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LT Profits

Cleveland Indians @ Los Angeles Dodgers Over 8.0

C.C. Sabathia of the Cleveland Indians has had his troubles on the road lately, while Chan Ho Park is making just his second start of the year for the Los Angeles Dodgers and will no doubt be on a pitch count, so we look for a higher scoring contest than many others expect.

Sabathia is the reining Cy Young Award winner, but he got off to a dreadful start this season before finally appearing to get himself straightened out. However, while he looks to have regained his Cy Young form at home, his last two road starts leave much to be desired, as he allowed a total of nine runs and 20 baserunners in 14 innings. He is facing a Dodgers lineup that is hitting significantly better vs. left-handers (.280) than vs. right-handers (.257) this season.

Park is taking this spot start for the Dodgers after pitching out of the bullpen all season, save for his one other start when he went just four innings. That will probably be the game plan again tonight, but the problem may be that the bullpen may be a bit fatigued after LA was forced to use four relievers over five innings last night.

Thus, the Dodgers may give up a fee tack on runs late, and the Cleveland bullpen can be counted on to do the same considering that units ranks second to last in the Major Leagues with a 4.94 pen ERA, ahead of only Texas.

Pick: Indians/Dodgers Over 8

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BEN BURNS

New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Colorado Rockies

Pedro Martinez is obviously the bigger 'name' in this matchup. Pedro isn't the same pitcher that he used to be though. That's been particularly the case when he's been on the road. Indeed, in three road starts, Martinez has an awful 6.91 ERA and 1.745 WHIP, averaging less than five innings per start. Not surprisingly, the Mets lost two of those three games. Pedro's most recent road start came at pitcher-friendly Petco Park vs. the normally light-hitting Padres. One would have expected the former Cy Young award winner to thrive in those conditions. However, he gave up 10 hits and four runs, lasting just five innings. The Mets would lose by a score of 8-6. Jimenez hasn't had much luck in the win/loss category and it's true that he's had some control issues at times. However, his 'stuff' is very good and he's got a solid 3.14 ERA in seven home starts this season, averaging better than six innings per outing. In his last two starts, Jimenez has allowed just eight hits and two earned runs through 12 innings for a 1.50 ERA. He'll have the advantage of facing the Mets for the first time and I look for him to be "fired up" to face the (probable) future hall-of-famer. Even after yesterday's result, the Rockies are still above 500 at home (19-18) while the Mets are money-burning 16-22 (-8.4) on the road. Consider a play on COLORADO.

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DAVE MANLINSKY 5*

Florida Marlins @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Florida Marlins

The Marlins were able to out-play the Athletics in a Mark Hendrickson vs. Rich Harden setting on this field last night. That speaks volumes about what can happen as the quality of their starter is improved and there is a big drop on the Oakland side of the ledger. That gives us a bargain to work with in this one, and we will take advantage of it through a unique sequence.

Note what we man by “out-play” above. Florida came away with a much higher offensive rating in that loss, and when teams do that they are outstanding bounce-back plays when in the same series. The Marlins had 15 hits to just 10 for Oakland, with three different Florida players hitting home runs. The Marlins also drew three walks, while their pitching staff gave up only one, and they struck out three fewer times. But they left 12 runners on base, while Oakland was efficient at only stranding five, and that was the difference in what should have been an easy win for the road team. The fact that the A’s won, however, does mean something from a value standpoint here, and that works in our favor.

We do not think all that much of Dana Eveland. In 41 appearances over three seasons with the Brewers and Diamondbacks, including just six starts, he worked to a 2-4/7.55 tune, and neither franchise seemed to shed a tear after seeing him go. In an era in which left-handers get as many lives as cats, that tells us something. So while some may look at this 5-5/3.56 in the pitching forms and see someone that is getting the job done, we see a decline waiting to happen. In truth, it is already happening - over his last four starts he has lasted only 21.1 innings, allowing 24 hits and 18 walks, while also hitting a better. But Eveland has been able to roll the dice through that stretch, with only 13 runs scoring. When you strand 30 over 21.1 frames you are truly living on the edge, and you are also presenting the marketplace with an ERA that is not an accurate reflection at all of your form. His inability to eat innings in recent starts also creates late-game issues here. Huston Street threw 23 pitches over 1.1 ineffective innings last night and is a question mark. Andrew Brown got the win, but he needed 32 pitches over two full innings, only 17 of which found the strike zone, and will most likely be held out. Brad Zieglar, Alan Embree and Keith Foulke have all worked back-to-back games, making both their availability and their effectiveness and issue. And after not retiring any of the three batters he faced in his first game off of the DL last night, there are also questions about putting Santiago Casilla back into action.

That leaves the door wide open for Florida if Ricky Nolasco can produce, and while there are some positive elements to his recent resume, there is also a slight cloud that has us playing this sequence the way that we are. The good for Nolasco is that he is coming off of one of the best games of his career, working 8.2 innings and striking out 12 in a win at Tampa Bay. And he is also getting a chance to step way down in class here, with his last five starts on the road against those Rays, and also on the road vs. the Phillies, Mets and Braves, plus a home game vs. the Phillies. That is a tough cycle but he handled it well. The down-side? He threw a career-high 132 pitches at Tampa. That can take quite a toll on a pitcher the next time out, even with five days off in between. But it is not enough to keep us away at this favorable price, especially with the Florida bullpen being laid out much better for this setting (the Marlins had Thursday off, and closer Kevin Gregg did not work last night).

So here is how we play it - if Florida reaches four runs, against Eveland and the disheveled Oakland bullpen, we can not lose any money (based on the 8.5 Total). That is not a bad plateau to call for - the Marlins have scored at least four runs in 48 of 73 games, including an even better 25 of 36 on the road. By relying on their offense to do its part we have taken the one “wild card” element out of play - the chance of Nolasco struggling off of the high pitch count. If he pitches well and dominates the A’s, the underdog price that we get from the Side more than covers the vigorish on the Total. If he pitches poorly, it is difficult to lose the Over, based on the production level we expect from the Marlins. With this kind of safety net in play we can elevate both of our tickets to a 5* level, knowing that the overall risk is minimal.

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Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on NY Mets +103

The Mets took care of business in game 1 and they have the edge again tonight with Martinez facing off with Jimenez.  Martinez is looking more and more like his old self.  He allowed just 2 runs in six innings in his last start.  Jimenez is just 1-7 on the year and is 0-6 over his last 13 starts.  The Rockies are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the National League East, 0-8 in Jimenez's last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game, and  3-13 in Jimenez's last 16 starts.  The Mets have won 4 of 5 and are 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog.  We'll bet the Mets tonight.

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Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit  on Mariners/Braves OVER 9 Runs

These teams put 12 runs on the board yesterday with the Braves only contrubuting 2 runs.  We can count on Atlanta to hold up on its end of the bargain today but the Mariners are not going to go down easy, showing some fire after the firing of their manager.  WASHBURN is 15-3 OVER in road games in an inter-league game since 1997.  The Over is 7-0 in the Mariners last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record and 18-6-1 in the Mariners last 25 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.  The Over is also 6-1-1 in the Braves last 8 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  Pound the OVER.

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EZWINNERS

5 STAR: (927) FLORIDA (+$138) over Oakland
(Listing Nolasco and Eveland) (Risking $500 to win $690)

2 STAR: (905) CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+$110) over Chicago Cubs
(Listing Contreras only) (Risking $200 to win $220)

1 STAR: (914) PITTSBURGH (-$102) over Toronto
(Risking $102 to win $100)

1 STAR: (920) MINNESOTA (-$113) over Arizona
(Risking $113 to win $100)

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BIG AL

At 10:05pm our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the San Diego Padres. With the recent firings of Willie Randolph in New York and John McLaren in Seattle, one has to wonder if Jim Leyland's job is safe in Detroit. After all, the Tigers are the most under-achieving team in the American League, if not in the entire Majors. But Leyland is probably not going to lose his job after the team has gone 8-2 in its last ten games and is now only five games under .500. Veteran lefthander and tonight's Detroit starter Nate Robertson has had a very shaky season so far, but is pitching much better lately, going 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA in his last three starts. This seems like a perfect situation for Robertson to continue his good fortune as he gets to pitch in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the Majors against a team that is particularly weak on the offensive side of the ball, and which is batting a meager .235 against lefties so far in 2008. San Diego is 3-8 in its last 11 interleague games, while the Tigers are 35-11. Take the Tigers.

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ASA's MLB Interleague Game of the Year - 100% run!!

PLAY ON L.A. Angels

The Phillies own an explosive offense but for the most part they have been neutralized by left-handed pitching. Philadelphia is hitting just .254 against left-handers on the season and that average drops to just .237 in the last ten games. The Phillies have actually dropped seven of the past ten games and the Phillies have gone 2-5 in interleague games so far this season. Philadelphia has one of the better records in the National League but they have not been a dominant home team, just 22-16 overall.

The Angels are the best road team in baseball with a 22-12 record and Los Angeles has won eight of the past nine road series. The Angels continue to be a solid hitting team with a .296 team average in the last ten games and this is a favorable match-up Saturday. Philadelphia is 4-11 in Brett Myers starts this season and although his numbers have been better at home, they have not been good. Myers owns a 5.58 ERA on the season and walks have been a problem with a 1.54 WHIP. In nine of his 15 starts this season Myers has allowed four or more runs.

Joe Saunders has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season with a 10-3 record and a 3.06 ERA. Saunders has been brilliant on the road with a 1.77 ERA and the Angels are 5-1 in his road starts. Opposing batters are hitting just .227 against Saunders overall on the season. The Philadelphia bullpen may have a great ERA but the Angels have converted ten more saves than the Phillies and blown fewer save opportunities as the numbers are a bit misleading. Look for AL supremacy to continue and one of the AL?s best will deliver the victory tonight.

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Scott Spreitzer's Interleague LINE ERROR GAME OF THE YEAR!

My Line Error GOY is a play on the Twins with Blackburn over Arizona and Owings. Minnesota continues to punk the National League while Arizona continues to lead the NL West by default. Last night, the Twins smoked Randy Johnson behind the steady work of Scott Baker. Part-II goes on Saturday. Nick Blackburn has pitched extremely well in five of his last six starts. Tonight, he faces an Arizona squad that's been horrible in road games against righthanders. The Rattlers are 6-13 in this spot, scoring an average of just 3.7 runs per game. Meanwhile, Minnesota is shooting for their fifth straight win. And, in winning seven of their last nine games, the Twins have outscored the opposition by an average of 5.6 to 2! I expect more of the same with the Minnesota bats facing the struggling Micah Owings. The righty has allowed 21 earned runs and 38 base runners in his last four starts, covering just 19 innings of work. That's a miserable 9.95 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Arizona has been smacked for a total of 30 runs in those four outings. The linesmaker missed it when the opening line was set and I'll back the under-valued home team. The Twins are my Line Error Game of the Year.

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Louie  Mayo

MLB
(5*) Cleveland -145
(3*) White Sox -110
(1*) Phillies -135

WNBA
(50*) Houston +9

AFL
(50*) Colorado -7½

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GOLDEN CONTENDER

ON SATURDAY THE GUARANTEED AFTERNOON DELIGHT IS ON THE BOSTON REDSOX GAME 910 AT 3:55 EASTERN. WE ARE GOING TO PLAY THIS GAME ON THE RUN LINE -1.5 AT -125. THE REDSOX SEND DICE-K- TO THE MOUND TODAY KNOWING THEY ARE 6-0 IN HIS TEAM STARTS AT HOME. HIS ERA IS A FORMIDABLE 2.48 IN THESE STARTS. THE BOSOX STAND AT 22-6 AT HOME VS RIGHTYS AND 16-2 AS HOMEFAVS OF -150 OR MORE AND OF THE 16 WINS 14 HAVE BEEN BY 2 RUNS OR MORE,HENCE THE RUNLINE PLAY. THE REDSOX DONT LOSE OFTEN AT HOME,IN HOMERS FOLLOWING A HOME LOSS THEY ARE 5-1 SU. 4-0 IN GAME 2 OF A HOME SERIES IF THEY LOST GAME 1.THE CARDS SEND A ROOKIE PITCHER IN BOOGS MAKING JUST HIS SECOND ROAD START.THIS COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE RED BIRDS WHO MAY FIND THEMSELVES FAR BEHIND EARLY. BACK THE SOX IN THIS DAY TIME AFFAIR. this is my only day game, nice one going tonight, but this ones on me i played for 3 units at -125

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Terron Chapman

St Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Red Sox (
Play: St Louis Cardinals     

Dice-K Matsuzaka makes his return from the DL this afternoon as he and his Red Sox look to avoid back to back home losses to the St. Louis Cardinals. This will be his first start since suffering a shoulder injury in a game on May 27th.

But I would be a little skeptical of laying such a large number on a pitcher making his first start off the DL, especially with a shoulder injury. Before his injury Dice-K was lights out, pitching his way to an 8-0 record and 2.53 ERA. The Red Sox were as close to an automatic win as you can get, going 10-1 in his starts. But today against a pesky Cardinals team, we could see Dice-K struggle some. He himself stated he does not know how healthy he is." I don't know what percent I'm at, But I'm ready to pitch again" he said through a translator. In his lone rehab start at AAA Pawtucket Monday, he allowed two runs, three hits and struck out five in five innings pitched.

He will be opposed on the mound Saturday by young right hander Mitchell Boggs of the Cardinals who will be making his third start of the season and second on the road. Today's start will by far be his toughest test to date against a Red Sox team who will be amped up to avenge last night's loss. Boggs was impressive in his debut allowing four hits and two earned runs in five innings pitched of a 7-2 Cardinals win in Cincinnati. His home debut didn't go as smooth, allowing six hits and four earned runs, but he did not factor in the decision of a 7-6 Cardinals win over the Phillies. With those two test behind him, he now must prepare for another one, but we feel he is capable of keeping the Cardinals in the game and giving them a chance to steal another one in Fenway.

The Cardinals enjoyed the return of their cathcer Yadier Molina last night after missing the last few games due to a concussion. He didn't waste any time contributing, hitting a home run in the DH role last night. The Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 as a pup of +201 or more. The Redbirds are not your everyday +200 underdog. They are 18-8 against teams with a winning record on the season.Play on the St. Louis Cardinals for 1 unit.

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John Ryan

St Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox     

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Boston – Yes, everyone once in a blue moon the AiS identifies a prohibitive favorite to play as a 3* unit wager. STL bullpen is completely in disarray sporting an 8.10 ERA and a 1.057 WHIP over their last 7 games. Boston is batting 294 and scoring 5.9 RPG in 36 home games this season and I fully expect them to hammer Cardinals starter Mitchell Boggs. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 66-15 and has made 37.1 units since 2002. Play against NL road dogs with a money line of +150 or more with a good OBP of >=.340 and is now facing a very good AL starting pitcher sporting a WHIP<=1.300 in June games. Dice-K is undefeated on the season sporting a perfect 8-0 mark in 11 starts with a 2.53 ERA. He is also a perfect 3-0 with a 1.87 ERA in day starts. Boston is 25-6 making 16.4 units as a home favorite of -110 or higher; 16-2 making 12.2 units as a home favorite of -150 or higher. 

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Stevie Y

Arizona D-Backs vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins     

Were on the the ROCK HURLER Nick Blackburn. who is 5-4 on the year with a 3.87 ERA. However his WHIP is 1.41 and his batting average against on the year is .311. At home he is 3-2 with a 2.37 ERA, but again, his batting average against is .302. In his last 3 outings (the month of June) he has been terrible, allowing 20 hits and 4 walks in 14.1 innings, for an ERA of 6.28, a WHIP of 1.702 and a batting average against of .339.We're fading the Micah Owings. On the year he is 6-5 with a 5.18 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP and a .266 batting average against. But wait. the not so mighty Micah has allowed 24 hits and 6 walks in only 12.2 innings, for an ERA of 10.66, a WHIP of, get this, 2.459 and, hold on to your hats, a batting average against of .407. In domes this year he is 0-2 with an ERA of 11.88 and a batting average against of .410. Last year he was 1-4 in domes, with an ERA of "only" 5.49 and a batting average against of "only" .290. The Twins are batting .297 over the past 7 days,D'backs are 21-12 over after a loss (they lost last night) and they are 25-18 over against righties. The Twins are 13-6 over in the month of June, and they are 30-22 over against . OVER OVER OVER & THE TWINS CASH 2-0 

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Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections

5000* BASEBALL WINNER
KANSAS CITY with Meche -144

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ATS Arena Football Lock Club

4 units on Utah -4½ over Arizona

3 units on the OVER 112½ Grand Rapids/New Orleans

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WINNERS EDGE

Arizona D-Backs + 105 , 2 units

Florida Marlins + 135 , 2 units

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GamblersWorld

TIP OF THE DAY

San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals

The San Francisco Giants and the Kansas City Royals will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Kauffman Stadium. The Giants will pin their hopes on the pitching of righthander Kevin Correia in this game. Correia has a 1-4 record and a 5.17 ERA this season. Meanwhile, it'll be ace Gil Meche who starts for the Royals. Righthander Meche is 4-8 with a 5.02 ERA so far this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Royals listed as 150-moneyline favorites versus the Giants, while the game's total is sitting at 9. The Giants got down by four runs before coming back to thump the Royals 9-4 as a +110 underdog on Friday. The game's 13 runs sailed OVER the posted over/under (8.5). Ray Durham went 3-for-4 with three RBIs and two runs scored for the Giants. Matt Cain tossed eight innings for the win, allowing four runs off five hits. Jose Guillen drove in two runs in a losing effort for the Royals, who were favored at -125 in that game. Yashuhiko Yabuta gave up three runs in relief and was tagged with the loss. Team records: San Francisco: 32-42 SU Kansas City: 31-43 SU San Francisco most recently: When playing on Saturday are 6-4 Before playing Kansas City are 2-5 After playing Kansas City are 2-4 After a win are 5-5 Kansas City most recently: When playing on Saturday are 3-7 Before playing San Francisco are 4-3 After playing San Francisco are 3-3 After a loss are 5-5 A few trends to consider: San Francisco is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road San Francisco is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games Kansas City is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home

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SAPKOWSKI   

Premium
NY Yankees 1.5
BOS Red Sox 1.5

Free picks
MIN Twins
KC Royals
TEX Rangers

Tips
For Euro 2008 play Holland(as Draw no bet)

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LARRY NESS

Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

Even a blind squirrel can sometimes find an acorn. That pretty sums up the Astros' situation. Houston was 30-23 after a win in St Louis on May 27 but entered last night's game with the Rays in Tampa having lost eight straight and 17 of 20. The Rays opened the series as winners of 10 consecutives home series, while winning 25 of 29 games. So naturally, the Astros won 4-3. Is it possible for Houston to win two straight and end Tampa's streak of home series wins? Of course it is but I'm not 'biting.' I'm not sure what to make of Houston starter Wandy Rodriguez these days? He was dependable last year, posting a 2.94 ERA in his 15 home starts (Houston went 11-4) and a 6.37 ERA in 16 away starts (Houston went 5-11). However, he spent over a month on the DL this year after three April starts and since his return on May 28, has been confounding. He's made four starts, two home and two away. However, that 'consistency' we depended on last year is gone. In two of his starts, he's not allowed a single ER but one was at home and one was on the road. In his other two starts, he's allowed 12 hits and eight ERs in just 9.2 innings (7.45 ERA) but then again, one was at home and one was away. As John Travolta used to say on Welcome Back Kotter (wow am I dating myself!), "I'm so confused!" Now to Tampa's starter, Edwin Jackson. Jackson was a flop as a highly thought of prospect in the Dodgers organization and then last year went 5-15 with a 5.76 ERA for Tampa (team was 8-23 in his starts). However, he began the '08 season with some really excellent efforts, with a few 'clunkers' thrown in. Over his first 10 starts, he allowed six ERs twice and five ERs once (all three were Tampa losses) but in the other seven starts, allowed a grand total of just six ERs (1.31 ERA), with the Rays going 6-1. Recently though, the "old Jackson" is back, as he's 1-3 with a 7.04 ERA in his last four starts. so what to do? I'll 'throw out' the starting pitchers and take the team which is 25-5 in its last 30 home games over the team which has won only FOUR of its last 21 games. That means on the Rays.

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