Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Keith Martin Sports

Final HAMMER play of the CBB season

UCLA OVER

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Lockline Sports

Opinions Only

Ucla
Kansas


Joe Wiz

Red Sox
Rockies


Lock of the Day

GOY North Carolina


#1 Sports Lock

North Carolina

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Michael Cannon

50 Dime

UCLA

Take Ucla over Memphis tonight in the first game of the Final Four.

The wrong team is favored here folks, there’s no question about it.

Ucla is without question more solid in all phases of the game, including offense. I know the Bruins have struggled at times to put points on the board, but believe me they are going to put a clinic on against Memphis tonight.

Memphis benefited from playing in a joke of a conference, but I will grant them their due for getting to the Final Four. But when it comes time for tip off tonight, the Tigers will understand why the Bruins are the most accomplished defensive team in the country.

Memphis thrives on its dribble-drive motion offense, in which it overwhelms its opponent with constant penetrations into the defense until their opponent yields a lay-up or an uncontested 3-pointer.

The problem Memphis is going to have tonight is Ucla’s ability to cut off the penetration with guards Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook. This will force Memphis to rely on its perimeter game and I’ll gladly take my chances with the Bruins if it comes down to that.

Ucla also has the advantage on the inside with Kevin Love.

The super-frosh has the potential to get Joey Dorsey into foul trouble, which will seriously hinder the Tigers’ chances of winning this game.

Ucla may not be the best shooting team left in the tournament, but their defense and fundamentals are so sound under coach Ben Howland it’s hard not to like them as the small dog here.

The final dagger against Memphis is its always controversial foul shooting. I know the Tigers shut all their critics up by nailing 30 of 36 from the charity stripe against Texas, but that’s an aberration. This is still the same team that shot 59 percent from the foul line for the season.

I like Ucla to control the pace of this game tonight, and as a result I like them to pull away in the second half.

Take the Bruins as they move on to the championship Monday night.


20 Dime

NORTH CAROLINA

Take the Tarheels as the small chalk tonight over the Jayhawks.

Two great teams squaring off here, no question about it.

But North Carolina is playing too solid right now for me to go against them. They’ve won all four of their tournament games by double digits, and truth be told they looked in control in every single one of those games from the opening tip.

Now, you could argue that Louisville had the momentum in the second half of last week’s 83-73 loss to the Tarheels, but the thing that struck me the most about that game was how hard Louisville had to work just to get back in the game, and then Carolina would just jump back out to a six or seven-point lead just like that.

It seemed almost effortless for North Carolina to thwart the momentum of the Cardinals and get back in control of the game.

Kansas looked tight to me in last week’s two-point win over Davidson. The Jayhawks played like they didn’t want to lose instead of forcing the tempo of the game like the Tarheels have done each time out.

I know Kansas likes to run, but they would be foolish to try and do so against North Carolina. First of all, the Tarheels can outrun any team in the country.

There’s no question about that.

Secondly, if Kansas tries to run when Sasha Kahn is on the floor, they will get buried. Kahn cannot keep up with Tyler Hansbrough and I would love to see him try. Kahn has been a spark off the bench for Kansas, but he’s out of his element here tonight.

I could fill the rest of this analysis with pointspread streaks that North Carolina is on right now, but the simple truth is North Carolina is the better team here.

They can run better than Kansas and they’re going to outrebound the Jayhawks as well. Kansas won’t be able to go on any runs here tonight because when they do score, the Tarheels will push the ball up the court and neutralize it with a quick basket on the other end.

Lay the points with North Carolina as they grab the win and cover.

5 Dime

PADRES (With Peavy as listed pitcher)

Take the Padres as the small home favorite for the win this afternoon over the Dodgers.

I know Brad Penny is getting the start for Los Angeles, but his presence only gives us a better price on the Padres.

Penny is just 3-6 with a 5.61 ERA in 14 career games against San Diego, and when you consider both teams play in pitchers' ballparks, that ERA is mighty alarming.

The Padres will counter with arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Jake Peavy.

The San Diego right-hander has sparkled with a 9-1 record and a 2.30 ERA in 18 career games against the Dodgers.

Now how can you argue against numbers like that?

You can’t.

Peavy is the better pitcher and the Padres get the home win here today.

ROYALS (With Meche as listed pitcher)

Take the Royals for the road win this afternoon over the Twins.

Kansas City has bolted out of the gates this season to an improbable 3-1 start. They could very well be 4-0, but they dropped a 4-3 decision to the Twins last night.

I like them to bounce back today behind staff ace Gil Meche.

Meche is 6-3 with a 4.05 ERA in 12 career games against Minnesota.

The Twins will counter with Livan Hernandez, who was signed to fill the void left by the departure of Johan Santana.

Hernandez isn’t even close to being the caliber of pitcher that Santana is, and the fact that he’s the No. 1 pitcher in the rotation tells you how weak the Twins are in that department this year.

Take Kansas City as they bounce back with the road win.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Ross Benjamin

20* Memphis

15* Kansas

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Play By Play Inc.

MEMPHIS at UCLA Over 134.5

KANSAS at NORTH CAROLINA Over 159

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Gamblers World TIP OF THE DAY

Prediction: UCLA Tigers

Current Line: -1 Over/Under: 134.5 Reason: The bracket makers and the oddsmakers both had it right. The Alamodome will get a Final Four with all the top seeds, with the South Region champion Memphis Tigers looking to knock off the UCLA Bruins, winners of the West Region, on Saturday. Memphis nailed 30-for-36 on free throws in their South final, eliminating questions about that facet of their game, while UCLA got balanced scoring in rolling to an easy win. Oddsmakers currently have the Tigers listed as 1-point favorites versus the Bruins, while the game's total is sitting at 134½. The Tigers defeated Texas 85-67 as a 3.5-point favorite in the Elite 8 on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (144.5). Chris Douglas-Roberts scored a game-high 25 points, while Derrick Rose added 21 points in the win. Kevin Love dropped 19 points and pulled down 10 rebounds as UCLA defeated Xavier 76-57 in the Elite 8 on Saturday. UCLA covered as 6-point favorites as the game played over the 129-point total set by oddsmakers. Team records: Memphis: 37-1 SU, 19-19 ATS UCLA: 35-3 SU, 22-14-1 ATS Memphis most recently: When playing on Saturday are 6-4 After playing Texas are 2-0 After a win are 10-0 UCLA most recently: When playing on Saturday are 5-5 After playing Xavier are 1-0 After a win are 10-0 A few trends to consider: Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games UCLA is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games The total has gone OVER in 6 of UCLA's last 9 games UCLA is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Ferrall

PIRATES +105 on moneyline over Marlins--Maholm beat the Marlins in South Florida.

TWINS -110 on ML over Royals--Livan Hernandez beats Gil Meche in the Homerdome

SEATTLE -120 on ML over Baltimore--Mariners Batista wins at Camden. He led the Mariners with 16 wins last yr.

BLUES -120 on ML over Jackets--St.Louis wins their last game of the season at home over Columbus. Jackets have lost 6 straight on the road

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Sebastian

300* Kansas
20* UCLA

20* Sac/Den Under

100* St Louis Blues

20* Red Sox
20* Indians
20* Cubs

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Ben Burns

HUGE GAME ALERT

Kansas


Over/Under Annihilator

Under UCLA/Memphis

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Matt Fargo

This line is heavy on Cincinnati because of the pitching mismatch, but Philadelphia's offense can put a whipping on Aaron Harang. Play the Phillies as the road dogs vs. the Reds.

Looking at this line makes you wonder what is going on but then you look at the starting pitching and it makes a little more sense. However, the starting pitching is not all that much in favor of the Reds after all as explained later.
Phillies +142 at Cincinnati Reds

The Phillies won the first meeting of this series last night and, after dropping the first two games of the season, they are on a modest two-game winning streak. What is important is the fact that Philadelphia has scored eight runs in each of the wins and this offense is potent enough to continue that.

Aaron Harang has been a workhorse for the Reds and he has turned into the ace of the staff. His numbers do back that up as he has posted back-to-back 16-win seasons while his ERA remained consistent, going from 3.76 to 3.73. His numbers between 2006 and 2007 are nearly identical so it should be another above average season. However, this is a team that he does not want to face, especially with the way it is currently hitting. Harang has a 7.39 ERA in five starts against the Phillies and is 0-5 in quality starts.

Adam Eaton had a miserable first season in Philadelphia and hopes to turn that around. He conceded that he went through 2007 without feeling close to “100 percent healthy” and that was the case during the spring as well as he had a back issue. That is part of the reason he had a tough spring, going 0-3 with a 7.41 ERA in five starts but he is healthy once again. Eaton has started five games in his career against the Reds, going 2-0 with a 4.35 ERA which is much better compared to his counterpart.

Philadelphia falls into a great situation that is an early season profit gainer. Play against teams in the first 12 games of the season after finishing the prior year with four or fewer wins in their final 15 games. This situation is 39-16 (70.9 percent) since 1997.

The Phillies have won 20 of the last 28 meetings in Cincinnati and they should once again feast on a right-handed starter. This price is simply too great to pass up as Philadelphia continues the domination of Harang and the Reds. Play Philadelphia for a unit.

Pick: Phillies +142

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

John Fina

Selection: Denver Nuggets -11

Today the Sacramento Kings will be on the road as they take on the Denver Nuggets. We will lay the points with the Denver Nuggets! The Denver Nuggets should be able to control this game with their superior offense. The Denver Nuggets (at home) are scoring an average of 112.8 points per game, while the Sacramento Kings (on the road) are scoring an average of only 99.4 points per game. As you can see, the Denver Nuggets have the much better offense. In addition, the Denver Nuggets have been a solid at home team. In fact, the Denver Nuggets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games. Lay the points!

Denver Nuggets -11

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

BIG AL

100% ATS 5* NCAA HOOPS GAME OF THE YEAR!

5* Kansas

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Steven Budin

100 DIME PLAY

NORTH CAROLINA

Guys, since we're up some 700 dimes in football and basketball this year, I want you to spend a little extra coin and buy down the 1/2 point in the following scenarios: This line is floating between 3 and 3 1/2 points. So if you've got North Carolina -3 I want you to buy it down to -2 1/2 so you still win if the Tar Heels prevail by three points. And if you get North Carolina at -3 1/2, buy down to -3 so you get a push with a three-point victory.

I got the call for this play early Friday afternoon and released it immediately. Checking Vegas and offshore, I saw mostly -3 and -3 1/2 with only one or two notorious "superbooks" at -4 and those places always run a half-point higher with favorites. (This shows again why you should always have more than one place to play so you can shop for the best price). Nevertheless, even at -4, North Carolina is still the play.

Naturally, if you have UNC at -3 or -3 1/2, we are putting our profit to work for us by buying a little insurance and maximizing the odds in our favor. We are in essence using the power of money - our profit of 700+ dimes - against the bookmaker.

Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.

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#1 Sports

North Carolina vs. Kansas

North Carolina (36-2) earned a tune up against Mount St. Mary's (113-74) to open their run to the Final Four with their third #1 Seed under Hall of Fame Coach Roy Williams (142-32 in 5th season at Chapel Hill, following 15 seasons at Kansas) but have faced an extremely tough road since that they have negotiated easily with wins over Arkansas (108-77), Washington State (68-47), and Louisville (83-73).

An offensive powerhouse with 89.2 points per game (.491 from the field) and dominant on the boards (43.7 per game to 32.2), the Tarheels are led by the most intense player in the nation, All American 6'9" junior F Tyler Hansbrough (22.8p, 10.3r). Hansbrough is a purebred gym rat, separating himself from the country's other big men by sheer will and hour after hour improving his current shooting marks of 54.2% from the field and 80.6% from the stripe. Joining our College Player of the Year on the blocks are a trio of scrappers in starter 6'8" sophomore F Deon Thompson (8.4p, 4.1r, 51 blocks) plus 6'6" junior F Danny Green (11.4p, 4.9r, 2.0a, 46 blocks) and 6'9" sophomore F Alex Stepheson (4.4r, 4.7r) but the board work for the Heels is a team effort with no less than 6 players averaging 4.4 rebounds per game including guards 6'5" junior Marcus Ginyard (7.1p, 4.5r, 2.2a) and 6'4" sophomore Wayne Ellington (16.6p, 4.4r, 2.1a). North Carolina is efficient from behind the arc at .379 from downtown but rarely fights its battles there (556 attempts vs. 837 for opponents) with only Ellington (77 of 186) and Green (53 of 141) regularly firing from deep. Rather, they use their run and gun tempo plus slashing through the lane to create mismatches and angles for point guard 5'11" sophomore Ty Lawson to exploit with easy dumps to the big men or feeding Ellington on the move. The offensive pressure that North Carolina outs on teams has been just too much to handle, often resulting in grabbing and holding by defenders and a 960-627 advantage in free throw attempts. Hansbrough, Ellington, Lawson, and Green each shoot better than 80% from the line so pick your poison.

So can anyone stop this juggernaut from cutting down the nets Monday night? Only Duke and Maryland were able to beat this squad in 2007-2008 and they did it by spreading the ball around with balanced scoring and thievery at the perimeter. In their victories, the Blue Devils and Terrapins combined for 16 steals versus just 6 for Big Blue with 12 total players scoring between 8 and 22 points. North Carolina has by far the worst defense among the crews left dancing with 72.2 points allowed on .423 shooting from the field and .326 from behind the arc. A degree of these stats can be laughed off to the chosen tempo of Coach Williams but their ranking as 121st in two-point field goal defense is no joke.

Kansas (35-3) coasted through the first three round of the 2008 NCAA Tournament with easy wins over Portland State (85-61), Nevada-Las Vegas (75-56), and Villanova (72-57) but had to dig deep into their defensive bag of tricks to best Davidson by the score of 59-57 to reach their 3rd Final Four in the last 7 years. Winning is not a new experience for Head Coach Bill Self (140-32 in 5th season at Lawrence) with 8 conference titles in the last 10 years (1999-2000 with Tulsa, 2001-2002 with Illinois, 2005-2008 with Kansas) and defense has always been the key. This season’s Jayhawks have limited 19 opponents to under 60 points (61.2 points allowed on .379 shooting from the field) and have held 37 consecutive (109 of their last 112) foes to under 50% shooting from the field.

On the blocks Kansas may not possess the All-American talent of the other squads to reach San Antonio but they are deep with 6’9” sophomore F Darrell Arthur (12.7p, 6.1r, 49 blocks) and 6’8” senior Darnell Jackson (11.2p, 6.7r) in the starting lineup plus 6’11” senior C Sasha Kaun (7.3p, 4.0r, 49 blocks) and 6’11” freshman Cole Aldrich (2.7p, 2.9r) bringing depth off the bench that could start for most clubs in the nation. Kaun’s experience has been key in the clutch with 13 points on 6 of 6 shooting plus 6 boards versus Davidson, but it’s their guard play that has them still dancing. 6’1” junior G Mario Chalmers (12.7p, 3.1r, 4.4a, 90 steals) is the squad’s rock at the point and has racked up multiple steals in 11 straight games. 6’1” senior G Russell Robinson (7.4p, 2.8r, 4.1, 75 steals) works the co-point and has had the hot hand with 13.7 points per game over his last 3 contests. 2008 Wooden All-American 6’6” junior G Brandon Rush (13.1p, 5.1r, 2.1a) had to pull his name from the 2007 NBA Draft after tearing an ACL and has been playing the best ball of his career down the stretch with 17.7 points per over the last 6 games. 5’11” sophomore 6th man Sherron Collins (9.2p, 2.1r, 3.0a) brings a ton of energy off the bench and is an unstoppable drive and kick threat. Together, the four Jayhawk smalls have nailed 218 threes in 535 attempts and have flat-out dominated their schedule with their ball handling. Advantages of 692-429 in assists, 335-239 in steals, and a ridiculous 1.407 to 0.724 in assist to turnover ratio make clear where the strengths of Kansas lie. The perimeter belongs to the Birds, 80.6 points per game on .507 shooting from the field and .401 from behind the arc is enough firepower to hang with anyone, advantages of 225-97 in blocked shots and 38.6-30.8 on the glass indicate that their quickness is an equalizer against bigger teams…so just why is it that we can’t sell ourselves on the possibility of Coach Self getting his team to the Championship Game?

These schools have combined for 77 NCAA Tournament appearances, 31 Final Fours, and 8 National Championships, but we're still back to the question of whether anyone can stop the Tarheels on their way to cutting down the nets Monday night? The superior abilities of the Jayhawks to both shoot and steal the ball exactly mirror what Maryland and Duke excelled at to secure victories over the kids from Chapel Hill. But the answer is... no. Coach Williams' crew's last lost was on January 9th, and the calendar may turn again before they suffer their next.

North Carolina -3

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Razor Sharp Sports

Tom Hatfield

Memphis vs. UCLA

So here we are, down to the Final Four. And what a Final Four we have. For the first time ever all four of the #1 seeds have moved on. So which team will end up cutting down the nets? Will it be the Memphis Tigers, the team that held the overall #1 ranking for the longest time this season? Will it be the UCLA Bruins, the team that is making their third straight trip to the Final Four? Will it be the Kansas Jayhawks, a team that finally got their coach Bill Self into a Final Four after falling short last season as a #1? Or will it be the North Carolina Tarheels, the team that came into the Big Dance as the #1 overall ranked team? With these four teams, we should have some outstanding basketball and some incredible individual performances.

Who will step up with the biggest performances? Talk about names! Memphis has Naismith Finalist/All-American Chris Douglas-Roberts, upcoming star freshman Derrick Rose and big man in the middle Joey Dorsey! UCLA has their own Naismith Finalist/All-American Freshman Kevin Love, along with veterans Darren Collison and Josh Shipp. Then there is Kansas with their dangerous backcourt combo of Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers. Finally there is North Carolina with more than likely the Player of the Year Tyler Hansbrough teaming up with speedy guard Ty Lawson and 3-point marksman Wayne Ellington. Here we will look closer at the first match-up on Saturday where Memphis takes on UCLA.

The Tigers come into the game with a 37-1 record. They have really been rolling in March. They have won 8 of their last 9 games by at least 16 points. Freshman Derrick Rose has really stepped up as the floor general to lead this team. Put him together with high scoring Chris Douglas-Roberts and one of the biggest, tallest and longest supporting casts in the tournament and the Tigers can cause match-up problems for almost everybody. There are a couple things you may have to remember though. First, no team that had one one loss heading into the NCAA tournament has ever won the entire thing. Secondly, no team that has won 37 games or more has ever won the NCAA title. The Tigers boast both of those things. Then again, before this season, all 4 – #1 seeds made it to the Final Four, so this may be the year that these spell are all broken.

Then you have the UCLA Bruins. Talk about a team with experience. For the third year in a row, Ben Howland and his Bruins head to the Final Four. In 2006, the Bruins lost in the Finals to Florida and then last season, the fell in the semi-finals, again to the Gators. 4 players, Luc Mbah A Moute, Darren Collison, Alfred Aboya and Lorenzo Mata-Real, will be playing in their third Final Four. 3 others, Josh Shipp, Russell Westbrook and James Keefe will be playing in their second. Put this group together with All-American Freshman Center Kevin Love and you have a team that is ready to make some noise. The Bruins bring a 14 game winning streak into San Antonio.

With these two teams together, I expect some points to be scored. UCLA has been know for their defense, but they have had no trouble scoring themselves. The Bruins average 73.8 points per game. When faced with a team that wants to get up and down the court, UCLA will run with them, as seen in the Western Kentucky game where they combined for 166 points. Talk a bout teams that want to get up and down the court, Memphis loves the fast transition game. Currently they are averaging 80.3 points per game. In their 4 NCAA tournament games this year they have scores an average of 85.3 points per game and the games have averaged 154.8 points per contest. A total of 134 is a little low for these two teams.

Free winner from Razor Sharp Sports

MEMPHIS/UCLA OVER the total of 134

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Big Time Sports

Orlando at Cleveland

Two playoff bound teams hook up in Cleveland on Saturday afternoon, when the Orlando Magic face the Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena. The home team will finish second in the Central division behind Detroit, while the visitors have locked up the Southeast division title.

Orlando has been very good on the road this season, notching 24 victories in enemy territory. Main-man Dwight Howard has lead the way all season with his dominating play under the basket. Determination, focus and staying healthy have been the key factors in his 21/14 stat-line. Hedo Turkoglo (19.5) and Rashard Lewis (18.4) continue to make significant contributions to the scoring effort. Keith Bogans (9 ppg) has proven to be an important role-player, as he has come off the bench to appear in every game. The Magic is currently working without the services of Jameer Nelson, who will be a key ingredient to a deep playoff run. He's expected to return very soon. Brian Cook on the other hand, amy be lost for the season due to a hand injury suffered in the Monday (3/31) practice.

For Cleveland, it's full speed ahead with the dynamic LeBron James. This superstar is pouring in 30+ ppg, while grabbing 8+ boards, and dishing out 7+ assists per contest. He and the aforementioned Howard are both capable of taking over a game, so the test of wills in this battle will be very interesting to observe. The supporting cast features four players chipping in between 10 and 14 ppg. Six other players contribute between 5 and 8 points per game. The "alphabet twins" Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Wally Szczerbiak supply the muscle along with Joe Smith. Daniel Gibson and Delonte West form an underrated backcourt. West had 11 assists last weekend in a win over Philadelphia. Gibson is questionable at this point, as he struggles with a nagging ankle injury.

Cleveland has won 10 of their last 11 at The Q, holding the opposition to an average of 87 ppg. Orlando hasn't been quite as stingy, but they limited 10 of 14 opponents in the month of March to 98 points or fewer. We'll look for this one to feature several highlight-reel plays, but it should still come in under the total.

Free winner from Spike Measer / Big Time Sports Orlando / Cleveland under

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Sports Gambling Hotline

2* ATLANTA HAWKS +6

Always tough in this league to sweep a home-and-home, let alone cover in both contests, so we like the points to work in this spot. The Hawks had won the previous 2 meetings, and 3 of the previous 4 straight up, while going 3-0-1 against the spread in those 4 tilts. The Sixers have been hot, and they may come through with the outright here, but this number seems just a little too high for the cover. Play on the Hawks plus the points.

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Chuck Franklin

3* DENVER NUGGETS -11

The Nuggets, without a suspended Kenyon Martin, are in a must-win situation if they want to keep the Golden State Warriors from overtaking them for the eighth playoff spot in the Western Conference. Denver is a solid 31-7 at the Pepsi Center and has won nine consective home games. This will be an easy win and cover. As well as the Kings are playing lately, they have covered the spread only three times in the last 12 road games and they are only 1-4 ATS the last five games they've played after winning by more than 10 points their previous game. Denver has covered 10 of the last 13 games overall and 16 of the last 21 home games. They are on a 5-0 ATS run when playing teams with a losing record. This will be an absolute blowout!

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