NBA : Saturday Tip Sheet

NBA : Saturday Tip Sheet

Saturday Tip Sheet
By Josh Jacobs

The NBA is approaching a vital crossroad. Most teams are looking at about 10 games (give or take) left on their schedules, making the race to postseason play a mad dash to the finish.

The Eastern Conference is just a few days away from locking up the top eight seeded teams. In the West it’s a whole different story. Five of the eight squads which are currently looking for a ticket into the playoffs continue to jockey for primetime real estate in the standings.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise, but the largest separation for any given team in the West’s top eight is a total of 5½-games behind conference leading, New Orleans. That leaves us witnessing nine total clubs exchanging blows on a nightly basis.

With the fight to the finish taking on a life of its own, let’s take a peak at Saturday’s six-game card.

**Phoenix at New Jersey**

The Suns will continue a tough four-game road trip, which has seen this squad getting outscored 227-202 in the last two contests away from home. Taking all three head-to-head competitions against the Nets this season, Phoenix will look to continue scoring in droves (averaging a whopping 125.3 PPG against Jersey). If the Nets continue to surrender 108.2 PPG (its average in the last five) expect Phoenix to use this contest as a motivational boost. The Suns are 6-4 on the ‘over’ in their last 10, while New Jersey is 7-3 on the ‘over’ in the same stretch. Take a look at the ‘over’ in this contest.

**Cleveland at Detroit**

The Cavaliers have been compared to an ATM machine when taking ATS wins in games versus the Pistons. Cleveland might be just above average with a 6-4 SU record in its last 10 against Detroit, but a cash filled 9-1 ATS run has been a wagering dream. The Cavs have been posted as underdogs in six of those 10 games, taking all six against the spread. The Pistons are coming off a 1-4 ATS slide in their last five. Consider Detroit to buck Cleveland’s grasp on ATS wins when these two meet in Motown on Saturday.

**Milwaukee at Chicago**

With the Bucks shooting 40.3 percent from the field in their last four loses it could come as a surprise that the ‘over’ has gone 8-2 in the last 10. For Chicago a 9-10 ATS record versus teams with a losing record doesn’t do much in support of wagering. It can’t be overlooked that Milwaukee is a bottom feeder on the road this season. The Bucks are a stark 6-29 SU on the road but a 40-29 record on the ‘over’ gives reason to continue supporting high totals. Chicago is 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS in the last 10 versus Milwaukee. Trend wise, the ‘over’ seems like a solid play.

**Golden State at Denver**

The second to last meeting between the two teams this season carries heavy implications leading to the postseason. The Nuggets are sitting 1 ½-games outside the playoff bubble (behind Golden State). Denver is 7-2 SU in its last nine and has been on fire at the window with an 11-2 ATS rout in its last 13. Don’t forget to factor in a 15-5 record on the ‘over’ in the Nuggets last 20. The Warriors have gone 3-7 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings against Denver, while the ‘over’ has cashed in seven times in the same 10 games. The Nuggets are 10-6 ATS at home this season versus teams with a winning record. With Denver going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS at home versus Golden State in the last five, look for the home team to run-and-gun once again with the ‘over’ cashing in (Denver is scoring 122.1 PPG in its last 10).

**Charlotte at Portland**

The Trail Blazers are emerging from a 111-95 loss in Golden State, a game which witnessed the team’s sixth ATS loss in the last 10 and the fourth straight ‘under’ play. With Brandon Roy out with a groin injury (possibly missing the rest of the season), Portland’s 94.2 PPG on the season could dip even lower. Charlotte emerged victorious in its last meeting with the Blazers, winning by the score of 101-92. The ‘over’ is now 4-0 in the last four outings between the two squads. This will be the 10th road game for the Bobcats in the last 11. Charlotte is averaging a lackluster 92.8 PPG on the road this season and has allowed an inflated 103.5 PPG. Portland gets my vote on the spread.

**Memphis at L.A. Clippers**

Memphis is another club who’s not only struggled throughout the grueling season, but has also accounted for a scant 5-30 SU and 16-18-1 ATS record on the road. It’s been over a month since the Grizzlies last paid a visit to L.A. and the results where far from exceptional. The Clips scored an easy 100-86 win, covering the minus-eight-point spread and hitting the ‘under’ 197 points. This was L.A.’s sixth ATS win in its last seven meetings with Memphis. However, the Clippers are currently in a nine-game losing streak and are 17-2 SU in their last 19. Facing stiff competition in the last 10, L.A. has a good shot at covering the spread even with the absence of a portion of its roster because of injuries.

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mvbski wrote:


Saturday Tip Sheet

**Charlotte at Portland**

The Trail Blazers are emerging from a 111-95 loss in Golden State, a game which witnessed the team’s sixth ATS loss in the last 10 and the fourth straight ‘under’ play. With Brandon Roy out with a groin injury (possibly missing the rest of the season), Portland’s 94.2 PPG on the season could dip even lower. Charlotte emerged victorious in its last meeting with the Blazers, winning by the score of 101-92. The ‘over’ is now 4-0 in the last four outings between the two squads. This will be the 10th road game for the Bobcats in the last 11. Charlotte is averaging a lackluster 92.8 PPG on the road this season and has allowed an inflated 103.5 PPG. Portland gets my vote on the spread.

Fourth game in five nights and back to back games for the Bobcats tonight.Blazers -5½ looks good to me.

wink

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Lebron out late tonight whooping it up at the sweet 15 at Ford Field. Go Pistons!

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Cleveland (40-32, 34-38 ATS) at Detroit (51-21, 38-33-1 ATS)

Two Central Division rivals that are stumbling toward the finish line clash at The Palace of Auburn Hills, as the Pistons host the Cavaliers in a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference finals.

Detroit had no problems with the Heat on Thursday night, rolling to an 85-69 home victory. However, the Pistons failed to cover an astounding 20½-point spread, falling to 1-4 ATS in their last five (2-3 SU).

Cleveland was on the wrong end of a buzzer-beater on Wednesday night, losing 100-99 to the Hornets as a 1½-point home chalk. The Cavs have dropped two in a row and five of their last eight, both SU and ATS.

Going back to the end of last year’s regular season and including last year’s six-game playoff series, the home team has dominated this rivalry, going 8-1 SU. However, the Cavs have been a spread-covering machine against the Pistons over the last year, going 9-1 ATS (5-1 ATS in Detroit). In this year’s two clashes, the Pistons rolled 109-74 as a nine-point home chalk on Nov. 28, with the Cavs getting revenge 10 days ago in an 89-73 victory as a 1½-point favorite.

The underdog is 13-5 ATS in the last eight series battles.

Cleveland has dropped five straight road games (1-4 ATS) and is 1-7 in its last eight on the highway (3-5 ATS). On a positive note, LeBron and Co. are on ATS hot streaks of 7-2 after a non-cover, 18-7 in divisional clashes and 12-5 on Saturdays.

Detroit continues to sport one of the best home records in the NBA at 29-6 (21-14 ATS). That includes an ongoing five-game home winning streak (4-1 ATS). The Pistons are also 19-9 ATS in their last 28 when playing on a day of rest. However, they’re only 6-18 ATS over their last 24 Eastern Conference contests and 2-5 ATS in their last seven against Central Division rivals.

The Cavs have followed a four-game “under” streak by topping the total in their last two. Also, the over is 5-1 in Cleveland’s last six road games and 10-4-1 in its last 15 divisional tussles. Conversely, the under is on runs of 4-1 for Cleveland against the East, 4-1 for Cleveland on Saturdays, 5-0 for Detroit against the East, 4-1 for Detroit overall and 23-6 in this rivalry, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in Motown.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


Golden State (47-27, 31-40 ATS) at Denver (44-28, 40-32 ATS)


Two teams in a dogfight for the Western Conference’s eighth and final playoff spot meet in a critical contest at the Pepsi Center, where Denver hosts the Warriors in a battle of two of the NBA’s highest-scoring squads.

Golden State current occupies the coveted No. 8 spot in the West, but is just a half-game ahead of the Nuggets. Heading into Friday night’s action, only six games separated the top nine teams in the Western Conference.

The Nuggets, who crushed Dallas 118-105 as an 8½-point home chalk on Thursday, enter this contest on a four-game winning streak, and they’ve won seven of their last nine. Not only that, but Denver has been getting it done at the window, cashing in each of its last five games, nine of its last 10 and 11 of its last 13.

The Warriors have struggled with consistency over the past two weeks, alternating SU and ATS wins and losses in their last nine games, though they did crush the Blazers 111-95 as a 13-point home chalk on Thursday. Prior to that contest, Golden State had been mired in a 2-5 ATS slump.

The road underdog has taken the first two meetings of this season series, with Denver winning 124-120 as a five-point pup on Dec. 28, and the Warriors returning the favor just two days later at the Pepsi Center in a 105-95 victory as a 4½-point ‘dog. The Nuggets are 7-3 in the last 10 clashes overall (6-4 ATS) and 6-2 ATS in the last eight battles at the Pepsi Center.

The Nuggets are on ATS upticks of 16-5 at home, 10-3 versus the Western Conference and 7-1 when playing on one day of rest. However, they’re just 1-4 ATS in their last five against Pacific Division foes and 1-6 ATS in their last seven on Saturdays.

The Warriors own nothing but negative pointspread trends, including 4-12 on Saturdays, 3-10 against the West, 8-27 after a victory, 2-12 when coming off a double-digit win, 1-6 against the Northwest Division and 6-14 when playing on one day of rest.

Going back to the beginning of February, Denver is on a 20-7 “over” streak, including 10-2 “over” at home. The over is also 13-3 in Denver’s last 13 home games and 4-0 in its last four on Saturdays. Conversely, the Warriors have followed an 18-3-1 “over” tear by staying under the number in seven of its last 10. The under is also 4-1 in Golden State’s last five road games and 3-6 in its last 29 on Saturdays.

Finally, the over is 10-3 in the last 13 series meetings, though the one game in Denver this season stayed 29 points under the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER

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