Monday Service Plays
Re: Monday Service Plays
Dayton vs. Illinois State
Prediction: Illinois State Redbirds
Current Line: -7 Over/Under: 122 Reason: The season will end for either the Dayton Flyers or the Illinois State Redbirds Redbird Arena Monday. One will go home, one will advance to the next round of the NIT. Oddsmakers currently have the Redbirds listed as 7-point favorites versus the Flyers, while the game's total is sitting at 122. Dayton held off a late surge to defeated Cleveland State 66-57 in the opening round of the NIT tournament on Wednesday. Dayton covered the 7-point spread, but the 123 points fell UNDER the posted total of 127. Brian Roberts shot 7-for-10 from the field with 21 points to lead Dayton. Kurt Huelsman added 12 points, while Marcus Johnson and Andres Sandoval chipped in with 11 apiece in the win. Illinois State was outplayed in the second half, but managed to hang on and defeat Utah State 61-57 on Wednesday in the first round of the NIT tournament. Illinois State failed to cover the 7.5-point spread, and the combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 130. Osiris Eldridge led the way with 14 points, and Dinma Odiakosa added 11 in the win. Team records: Dayton: 22-10 SU, 13-14 ATS Illinois State: 25-9 SU, 15-17 ATS Dayton most recently: When playing on Monday are 5-5 After playing Cleveland State are 3-0 After a win are 5-5 Illinois State most recently: When playing on Monday are 4-6 After playing Utah State are 1-1 After a win are 6-4 A few trends to consider: Dayton is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dayton's last 5 games The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dayton's last 7 games on the road Dayton is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games Illinois State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Illinois State's last 5 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Illinois State's last 8 games Illinois State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Re: Monday Service Plays
Game: Dayton vs. Illinois State
Prediction: Illinois State Reason: I'm laying the points with ILLINOIS STATE. Neither team was happy to be here but both are seemingly determined to show people what the NCAA Tournament missed out on. I feel that the Redbirds have the advantage and that they'll be the team which advances and gets a chance to do so. The Flyers started out the year by playing very well. However, despite closing the season on a fairly high note, they've still won just eight of their past 17 games. That slide had a lot to do with the injury to 6-8 prize freshman Chris Wright, who went down for the season on Jan. 9th. Their win came in the first round came as -7 home favorites vs. Cleveland State and they lost by nine vs. Xavier in their previous game. Tonight, the Flyers will face the unenviable task of trying to win at Redbird Arena, where Illinois State is 16-1 on the season. After limiting Utah State to 57 in the first round, the Redbirds have now held seven of their past eight opponents under 60 points. For the season, they've allowed an average of just 56.2 points per game at home. The Redbirds' defense got even stronger with the return of senior guard Dom Johnson. He is arguably their best defensive player and had missed the previous five games. He returned for the MVC Tournament, steadily increasing his playing time and was up to 28 minutes against Utah State. Despite failing to cover in the first round (which has helped to keep tonight's line reasonable) the Redbirds are still a healthy 12-7-1 ATS (17-3 SU) the last 20 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. During that stretch, Dayton is just 3-10 ATS (2-11 SU) when listed as a road underdog in the +6.5 to +9 range. Without Wright in the lineup to contend with, the Redbirds have the defense to slow down Dayton's leading scorer, Roberts. I look for them to win their 15th straight non-conference home game in relatively convincing fashion. *Personal Favorite
Game: Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies Reason: I'm taking the points with MEMPHIS. The general public will look at this game and many will say to themselves: "This one is easy. The Nuggets are a good team and they've got a lot to play for. The Grizzlies are a bad team and they've got nothing to play for..." Granted, all that is true. However, I often look at things differently than most and I see Memphis having several advantages. For starters, based on public perception (see above) the line was somewhat inflated to begin with and has already been bet up from its opener. That gives us excellent line value. Next, the Grizzlies may not have anything to play for but they've actually quietly been playing some of their best basketball of the season recently. In fact, since getting embarrassed by these same Nuggets nearly two weeks ago, the Grizzlies have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS (3-2 SU) including back to back outright victories. Even the two losses were by just three points (at Golden State!) and by four points, at Minnesota. Note that the Grizzlies are 7-4 SU the last 11 times they hosted the Nuggets and that none of the four losses came by more than four points. A closer look at the 3/12 loss at Denver shows that the Grizzlies were in a very tough scheduling spot, as they were facing a rested Denver team and were playing in the high altitude after coming off a game vs. the high-flying Suns the previous night. This time, it's the Grizzlies who have the schedule in their favor. While the Grizzlies had yesterday off, Denver played a hard fought game vs. the Raptors up in Canada. The Nuggets, who could easily get caught looking ahead to their next four games (Dallas, Golden State and a home and home vs. Phoenx) are now playing both the second of back to back games and also their fifth game in the past seven days. With the Nuggets at 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS) the last seven times (1-9 SU L10) they played the second of back to back games, I feel that taking the generous points with the revenge-minded home dog is the way to go.*Western Conf. GOW
Game: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Seattle SuperSonics
Prediction: Seattle SuperSonics Reason: I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. While I respect the results the Blazers have achieved this season, the Sonics should be happy to see them come to town. For starters, the Blazers represent a step down in class from their recent opponents as their last four games came against the Jazz, Suns, Lakers and Nuggets, three of which came on the road. Additionally, the Sonics have played well against the Blazers this season. In fact, they lost by only four points at Portland in February and beat the Blazers by a dozen in the lone meeting here at Seattle. Including that result, the Sonics have won seven of their last nine home games against Portland. Note that the two losses came by only nine combined points, losing by four and five points respectively. The Blazers managed a victory in their most recent road game (at LA Clippers) by 11 points. However, they had gone just 6-12 SU in their 18 previous road games and NONE of those six victories came by more than seven points. Despite earning the cover at LA, the Blazers are still just 44-61 (42%) ATS the past three seasons when facing a team with a losing record. It's also worth noting that they only managed 83 points in their last game and that they're 10-15 ATS the last 25 times they failed to score 85 or more points in their previous game. During that stretch, the Sonics have gone 33-28-2 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive losses. Facing a team which they know they can compete against, I expect a huge effort from the Sonics and won't be surprised if they score outright win. *Northwest Divisional GOW
Game: Ottawa Senators vs. Montreal Canadiens
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Montreal and Ottawa to finish UNDER the number. The first two meetings of this season series, back in October and November, had over/under lines of 5.5. One game went 'over' and one game went 'under.' Several months later, with much more on the line, we're getting an over/under line of six. I feel that the extra half goal gives us excellent value for a game in which I'm expecting to be tight and relatively low-scoring. The Sens lost 5-4 last time out. However, they had seen the UNDER go 7-1 their previous eight games with none of those games producing more than six combined goals. For the season, they've seen the UNDER go 17-12 after scoring four or more goals in their previous game and 18-11 when facing a team with a winning record. That brings the UNDER to 73-56-5 (56.6%) when they've faced winning teams the past three seasons. The Canadiens come off a 3-2 shootout win over Boston on Saturday. That brought the UNDER to 5-2 their last seven games with only one of those producing more than six goals - it had seven. For the season, the Canadiens have seen the UNDER go 9-4-3 when playing a home game with an over/under line of six or greater, 46-32-9 in that situation the past three seasons. With Montreal goalie Carey Price sporting a 1.38 goals-against-average in his last five home starts, I don't expect to see Ottawa have back to back big offensive outbursts. Look for the final combined score to be lower than expected. *Annihilator
Re: Monday Service Plays
Iron Horse 10* NIT Total Of The Year
Game: UAB at Virginia Tech
Reason: Virginia Tech, known for their stingy defnese that's holding foes to just 64 points per game, comes off their best offensive effort of the season, shooting an awesome 65% from the field during a 94-62 victory over Morgan State. Expect things to cool down as they square off against UAB on Monday night as we find Tech posting a 0-2 Over/Under record after making 54% or better of their shots this season, and has now gone "Under" in 9 STRAIGHT games after scoring 85 points or more! Toss in the fact that UAB is 0-7 (Over/Under) as road dogs between 6.5 and 12 points and we'll back the UNDER.
10* Play On UNDER
Re: Monday Service Plays
1 Unit on NY Knicks +5
New Jersey is a pathetic 2-9 SU and ATS in division games this season and has gone down to the Knicks in all 3 meetings this season. We'll take the Knicks again here getting a 5-point gift from oddsmakers. New Jersey is 0-7 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season, 6-14 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season, 4-12 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent this season, and 7-17 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. Expect the Knicks to bounce back tonight at home against a team it is very confident against.
Re: Monday Service Plays
LT Profits Sports Group
Nebraska is on a 5-0 ATS run, and they gave Kansas all they can handle the last time the played on the road. Mississippi has a losing ATS record at home. Take the Huskers.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers have looked good recently and the Big 12 has done well this post-season, so look for the Huskers to at the very least take the Mississippi Rebels down to the wire.
Nebraska has been a bettor’s dream as of late, going 8-1 against the spread in the last nine games including covering their last five in a row. The last time they played away from home, they gave Kansas all that they can handle before ultimately falling 64-54, still covering the 14-point spread. They then rebounded by trouncing NC Charlotte 67-48 in the first round of this NIT.
Mississippi started this season 13-0, but they have gone just 9-10 straight up since, missing their chance to be in the Big Dance. They did beat Cal Santa Barbara handily 83-68 in the first round, but Nebraska represents a big jump in class here, and besides, it is not as if the Rebels are blowing people away at home this year. In fact, they are just 6-7 ATS in their own building even including that firs round win, despite this being a rather down year for the SEC.
We will go with the hotter team from the better conference as underdogs here.
Pick: Nebraska +5½
Re: Monday Service Plays
California struggles greatly against teams that are proficient from the outside, but the Buckeyes strength isn't their ability to shoot the rock. Eight is too many to give the Bears.
California took advantage of an embarrassing night at the foul line from New Mexico and they now find themselves in Columbus, Ohio, set to take on the Buckeyes. Cal knocked down 22 FTs of their own and managed not to squander all of the eight point lead they took into the half.
Ohio State spent most of their previous game simply hoping to avoid injury. UNC Ashville proved to be slightly more competitive than a collection of cones as the Buckeyes hit over 56% from the field and cruised to an 18-point victory.
Ranking 10th in the nation in FG% defense, the men from Columbus beat teams with great defense. OSU only gives up 61 points a game and they rank in the top 25 against the three. The Buckeyes will press after scores and drop back into a zone when Cal gets into their half court offense. As good as this team plays defensively, they couldn’t find consistent enough offense to get themselves into the NCAA Tourney. The favorites tonight don’t rank in the top 200 in three point percentage or points per game. The Bears figure to sit back and focus more on rebounding than defending the perimeter.
California has the exact opposite team blueprint. This Pac-10 representative allows over 75 points per game while they light their opposition up for 77. Some teams give up a lot of points due to their style and some give them up because they’re terrible defensively; Cal falls under the latter category. The Bears don’t get many steals, they don’t defend the three, and they don’t stop teams well in transition. For them to get the win tonight, they’ll have to hope the Buckeyes are cold from the outside. California will have the most athletic big man, Davon Hardin, and the best overall talent on the court, Ryan Anderson; those two players may be enough to keep them in the game.
It’s never good when your best option defensively is hoping the other team misses, but that’s about all Cal can do when OSU has the rock. Fortunately for the Bears, they’re playing a team that doesn’t shoot well and isn’t particularly impressive on the glass. Cal is an athletic team and they should score enough to keep this game close till the end.
Play: California +8
Re: Monday Service Plays
Winning Points Online.
Phoenix at Detroit
PREFERRED UNDER 206
Pistons have clinched the playoffs and they want to hold down the #2 seed without over-using the starters, which they haven't done all season. They have allowed only 89.6 points per game against Western Conference teams this season. Phoenix's most recent game against a real basketball team (Houston doesn't count because they are not real, they are freaky and now tired) was 94-87 against San Antonio. Since then, they've been rolling up big numbers vs. Western dregs to help inflate tonight's line.
Re: Monday Service Plays
Play: 3* Mississippi -5.5
Comments: Nebraska will travel to Oxford and Tad Smith Coliseum to face an Ole Miss team that has posted a record of 17-2 at home this season. They average 83.9 points per contest and this is against teams who normally allow 69.1 points per game. On the defensive side of the court Ole Miss only allows 70.8 points per game to teams that average 72.9 points per game. Nebraska averages 61.4 points per game on the highway versus teams that allow 68.1 points per game; we see they struggle to score on the road with -6.7 points per game differential. Defensively they allow almost 68 points per contest on the season. As a road underdog of 6 or less points the Huskers are 1-9 ATS their last ten times to post. The road has been tough for the Huskers as they are 6-15 ATS on the road the last two years. If they are coming in off a win of 10 or more points and playing on the road they are 14-28 ATS and 22-39 ATS off a home win overall. If they were a favorite in their last game they have cashed only five out of the last twenty times to post in that situation. When Ole Miss is facing a quality opponent at home who has won 60 to 80% of their games on the season Ole Miss is 10-1 ATS their last 11. If the game is 15 or later in the season Ole Miss is perfect posting a 9-0 ATS record in that situation. One last tech note we have a system that tells us to Play Against CBB road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a team shooting >=45% on the season against an opponent after a game where they shot 57% or higher, allowing 43% or lower, 55-26 ATS since 2002. Take the host here and lay the short price as the Rebels of Ole Miss advance to the next round.
Re: Monday Service Plays
Game: Phoenix at Detroit
Pick: Detroit -2
The Suns have made the Shaq naysayers backtrack. After starting 3-6 with the Diesel, they have no reeled off seven in a row. They'll try to exact revenge for a 111-81 beatdown at the hands of the Pistons in Shaq's third game with his new club. They won't get it. Sure, this game will be closer. But, this game is in Detroit and if there's a team that can slow down the Suns, it's this team. Detroit will be bringing it as they look to avoid losing three straight. Phoenix has looked impressive but we need to temper the enthusiasm by the fact five of their eight wins have come against absolute cupcakes and/or teams that have no defense (Memphis, Golden State, Sacramento and Seattle). Detroit has held nine of their last eleven opponents under triple-digits. The two games they allowed 100+ they won handily. This is a good matchup for Detroit as theya re 23-9 ATS this season vs. teams that hoist up 18+ three pointers per game. They are also perfect this season (7-0) in games with a total posted at 200+. Finally, they are 7-0 ATS this season at home off a loss.
Re: Monday Service Plays
1. 200,000* Valparaiso
2. 50,000* Mississippi
1. Valparaiso- It took him most of the season to find the right combination, but it looks as though coach Drew finally found it, and its paying serious dividends, as the Crusaders have won 7 of their last 8 games SU. Most impressive was their last win, a 72-71 outright win at Washington as 10-point underdogs! Many of the same reasons Valpo won that game, are the same reasons they keep this one well within the number...
First and foremost, adding some size and athleticism to their starting five by starting 6'6 G/F Michael Rogers and 6'10 freshman F Bryan Bouchie together is genius. Along with 6'8 F Urule Igbavboa, the Crusaders know have a much stronger starting 5. They matched up particularly well with Washington, and tonight's match up may be even more favorable, as the Cougars have very little talent in their frontcourt.
If you've seen this Houston team play, its clear they rely heavily on star G Rob McKiver, who's 23 ppg paces the Cougars. Problem for Houston is two-fold: A. 6'6 G Shawn Huff (Valpo's leading scorer) is a solid defender, who has both the size and experience edges over McKiver. And B. While Houston may score more on average than Valpo, they're shooting only 39% over their last 5 games (McKiver shoots 39% on the season)! You've heard me say this before: You live by the jumpshot, you die by the jumpshot.
Finally, let's talk depth and balance, as the Crusaders have significant edges in both. Thanks to having Rogers and Bouchie start, now guards Loyd, Haanpaa, and McPherson can come off the bench, which is huge because all three average double-digit scoring! Not only is their depth an advantage, but the fact Valpo gets balanced scoring across the board, means its that much harder to gameplan for them.
Bottom line, Valpo is playing excellent basketball right now, and thanks to coach Drew's successful lineup changes, the Crusaders enjoy edges in size, depth, and overall scoring balance in this contest. Make no mistake, beating Houston at the Hofheinz Pavilion is no easy task, but being spotted this many points, look for the Crusaders to get the solid cover in this one.
Take Valparaiso plus the points over Houston as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Mississippi- This is a bad match up for the Cornhuskers anyway you look at it, as they've been vulnerable on the road, and are about to walk into one hell of a tough place to win, Tad Smith Coliseum, where the Rebels have been downright nasty this season. Granted, I know their 6-7 record ATS at home is nothing to write home about, but if you saw Ole Miss beat teams like Mississippi State, Alabama, and Arkansas there over the last month or so, its clear Nebraska is severely over matched in this one.
It all starts with the tremendous disparity on offense, as Nebraska is averaging a laughable 59 ppg on 41% shooting (30% from 3-point) away this season. When you compare that to the Rebels high-powered attack, scoring a blistering 84 ppg on 50% shooting (39% from 3-point) at Tad Smith Coliseum this season, there's no question the Cornhuskers will struggle to keep pace.
Of course, critics of this pick will argue the Cornhuskers defense should be able to keep them in this contest, but I disagree. Thanks to the fact they've covered 9 of their last 10 games, Vegas isn't sleeping on Nebraska anymore. I believe the number on this contest fully represents that, and I intend to capitalize because of it.
Finally, as far as match ups go, the Rebels Chris Warren is the key, as its been feast or famine with the talented point guard. Like most freshmen, he's a lot more comfortable at home, and the numbers prove it, averaging 18.2 ppg over his last 4 at the Tad Smith Coliseum. Also, the fact the Rebels have more than enough beef in their frontcourt to handle Huskers C Aleks Maric is a big plus. Between 6'8 290 lbs. senior Dwayne Curtis and 6'8 240 lbs sophomore Kenny Williams, Ole Miss matches up extremely well with the Nebraska's main offensive weapon.
Bottom line, underestimate Mississippi at home in this match up at your own risk, as they've got a tremendous edge on offense, and the personnel required to slow down an already anemic Nebraska attack. Rebels roll!
Take Mississippi comfortably over Nebraska in this NIT Second Round match up.
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