Friday Service Plays
Re: Friday Service Plays
Seattle @ NY Yankees
Play On: 3* NY Yankees -140 (Bedard/Wang) Listed
Seattle is scoring only 4.4 runs per game overall this year, 4.0 runs per game on the road this year and 4.0 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Seattle bullpen has a 5.23 ERA overall this year and a 5.17 ERA on the road this year. NY Yankees bullpen has a 3.14 ERA at home this year. Wang is 5-0 with a 3.23 ERA overall this season. Wang is 6-0 with a 2.51 ERA overall vs Seattle since 1997. We'll play the NY Yankees for 3 units tonight!
Re: Friday Service Plays
3-Unit Play. Take #930 Oakland (-140) over Texas (10 p.m., Friday, May 2)
1-Unit Play. Take #930 Oakland (-1.5, +160) over Texas (10 p.m., Friday, May 2)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
I’m sorry, but I’m not buying Vince Padilla’s resurgence. He threw 121 pitches in a complete game on Sunday and I don’t think he’s going to be nearly as sharp against the A’s today. He has a career ERA of 7.11 in four starts in Oakland and is 3-8 following a quality start in his last appearance. The Rangers are 17-36 in their last 53 road games and are just 3-8 in divisional affairs. Their bullpen is a disaster and I think Oakland’s offense will stay hot after their big performance on Thursday. Joe Blanton is 6-2 in his career against the Rangers and I really think that he’s thrown better than his numbers. He’s just faced some killer lineups.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #910 Houston (-135) over Milwaukee (8 p.m., Friday, May 2)
Over the past three years the Astros are 63-38 in all of Roy Oswalt's starts and he is 63-20 at home in his career. The Astros are 5-2 in Oswalt’s last seven starts against the Brewers and 6-1 in his last seven home starts against the Brew Crew. Houston is 22-4 with Oswalt at home against a team with a winning record and 44-15 in his last 69 home starts overall. Milwaukee is coming off a very emotional series in Chicago and could be primed for a letdown against a Houston team that had a day off and has been playing better over the last two weeks.
1-Unit Play. Take #906 Washington (-125) over Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m., Friday, May 2)
The Pirates just continue to struggle against left-handed starters. They are 18-39 on the road against southpaws and are 1-10 in their last 11 games against lefties. John Lannan has been sharp in the early part of this season and should be able to handle the Pirates. Pittsburgh is using a spot starter, and if Phil Dumatrait can’t make it past the fourth or fifth inning then the Pirates bullpen and it’s 7.00 road ERA will be hung out to dry. The Nationals are 16-6 in their last 22 against the N.L. Central and are 18-6 against the Pirates in Washington. They’ve won four straight and have some steam here, so I look for the Nats to keep it rolling.
1-Unit Play. Take #913 Los Angeles Dodgers (-110) over Colorado (9 p.m., Friday, May 2)
I do think that the Rockies could jump up and bite here, but I’ve seen the Dodgers get hot like this before and it’s better to ride the way than try to bet against a streak. Plus, there are two big reasons why the Dodgers are a must play. First, they are hitting .321 against southpaws – tops in MLB – and they have won four straight against a lefty starter. Second, Brad Penny is 13-2 in his career against the Rockies and the Dodgers have won 13 of his last 16 starts against them. Francis is a solid home starter and a great home dog, generally, but he has gotten hammered (18 hits and nine runs in 13 innings) at Coors this year. I think the misery continues for the Rockies here.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #918 Boston (-165) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Friday, May 2)
1-Unit Play. Take #918 Boston (-1.5, +120) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Friday, May 2)
Revenge. Tampa Bay swept the Red Sox in Tampa last week and now I think the tables will be turned a bit. Edwin Jackson was outstanding against the Sox last weekend. But he faced a lineup that didn’t have Big Papi in it. Also, Jackson is 3-15 in his next start after throwing 100 pitches. This is also the second time in less than a week that the Red Sox are going to get a crack at Edwin and I think they’ll be all over him.
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.0 Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (8 p.m., Friday, May 2)
2-Unit Play. Take #921 Chicago White Sox (+125) over Toronto (7 p.m., Friday, May 2)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #907 Cincinnati (+125) over Atlanta (7:30 p.m., Friday, May 2)
Underdog systems, letdown systems, left-handed pitching trends, and revenge systems: we have a lot going on today. I could have simply picked four games and let it ride, but I'm going to trust my systems here and play all the games that graded out properly. And we're getting all of this action for under 20 Units. I could have played four games for 4 Units apiece and actually had more exposer than we have here, so it's really not as bad as it seems! These are the series' that I've targeted (along with one more that I'll be on big tomorrow) and I'm looking for a profitable weekend to start May.
Re: Friday Service Plays
15 Dime –
DODGERS (With Penny as listed pitcher)
Take the Dodgers for the road win tonight over the Rockies.
It’s hard to ignore the success Brad Penny has had against Colorado. The right-hander is 13-2 with a 2.97 ERA in 22 career starts against them, including an 8-0 mark in his last 12 starts.
Penny is also 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last three starts overall.
The Dodgers swept the Rockies a week ago, which sparked a winning streak that is still going at six.
Colorado will be without shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who is out with a torn tendon in his left quad.
That will hamper a club that has stranded 39 runners in their last four games.
Take the Dodgers as they grab the road win.
10 Dime –
Take the points with the Cavs tonight when travel to Washington for Game 6.
A lot has been made of the trash-talking in this series by the Wizards, but they were able to stave off elimination with a win at Cleveland in Game 5.
But in all honesty, I believe the Cavs gave that game away.
Up by five, LeBron James lets the shot clock dwindle down before heaving up a 3-pointer that barely made contact with the rim. It’s a mistake that I think the Cavs learned from and one which will make them better for it.
These two teams genuinely dislike each other, so I see another one going down to the wire tonight.
For that reason, the points are the play. Plus it doesn’t hurt that the Cavs are the better team.
Take the points with the Cavs as they stay within the number tonight.
5 Dime –
TIGERS (With Galarraga and Hernandez as listed pitchers)
Take the Tigers for the road win tonight over the Twins.
Detroit has been playing much better after its 0-7 start. They have won 12 of 17, including their first sweep of the Yankees in New York since 1966.
The Tigers have had success against the Twins, having swept them at Comerica Park back in April and winning 12 of 18 meetings last year.
The Tigers were 8-1 at the Metrodome last year, winning six straight.
Armando Galarraga will start for Detroit and he’s been brilliant, posting a 2-0 record with a 1.50 ERA.
The Twins will counter with Livan Hernandez, who was rocked for seven runs and nine hits in just 2 2-3 innings Sunday against the Rangers in a 10-0 loss. The right-hander has allowed six homeruns in his last three starts, and the hot-hitting Tigers should be able to post some big numbers against him tonight.
Take the Tigers for the road win.
Re: Friday Service Plays
Vegas-Runner NHL Money Line
DAL (+130) vs SJS
** 2* ML WAGER **
This is just a great spot for us to step up and grab the "plus" money, when I truely believe that Dallas should be the Favorite in this match-up tonight...but because the oddsmakers are well aware of betting patterns by the public in these elimination games, when the team behind is at home...they went ahead and made the Sharks the Favorite...
Now, even though I expected Dallas to be able to sweep, it didn't come as too much of a surprise that they lost Game 4 at home when I broke this one down, because in the series between these teams this Year, the ROAD team has gone on to WIN 7 of 10...and more importantly, the Sharks had won 6 of the last 9 in Dallas....
These games have been extremely tight with 3 of them ending by a 1 goal win, and 2 getting there in OT...but Tonight, we have the Stars in a situation that has found the Team ahead 3-1, close out the Series on the Road 79% in the NHL..and in ALL sports with a 7Gm Series, the Road team has gone on to end the Series 76% of the time in Game 5...
Digging a little deeper, I found that only "3" Times in the past "20" Years has the Team who was down 3-0, come back to force a GAME 6...ONLY 3 TIMES has there been a GAME 6 !!! So it is obvious that historically this is not a very winnable position to be in for the Sharks in Tonight's Game 5....
Lets go ahead and take the +130 which may even go up as we approach game time and the public begins adding the Sharks to their wagers for the evening...and look for the team who is really playing some excellent hockey since the Playoffs began, to take Game 5 on the Road and advance to the next round of the Playoffs and face the Redwings who closed out their series last night.
Re: Friday Service Plays
1) Ethan Law > Get more Picks
Today's Pick: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (MLB: 7:05 ET)
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Today's Pick: UTAH JAZZ -7.5 (NBA: 10:35 ET)
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Today's Pick: Rockets / Jazz OVER 180.5 (NBA: 10:30 ET)
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5) LT Profits
Today's Pick: DALLAS STARS (NHL: 10:05 ET)
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Today's Pick: PASS
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Today's Pick: CHICAGO CUBS (MLB: 8:15 ET)
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Today's Pick: OAKLAND A'S -1.5 (MLB: 10:05 ET)
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Today's Pick: FLORIDA MARLINS (MLB: 7:10 ET)
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10) Alex Smart
Today's Pick: DETROIT TIGERS (MLB: 8:10 ET)
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Re: Friday Service Plays
TEDDY COVERS/ SERVANSKY
Cleveland Gladiators +11.5 (-110) / 5 units
I haven’t stepped in front of Philadelphia yet this season, and I might not step in front of them again, but this spot is simply too good to pass up. Yes, the Soul proved 100% that they are the best team in the AFL right now with their dominating performance against Dallas on Monday Night in a battle of unbeaten teams. But that game ended less than 96 hours before the kickoff of this game, not enough time to rest up, devise a gameplan and execute it effectively. The public saw Philly destroy Dallas on Monday Night, one week after they destroyed the Destroyers on Monday Night. Asking the Soul to win by nearly two touchdowns on the road in this spot, even for the best team in the league, is a little bit ridiculous.
The Soul are very banged up defensively right now, putting a pair of DB’s on injured reserve following Monday Night’s blowout. Brian Mance is the team’s second leading tackler. Mike Brown is the team’s third leading tackler. Between them, they have 12 pass breakups, three forced fumbles, five fumble recoveries and five interceptions. Brown is also their kick returner, averaging more than 19 yards per return (on a 50 yard field) with three kick return touchdowns. No one else on the team has returned more than one kick all season. Their absence certainly is not reflected in this pointspread – it wasn’t announced until a day after the lines came out, and the line hasn’t moved an inch since the announcement.
Cleveland played one of their worst games of the season last weekend, on the road against a red hot Dragons squad. The Gladiators offense has been much better at home this year, putting up 61, 66 and 66 points in their three previous home games, scoring touchdowns on 25 of their 33 meaningful possessions in those games. And let’s not forget Cleveland ’s stellar performance on special teams either, with Otis Amey, Robert Redd and Willis Marshall all averaging in the range of 20 yards per return, while kicker Jason Ball has connected on 11 of 15 field goal attempts and 50 of his 58 extra point tries.
The Gladiators defense is not very good, to put it mildly. Even on a short week, Philly has the best offense in the league, scoring 65 points per game, with 71 and 76 point outbursts on the road against the two other weak defenses that they’ve faced away from home in ‘08. I expect Cleveland to trade scores with Philly from start to finish in this ballgame, giving us two separate plays on the game: Take Cleveland AND Take the Over. Current Lines: Cleveland +11.5, Over 116.5. Reduce wager size to 0.5 unit at Cleveland +8 and Over 120.
Philadelphia Soul/Cleveland Gladiators Over116.5 / 4 units