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3* on Pirates/Cardinals UNDER 9
Play Under - Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (ST LOUIS) - with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games. This is a 43-14 Totals System favoring the UNDER that is hitting 75.4% since 1997. St. Louis is 17-5 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits/start over the last 2 seasons. St. Louis is 13-4 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. The Cards and Pirates both struggle to score runs. The UNDER is 5-1 in the Cardinals’ last 6 games overall. Todd Wellemeyer held the Pirates to just 1 run on 2 hits in his last start against them this season. Bet the UNDER 9 runs.
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Pistons -5 over Celtics
This is where experience comes into play. Detroit is facing elimination at home and I just don't see this core group of guys who have played in so many playoff games together losing tonight at home. This game is real simple. Pick the winner and then take them against the spread. If the Pistons win, but fail to cover then its just the way it goes. I think Detroit forces a game seven so lets roll with the Pistons tonight.
Major League Baseball
Mets -140 over Dodgers
2 units on Cleveland -131
2 units on Arizona -1.5 (RL)
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Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Baltimore Orioles +140
I’ll give Baltimore a shot tonight with Daniel Cabrera on the mound. Cabrera is 5-1 with a 3.70 ERA on the season. The Orioles are 2-0 against the Red Sox this season, including a 7-3 win where Cabrera allowed just 3 runs through 7 innings to pick up the win. Boston has dropped nine of its past 10 road games and are batting just .169 (32-for-189) through the first six games of its current 10-game road trip. The Red Sox managed just two hits as they were blanked for the second time in five games, 1-0, at the Seattle Mariners on Wednesday. Josh Beckett lost his last start against the Orioles, allowing 11 hits and 5 earned runs. Cabrera is 6-0 in night games this season. The Orioles have won 8 of Cabrera’s 10 starts this year so we will give them a shot tonight against Beckett and the Red Sox. Cash in with Baltimore as the underdog.
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Black Widow Sports
1* on San Francisco Giants -116
Usually the Giants are a shaky bet, but tonight they are a great wager against the lowly San Diego Padres. San Diego is 1-11 (-10.5 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. Matt Cain has given up just 60 hits in 67 innings this season. Cain has been brilliant against the Padres in his career with a 2.32 ERA in 13 lifetime starts against San Diego. The Giants are also playing with confidence right now in winning 6 of their last 8 games overall. Take the Giants on the Money Line.
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Red Dog Sports
1 unit on Florida and Philadelphia to go over 10 runs.
There have been 35 overs, 16 unders and 2 pushes in the last 53 meetings. The Marlins
have 24 overs 9 unders and 2 pushes in their last 35 Friday night games while the
Phillies have 9 overs 3 unders and 1 push in their last 13 after a win. Hendrickson
has an ERA of 6.00 in his last 3 starts while Myers has an ERA of 7.16 his last
3. The Phils have been scoring runs in bunches lately and we are looking for plenty
of runs on Friday night. 1 unit on OVER 10 runs.
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For Friday take the Angels at home.
Jered Weaver has not been as great as in that sensational rookie season but the righty was just awesome in that last start and should come through once again here against what has been a very weak hitting Toronto squad.
Last season the Blue Jays put up a ton of runs but things have been a complete 180 this season. Frank Thomas was a disappointment and was released and now Vernon Wells is still hurt. Even when those guys were around the offense was not close to clicking and in Anaheim here there is nor eason to believe that Weaver will be anything but very very good.
Dustin McGowan has great stuff but for whatever reason is just not the same on the road. The righty has been absolutely great up North but is a little Jekyl and Hyde hurler and the bad guy shows up on the highway like this more times than not. McGowan certainly has a huge upside and the ability to be fine here but with his punch and judy offense up against Weaver he better be more than fine and I don't see that happening.
Vlad, Anderson, Matthews, Hunter and the Halos are always solid at the Big A and I don't see much changing today!
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Bob Harvey Sports
Take LA Dodgers and New York Mets UNDER 8.
To borrow from a line from my favourite rock group, The Eagles, theres a New Kid In Town and his name is Clayton Kershaw.
The 20-year old lefthander makes his second big league start as the Dodgers look to snap a four-game losing streak tonight in New York.
In his major league debut on Sunday, Kershaw held St. Louis to two runs and five hits while striking out seven in six innings. He came out of contest with a no decision but deserved better. His stuff has been described as electric and its still a mystery to me why he wasnt in the Dodger rotation from Day One. The Dodgers under Frank McCourt and Ned Colletti havent made very many good decisions, but thats another subject for another day. In regards to Kershaw, its better late than never. Hes the real deal, as Willie Randolphs club will find out this evening. New York will counter with John Maine who held the Dodgers to one run and four hits in 8 1-3 innings of a 12-1 victory in Los Angeles in May. The UNDER is 8-1 in the Dodgers last nine games overall, while the UNDER plays to a 6-2-1 record in Maines last nine starts. My friends, Kershaw is the real deal and Maine should keep the Dodger bats quiet as he did earlier this season. This one shapes up as a low-scoring affair.
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Tony Smith's Picks of the Day
The Spurs end up as a push for most players though I did get calls about it being a winner too. That needless three at dribble out time cost the clean cover or the wire to wire cover. I'll take push or win, I guess I have to. With a hook on tonights total there wont be any pushes tonight, lets get to the winner. The reasons I gave you for a blowout over in game five was the perfect storm for an over play. This is game six and things are different. Boston did not win game six in Atlanta or in Cleveland. The Celtics won game five because they out rebounded Detroit 45 - 25, Kendrick Perkins had 18 points with 16 boards, the big three of Garnett, Pierce and ALLEN shot 25 of 43 in the home win. At the palace in game four the big three of Boston shot 11 of 38. In these playoffs Boston is 0 - 7 when leading in the series and playing on the road. The nagging injury to Chauncy Billlups has been a factor and now an MRI on Richard Hamilton's elbow (negative) lists him as a game time decision (yea right). Hamilton will play. The Celtics are averaging about twenty points per game fewer in these playoffs on the road. The Pistons are playing at home in their sixth consecutive conference finals with their backs to the wall and two starters playing with nagging injuries. This means the Pistons are going to play defense first and make sure they clamp down on Boston early to keep them off the board. Boston played a strong defensive game at the Palace in game four, look for that to continue and for defense to rule this ugly Eastern Conference type game six. BEST: Celtics / Pistons UNDER
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Stu Feiner's Picks of the Day
50,000 Dime Playoff Best Bet: BOSTON CELTICS
With Detroit staying inside the price Wednesday night (just like I told my clients), the road team has now covered 10 of the last 13 meetings between these Eastern Conference rivals and the dog has grabbed the cash in 13 of the last 18 meetings. That tells me that the oddsmakers are setting the lines to high when these two face off and that is again the case this evening. With the Celtics winning at the Palace last Saturday to rid themselves of their playoff road woes, this team knows it has the capabilities of winning in Motown. They also want to end this series as quickly as possible in order to gain some bit of rest before taking on the Lakers. And whether Rip Hamilton is healthy enough to go or not, the fact remains that he won’t be 100 percent and neither is the former Mr. Big Shot, Chauncey Billups with his ailing hamstring. Tayshaun Prince hasn’t been able to find any offensive rhythm because he’s having to devote so much attention on the other end of the court defending Paul Pierce. Rasheed Wallace has been more of a distraction than anything as two of Detroit’s better players in this series have been rookie Rodney Stuckey and the aging Antonio McDyess.
The C’s Big Three of Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen can all just taste their first NBA Finals. And what about the play of young and active Kendrick Perkins, who is helping Boston win the battle on the boards? Much has been made of Detroit’s six straight trips to the conference finals, but if they lose tonight, they’ll have bowed out in four of them. The Pistons have failed to cover in 13 of their last 17 conference finals games as like the Spurs last night, the window is closing on this team’s current run (which has resulted in only one lone world title). Boston was the NBA’s best road team this year and has covered six of its last seven when getting between five and 10 ½ points. This is too much for this battered and aging Detroit team to cover and they won’t. They’ll be fortunate to win straight-up at all as Boston plus these points is the solid winning play tonight.
500 Dime MLB Winners: MARLINS & WHITE SOX
The Marlins lead the Phillies in the NL East and they’ll take the season’s first meeting tonight as solid dog. Dan Uggla has hit Brett Myers (0-5, 6.92 ERA last seven starts) hard in his career and the Fish will score enough for Mark Hendrickson (2-1, 3.46 on the road this year). Florida has won five straight versus southpaw starters and is 15-6 in series openers this year. Meanwhile, the Phils are just 3-13 in Myers’ last 16 starts and have dropped six straight when he toes the rubber. Make it seven consecutive as the Fish get it done tonight.
I scored an underdog winner with the White Sox on Thursday night and I’m going to continue to ride this hot team that has won 12 of its last 15. The Sox are 7-1 in their last eight at Tropicana Field (3-1 this year) and have won 20 of the last 28 meetings. And how about tonight’s starter Jose Contreas, who is 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA in his last four starts. He’s also a solid 5-0 with a 2.89 in his career versus the Rays. The Rays have been good at home and so has tonight’s starter James Shields, hence Tampa being favored. But this team doesn’t score enough, and it can’t be a positive with closer Troy Percival being place don the DL Thursday. I’ll ride with the hotter team and pitcher as Chicago takes the second game of this four-game set.
Howie Feiner's Picks of the Day
700* NBA Eastern Conference Finals Side of the Month
Side in Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons
Boston accomplished what they needed to by winning on the road for the first time in this post-season. It wasn't a matter of if they could do it, but when. After a win like they they're going to be feeling confident and calm, normally a good thing for a team, but we saw what that road win did to Detroit as they fell apart in game three at home. They didn't just fall apart, they literally did not come to play whatsoever, with Billups only sinking one field goal.
Just like with game five there was no doubt that the Celtics would take it. They've won every other swing game in the playoffs, so history repeated itself and they won again. Here's another piece of ancient history for you, Boston is a staggering 29 - 2 when a series is at 3 - 2 in their favor. Is there any doubt that Boston has a slight edge coming to the Palace tonight?
There's one thing that has to have Boston wondering though. This postseason they havent managed to win either of their game six's. They take it back home for a game seven if needed, but after the Lakers closing win last night, Boston is looking to be able to conserve as much energy as possible. The Pistons last two trip to the Eastern Conference finals ended during game six, but on the road.
These teams are going to be very concerned about rebounding, ball control, and clock domination. They both have a struggling history when it comes to game six's, and they each have their own reasons to need a big win here tonight. Both Coaches are going to be hounding their teams hard tonight, and it'll be a slow scoring game wire to wire.
500* MLB Friday Payday
Side in Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Total in Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona is still in first place in the east, but they've dropped 9 of their last 13. They have been in a bit of a slow slump, both in the field and at the plate. One mistake, or one slow pitch, and the game just blows up in their face. The Diamondbacks have also scored three runs or less in 9 of their last 13 as well. There's no doubt that they're a good team, but they seem to be in a bit of a slump.
Arizona also has 3 of the top 5 players with the most strikeouts in the NL this season. Upton, Reynolds, and Young all have over 55 strikeouts, meaning they want to hit, and they want it bad, but they just keep going out swinging, missing the easy pitches. Thats a good sign for Redding and the Nat's as this Arizona team has dominated them in the past.
Redding is coming off of his worst start of the season, where he allowed 5 runs off of twice as many runs. He's got a terrible career record against the D'Backs, but the last time he played them was nearly 3 years ago, and Redding has done much to improve himself in that time. Arizona is bringing Owens to the mound, who looked great in his game against the Nats last time, but he's still got next to no history with the team.
Pitching isn't looking great tonight for either side. Owens has had a decent recent run, and Redding has changed up his game, but I don't think either of them will shine in tonight's performance. I think its going to be a slugfest, even for the Nats who are only batting .233 as a team.
Sal Conti's Picks of the Day
MAX OUT BANKROLL PLAY wins easily with the New York Mets dominating Brad Penney again taking a six nothing lead in an 8 - 4 final. The 4 max plays prior to the bankroll play were +150, +130, - 130 and +130. Those four winners were equivilent to five winners because of odds back. Myself and everybody I do business with put the winnings of those four max plays on the Mets last night resulting in a plus ten max unit profit for us this week. Tonight is a max play 10 unit gift. Dustin McGowan is 3 - 4 with a 3.90 ERA for the Blue Jays for whom he will start tonight McGowan is 0 - 3 away with a 5.91 ERA he is 0 - 3 vs. the Angels in his career. The Angels Jered Weaver is 4 - 5 with a 4.16 ERA on the season. They tweaked his delivery earlier in the month with great results. In his last three starts Weaver has allowed a total of two runs. In his last outing Weaver shut out the White Sox on three hits, pitching eight innings. In the last 20 1/3 innings pitched he has allowed2 runs, Jered is 2 - 0 with a 2.31 ERA lifetime vs. the Blue Jays. We get another max play 10 unit win today with the Angels. 10 UNIT PLAY: ANGELS
Les Barry's Picks of the Day
NBA Game 5 Parlay Round 2:
500* and 1000* Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics
Sorry Saunders, but Detroit is losing here in the Conference Finals for the third time in a row. The Celtics do not want to experience yet another game seven, Coach Rivers is going to play them to win. They're going to concentrate on keeping Detroit from scoring rather than going for a full-on offensive push. Detroit has too much bad history to pull of a win here.
The Pistons have lost in Game 6 the last two seasons. They just simply won't be able to get it done tonight. I expect the game to be very close, but with the Celtics coming out on top for sure. Both of this teams have played great against each other, especially in wednesday night's game. I mean, Boston shot 50.7% and Detroit shot 46.3%, how crazy is that? This was a fluke, it's insane to think that will happen again. There is no way that these two defense-heavy teams allow each other to score over 100 points each again.
500* Boston (+5.5) and 1000* Under: 175.5
MLB Streak Play:
500* Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
The Mets win three in a row and I win three in a row. Look, I caught them right when this streak started and i'll get off it before they lose. Just hit this game, they're going to win again. John Maine isn't off to his best start to the season, but he's been able to win. Maine is now 5 - 4 with a 3.41 ERA. Maine is coming off a quality start against Colorado and he pitched 6 innings giving up only 1 earned run against Washington on May 13th. The Mets usually hit decent for Maine, but they will hit the sinking Dodgers hard like they did against Penny yesterday.
Clayton Kershaw had a good outing in his first taste of the 2008 major leagues. He gave up 2 earned runs in 6 innings pitched. Now, we all know that one start is not enough to get an accurate reading on a pitcher's ability. You will see him get rocked here. He pitched against St. Louis' cold lineup in his only start so he hasn't had the experience of a hard-hitting team. The Dodgers have also lost four in a row, they were swept by the Cubs and then lost their first against the Mets yesterday. I expect a Mets sweep as the Dodgers faulter.
Michael Jame's Picks of the Day
Celtics at Pistons
Has there been anyone more locked in than yours truly in the NBA? How about this series you ask? How about 4-1 in these five games. Tonight you must trust me when I tell you that the Celtics are the smart play here tonight. You know who has been the Pistons best scorer in this series? Richard Hamilton has hit every key shot in this series. He also has been outstanding from the free throw line. Well who knows how strong Rip will in tonight’s contest. Anyone that saw the last few minutes of game five can see clearly he will not be 100% if he plays.
Another important factor is the re-emergence of Ray Allen. Was he a huge factor in game five or what? Ray Allen is such a pure shooter that he can shoot anywhere. Kevin Garnett has eaten up Rasheed Wallace. Wallace has been comfortable floating away from the basket. The Celtics will let him shoot those threes. When he shoots those shots he is away from the board. The fact that Wallace only grabbed four rebounds really shows he is not the power forward in this series that Detroit needs.
What do you need to win on the road and even more importantly play well? You need a team that can turn to multiple scorers (Allen, Garnett and Pierce) and you need a team that plays sound defense (second in the NBA and first in the playoffs in team defense). Well it is clear that Boston does both.
The Celtics may not win this game, but do they have too? Who cares if we are making money. If there is a game seven or the series is over, I know that the Celtics will be in it in the final two minutes just as Detroit was.
Indians at Royals
This line is just too good to pass up. I know all about the Royals struggles. I know they are a team that is really down but they will turn it around tonight. There are a few reasons they will turn it around. The first fact is they are playing a team that is in even dire straights than them. Sure the Indians have a better record, but let’s be fair; this is a team that was supposed to contend for a ring. The Indians though have been putrid.
How about a 2-10 in their last twelve games? They are not losing because of their starting pitcher, they are losing because they can not hit. I know that Cliff Lee is on the mound. I know how good he has been and I am sure he will give a solid performance but it will not matter. The Indians haven’t scored more than a handful of runs in a week. They face a tough starter in Gil Meche and will lose this game tonight in Kauffman stadium.
Yankees at Twins
Last week I told you that the Yankees were a road favorite because of their reputation. Well in that game the Yankees lost to a lowly Orioles team in extra innings and I was proved right. Tonight I am telling you the same thing. The Yankees have not proved that they are a solid baseball team in 2008. I don’t care about their record in years past. I don’t care that they have made the playoffs 13 straight years. I am living in the present.
The Twins are fresh off their series against the Royals where they got fat. Winning games there didn’t come easy. They showed a lot of character and behind some of their big boppers such as: Morneau and Mauer they got the job done. Another important turn of events for the Twins is the fact that Carlos Gomez (In the Santana trade) is taking his play to another level.
The Yankees sound out an aging Mike Mussina. With no Joba and Moose only likely to go five innings max. I look for the Twins to pull this game out in the later innings.
Brian King's Picks of the Day
CELTICS AT PISTONS - 8:30 PM, ET
Here comes NBA Best Bet Number FOUR In A Row!!!! Everyone I talk to is counting Detroit out of the series. Are you kidding me? This is the Detroit Pistons and this is the Palace. They are not going to roll over to the Celtics in their house. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! The Celtics are 0-2 in Game 6's and have been stretched to seven games in every series. This will be their 20th game of the post season and they are travelling to Detroit where the Pistons are fighting for their playoff lives. Yes, Ray Allen was hot the other night and that was a big reason for the Celtics win at home, but mind you they barely squeaked that one out winning by only four. And where the hell was Ray Allen the rest of the playoffs? Ray Allen will pull a disappearing act again tonight as the Pistons shut him down. Detroit will make adjustments and come out with the tough defense they have always been known for while their offense will be firing on all cylinders and scoring huge at home. At this point in the playoffs with both teams tired it all comes down to mental toughness and the Pistons are the toughest mental team in all of the NBA. Detroit has been knocked out of the playoffs the last two years in Game 6's but not this year. This series is going back to Boston for a Game 7. Detroit by 10 or more.
DETROIT PISTONS -5.5 (15 DIMES)
CLEVELAND AT KANSAS CITY (MLB) - 8:10 PM, ET
Kansas City hosts a Cleveland team tonight that is a dismal 8-13 on the road and may likely continue to be without slugger Travis Hafner. Kansas City has lost 11 in a row and is looking to turn things around. KC will be going to Gil Meche who despite his 3-7 record has pitched exceptionally well his last two starts allowing only two runs in each of those starts while getting only two runs of support duriong that stretch. Meche's best start of the season came against Cleveland on May 4th when he threw seven innings of four hit ball in a 2-0 victory. Look for Kansas City to get on Cleveland starter Cliff Lee early and put an end to the losing streak at home with a victory tonight.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS +125 (5 DIMES)
DOGERS AT METS (MLB) - 7:10 PM, ET
Two words - CLAYTON KERSHAW! Word is, this kid is the real deal with what many say is the best curveball they have ever seen. Kershaw will be making his second start of the season after pitching well against a powerhouse Cardinals lineup on Sunday. Kershaw held St. Louis to two runs and five hits over six innnings while accumulating seven strikeouts. The Mets counter with John Maine who has lost two starts in a row allowing eight runs in 10 innings of consecutive losses to the Braves and Rockies. Prior to a 12-1 win versus the Dodgers on May 7th, Maine had been 0-3 with a 5.06 ERA against the Dodgers. Look for the lefty Kershaw to silence the Mets hot bats in a close one at Shea as the Dodgers snap their 4 game road skid.
DODGERS +125 (5 DIMES)