matt D’Orazio with 10 seconds remaining in the game. The win kept Philadelphia’s perfect mark intact (7-0), while San Jose dropped to 3-4 after the crippling home defeat. The victory was the Soul’s first ever defeat of the Sabercats who won and covered against them back in 2004 and 2005.

It’s been more than a month since the Sabercats have left the comfy confines of their own arena where they only managed 5-3 SU and 2-5-1 ATS marks as a visitor. Philadelphia won pretty much everywhere they played this season, and managed to go 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS on the road in some very hostile environments. The Soul played a much tougher schedule than that of their opponents, and I expect that to play a major role in determining the victor of this game. I pegged Philly to hoist the trophy midway through the regular season, and I’m sticking to my guns. Lay the points with Bon Jovi and Jaworski’s bunch as they proved to be the best the AFL had to offer all season long!!!

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Winners Edge

Braves/Phillies Over 9 , 4 units ( total of week)

Stl Cardinals + 115 , 2 units

NY Yankees + 105 , 2 units

TB D-Rays RL even , 1 unit

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Yankee Capper

2 Units - Cleveland Indians -110

2 Units - Padres/Pirates Over 10.5

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Stephen Nover

Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds

Colorado is heating up, winning seven of its last eight games. But my prejudice against Jorge De La Rosa puts me on the Reds.

I consider De La Rosa one of the worst starters in the Majors. A 6.71 ERA is evidence of that. He has a ghastly 14.73 career ERA versus the Reds in seven appearances.

Reds starter Homer Bailey, once the team's top pitching prospect , has started slow. But Bailey has looked better in his last couple of starts after making adjustments in the minors. He's yielded five earned runs in 12 innings with just two walks during his past two big league starts.

Cincinnati's bullpen has quietly been effective with a 2.37 ERA in its last 25 games. Thursday's day off provided needed rest.

Keep in mind, too, that the Rockies have dropped 36 of their 51 away contests this season. 

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Ben Burns

Rays (RL) @ Royals (RL)
PICK: Royals (RL)

The Rays are heavily favored here, largely due to their superior overall record and due to the fact that it's Kazmir vs. Hochevar on the mound. However, the Rays' success has come in Florida and the same can be said for Kazmir. A closer look shows that the Royals home record (23-28) is very similar to the Rays' road record of 20-26. Additionally, Kazmir is 3-4 with a 4.10 ERA on the road while Hochevar is 4-3 with a 4.41 ERA at home. It's also worth noting that the Rays are 0-2 in Kazmir's two career road starts vs. the Royals, losing those games by a combined score of 19-9. Kazmir gave up nine runs (and eight walks!) in just nine innings in those two starts, for an ugly 9.00 ERA. Despite dropping a close one yesterday, the Royals have still won three of the last four series meetings here. Note that four of the last five meetings here have been decided by two runs or less, including a pair of one run games. In other words, this should be a much more evenly matched contest than the line is indicating. I believe that gives us solid value with the home underdog, particularly on the run-line, where we can get an extra +1.5 runs for a very attractive price. With the Royals an impressive 8-2 their last 10 games against southpaw starter, let's take a shot with KC +1.5 runs.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Dave Malinsky

Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays 4*

When a team going bad suffers the kind of losses that the Mariners have in their last two games, both defeats coming in extra innings, it can leave them in a most fragile state. We believe that it is something that we can take advantage of here. Of course the bottom line is that there is not really anything there to begin with, which is how you get to be 38-64 overall and 18-32 on the road, but the current 0-6 slide may have them gutted in terms of their psyche for this one, especially in a quick night-to-day turnaround that will start at 10:07 AM on their body clocks.

That body clock issue is not just for the starting lineup, but also creates an issue for R.A. Dickey as well. While knuckle-ballers have a better chance to be successful on three days rest than conventional pitchers, a guy that does not have all that much experience as a Major League starter can be most vulnerable when forced into that role. But it gets magnified here - after throwing 105 pitches vs. Boston on Tuesday he is not really even at three full days, with this game beginning just 61 hours since he last threw a pitch. And note that he is not a pure knuckle-ball pitcher, having to resort to fastballs on many occasions in order to find the strike zone. That pitch will be his real problem this afternoon.

Some of the value we get here stems from the 0-1/11.05 that David Purcey shows in the pitching forms, but that is not who he is. the 6-5/235 left-hander was twice called up for starts because of Toronto injuries, and it led to a couple of rough outings for a talented prospect. But since that last Major League start on May 16th he has had a chance to establish his rhythm, and it has been a sparkling 2.69 at AAA this season, with an outstanding ratio of 121 strikeouts vs. only 97 hits allowed. Now he will be working on schedule, and having allowed just three runs over 20 innings of his last three starts, with 21 strikeouts vs. only one walk allowed, this can be considered his “real” debut, against a punchless opponent that will struggle in heir first look against him. And behind Purcey is a team that has won four straight to climb over .500, and will relish the chance to beat up on this class and move a step closer to playoff contention.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Larry Ness

Houston Astros @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers' home/away dichotomy these last two seasons ('06 and '07) has been quite dramatic. Milwaukee's two-year mark has them 99-63 (plus-$1,950) at home but a pathetic 59-103 (minus-$3,818) on the road! However, the Brewers own MLB's best road record since June 11, going 14-5. The team returned home to Miller Park last night, on a seven-game road winning streak but promptly lost to the "sad-sack" Astros, 3-1. Go figure? That being said, look for a "return to form" here for the Brewers and expect them to pick up a win tonight at Miller Park. I'm not sure any pitcher has followed this team's home and away trends any more closely than Dave Bush, who is tonight's starter. Bush went 12-11 in '06 and 12-10 in '07 and look at his home and away breakdowns in all games. The Brewers went 12-3 (3.23 ERA) in his home starts in '06 and 4-13 (5.38) in his road starts. Last year it was 8-7 (4.39) in his home starts and 6-10 (6.14) in his road starts. He enters this game 5-8 with a 4.39 ERA on the season but again, look at his home and away breakdowns. Once again he's had all sorts of trouble on the road (team is 1-7 and his ERA is 7.11) but been very good at home (team is 7-2 with a 2.49 ERA). Bush comes in pitching very well, having gone 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA over his last five starts (team is 4-1), with three coming at home and two on the road. A closer look at his home numbers reveal that he opened the '08 season with two poor home outings but over his last seven starts, has allowed only nine ERs in 50 innings for a 1.62 ERA. Bush should have plenty of confidence heading into this game (his first start since the break), as he's 5-1 with a 3.22 ERA in 11 career appearances against Houston (nine starts).The last-place Astros (47-55) counter with Brandon Backe (6-10 with a 4.79 ERA), who like Bush, has done well at home while struggling on the road in his career. However, he's got a 5.03 home ERA in '08 (team is 5-4 in his starts) and while his road ERA is somewhat lower (4.59), he's still not winning away from home (team is 3-9 in his 12 road starts). Go with the Brewers in this one.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

MR A's

Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles

The hot Angels have won eight of their last nine games and have beaten the struggling Orioles in 13 of the last 17 meetings, including five of the last seven in Baltimore.

Los Angeles' Jon Garland (8-6, 4.12 ERA) is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 5-2 with a 4.50 ERA in nine career starts against the Orioles.

Baltimore's Radhames Liz (4-2, 7.19 ERA) is 1-2 with a monster 11.57 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander will make his first career start versus Los Angeles.

Let's ride the the Angels again tonight. The Orioles have dropped five of their last 6 games at home, including Friday's, 6-5 defeat against the Angels at Oriole Park and have lost five straight against Los Angeles' right-hander Jon Garland. The LA Angels have won 16 of their last 23 games away from home, impressive 32-18 road record this season.

Los Angeles Angels -120

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

GINA

Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles has won nine of the last 10 meetings versus Washington and the last five at Dodger Stadium.

Washington will send Odalis Perez (3-7, 3.99) to the hill. The lefthander is 1-2 with a 5.38 ERA in his last three starts and is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts against the Dodgers, but Perez hasn't faced them since 2001. Los Angeles counters with Derek Lowe (7-8, 3.97 ERA). The right-hander is 4-0 with a 3.24 ERA in four career starts against the Nationals.

Go with the Dodgers at home against the limp Nationals. Washington is the worst team in baseball with a 38-65 season record and has lost 10 of their last 12 road games.

Los Angeles Dodgers -210

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
44209
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
274288
Average Posts Per Hour:
3.5
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3444
Newest User:
Laurrie Branum
Members Online:
0
Guests Online:
2243

Online: 
There are no members online

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com