Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

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NHL 100*  St. Louis Blues

mvbski
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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Anything from Kelso Sturgeon today?

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

INDIAN COWBOY

NBA: (3)

Kings +11 (3 units)

I will take a shot on the ML in this game for 1 unit, but waiting to see the line shoot up in the morning. Until then, the write-up for this game is as follows. Also waiting on the Bobcats vs. Celtics game as well so the card is not nearly finalized. Will not have any college plays on tap today likely although I am tempted to take the under in the UNC vs. Kansas game as Kansas is a more defensive team than people give them credit for. But, of course, a bet not made is better than a bet lost, so no thanks. After this game, will do the research on the MLB game. As per this game - this is a game that the Kings can win outright. They have won their last 3 ballgames, are coming on strong near the end of the season and who knows if this team was healthy, they could have done some big things at home, but they lost by 1point to the Nuggets on a buzzer beater in a game they could have won outright. This is a big revenge game, the Nuggs will likely win this game but the Kings are playing great basketball, they beat a Clippers team that had Elton Brand back and beat them by double-digits, they beat the Rockets outright at home, they pounded the Sonics on the road. I'll gladly take the Kings with the double-digit points here and take a shot on the ML for a unit once the line comes out. The Road team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 ballgames and the Kings are 4-1 ATS as dogs of 11 points or greater.

KINGS ML (1 unit) - No line yet.

Bobcats +9.5 Released to Clients as an early play due to potential Boston injuries last night.

CBB: (1)

Kansas/UNC Under 160

I understand there is a lot of love here for the Tarheels and the over, but I will gladly take the under in this ballgame. Do people realize that the Jayhawks have given up 60 points or less in their last 3 ballgames in this tourney. They gave up 57, 57 and 56 points. Kansas is a dynamic defensive team and frankly I think they win outright, but I love the under more. Take UNC outside of their home court essentially in the state of North Carolina, I believe their scoring will be affected and this game will end up in the mid 140's as there is huge value in this under. I believe there is simply to much a public push on the over and I expect this game to get off to a slow start, get off to a faster start in the 2nd half, but not enough to go over as once again this game goes to the mid 140's and closes out below the posted total.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Vegas Runner Final Card

Kansas 4.0 vs  North Carolina 5* NCAA FINAL FOUR GAME of the YEAR

Well you gotta love Bodog when you are looking to back the Dog...and that is exactly what we have decided to do with this Match-Up and if you have received all of the Plays for this Final Four, you will see how we stated that choosing the Unit amounts was tougher than the plays...so lets get right to it because we have some more BOMBS to DROP with BOTH SIDES and TOTALS Tonight as well as the TEASER PLAY of the DAY...

This one will live up to the hype and thats because both these teams can play and they are willing to put on an exciting brand of basketball...but the difference in this one is the POINT-SPREAD...and lets be honest, North Carolina has no business at all being a 4pt Fav, or even a 2/3 Pt fav, and regardless of the outcome...it will not change that fact...when this Tournament first began Kansas would have been a Pick'em at the most and because of the public's love for UNC, we possibly would have seen -1....but like I have said countless times...these lines are not based on facts and stats...they are based on public perception when it comes to such a marquee game like this...

And the public has seen North Carolina blow away the competion like they were playing high-school teams and I know because we were on them...and that is the only thing the public remembers...as well as Davidson taking a last shot to actually be in this game rather than the Jayhawks...and that is the only reason we are seeing this many points for Kansas....

The Bottom Line here is that when you talk about big games like this one...DEFENSE WINS !!!...we saw it already 2 times in the past 48hrs with both OHIO ST and TULSA...and more importantly..we also saw the team who is able to play at a much slower Tempo win Both of those games...and this evening, we all know which of these teams is both the better defensive team, as well as the slower paced team....and where we will see Kansas run is when N Carolina crashes them offensive boards but doesn't come away with the rebound...and then its transition baskets the other way, all evening long....

Lets face it, for Kansas although this is the most important game they will have ever played as a unit...last week's win over Davidson is a very close 2nd....and that pressure that they had on them was so evident, and the reason we took the Points with Davidson and Cashed last weekend...

Like I say, we have all seen these teams play a lot this late in the season and we also have watched them in the Tournament, so I'm not going to waste your time talking about stats like FG% and 3pt shooting because thats available to us everywhere...but I prefer to touch on the factors that really matter when wagering on sports, and besides the 2 teams playing...the main objective is to BEAT the NUMBER..and that is what we need to always keep in mind...

And as I explained, the Bottom Line is that this one is just TOO HIGH to leave alone and I will go a step further and tell you that I really think that we will be seeing Kansas in the National Championship come Monday because they have all the components to get there...They will have the size advantage, defensive advantage, maturity advantage, and even offensively I make it a pick'em...and now we get to take them with 4Points because the betting public watched Carolina take care of business the way that they did...

Well, I'm all over it...so lets take the generous spot although we shouldn't be needing it...and we have been able to go "30-14" in this Tournament...and the ride isn't over yer...as we intend on CASHING this 5* FINAL FOUR GAME of the YEAR...make sure to check out the other selections because as I stated, out biggest problem was deciding on the Units because we feel they are all very strong plays that offer a huge edge for such big games.


UCLA 3.0 vs  Memphis 2* WAGER  BUY the 1/2 POINT to +3

Now we were actually planning to make this the 3* BEST BET of the DAY...but as we were putting the pieces together we realized that you guys have learned to follow along correctly and you do play these wagers the way we urge...and therefore, we have decided that by using UCLA in the TEASER PLAY of the DAY, we are able to extract the Units we had hoped, and get an even better Number doing it...and thats the only reason why...

Because we absolutely believe that the WRONG TEAM is FAVORED...Yes, thats exactly what I said...and I made UCLA a 1pt Favorite and I was being generous to Memphis because they had played so well in the Tournament, blowing teams away and therefore the general public would be all over them...now if you think that my numbers are way off, let me also tell you that 4 of the 5 LVSC Oddsmakers also made UCLA between a 1 & 2 Point FAV, and the 5th guy would have done the same if Memphis would have beaten Texas by less than 8 pts...but they didn't and after consulting with the books, it was obvious what the public perception would think about this game...and so far they have not been disappointed....

Memphis was Ranked around 5th in the Oddsmakers Poll through the month of Feb and then the Tournament began and the only thing the public remembers is that this team looked incredible and even hit their FT...

But today, they face a team who is not only well coached, but comes from a much tougher conference....I really believe that Memphis is going to have a lot of Problems finding ways to score points against the Bruins because of the size difference...and Memphis is just so used to being able to take advantage of teams because of their size but today that will not be the case...and if they have to resort to making this a perimeter style game...they could be in for a long afternoon...

Now we have to touch upon FT because they are a big factor when talking about Memphis...and even though they shot well last game, its not hard to do with a 15 point lead....but guys, nobody and I mean nobody can defy probability forever, and the facts are...this team struggles from the line...so we already have an edge...then we look at the offense and defense, and these are extremely close, but in the end...defensively, UCLA gets the nod and their style of defense just matches up so well in this one...

Finally...we look at the tempo and what we see here is what I have talked about today and all through the Tournament...its the slower paced team that can make the opponent play that brand of ball, rather than the other way around...and UCLA will definately look to GRIND it out and play 1/2 court basketball and just rely on their defense to generate offense...

So lets go ahead and grab the points with the BRUINS and look for them to be playing in the National Championship on Monday Night.


UCLA vs Memphis 2* TEASER PLAY of the DAY

UCLA +8 & KANSAS +9.5 (2*) Teaser....Now you can see why we choose to make the Total a 3* and UCLA only a 2* because we are able to get even more Value with the Teaser...

UCLA vs Memphis 1* TEASER WAGER

UNDER 140 MEM/UCLA & OVER 153.5 KAN/NCAR (1*) Teaser


UCLA / 813 Memphis Under 135.0 2* TOTAL WAGER

Throughout the Tournament, we have not been worried of losing sales to guarantee that we not only put in as much work as possible, but more importantly, also have a chance to use all the sources that we have access to...and that is why we have waited to Upload our Selections into the Package until not only the day of the game, but also, until only hours to Tip-Off....and that approach has allowed us to go "30-14" so far in this Tournament on these Heavy Hitters and an even more impressive "13-4" on our Biggest Bets....and although we are still Confirming the rest of the card...we see a number up now that we feel the need to take advantage is now...

We definately believe that it is possible that with all the Public Money coming in on the Over in this contest, that the chance of this Total going up is definately present...but with Bodog offering it up at 135, I just can't leave it to chance that the Wiseguys come in and blast this Total Under and then have us looking at a 132....

The Botttom Line here is the fact that as you know by know, our Totals are primarily based on our Numbers being different from what is offered and then after more work is done to see if the perceived error is justified, we make a decision on whether or not, the Value is still present...and in this case it definately is...

LVSC sent this number out to the books at 133 and the only reason for that is because of the public perception surrounding the Memphis Tigers, as well as the fact that they have seen UCLA be able to adapt when forced to pick up the pace...but I will tell you that their ratings did not show this Total to be this high...and neither did ours...I made this one 130.5 and that was with the adjustment for public perception...and it wasn't until I was informed that Head Linesmaker and CEO of LVSC, Ken White had actually brought his number out at "128", that I know I didn't miss seeing something....

If there is one thing that we have learned from this Tournament, its the fact that it is much easier to force the opponent to slow it down, than it is to make them speed it up...and I believe that UCLA will look to their defense and insist on making this a half-court game where Memphis will have more of a problem using their athleticism as an advantage...and Calipari being the excellent coach that he is, he is definately aware of this and I believe has definately worked on the 1/2 court offensive sets and is willing to grind it out and play D to try and move on...more importantly, when it comes to playing basketball in a dome, like they will be for this Final Four....depth perception is just such a huge factor and should lead to lower scoring with just that fact alone....but then when you factor in the nerves that these kids will have with so much on the line...this number of 135 is just way to high in my opinion...even though I can easily understand why the oddsmakers sent it out higher than they should have, and why the books have continued to raise it...because lets tell it like it is...the money will continue to flow on the Over...

Lets go ahead and take advantage of this number now, because I was actually even ready to go Under anything 133 and above...and this will be our first wager for the Final Four...with the rest to follow.


North Carolina / Kansas Over 159.0 3* BEST BET of the DAY

First off, I want to let you know that the most difficult part of today's decision making process wasn't the plays, because we had worked on them all week and were only waiting for some final Confirmations that we had expected would go as planned...but the problem has been for the past 30min...how to best divide the Units up so that not only are we in the best position to Profit, but that when we do...we are able to extract the most for our efforts...and although I know that many of you would have liked to see a side wager as the 3*...when you check out the Teaser Plays also, you will understand why we broke it down like we have and realize that through theTeasers, we are able to actually get down more Units on those plays....so lets get to it....

Well I already explained countless times how we come to our conclusion with Totals and I actually did so with the early one I believe...so here I will hust skip the bullshit and get to the Bottom Line...

This game is going to go Over the Total because of the amount of Possessions that both teams are going to have in this game...and if they can even just be near par for the year in terms of FG%, we shouldn't have too much problems getting there...and that is coming from a bettor who always tries to find reasons to back an Under....

The truth is, if this were a regular season game, the number would have been sent out around 164-165 and by the time the Sharps got finished sending out Buy-Orders on the Over immediately, as well as the public getting in line to do the same...we would be looking at something about 10 points higher than what we are getting tonight....and I can verify that because my own numbers brought this one out at 163 and again, I am more of an Under bettor so I tend to lean that way...LVSC had their oddsmakers all over the place for this one and I heard that the number 164 is what was floating around...but of course they need to take public perception into accout because as I've said...they are not trying to come out with a perfect number based on their ratings, but instead, a number that will protect their clients the books from both the betting public, as well as Professional Bettors like myself....

And on a weekend like this, believe me because I have been in the middle of this kind of game..and their main concern is the betting public before the sharps...

I expect both teams to really play loose, especially Kansas who got that pressure off them with the win over Davidson....and what is even more important, is the fact that these 2 teams both like to run, and unlike so many of the games where we had a contrast of styles, in this one, we will see both trying to out-do the other...

The reason the number is so low is because the game is so meaningful and therefore we will see much more 1/2 court plays being set up than if it was during the season...but with that said....I see no reason at all that this one will not fly over...

Finally, not surprising, it appears that the general public has gone the way the oddsmakers had envisioned and are definately leaning towards the Under, while the Sharps went Over 158 as soon as it went up...and I am not seeing any buy-back anywhere...

Lets go ahead and play this one OVER the Total as our 3* BEST BET and look to Improve on our "13-4" BIG BET Record for the Tournament.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

The 'Sportsmen'

5* UCLA+ 1 unit
5* Kan/NC Over 1 unit
5* Atl. Hawks+

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Seabass Insider/Vegas Steam

Under 134 UCLA/Memphis

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