MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Scott Rickenbach

MLB 1* (regular play) OVER the total in NY Mets vs Florida 

The Mets and Marlins both send struggling hurlers to the mound this evening. The only thing that was going to keep us off of this game was the rain moving into the area but most of that is expected to hold off until Tuesday morning so we should be okay here weatherwise. Match-up wise we definitely appear to be okay. Each of these hurlers has more walks than strikeouts so far this season and that right there tells you a lot about the quality (or lack of) for these two pitchers.

Mike Pelfrey gets the start for the Mets and he has allowed four earned runs or more in four of his last six starts! He has a 2-5 record on the season and he’s actually somewhat lucky that his ERA is only a 5.00 and we say this because the guy is getting hammered at .324 clip so far this season. Pelfrey has trouble recording outs to say the least and this really should come as no surprise to the Mets management. Since coming to the bigs, and all his seasons have been with the Mets, Pelfrey is now 7-14 with a 5.37 ERA and he’s been hit at a .308 clip. He also has command issues and that’s part of the reason that he has a lofty 1.72 WHIP in his career. In fact, Pelfrey has been up in that range every single season and he’ll be facing a tough Marlins lineup tonight. Florida’s slugging percentage has them ranked #1 out of all 30 teams in MLB.

The only good news for Mets fans tonight is that their club should also enjoy plenty of success at the plate tonight. That’s because New York will be teeing off against Ricky Nolasco whom they’ve absolutely hammered through the years. Nolasco has faced the Mets six times and he’s 1-3 with a 10.80 ERA in those six appearances (four of them starts). Also, Nolasco is getting hit at a .436 clip by the Mets in his career and he’ll be facing hitters up and down New York’s lineup that have “owned him” in his career. The list is endless of Mets hitters that have crushed Nolasco in their appearances against him and this one should quickly see some crooked numbers getting put up on the scoreboard! Play OVER the total in the New York Mets game as a regular selection.

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Matt Fargo

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels return home to try to improve upon their 14-11 record in Anaheim. The recent road trip was a good one as they won both series and ended up taking four of the six games. Detroit meanwhile is just 9-15 on the road this season and it has dropped eight of its last nine away from home. The road numbers back up the dismal record as the Tigers are hitting just .246 while the starting pitching has posted a horrendous 5.10 ERA. One of those starters that is contributing to those numbers is Kenny Rogers as he has posted a 7.03 ERA in his six road starts. After putting together three straight quality starts, Rogers has allowed 11 runs covering 9.1 innings over his last two starts. The Angels counter with Jon Garland who has now put together four straight quality starts after struggling to start the season. In six April starts, he had a 5.94 ERA but in the four May starts, that drops to 2.25.Play Los Angeles Angels 1.5 Units

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

David Malinsky 4*

Brewers @ Nationals (HT)
PICK: First 5 Innings Under

We are not enamored with either of these bullpens right now, particularly after they both had to work long stints on Sunday. But the Ben Sheets/Jason Bergmann portion of this game should develop into quite a pitcher’s duel, and we have outstanding value to take advantage for the early stages of this one.

Sheets brings much better form to the mound than the recent numbers indicate. Two starts back the box score will show that he allowed six runs over 6.1 innings vs. the Dodgers, but that is most misleading - he carried a shutout into the 7th inning, when Ned Yost made the mistake of leaving him in the game too long after he opened that frame poorly. But Sheets rebounded from that hiccup with a complete game win at Pittsburgh in his last outing, a game in which he did not walk a batter. Over his last two “First Half” performances he has allowed only one run, and has not issued a walk. His stuff can dominate a Washington lineup that lacks experience against him , particularly on the first two passes (six of the eight position starters have less than 10 career at-bats against him), and the fact that his control is so good means that nothing is given away. With Ryan Zimmerman sidelined for the Nats today, they are even more hard-pressed to score.

Jason Bergmann has rebounded exactly the way that Washington was hoping for after his early demotion to the Minor Leagues. It was not as though he opened the season all that badly, he was just a little bit off of his game and needed some seasoning to work on his mechanics. In his last three starts before being called back up he allowed only three runs over 21 innings, working a pair of shutouts, and he brought that confidence back to the big league mound on his return. He has worked 14 innings since rejoining the rotation, not allowing a single run, and with a dominating ratio of 14 strikeouts vs. only eight hits allowed. Like Sheets, we can call for him to be sharp on the first two passes through the lineup, with the projected Milwaukee starters having a combined 12 career at-bats against him.

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

David Chan

Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

This price has sky-rocketed, but there's still some value to squeeze out of the Phillies. That's how bad things are for the Rockies right now.

With Holliday, Barmes, Tulowitzki, Hawpe and others rounding out Colorado's injury list, you can see how this road trip could present some problems. The Rockies are actually 5-3 over their last eight games, so like I said, there is still value in this line. Catching teams at the start of streaks, whether it be winning or losing, is key in baseball handicapping, and I think we're going against Colorado at the right time here.

The Phillies have won four of their last six and hung 15 runs on the Astros on Sunday. Jamie Moyer is a proven winner on this mound and he'll be going up against a Rockies lineup that has struggled against southpaws, hitting .243 as a team. And of course, that number would be much lower without Holliday and the rest of the walking wounded.

Philadelphia has posted an exceptional 13-4 record in Game 1 of a series this season, including 8-2 following a victory. The Rockies are just 6-11 in series openers. The Phils have already swept a series in Colorado this season, and they'll get off on the right foot in this set on Monday night.

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BEN BURNS

MARINERS

Prediction: Seattle Mariners Reason: I'm playing on SEATTLE. The Red Sox begin the new week with a respectable 31-22 record on the season. That record is a result of their exceptional play at home though, where they've won 10 straight and are an impressive 21-5 on the season. They've been a completely different team on the road. Indeed, they just got swept at Oakland and are now 0-7 their past seven road games and a poor 10-17 on the road for the season. Facing an extremely tough pitcher, who has given them trouble in the past, I expect the Red Sox road woes to continue for another day. Felix Hernandez has shaken off a rare tough stretch by delivering back to back quality starts. In each outing, he tossed six complete innings while allowing just two runs. While he did have his Saturday start pushed back, due to soreness in his leg, Hernandez and trainer Rick Griffin are confident that he'll be just fine. Note that in three career starts vs. Boston, Hernandez is 2-0 (Mariners are 3-0, +3.6 units) with a stellar 2.91 ER and 1.015 WHIP, averaging better than seven innings per start. Like the Red Sox, the Mariners have really struggled on the road. They have won two straight and three of four, here at Seattle, though. They've also gone 9-2 their last 11 home meetings with the Red Sox. While Colon has had success at SafeCo, the Mariners did beat him each of the last two times they faced him. Overall, the last three times he faced the Mariners, Colon allowed 28 hits and 13 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings. (That's a 5.48 ERA.) Look for the youngster Hernandez to outduel the veteran Colon as the Mariners begin the week with a much needed victory and improve to 16-5 their last 21 home games played on a Monday. *Annihilator

YANKEES

Prediction: New York Yankees Reason: I'm laying the price with the NEW YORK YANKEES. These pitchers both have excellent records so far this season. Olson is 3-1, Rasner is 3-0. However, while their w/l records are similar, the rest of their stats are not. Rasner has gone a minimum of six innings in each of his starts, most recently going seven. He has a stellar 1.89 ERA and 0.842 WHIP. Conversely, Olson has a 5.19 ERA and 1.615 WHIP. Rasner and Olson's stats are so different, in large part to last week's game at New York, when they squared off against each other. In that contest, Rasner allowed five hits through seven shutout innings, striking out six while walking just one. Olson, on the other hand, allowed eight hits and six runs in just 2 2/3 innings, walking two while only recording one strikeout. To put his stats for that game another way, he's now 0-1 against the Yankees with a 20.22 ERA and 3.745 WHIP! Including last week's loss in the Rasner/Olson matchup, the Orioles have now lost five straight. The Yankees, on the other hand, have won five in a row. Note that four of those five victories came against left-handed starters too, showing that their earlier troubles against southpaws seem to be a thing of the past. Yesterday's victory was of the "momentum-building variety" as the Yankees rallied for four wins in the bottom of the eighth for a 1-run win. Note that the victory brought them to 8-5 in day games on the season. Yesterday's loss was of the "emotionally-draining" or "deflating" variety for the Orioles, as they lost in the bottom of the ninth. That dropped them to 4-13 in their afternoon games this season and an ugly 43-72 (-24.8) since the start of the 2006 season. Look for the Orioles' daytime struggles to continue, as Rasner outpitches Olson for the second time in less than a week and the Yankees improve to 12-6 their last 18 road games played on a Monday.

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Teddy June Game Of The Day

Angels

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WILD BILL

Arizona -125 (1 unit)
Over 8 1/2 Dodgers-Cubs (4 units)
Rockies +170 (2 units)
Yankees -140 (2 units)
Indians +110 (2 units)
Texas +180 (2 units)
Detroit +115 (1 unit)
Boston +100 (5 units)

NBA
Detroit -5 (5 units)

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

The Hammer Guaranteed Selections

PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB MLB MUST GO 2-0 PARLAY
Philadelphia w/Moyer -192
Tampa Bay w/Kazmir -195

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Shark System PREMIUM Play!

The Red Sox lost 3 straight to Oakland and now prepare for 3 in Seattle. Boston has not won any of their previous 7 games. Today Bartolo Colon makes his second start for the Sox this season after going five innings against KC on Wednesday. He has faced the Mariners and the Mariners have faced him many times. His stuff is nothing new. However, Felix Hernandez for the Mariners has never lost to Boston and has only given up 3 earned runs in his last 2 starts despite a 0-4 record. His ERA is under 3.30 overall and against Boston he has a 2.91 ERA. Seattle takes this one down behind a strong pitching performance from King Felix.

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Josh Dean

Pit/Det UNDER 5.5

Cws/Cle UNDER 8.5
Det/LA UNDER 9.5

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Vegas-Runner

DET /  BOS Under 176.0  3* NBA BEST BET of the DAY


BOS 6.0 vs DET  2* WAGER **

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EZWINNERS

MLB


1 STAR: (904) WASHINGTON (+$128) over Milwaukee
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $128)

1 STAR: (911) KANSAS CITY (+$165) over Toronto
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $165)

1 STAR: (914) BALTIMORE (+$122) over NY Yankees
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $122)

1 STAR: (916) CLEVELAND (-$102) over Chicago
(Listing Byrd only)
(Risking $102 to win $100)

1 STAR: (922) SEATTLE (-$105) over Boston
(Listing Hernandez only)
(Risking $105 to win $100)

1 STAR: (917) TEXAS (+$180) over Tampa Bay
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $180)

1 STAR: (919) DETROIT (+$112) over LA Angels
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $112)


NBA

1 STAR: (714) DETROIT (-5) over Boston
(Risking $110 to win $100)
7:35PM Central Time

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections

TOP RATED BASEBALL PLAY OF THE DAY
Detroit w/Rogers +110

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

BURNS NBA

PISTONS
Game: Boston Celtics vs. Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons Reason: I'm laying the points with DETROIT. I successfully backed the road team in the second and third games of this series. However, I expect the home team to get the job done on Memorial Day. While the Celtics managed to win on the road in Game 3, they've still been brutal on the road these playoffs. Including their upset loss in Game 2, the Celtics are also a money-burning 2-7 ATS when they've held a series lead. Conversely, including their win in Game 2, the Pistons are 2-0 SU/ATS when they've been trailing in a playoff series. Prior to this series, the only previous time they were trailing was after the opening game of their opening series vs. the 76ers. As they did in Game 2 of this series, the Pistons responded with one of their best games of these playoffs, jumping off to a 17-point halftime lead and cruising to a lopsided 105-88 victory. Following that game, Detroit's Chauncey Billups commented: "We were focused, really locked in on what we had to do. We got off to a quick start and we never let up. All five starters played good, and we all shot the ball well. That makes us tough." Speaking of Billups, it should be noted that he's banged-up at the moment. However, he's an extremely tough player and is expected to play. Obviously, the Pistons would prefer that Billups be at 100%. However, if he proves unable to go or is forced to play limited minutes, the team has already proven that they can win with Rodney Stuckey filling in for Billups. Note that Stuckey is averaging a healthy 13 points per game in this series. Let's go back to the Pistons Game 2 win over the 76ers for a minute, as Andre Iguodala's post-game comments further emphasize how focused the Pistons have been when they've found themselves trailing: "They were clicking everywhere. Those are the Detroit Pistons that we expect to see." Despite Saturday's loss, the Pistons remain an impressive 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS their last 18 games on this floor. As they've done each previous time when they've found themselves down in a series, look for them to respond with a big win and cover. *Main Event

UNDER Pistons/Celtics
Game: Boston Celtics vs. Detroit Pistons Under
I'm playing on the Pistons and Celtics to finish UNDER the total. I felt the number was too high for Game 3 and the final score managed to stay below the total. Once again I feel that the total is too high and this time, I'm expecting an even lower final combined score. As you know, these teams are both excellent defnsively, finishing number #1 and number #2 in terms of points allowed. Not surprisingly, they've tended to play low-scoring games when matched up against each other. In fact, including the Game 3 result, the UNDER is a profitable 9-2 the last 11 series meetings, including a 4-1 mark the last five meetings here at Detroit. The Celtics have seen the UNDER go 12-8 the last 20 times they were listed as underdogs, including a 3-0 mark their last three in that role. Including the results in this series, the UNDER is now 14-7-1 since 2006 when they've faced a team which allows 91 or fewer points per game, 4-1 this season. The Celtics saw Game 4 in their series vs. the Hawks slip above the total. However, that was only by a single point. In Game 4 of their second series, they combined with the Cavs for a mere 165 points. The Pistons have seen the UNDER go 2-0 in Game 4 of their previous two matchups. In Game 4 of their opening series, the held the 76ers to 84 points. In Game 4 of their second round series, they held the high-scoring Magic to just 89, at Orlando. Despite a high-scoring Game 2 in this series, the UNDER remains a profitable 20-12 when the Pistons have been trailing in a playoff series. During the same stretch, they've now seen the UNDER go an even better 22-10 when playing in the conference finals. While the numbers seems low at first glance, the Pistons have seen the UNDER go 12-3-1 this season (27-15-2 since 2006!) when playing a game with an over/under line in the 170s, including a 5-1 mark at home this season. I expect another defensive battle tonight. *Blue Chip

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Jeffersonsports

NBA
Detroit-6

MLB
Chicago White Sox-105
Florida+122

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KB-HOOPS

NBA
5 units Detroit -6

MLB
7 units Atlanta Braves +110
5 units Philadelphia -1.5 +110
4 units Toronto -1.5 +125

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

The Experts Guaranteed Selections

EASY ULTIMATE EXPERTS BASEBALL CRUSHER
Philadelphia w/Moyer -185

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Dr. Bob

Monday NBA Analysis
Boston at DETROIT (-6/175)
Detroit applies to a pretty good 135-84-4 ATS bounce-back situation and Detroit is 11-1 ATS this season at home following a loss (the one spread loss was a 16 point win as a 20 ½ point favorite). However, my ratings would favor the Pistons by 3 ½ points under normal circumstances and the line here should be 4 ½ points after adding a point to the team coming off a loss (which is common practice in the playoffs). The line value and the situation cancel each other out in this case and I have no opinion on the side in this game.

My predicted total is 172½ points, so I’ll once again lean with the Under at 174 points or higher and I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 176 points or higher.

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