Monday's MLB Tip Sheet

Monday's MLB Tip Sheet

Monday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards

There are 11 games on today’s MLB card, including five afternoon contests to get bettors warmed up for the national-title game and the MLB matchups under the lights. Let’s take a look at a few of the highlights…

**Rays at Yankees**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Yankees as minus 210 favorites with a total of 10½ flat (minus 110 either way). Gamblers can back Joe Girardi’s team on the run line for a plus 105 return.

--New York (3-3, -244) captured a 2-0 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday as a minus 190 ‘chalk.’ C.M. Wang fanned six batters in six scoreless innings of work. Hideki Matsui went 3-for-4 with a pair of RBIs, while Mariano Duncan worked a perfect ninth for his third save of the season.

--Tampa Bay (3-2, +266) will give the starting nod to Jason Hammel, who has a 3-11 career record with a 6.70 ERA. This will be Hammel’s first outing of the year.

--Girardi will counter with Mike Mussina (0-1, 4.76 ERA), who has a 16-7 record and 3.50 ERA in 29 lifetime starts against Tampa Bay.

--The ‘under’ is 5-1 overall for the Yankees, 3-2 for the Rays.

**Braves at Rockies**

--LVSC opened Colorado (1-5, -458) as a minus 122 favorite with a total of 10 flat. As of early this morning, most spots had the Rockies at minus 115. Bettors can earn a huge payout by backing the Rockies on the run line at plus 170.

--Atlanta (3-3, -112) has won back-to-back games at home over the Mets, including Sunday’s 3-1 win as a plus 140 underdog. John Smoltz worked five scoreless innings, striking out six. Make Teixeira belted a two-run homer for the Braves in the eighth inning.

--Colorado has lost five in a row since winning its season opener. The Rockies have scored just eight runs during the slide. They were swept by Arizona in a three-game series in Denver over the weekend.

--Aaron Cook (0-1, 6.00) has a 0-1 record and 5.68 ERA in five career starts against the Braves.

--Tom Glavine (0-0, 1.80) owns an 11-6 record and 3.07 ERA in 28 career starts against Colorado.

--Rockies slugger Todd Helton is 11-for-27 (.407) against Tom Glavine with three doubles and one homer. Meanwhile, Chipper Jones is 6-for-15 (.400) off Cook with a pair of doubles and one homer.

--The first pitch is scheduled for 8:35 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Baltimore RHP Daniel Cabrera owns a 5-1 career record against Seattle. The O’s host the M’s today at 3:05 p.m. Eastern in a pick ‘em matchup.

--San Diego RHP Gregg Maddux is seeking his 348th career win today at San Francisco. Maddux has a 28-14 record and 2.90 career ERA against the Giants, who are mired in the cellar of the NL West with Colorado.

--St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols is hitless in nine career at-bats against Houston LHP Wandy Rodriguez.

--Not only is Detroit winless through six games, but the Tigers have an atrocious money total of minus 1007. That’s more than 10 units of losses already.

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MLB Tips and Trends

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox


Twins: Minnesota's Nick Blackburn suffered a tough-luck loss 1-0 in his first start of the season against the Angels, allowing just 1 run and 5 hits in 7 innings with 1 walk and 6 strikeouts. Blackburn made 1 appearance against the White Sox as a rookie last year, pitching 2 scoreless innings of relief.

Twins are 5-13 in their last 18 games as an underdog.
The UNDER is 8-3 in Minnesota's last 11 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 3 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)

White Sox (-150, O/U 9): Chicago's Javier Vazquez will try to rebound from a rough first start of the season, as he took the loss at Cleveland last Wednesday after giving up 4 runs and 5 hits in 5 innings. Vazquez walked 4 and struck out 6, and he will need to overcome a career mark of 4-5 and 4.82 ERA vs. Minnesota in the home opener for the Sox.

White Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 games as a favorite.
White Sox are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
The OVER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

Rays: Jason Hammel gets his first start of the season tonight. Hammel was supposed to get the nod last Thursday in Baltimore but the game was postponed, pushing his season debut to Monday. That’s not good news for the Rays because in four career starts against the Yankees, Hammel has a lofty ERA of 6.42 and a WHIP of 1.63.

Rays are 2-8 on Hammel's last 10 starts on grass.
The OVER is 15-5-2 in the last 22 meetings.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 5

Yankees (-200, O/U 10.5): Mike Mussina has owned the Rays over his career, going 16-7 with an ERA of 3.50 in 29 starts. The Moose will be making his second appearance of the season after an average opening start against the Blue Jays where he got the loss, giving up four runs in 5.2 innings of work.

Yankees are 7-1 in Mussina's last 8 home starts vs. Tampa Bay.
The OVER is 9-2 in Mussina's last 11 starts overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 7

St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros

Cardinals: St. Louis pitcher Todd Wellemeyer will look to build off an impressive first start of the season, as he allowed just 1 run and 4 hits in 5 innings of an 8-3 win last Wednesday. Wellemeyer is 1-0 lifetime vs. Houston with a 5.27 ERA.

Cardinals are 10-2 in Wellemeyer's last 12 starts overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Astros (-115, O/U 9): Houston's Wandy Rodriguez was a far better pitcher at Minute Maid Park last season, going 6-3 with a 2.94 ERA. However, Rodriguez has struggled mightily against the Cardinals during his career with a 1-4 mark and 6.59 ERA in 6 appearances, including 5 starts..

The UNDER is 14-3 in Houston's last 17 games overall.
The UNDER is 8-2 in Houston's last 10 home games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side Play of the Day)

Cleveland Indians at LA Angels

Indians (-120, O/U 8.5): Cleveland's Fausto Carmona did not allow more than 3 runs in any of his road starts last season, going 9-4 with a 2.80 ERA in 16 appearances. Carmona is coming off a dominating effort to start the season, allowing just 1 run and 4 hits in 7 innings of a 7-2 win over Chicago.

Indians are 23-7 in their last 30 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - C Victor Martinez (hamstring) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5

Angels: LA's Joe Saunders has been able to start each of the previous 2 seasons strong, going 6-0 to open the 2007 season and 4-0 in 2006. Saunders followed suit in his first start of 2008, giving up only 4 hits in 8 scoreless innings at Minnesota in a 1-0 win last Wednesday. “It felt great, and I had a lot of fun,” Saunders said. “Guys have to step up, you know? Myself included. That’s what I tried to do tonight - step up.”

Angels are 22-10 in Saunders' last 32 starts.
The UNDER is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

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NATIONAL LEAGUE

L.A. Dodgers (4-2) at Arizona (4-2)


The Diamondbacks open their home campaign at Chase Field with newly acquired Danny Haren (0-0, 4.50 ERA) on the hill against veteran Dodgers righthander Esteban Loaiza (0-1, 3.38).

Arizona finished a three-game sweep in Colorado Sunday with a 5-2, 10-inning victory, going 4-2 on the road in the opening week of the season. Meanwhile, Los Angeles comes into this one having taken two of three in San Diego over the weekend, including a 3-2 Sunday victory when the Dodgers scored a ninth-inning run off Padres closer Trevor Hoffman.

The Dodgers won the season series against Arizona last season 10-8, and they have gone 8-3 in their last 11 trips to the desert.

Haren gave up three runs on four hits in six innings of work in his first start on Wednesday in Cincinnati, as the DBacks blew a 5-3 ninth-inning lead and fell 6-5. Against the Dodgers, Haren is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in two appearances, including one start.

Loaiza’s only appearance this season came in relief Wednesday when he threw 2 2/3 innings against the Giants after a rain delay and got tagged with the loss, giving up one run on two hits. For his career against Arizona, Loaiza is 0-4 with a 6.05 ERA in seven career starts spanning 38 2/3 innings.

The under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings, 12-5 in the D’Backs’ last 17 overall and 9-3 in their last 12 against National League West competition. Conversely, the over for the Dodgers is on streaks of 10-2 in the opening game of a series and 20-7-2 when they play on Mondays.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Cleveland (3-3) at L.A. Angels (4-3)


The Indians send young phenom Fausto Carmona (1-0, 1.29 ERA) to the mound at Angel Stadium in Anaheim to face southpaw Joe Saunders (1-0, 0.00).

The Tribe snapped a three-game losing streak with Sunday’s 2-1 victory in Oakland, salvaging the final game of a three-game set against the A’s. Good news for Indians’ fans is they are on streaks of 16-5 against a southpaw starter, 24-7 as a favorite and 25-9 when Carmona has toed the rubber.

Los Angeles fell 10-4 at home to the Rangers on Sunday, dropping two of three over the weekend to its division foes. The Angels have gone 22-10 in Saunders’ last 32 starts and 13-6 when he takes the hill in front of the home fans.

These teams split 10 games last season, with the Angels taking four of the last six – all in Anaheim.

Carmona shut down the White Sox on Tuesday, allowing just one run on four hits in seven innings of a 7-2 Cleveland victory. He went 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA in 32 starts (215 innings) last season. Carmona has never started against the Angels, but he has pitched 5 2/3 innings of relief, allowing no runs and four hits.

Saunders completely baffled the Twins on Wednesday, tossing four-hit ball over eight shutout innings on just 80 pitches. He was 8-5 with a 4.44 ERA in 18 starts last season covering 107 1/3 innings last year. Against the Tribe in his career, Saunders is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA in 13 2/3 innings of work.

The under is 8-1 in the last nine series clashes and 7-4-2 in the Angels’ last 12 overall. The under is also 11-3 in Carmona’s last 14 road outings and 5-2 in his last seven when facing teams from the A.L. West. However, the over is 6-1 in the Angels last seven as a home ‘dog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

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