MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

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The Experts Guaranteed Selections

ULTIMATE EXPERTS BASEBALL RUN LINE WINNER
Chicago White Sox w/Danks -1.5 +110

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John Ryan

Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays    
Play: Toronto Blue Jays     

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Toronto - Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of Play against all dogs with a money line of +150 or more that is a very bad AL offensive team scoring <=4.2 runs/game and with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities and is now facing a team with a very good bullpen sporting an ERA<=3.33. Fine tuning this system we get even stronger results that support the AiS grading. Play against road dogs with a money line of +150 or more that is a very poor AL offensive team scoring <=4.2 runs/game and with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season and is now facing a team with a good bullpen sporting an ERA<=3.75. Seattle has played poor and there isn’t any concrete evidence to expect significantly better performances. Seattle is just 8-25 (-20.0 Units) against the money line versus AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. Take Toronto.

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Larry Ness

Cincinnati Reds at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Florida Marlins

Two intriguing "storylines" collide tonight in Florida, when the Marlins host the Reds. Florida's overall play has to be considered a major surprise in '08. After finishing with a 71-91 mark in '07, the Marlins enter this game 34-28 and more impressively for our purposes, plus-$1,189 vs the moneyline, making them MLB's most profitable team. The Reds have played well at home (19-10) but own one of MLB's worst road records at 11-24, with the team's moneyline mark on the road sitting at minus-$1,288, which is worse than any team other than the Braves. The good news for Cincy tonight is that Edinson Volquez will get the start. Volquez was part of the Josh Hamilton trade and came to the Reds before the start of the season with a three-year mark of 3-11 with a 7.20 ERA in 20 appearances (17 starts) for the Rangers (2005-07). How could anyone have predicted his start in '08? Volquez enters tonight's game 8-2 with a 1.32 ERA in 13 appearances, including 12 starts (team is 10-2). He's NEVER allowed more than two ERs in ANY game, allowing one ER or less 10 of 12 times. In 75 innings of work, he's allowed just 49 hits. His pitching has been truly ASTOUNDING but it's hard for me to justify him being a favorite here, considering Cincy's horrific play on the road. The Marlins are a solid 20-13 at home this year, including 15-7 in home night games vs right-handed starters. Going for Florida is lefty Mark Hendrickson, who hardly has dominating numbers but is 7-3 with the team going 9-4 in his 13 starts this year, despite his 5.33 ERA. He's made six home starts, with the team going 6-1. He does own a home ERA of 4.62 but that's mostly because of two poor starts, Mar 31 vs the Mets and May 25 vs the Giants. In his other five home starts, he's got a 2.67 ERA, as the Marlins are 5-0. It's tough going against Volquez but it's not difficult going against the Reds in a road game, especially when you get to "take a price." I'll take the Marlins.

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Brian Hansen

Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

This favorite is a little pricier than I like to release as a guaranteed pick to my clients but there is still some value here and I use this as my member pick today with full confidence in that value! The Jays send Jesse Litsch to the mound and he's been rock solid this season, especially at home. The Blue Jays have also been one of the hottest teams in the league in recent weeks while the Mariners continue to struggle. Seattle is easily one of the worst road teams in baseball and they send a struggling Jerrod Washburn to the mound tonight. He should get clobbered while Litsch continues to dominate as his season is off to a fantastic start. The Blue Jays have scored 33 runs in their last six games and the Mariners struggling road ways continue to limit their offensive productivity. This one is all Jays as a result.

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Scott Rickenbach

San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals
PICK: San Francisco Giants

The Giants continue to roll right past the Nationals. They’ve won the first three games of this series by a combined score of 22-4. The Nats lineup has been devastated by injuries and inconsistency this season and that situation has certainly not improved of late. Conversely, the Giants offense continues to improve as they continue to look like a totally different lineup than the one we saw in April. They certainly should have no trouble with the offerings of Tyler Clippard. The former Yankees prospect is still a raw talent but his numbers in the majors with the Yanks shows that he still needs more seasoning. Also, the Nationals right-hander hasn’t been overly impressive with his numbers produced in the minors so far this season.

The Giants send Matt Cain to the mound and we don’t expect much success for the Nationals against him. Amazingly, the Nats have scored one run or less in six of their last eight games! This has included a number of shutouts and the Nats weren’t able to hit Cain well the last time they saw him either. The only game the Nationals have won this month came in extra innings and the Nationals slumping offense simply won’t be able to keep up with the Giants here. San Francisco has a number of hot batters in their lineup and they will stay hot just like the D.C. weather tonight. Play San Francisco on the money line as a regular selection.

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Info Plays

3* on San Francisco Giants -126

The Washington Nationals are without several key players right now, making it tough for this team to compete with anyone.  2B Ronny Belliard, 1B Nick Johnson, OF Austin Kearns, C Paul Lo Duca, and 3B Ryan Zimmerman are all starters that are missing playing time, including Monday’s game, with various injuries.  That make the Giants the play today.  We’ll Play Against - Home teams (WASHINGTON) - bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20)-NL, cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games.  This is a 45-26 ML System hitting 63.4% over the last 5 seasons.  The Nationals really struggle to score runs without 5 of their best players in the lineup.  Bet San Francisco on the road.

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Larry Ness 20* AL Game of the Month

LA Angels

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JEFFERSONSPORTS 3-1 yesterday
Hit 8 of last 9 plays
hit 5 straight mlb plays

nba 58% (153-113)
ncaa hoops 58% (161-120)
wnba 63% (5-3) 2-1 yest
mlb +2172 (playing 1 unit on every game, 100.00 per game)
ncaa foots 71% (27-11) bowl games (10-4) 71%
nhl 58% (51-37)

MLB EARLY RELEASE MONDAY
DETROIT-104
SAN FRANCISCO-124
CINCINATTI-128

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Mr. A's

Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers

The Indians have played awful away from home, just 4-13 in its last 17 games on the road, but they have been successful against the Tigers, winning seven of the last 10 games and six of the last nine at Comerica Park.

Cleveland's lefty Cliff Lee (9-1, 2.45 ERA), has not been profitable bet in the past against the Tigers. Lee is 3-6 with a 5.23 ERA in 14 career starts against the Tigers, 1-1 with a 3.53 ERA in six starts at Comerica Park and the Indians have lost his last 6 starts versus the Tigers, However, the Southpaw has been superb this season in contrast to a poor performance in 2007. Lee has won his last three and is 6-1 in his last seven starts on the road. Detroit’s lefthander Dontrelle Willis (0-0, 4.50), makes his first start since coming off the disabled list. He is 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two career starts against Cleveland.

Take the Indians with Cliff Lee at the wheel. Cleveland is 9-2 in Lee's last 11 starts and 6-1 in his last 7 on the road.

Cleveland Indians -105

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Frank Rosenthal

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
901 DBACKS-125 SB
903 REDS-130 SB
910 CWS-190 SB
912 JAYS-170 SB
913 TRIBE+105 SB
OVER 9.5 SB
916 ANGELS-145 SB

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Brandon Lang

5 Dime - Angels

Free Pick - Tigers

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Michael Cannon

15 Dime –

REDS (With Volquez as listed pitcher)

Take the Reds for the road win over the Marlins tonight.

Edinson Volquez will start for Cincinnati and you don’t need to say much more than that as to why the Reds are the play.

The right-hander has been spectacular for Cincinnati this season, posting an 8-2 record with a 1.32 ERA in 13 games. Volquez has allowed only 49 hits and three homeruns in 75 innings while striking out 91.

The Marlins will counter with Mark Hendrickson, who is 7-3 with a 5.33 ERA on the season. But the left-hander has been knocked around lately, as evidenced by his 11.66 ERA over his last three starts.

Hendrickson is also 0-2 with an 8.49 ERA in five career starts against the Reds.

Take Cincinnati for the road win.


5 Dime –

INDIANS (With Lee as listed pitcher)

Take the Indians for the road win over the Tigers tonight.

Cliff Lee will start for Cleveland and he’s gunning for his major league-leading 10th win. The left-hander had a spectacular start to the season, winning his first six games while posting a 0.81 ERA over that span. He’s won his last three starts, despite posting a 6.11 ERA.

The Tigers will counter will Dontrelle Willis, who is making his second start since coming off the DL on May 21. The D-Train just hasn’t been the same pitcher as he was a few years ago, and I don’t expect him to go deep into this game or to match Lee pitch-for-pitch.

Take the Indians as they grab the road win.

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Stu Feiner

10,000 Dime MLB Game of the Day: CINCINNATI REDS

Gotta ride with Cincinnati behind the arm of Edinson Volquez tonight in South Florida. He has been dynamite this season and he’ll pitch the Reds to victory in this series’ finale over the Marlins. Cincy is 10-2 when Volquez takes to the mound as he has a sparkling 1.00 ERA in six road starts this season. He has not given up more than two runs in any of his 12 starts and his 91 strikeouts and .188 opponent batting average leads the majors. He held these same Marlins to just one run in six innings back on May 13. Florida counters with Mark Hendrickson, who has an 11.66 ERA in his last three starts. He’s 0-2 with an 8.49 ERA in five career starts against the Reds. Cincy will score enough for Volquez tonight as the Reds take this one

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Josh Dean

Today we head to Gm 4 of this series between Florida and Cincinnati. The Reds took a beating the last two games with a walk off homer in Gm 2 and a beating in Gm 3. Event though the reds struggle on the road the are clearly the better team tonight as Florida is not as deep in the pen as the reds. Volquez has proven all year he's a solid performer and no doubt in my mind he's coming ready to play. Hendrickson putting up solid numbers this year but struggled his last couple starts boosting his ERA. Not only that, the pen for the Marlins can't/wont back him up tonight. Florida needs to score some runs tonight to beat the Reds and I just don't see that happening with Volquez on the mound. Play the Reds tonight fellas as your 1* bet.

Cinci -126 1*

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Ted Sevransky

The Tigers have been hammering lefties for much of the season, scoring 65 runs in their last eleven starts against southpaws. Detroit’s home/road offensive disparity is second to none in the big leagues this year, averaging 5.9 runs per game at Comerica Park, in sharp contrast to their 3.6 runs scored per game on the highway. They’ve destroyed Indians lefty Cliff Lee repeatedly over the last two years: six starts, 34.2 innings of work, 48 hits and 26 runs, with Lee sporting an 0-5 mark in those ballgames.

After his incredible start to the 2008 campaign (seven consecutive quality starts; an 0.67 ERA), Lee has reverted back to his mediocre career form as the weather has warmed up. In his last four trips to the hill, Lee has allowed 36 hits and 18 earned runs. Look for the Tigers to get to Lee once again here, and the Indians bullpen behind Lee has been nothing short of awful, ranked 29th out of 30 big league teams in bullpen ERA, with the worst opponent’s batting average allowed in the big leagues.

But it’s equally hard to trust Dontrelle Willis these days, or the Tigers bullpen behind him – Jim Leyland’s squad ranks 28th in the majors in bullpen ERA. Willis labored through four innings against the A’s in his first start off the DL last week, walking five batters. That’s nothing new for Dontrelle – he’s got an incredibly bad 3-16 strikeout to walk ratio so far this season, lasting just nine innings in his three previous starts. And with Willis on a strict pitch count once again tonight, the patient Indians should have plenty of opportunities to put even more runs on the board against Detroit’s bullpen in the latter stages of the game. With umpire Larry Vanover and his narrow strike zone behind home plate tonight (49-32 to the Over since the start of the 2006 season), look for a high scoring ballgame in Detroit this evening. Take the Over.

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WISE OWL GAME OF THE WEEK

TORONTO BLUEJAYS

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Chris James Sports

3* Blue Jays

3* Angels

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The Silver Fox

2* Seattle Mariners

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