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STU FINER

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles

We do not like the way the Detroit Tigers finished up before the break folks.  There was a time where the Tigers had finally got it going.  They came all the way back to become .500 and above.  You have to remember the Tigers started out atrocious but as we said they played good ball for a long time.

The Tigers had a very important home series to close out the break.  They had a four game set against the Twins.  This wasn’t just any four game series folks.  This was a series against a rival that they are chasing.  They needed this series.  At worst they needed a home split and get out of there.

Detroit lost the series in tough fashion.  The Tigers lost the first three games all by one run.  The Twins bull-pen and late clutch hitting was very evident in this series.

The Baltimore Orioles are a very good home baseball team folks.  The Orioles are 25-16 in their building and are rested and ready to go.  Look for the Tigers to still stumble and the Orioles to still surprise.

Baltimore Orioles (-)


National League    


New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds

The Mets are one of the few teams that didn’t want to have a break.  Most teams are looking forward to getting to the all-star break; the Mets on the other hand wished they played another week.  In all-star interviews Wagner and Wright both said that they wished the all-star break would come next week.

The reason why the Mets wanted to continue on was their fantastic play the last week plus.  This was a team that was sputtering around all season.  They had to fire their manager and their pitching coach but they finally got their act together.  Tonight is a different story though.

The Mets have won nine straight, but six of those nine came at home against two teams that are a combined 25 games under .500 (Rockies and Giants).  Johnny Cueto is the real deal and at home the Reds will get the job done.  Santana gives up the gopher ball and in this park you don’t need much to put it out.  Take the Reds, this line is too good to pass up.

Cincinnati Reds (+)


San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals

It is time for the clock to strike midnight for Kyle Lohse folks.  This is a pitcher that hasn’t won more than ten games in five years folks.  For his career heading in to this season Kyle is eleven games under .500.  He has never had an ERA in the three’s in his life.  In fact he has had ERA’s closer to 5.00 than his current mark this season.

Kyle has now pitched 120 innings this season, it is that time of the year where those innings take their toll.  Last season Kyle pitched just 131 innings, the season prior Kyle only pitched sixty one.  Kyle has not pitched over the 175 inning mark since 2005 when he was a member of the Minnesota Twins.

Jake Peavy has been the lone bright spot on this pitching staff.  This guy is still a guy that you can count on each and every time out there.  Jake will pick up right where he left off.  Peavy allowed just seven hits in his last two starts and no earned runs.  Jake will improve his mark to 8-5 this season.  The Padres will get the first game back.

San Diego Padres (+)

Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies

Ubaldo Jimenez goes tonight the Rockies and he has been there second best pitcher by far.  Aarron Cook is the Rockies ace, as we saw him throw very well in the All-Star game last night and even get out of a bases load jam.  Ubaldo actually has better stuff than Mr. Cook.

Jimenez has been throwing the ball very well in his last few starts.  We feel that this break will only be a shot in the arm for Ubaldo.  He has allowed a total of just four runs in his last three starts, all of which have been quality.

Jimenez has an ERA all the way down to the low four’s.  Sure his record is bad but the Rockies had a first half to forget.  They still play decent at home and Jimenez still loves his home mound.  Ubaldo is 3-2 at home with an ERA of just 2.67.  Look for the Rockies to get the job done here tonight at home.

Colorado Rockies (-)

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Matty O'Shea

COL -1.5 (+150) vs PIT

Believe it or not, the defending National League champion Rockies still have an outside shot to win the NL West despite a very disappointing first half of the season.  Colorado now has a clean slate to work with heading into the second half, and I think this team will start a positive run right away against the Pirates in the opener of a four-game series.  Pittsburgh starting pitcher Paul Maholm has been hot lately, but the southpaw is just 1-4 in eight road starts with a 4.81 ERA.  The Rockies are hitting .303 against lefties at home and will send righty Ubaldo Jimenez to the mound in search of his third straight home win.  Jimenez has seen his teammates win his last two home starts by a combined score of 15-2, and he has allowed just two runs in 14.1 innings of work during that stretch.  In addition, 11 of Colorado's last 14 home wins have been decided by two runs or more.  Take a shot with the Rox on the runline here as my Single Dime MLB Value Play O' the Day.

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DUNKEL

The Mets start the second half with a nine-game winning streak, but come into Cincinnati with just a 4-7 record as a road favorite between -125 and -150.  The Reds are the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has Cincinnati favored straight up by 1/2 a run.  Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+135).  Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, JULY 17

Game 951-952: NY Mets at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 16.512; Cincinnati (Cueto) 16.641
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+135); Over


Game 953-954: San Diego at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Peavy) 14.754; St. Louis (Lohse) 14.215
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-105); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-105); Under


Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.562; Colorado (Jimenez) 13.487
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Over


Game 957-958: Detroit at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Rogers) 15.045; Baltimore (Olson) 16.122
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Over

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Jeff Scott Sports

2 UNIT PLAY

BALTIMORE/ Detroit Over 10

The Over is 9-3-1 in Rogers' last 13 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 9-1-1 in his last 11 starts as a road favorite, while the Over is 20-8-3 in Orioles last 31 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 5-1-1 in Olsons last 7 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Here another little trend for you: The Over is 9-1-1 in the last 11 game 1's on a series for Baltimore, with the average total runs being 12 rpg, including a 4-0 Over mark in their last 4 home series openers, with the total runs scored there being 12.8 rpg. Only one of those 11 in this trend has failed to score 10 runs or more. Baltimore comes in having scored 5.4 rpg in their last 7 games, but the have given up 7.1 rpg over that same stretch. The Orioles also put 5.1 rpg on the board at home and 5 rpg at night. THey will be taking on an inconsistent Kenny Rogers, who has a 4.63 ERA overall, including a 4.75 ERA on the road and a 4.36 ERA at night, with those night games averaging 10.6 rpg. Kenny also has a 5.18 career era vs the O's, including a 5.23 ERA in his last 5 trips to Baltimore. He will be opposed by a struggling Garrett Olson, who comes in with a 5.65 ERA overall, including a 4.28 ERA at home and a 6.55 ERA at night, plus he has really been bad in his last 6 starts, posting a 1.86 WHIP and an 8.38 ERA. Not very good numbers when facing a Detroit squad that scores 5.1 rpg, hits .284 and has a .355 OBP vs lefty starters on the year. Detroit also hits .286 and puts 5.5 rpg on the board at night. The Tigers do struggle to score on the road, but they are swinging the bat well right now, plus they get Ordonez back for this one, so I look for them to hit Olsen hard and get 5 or 6 runs off of him before he turn the ball over to a struggling pen, while the resurgent Orioles offense should be able to get enough off of Kenny, before they turn the ball over to a bullpen that has a 4.72 ERA on the road. Should be a fun one with alot of runs.

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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

UNDER Pirates/Rockies

Pat Maholm of the Pirates and Ubaldo Jimenez of the Rockies are both in solid current form and conditions are favorable for them to continue their solid runs on Thursday night. With some rain cooled air in the area, some favorable pitching conditions could be on tap at Coors Field tonight. However, its not as if these two hurlers need much help from the weather tonight. Colorados Jimenez is 3-3 in his last seven starts but note the fantastic 2.28 ERA. Also, the Rockies right-hander has thrived at home this season as hes 3-2 at Coors Field with a 2.67 ERA and an amazing .214 BAA. Those are gaudy numbers for pitching in thin air of Colorado and Jimenez was also rock solid in his only career start against the Pirates as he allowed just one earned run in seven innings against Pittsburgh. The key to this under tonight is that Jimenez is likely to be matched pitch for pitch by Mahlom of Pittsburgh! The Pirates southpaw is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts and he hasnt lost in over two months! Also, the Pirates bullpen struggles are not a big concern here because Maholm is the workhorse of the Pittsburgh rotation and he has gone eight innings in each of his last two starts. The last time Maholm started a game at Coors Field he allowed just one run in seven innings in a solid 5-1 win last August. The Rockies continue to be ravaged by injuries and they have scored a TOTAL of just two runs in their last four games! As for the Pirates, they have scored just one run in two of their last three road games. They are unlikely to enjoy much success against Jimenez at Coors Field, where he thrives, and this one has Pitchers Duel written all over it. Play the UNDER in the Pirates/Rockies match-up on Thursday night at Coors Field.

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John Ryan

NY Mets at Cincinnati Reds

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Reds – Beginning of another Mets collapse? Never sure of that, but Santana has pitched consistently well and the only reason he has a mediocre 8-7 record is due to the lack of run support. That lack of offense is expected to continue as the AiS projects that Reds starter Cueto will go 6 or more innings. Should this occur the Reds then have a 90% probability of winning the game. Cueto has gone a minimum of 6.3 IP in each of his last 3 starts and it stand to reason that he will have success against the Mets given the All-Star break rest. Another problem with Santana is that he is just not keeping the ball down in the zone and not getting enough ground ball outs. He has yielded 14 home runs this season, which is far better than the 33 he gave up all of last season. Still, for a lights out ace, this far too many home runs. He ranks 250th all pitchers (starters and relievers) in GB/FB ratio at 1.30. Reds rank 7th in baseball with 108 home runs.

Play on: Cincinnati

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Vegas Experts

Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies

Rockies’ starter Ubaldo Jiminez has been particularly sharp of late (1.86 ERA L3 starts), particularly at home where he’s won his last two by a combined 15-2 margin. He’ll be countered by lefty Paul Maholm and the good news there for Colorado fans is that their team averages a healthy 5.2 runs/game vs. southpaws. Pittsburgh is an atrocious 4-22 on the road after giving up 9+ runs in their last game.

Play on: Colorado

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Scott Rickenbach

Cincinnati Reds Run Line +1.5 runs -125 vs New York Mets @ 7:10 ET – Cueto vs Santana – This is a Free Pick opinion play only, not a star rated play. However, that is not to say that there is not value with the Reds on the run line in this situation! To be able to get the Reds at home with Johnny Cueto on the mound and to be able to lay very small juice and yet still cash a ticket with a one-run loss is quite a value! Yes, the Mets have been one of the hottest teams in the league recently but let’s not overlook what the Reds have done recently too. Also, with a 9-game winning streak underway, the last thing the Mets needed was the All Star break. However, for the Reds, after a tight 3-2 loss to the Brewers on Sunday, the All Star festivities provided a welcome break. Keep in mind that, before the loss to Milwaukee, Cincinnati had gone 7-2 in their last 9 games and they had averaged over 6 runs per game in their seven wins! Indeed they’ve been swinging the bats quite well and this is giving them confidence heading into this match-up with Johan Santana.

Even though Santana got the win earlier this season against the Reds he did allow ten hits in his six innings of work. He certainly was not unhittable and, in fact, Cincinnati has hit .339 against him in Santana’s three career appearances against the Reds. Also note that Santana has allowed 33 hits in his last 27 innings on the road and he’s facing the Reds at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark this evening. Note that playing the Reds +1.5 runs in their last 15 games would have netted a cool 12-3 record! In other words, Cincinnati has been avoiding the blowout losses recently and we certainly expect that to continue tonight! Note that, as hot as the Mets have been, playing New York at -1.5 runs in each of their last 17 games would have only netted you a 10-7 record.

With Cueto on the mound, an outright upset for the Reds is certainly possible here and it is also quite unlikely that the Mets, if they do win, will be able to create any kind of separation. Cueto struggled in his only start against the Mets but that was in New York. Note that in Cincinnati, the Reds right-hander is 5-3 and his 4.08 ERA at home is quite deceiving as teams are hitting just .226 against him at Great American Ballpark! Cueto has allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his ten starts at home! Behind another strong start from Cueto, this one turns into a true pitchers duel and that means there is great value with the Reds +1.5 runs here. Play Cincinnati on the run line.

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SAPKOWSKI

Premium
pass

Free picks
PIT Pirates under 9.5
DET Tigers

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TONY KARPINSKI

San Diego Padres vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals   

Kyle Lohse and Jake Peavy may not have been All-Stars, but they've certainly pitched that way of late. The two will start opposite each other Thursday night when the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres open a four-game series at Bush Stadium. Lohse (11-2, 3.39 ERA) has been one of baseball's biggest surprises, going 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA in his last 10 starts with the Cardinals (53-43) winning nine of those games. I like STL at home behind the surprising Lohse on the bump. Play on the St Louis Cards 

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VEGAS STEAMLINE

DETROIT/BALTIMORE OVER


RAZOR SHARP

NY METS/CINCINNATI UNDER


TOTALS 4 U

DETROIT/BALTIMORE OVER 10


#1 SPORTS

DETROIT/BALTIMORE OVER 10


ARTHUR RALPH

Cinci Reds


MIKE WYNN

Detroit/Baltimore Under 10


COMPUTER SPORTS

ST.LOUIS CARDS


HUDDLE UP

NY/Cincinnati under 8

BIG TIME SPORTS

ROCKIES / METS OVER 9


THE SCOUT

Detroit -110


MIGHTY QUINN

Padres


YOU WIN NOW 

Detroit


ARMVIN SPORTS   

PIRATES   

SHARP SPORTS ADVISORS

CARDINALS   


Prime Sports Picks

New York Mets


VERNON CROY

Mets


Insider Sports Report

Pittsburgh/Colorado UNDER 9.5


JOE WIZ

METS


SOUTHSIDE SPORTS

ST. LOUIS


ROCCO SPACAMURO

100* Rockies -136


JACK CLAYTON

Tigers

CAPPERS ACCESS

Tigers
Cardinals


MIKE NERI   

Cards -120 


PAUL LEINER

10* Cardinals -110


DONALD TRAN

New York Mets -140


Jennifer Barry

Rockies -140


Chad Jordan

NY Mets/Cincinnati Under 8


PlayByPlayInc.

ORIOLES   


HOT LOCK SPORTS

Pirates +134


FLORIDA BOOKY BUSTERS   

Detroit/Baltimore Over 10 


Online Sports Winners 

Colorado 


SILVER KEY PLAY

BALTIMORE

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Scott Spreitzer

Game: Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Over

I'm playing the Over in Thursday's contest between the Tigers and Orioles. Garrett Olson may own a 6-4 record entering tonight's tilt, but he's been rocked for a 6.30 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, and .299 BAA in his 21 starts over the last two seasons. I don't expect those numbers to get any better against the Tiger lineup. Detroit is clocking southpaws, going 7-1 in road night games, scoring an average of 6.8 runs per game. But Baltimore's offense is also in a strong spot tonight. They're scoring 5.8 runs per game in home night action against lefties, and face a struggling Kenny Rogers. The veteran lefty has allowed 15 earned runs and 41 base runners in his last four starts, spanning 26 innings. That's a 5.19 ERA & 1.58 WHIP. Rogers has started 15 road games going back to last season and he's been rocked for a 5.07 ERA in those outings. We have two struggling pitchers and two lineups that do their best work in tonight's situation. I'm playing the contest to sail OVER the posted total.

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Brian Hansen

Game: Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers will take advantage of an Orioles club that has lost seven of their last eight games. Even though Baltimore has been hitting the ball quite well their pitching staff can’t stop anyone. With Garrett Olson on the mound that is unlikely to change today. The Orioles left-hander is 1-3 with an 8.68 ERA in his last six starts. Olson will also have to contend with a Tigers club that, when it comes to hitting left-handers, is one of the top hitting teams in the league! Want more? The Orioles sticks could struggle tonight. They’ll be dealing with Kenny Rogers of the Tigers and he’s tough on left-handed batters. Baltimore relies on some key left-handed sticks for offensive production and they could be neutralized tonight. Also, the Tigers have defeated the Orioles five straight times and Baltimore hasn’t faced Rogers in three years. This is a big edge for Rogers as his offerings could prove a little tough for the Orioles in the early innings. By the time Baltimore “catches up” with Rogers they will already be down big on the scoreboard. The result should be a road rout for the Tigers and that’s why this is my Member Pick on Thursday.

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Larry Ness

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies PM
Prediction: Colorado Rockies

The Rockies entered the second half of last season in fourth-place in the NL West but a terrific second-half charge got them into a one-game playoff with the Padres for the wild card spot. The Rockies won that playoff in dramatic fashion and rode the momentum of that win all the way to the World Series. While Colorado is also in fourth-place coming out of the break this year, things are MUCH different. The Rockies were a respectable 44-44 (5 1/2 games behind the division-leading Padres) last year but this year are a dismal 39-57 (minus-$1,868) coming out of the break (8 1/2 games behind the division-leading D'backs), a far cry from the team that wound up as MLB's biggest "money-maker" in '07 (plus-$2,466). Colorado enters tonight's game on a four-game losing streak but the team has won 13 of its last 20 home games. That spells good news vs the poor-traveling Pirates, who one again are struggling away from Pittsburgh. The Pirates entered this season with a 121-203 (.373) road mark the previous four seasons and through the All Star break are on pace to do even worse this year, having gone 15-28 (.349) on the road so far. Paul Maholm gets the start for Pittsburgh and the lefty has had all sorts of trouble on the road in his short career. The Pirates went 5-10 in his road starts in 2006 (6.25 ERA), 5-9 in 2007 (6.14 ERA) and so far in '08 are 2-6 (4.81 ERA). Pitching for the Rockies is Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 4-9 with a 4.22 ERA on the season. However, after beginning the year 1-6 with a 5.43 ERA, he's gone 3-3 with a 2.28 ERA in his last seven starts. Breaking his season's stats down home and away show he's 1-7 with a 5.82 ERA in 11 road starts (team is 1-10) but 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA in nine starts at home (team is 5-4). The Rockies are 4-1 over his last five home starts, as he's posted a 2.23 ERA (just eight ERs over 32.1 innings). Take the Rockies.

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WUNDERDOG

San Diego at St. Louis
Pick: Game Total OVER 7.5

While he has dominated at home, Jake Peavy has been less-than average on the road where he has pitched to a 4.45 ERA. Peavy is also backed by a pen that has served up 2.7 additional runs per game. The Pads are 11-2 OVER on the road the past three seasons vs. winning teams when starting Peavy. A full 60% of Kyle Lohse's pitched games have exceeded this total. The OVER gets the call in this one.


Los Angeles at Phoenix
Pick: UNDER 176

Since their opener, Los Angeles has not seen a game reach this many points except in an OT game with Connecticut, and that includes two games played vs. Phoenix. Phoenix went through a very explosive offensive stretch in the middle of the season where they averaged 94 a game, but has since quieted down some producing just 87 points per game. The Sparks have held Phoenix below those numbers the last two times they have met, and seem to have found a way to slow this team down. The odds makers are still cranking out totals based on the 94 ppg stretch that Phoenix had, yet the numbers aren't as good lately, so we like the UNDER in this one.

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SPORTS ADVISORS

NATIONAL LEAGUE

N.Y. Mets (51-44) at Cincinnati (46-50)

The red-hot Mets look to keep rolling as they open the second half of the season by sending ace Johan Santana (8-7, 2.84 ERA) to the hill at Great American Ball Park against the Reds. New York won nine straight games heading into the All-Star break, scoring five or more runs in six of those games while allowing three runs or less seven times. The Mets swept a three-game home set from the Rockies last weekend, allowing just one run in the series and closing it out with Sunday’s 7-0 Sunday.

New York is 10-1 in its last 11 games, climbing back into the N.L. East race after firing manager Willie Randolph and replacing him with Jerry Manuel. The Mets are on further runs of 7-0 against losing teams, 46-21 after an off day and 6-2 behind Santana in series openers. On the flip side, they are 1-6 in Santana’s last seven starts overall and 0-4 in his last four road outings.

Cincinnati, which will counter with rookie right-hander Johnny Cueto (7-9, 4.67), has won seven of its last 10 games and is 5-0 in its last five against the N.L. East, 12-4 in its last 16 at home against winning teams, 8-3 in its last 11 against left-handers and 5-1 behind Cueto in series openers. However, the Reds are 2-6 in their last eight games after an off day.

This is the second series this season between these two teams. The Mets took two of three at Shea Stadium in May and are 6-2 in the last eight clashes.

Santana is 1-4 with a pair of no-decisions in his last seven outings, despite giving up just 11 earned runs over 45 innings (2.20 ERA) in that stretch. However, in his most recent outing on July 9 against San Francisco, he yielded no runs on three hits in five innings in a 5-0 home victory, Santana’s first win since June 1. During Santana’s run of bad luck, he’s still pitched at least six innings in 12 of 13 starts, with the win over the Giants – which was interrupted by a rain delay in the sixth inning – being the lone exception.

Cueto had a two-game win streak snapped July 9 on the road against the Chicago Cubs, allowing five runs (four earned) on eight hits in 6 2/3 innings in a 5-1 setback. The 22-year-old is 5-5 in his last 10 starts, after starting the season 2-4 with three no-decisions in his first nine. The Reds are 5-2 in Cueto’s last seven starts at home.

Santana is 4-4 with a 3.01 ERA in 10 road starts this year, and he’s 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against the Reds. On May 10, he gave up 10 hits but just three runs in six innings of a 12-6 home victory over Cincy. Meanwhile, Cueto is 5-3 with a 4.08 ERA in 10 home starts this year, and in his lone career start against the Mets on May 11, he gave up six runs on eight hits over 4 2/3 innings of an 8-3 road loss.

The the under is on streaks of 5-1 for the Mets overall, 6-1-3 for Santana overall, 5-0 with Cueto starting, 8-2 when Cueto goes at home and 7-3 in Cincy’s last 10 series openers.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

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BEN BURNS

Mets (RL) @ Reds (RL)
PICK: Reds (RL)

It's true that the Mets were red hot entering the All Star Break. However, the Reds were also quietly playing very well before the break. In fact, they had won seven of their previous 10 games, most recently losing by a single run vs. Sabathia at Milwaukee. The Reds are back home this evening and I feel that they offer us excellent value, particularly vs. the run-line, where we're being given an extra 1.5 runs to work with.

Santana has started to round into form lately and is coming off a well-pitched game vs. the Giants. That was at home though and the Mets haven't fared very well in his recent starts away from Shea Stadium. In fact, they're 0-4 his last four road outings. It's also worth noting that Santana has a poor 5.56 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in two career starts vs. the Reds.

Cueto gets the call for Cincinnati and he's also been solid recently. In his last three starts, he's gone 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA, averaging nearly seven innings per start. For the season, he's 5-3 at home (Reds are 6-4) with a respectable 4.08 ERA and 1.203 WHIP. In fact, he's allowed three earned runs or less in six of his last starts here.

As a team, the Reds are 26-19 at home. They're also 5-2 their last seven games against southpaw starters, with the lone two losses both coming by a single run. Consider a play on CINCINNATI at +1.5 runs.

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WILD BILL

Mets -140 (5 units)
Over 8 Mets-Reds (5 units)
Rockies -135 (5 units)
Tigers +100 (5 units)

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Oscarxena Sports

San Diego -1.05 (3 Unit Play)

I missed out on the Padres as an underdog but I still like them in this spot tonight. San Diego has been a very disappointing team this year but because they play in the weak NL West if they were to get hot they could make a run at a playoff spot although that would be highly unlikely. However, all we need is for them to win tonight and I think we have the right pitcher on the mound to do it in Jake Peavy. Peavy on the year has a 2.47 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP and although his numbers are elevated on the road it was due to a bad start or two. Peavy has pitched well when starting against St. Louis as he is 3-2 with a 2.89 ERA and he has won three straight appearances against them. He will be opposed on the hill by surprising Kyle Lohse who has been extremely hot lately and is 11-2 on the year but he is 0-2 with a 7.05 ERA in his career against San Diego. Getting Peavy at a low price like this against Lohse is a bargain in my book and I will take the lowly Padres to get a road win to get the second half started right.


Cincinnati +1.31 (3 Unit Play)

The Reds have been playing well at home all year as they are 26-19 and have actually fared well against left handed starting pitching as they are 18-17 so far this year. They will take on one of the toughest left handers tonight in Johan Santana and the red hot Mets. Santana has been a victim of a lack of run support recently but was able to finally break his losing streak with a win against the Giants in his last start. Santana hasn't really pitched great against Cincinnati in his career as he is 1-0 but has a 5.40 ERA in three career games. The Reds will have rookie Johnny Cueto on the hill and after going through a rough patch he has settled in nicely as he has allowed only seven earned runs in his last three starts which equaled 20 innings pitched. The Mets have went 23-26 so far on the road this year and have a losing record against right handed starting pitching at 32-34 and while it is tough to go against a team as hot as they are right now I think the Reds are worth a look tonight.

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Re: THURSDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Vegas Insider Capping

5* St Louis -105

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