Thursday Service Plays

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Mighty Quinn
Baylor +3


Dave Malinsky 6 unit play
USC


Dave Price
Pitt -8.5


Jeff Alexander
Washington St. -9


Jimmy Boyd
Winthrop O 112.5


ARTHUR RALPH COMP
G. MASON


GAMBLERS DATA COMP
CHI +4.5

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

JEFFERSONSPORTS

MICHIGAN ST-7

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Josh Dean

200* Oral Roberts

100* Bulls

100* Kent St.

100* Belmont

Free Pick: UCLA/MSVS UNDER

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

DR BOB SPORTS:

5 round 1 Best Bets and all of them happen to be on Thursday.
Purdue (-2 1/2) 3-Stars at -2 1/2 or less, 2-Stars at -3.
USC (-2 1/2) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars up to -4.
Washington State (-8 1/2) 2-Stars at -9 or less, 3-Stars at -8 or less.
Michigan State (-6 1/2) 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars at -7 1/2.
Oral Roberts (+9 1/2) 3-Stars at +8 or more, 2-Stars down to +7.
Possible Best Bet on Xaver (2-Stars at -8 or less).
Below is the Best Bet analysis and I'm still working on writing up the opinions and working on my brackets, but hopefully I'll have that for you by 11:30 am or Noon Pacific.

3 Star Selection
***PURDUE (-2 ½) over Baylor
Thursday 11:50 AM Pacific - Rotation 714
Purdue has the youngest team in the NCAA Tournament field, but they also have one of the most talented. Coach Matt Painter brought in 6 talented newcomers this season and those first year players struggled early in the season and often didnt play hard against weaker non-conference teams. However, the Boilermakers upset Louisville in mid-December and started playing up to their enormous potential once conference play started. Purdue beat Wisconsin twice on their way to finishing second in the Big 10 while going 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games. The Boilermakers played their best against the better teams that they faced, going 6-1 ATS and 4-3 straight up in 7 games against fellow NCAA Tourney teams with 2 of their losses being by just 3 points at Clemson and at Michigan State. Baylor has also made an incredible resurgence under coach Scott Drew, but Baylor is just 3-8 straight up and 5-5-1 ATS against other NCAA tourney teams (excluding small conference teams). Baylor did play well away from home and they are 8-2-1 ATS as an underdog this season, but I favor Purdue by 3 ½ points after adjusting each teams for their ability to play better against other good teams. The reason for the play is a 45-11 ATS subset of a 133-58-4 ATS situation that applies to Purdue as long as they are not favored by more than 3 points. Ill take Purdue in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 points.

3 Star Selection
***Usc (-2 ½) over Kansas State
Thursday 04:10 PM Pacific - Rotation 722
This will be billed as a match-up between super freshman O.J. Mayo from USC and Michael Beasley from Kansas State, but the Trojans have a much better supporting cast and their stingy defense (39.1% FG allowed) will make it tough for anyone other than Beasley to score. Kansas State has struggled away from home this season, especially against good teams, as the Wildcats are just 5-8 straight up and 3-9- 1 ATS away from Manhattan, with 4 of those wins coming against mediocre teams Central Florida, Rider, Colorado, and Iowa State (the other was against Oklahoma). Kansas State is just 1-5 straight up and 1-5 ATS away from home against other NCAA tournament teams. USC, meanwhile, plays their best against good teams and the Trojans are underrated now that theyre healthy. The Trojans were without 2nd leading scorer and rebounder Devon Jefferson for 4 games and they were without pointguard Daniel Hackett for most of 5 games (he missed 4 and played just 2 minutes before getting injured in another). USCs rating in the 24 games in which Jefferson and Hackett both played is 2.6 points higher than their overall season rating and my ratings favor the Trojans by 5 ½ points in this game. In addition to the line value, the Trojans are also more likely to bounce back from their conference tournament loss (a spread covering 3 point loss to UCLA) than the Wildcats are. USC is 16-4 ATS after a loss the last two seasons while the Wildcats are just 3-6 ATS this season after a loss, including only 1-5 ATS when not laying 10 points or more (they have a tendency to beat up on bad teams). USC is also 43-23-1 ATS when facing a team with a winning record in 3 seasons under coach Tim Floyd. In addition to the line value and team trends, the Trojans also apply to a very strong 133-58-4 ATS first round situation that is 45-11 ATS at -3 points or less (or dog). Ill take USC in a solid 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 ½ or -4 points.
2 Star Selection

**Washington State (-8 ½) over Winthrop
Thursday 04:20 PM Pacific - Rotation 726
I picked Winthrop to upset Notre Dame in last years first round, but the Eagles are not nearly as good as last years team and Washington State is better on both ends of the court. My ratings favor Washington State by 9 ½ points after factoring in what is sure to be a very slow pace and the Cougars apply to a 90-40-3 ATS round 1 situation. Ill take Washington State in a 2-Star Best Bet at - 9 points or less and for 3-Stars at -8 or less.

3 Star Selection
***Michigan State (-6 ½) over Temple
Thursday 09:30 AM Pacific - Rotation 728
Ive learned a few things about Tom Izzos Michigan State teams over the years and this is a game that they are likely to cover. Izzos teams has covered the spread an impressive 55% of the time in his 13 seasons, but Michigan State often has trouble with teams that are close in talent or more talented (just 75-85-2 ATS when favored by less than 4 points or as a dog) and the Spartans also arent particularly good laying a big number since Izzos fiery nature doesnt come out as often against weaker teams (46-54 ATS as a favorite of more than 11 points). Izzos teams are also better when hes had ample time to prepare his team (114-78-3 ATS with 3 or more days off) and teams on a roll tend to stop rolling when coming up against the keen strategic mind of Izzo (59% ATS facing a team off a win and cover). This game is in the sweet spot for Michigann State, as Temple is good enough to respect but not good enough to overcome Michigan States fundamentally sound play (like teams with equal or better talent sometimes can) and Izzo has plenty of ammunition to get his team focused for the Owls given that Temple has won 7 straight games. Izzo also has enough time to implement a game plan to combat what the Owls have been doing well of late. Michigan State is 85-31-2 ATS under Izzo when favored from 4 to 11 points, including 62-17-2 ATS against a team coming off a win and 43-11-1 ATS with 3 or more days off to prepare. The Spartans also apply to a 92-33-3 ATS round 1 situation while Temple applies to a negative 8- 30 ATS tourney situation that is based on their recent success. My ratings favor Michigan State by 7 points, which is where the line opened and Ill take Michigan State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 2-Stars at -7 ½ points.

3 Star Selection
***Oral Roberts (+9 ½) over Pittsburgh
Thursday 12:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 729
Pittsburgh sure played well in the Big East Tournament, recording 3 consecutive upset wins over Louisville, Marquette and Georgetown. However, all that has done has given us line value on the other side and made it tough for Panthers coach Jamie Dixon to find ammunition to motivate his team. Facing Oral Roberts in the NCAA tournament is actually a letdown game for Pitt after last weeks emotional ride and the Panthers have never been good at continuing a short term hot streak under Dixon, going 1-6 ATS in his 5 seasons after winning and covering in 3 or more consecutive games (0-6 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or more). You may recall last season that I went against a similarly hot Oregon team as a 9 point favorite and #3 seed against Miami-Ohio after the Ducks had just won and covered 3 consecutive Pac-10 tournament games. Or, the year before when I went against Iowa after they won and covered 3 straight games to win the Big 10 tourney only to lose straight up as a #3 seed to Northwestern State. Teams that win and cover 3 consecutive conference tournament games are only 9-19 ATS when seeded #3 or worse and favored in their first round NCAA Tournament game and the Panthers apply to a very negative 4-28 ATS first round letdown situation as well as a 45-112-4 ATS situation that works in the regular season and the post-season. Oral Roberts is a pretty good team (I rate them the same as Villanova) that played pretty competitively in road games against other NCAA Tournament teams losing those by an average of 11.7 points to Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Texas (which would translate into 7.6 points on a neutral floor). My ratings favor Pitt by only 7 ½ points in this game and the slow pace that the Panthers play suits Oral Roberts well, as the Golden Eagles play outstanding half-court defense (39.8% FG allowed and limited Texas A&M, Arkansas, Texas, and Oklahoma State to just 40.8% shooting all away from home). I bet against Oral Roberts in the 1st round last year for a Best Bet winner on Washington State, but this season the Eagles are in a very good spot and Ill take Oral Roberts in a 3-Star Best Bet at +8 points or more and for 2-Stars at +7 ½ or +7 points.

Opinion/Possible Best Bet
Xavier (-8 ½) over Georgia
Thursday 09:20 AM Pacific - Rotation 712
Georgias run through the SEC Tournament was certainly incredible given their 4-12 conference record in conference play heading into the tourney and having to win 3 games in 2 days, but the Bulldogs were running on adrenaline those last couple of games and that has likely worn off by now. Teams that are upset winners of their conference tournaments usually dont fair well in their first NCAA Tournament games. Georgia applies to a negative 3-20-1 ATS first round situation that is based on their conference tournament success while Xavier applies to a very good 92-33-3 ATS first round situation. The Musketeers are also 17-8-1 ATS under coach Sean Miller when coming off a game in which they lost straight up and lost to the pointspread, so Xavier should bounce back with a good effort. My ratings favor Xavier by 7 ½ points in this game, but the situation is good enough to give up some line value. Ill lean with Xavier at -8 ½ or -9 points and Ill take Xavier in a 2-Star Best Bet at -8 points and for 3-Stars at -7 ½ or less.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Ted Sevransky

GAME: Temple @ Michigan State
PICK: Temple

REASON FOR PICK: NCAA favorites went 20-10-2 in the first round last year as both the wiseguys and the general public looked to back underdogs. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the favorites won the majority of first round games ATS again this year, although I wouldn’t expect that type of margin. So, when I recommend any first round underdog, I’ve got to be absolutely convinced that the dog is more than capable of hanging with the big boys.

Tom Izzo has a well deserved reputation as an outstanding tournament coach, but his Spartans have suffered from a lack of confidence and execution away from home all season. Michigan State’s weakness at closing out foes has been on full display in blown second half leads against Ohio State and Wisconsin within the last week, a team that consistently hasn’t been able to get it done away from home during crunch time. Quite simply, this team has major confidence and chemistry issues right now, as fully evidenced by their complete meltdown in the final seven minutes against Wisconsin in the Big 10 Tournament semi-finals, a tournament that the Spartans put enormous energy and focus into winning.

Temple has no such confidence issues after reeling off seven straight wins, including three in the Atlantic-10 tournament to earn their bid the hard way. Leading scorers Deonte Christmas and Mark Tyndale are very difficult to stop, and both have hit numerous big shots during crunch time all year, a big reason why the Owls have won ten games outright as an underdog this year. Temple has been vastly undervalued by the betting marketplace all year, finishing 22-11 ATS, a clear measure of how much this team has improved since their awful start to the season. Expect this game to go right down to the wire – Temple’s confidence and execution in the latter stages of the game gives them a solid shot to pull the outright upset. Take Temple +7.5

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Stephen Nover

GAME: Portland State @ Kansas
PICK: Portland State

REASON FOR PICK: The marketplace has acted decisively on this matchup backing Portland State. The line has come down, but not down enough to ignore Portland State.

The Vikings have enough talent and moxie to get the cover here. Portland State has come on to win 14 of its last 15 games. Kansas is a powerhouse, but the Vikings won't be intimidated having gone against some of the finest Pac-10 teams, including UCLA, Washington State and Washington.

There's no pressure on Portland State. A No. 16 seed has never won a first-round NCAA matchup. Kansas, though, has proven to be vulnerable during the opening round. The Jayhawks lost to a No. 14 seed three years ago in the first round and fell to a No. 13 seed in the opening round two

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Bryan Leonard Sports

GAME: Belmont @ Duke
PICK: Belmont

The Bruins of Belmont have plenty of experience in the big dance after losing in the first round each of the last two seasons. Both years they ended up losing to a team going to the Final Four. But this years Duke team has too many weaknesses to make it three years running. Belmont specializes in long range shooting which makes them a dangerous underdog. They have beaten Cincinnati and Alabama on the road this year. They bring a 13 game winning streak into action on Thursday and despite being knocked out in the first round each of the last two years they have the confidence that they can compete.

Duke isn't dominant defensively allowing 46.8% shooting from 2 point range. The Blue Devils have lost their last 3 games when facing a team who made this years Big Dance. Duke hasn't fared well in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite posting a 1-7 spread mark. In a down year for the ACC the Blue Devils are a good team, just not a great team. They will win this game but it will be more of a battle than most expect.
PLAY BELMONT

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

The PREZ

GAME: Baylor @ Purdue
PICK: Baylor

REASON FOR PICK: Purdue had won 11 in a row before losing three of its last six. Their Thursday opponent, Baylor, lost eight of its last 13, including an ugly Big 12 tourney loss to Colorado. However, even in the Bears loss to the Buffs, they showed spirit and tournament savvy coming back from a 15-point deficit to take the game into overtime. The Boilermakers don’t have the guards to matchup with Baylor, and their youth will work against them in today’s game. Four of the team’s top six contributors are freshmen.

Baylor’s deep and experienced backcourt will prove to be too tough for Purdue. Starter Curtis Jerrells is a dynamo on the court. The Bears bench is led by sharp-shooters LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter.

The only threat in the paint for Baylor is Kevin Rogers, who ranked third in the conference this season with 12 double-doubles. The strength of Bears squad is pressure defense and three-point shooting. The team made 267 shots from beyond the arc, six short of the team record set in 2001-2002. Today’s tip-off is special for a team that just four-to-five years ago was in dire straights, and this year’s invitation to the NCAA Tournament is their first in 20 seasons.

The Bears pressure defense allowed too many easy points this year, but against a young Purdue squad they figure to be more than effective.

Purdue’s E'Twaun Moore, didn’t receive the Freshman accolades of Kansas State's Michael Beasley or USC’s O.J. Mayo , but he led the team in scoring (12.7 points) and minutes played (30.1). The difference between Purdue’s youth, versus strong guard play of Baylor, is the best reason for an investment in this Thursday first-round contest, but the icing are the injuries to Chris Kramer and Keaton Grant, who are both suffering from a variety of ailments.

Today’s battle isn’t the classic matchup of #5 seed vs. #12 seed, but the #6 versus #11 figures to be lopsided by game’s end. Baylor is well coached and has plenty of motivation coming into today’s battle. The Bears were considered the last team in the tournament and Coach Scott Drew will use the slight as bulletin board material in his pre-game talk to the team.

Baylor is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog, and the the troupe is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Purdue is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite and enter today’s first-round contest 0-4 ATS in the squad's last 4 non-conference games.

Look for Baylor to pour it on early and often and rattle the young roster of Boilermakers, and show just how strong the Big 12 conference is, and how underachieving the Big 10 will be this March.

The Thursday afternoon tip-off calls for an action play on Baylor over Purdue.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

BobBalfe

Kansas State +3.5 over USC

These teams are mirror images of each other except USC is very young. Both teams have great freshman stars. Beasley is amazing and will carry this team to at least one win before he heads up to the NBA. USC should turn the ball over alot due to inexperience. This might just be the highest seed to win outright today.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

JeffAlexander

1 Unit on Washington State -9

Winthrop doesn’t have the team it had last season when it upset Notre Dame in the first round.  This is a Winthrop team which struggles to score and they’ll be facing the best defensive team in the country (in my opinion) in Washington State .  At 12-4, Washington State has been sensational on the road this season.  The Cougars are 10-6 ATS in those games.  On the other side of things, Winthrop is just a 9-8 road team this year.  Plays on Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points ( WASHINGTON ST ) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament are 22-4 ATS since 1997.  We’ll take the Cougars.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Winthrop/Washington State OVER 112.5

While these are two defensive teams, oddsmakers have come down way too low on the line to give us an easy opportunity with an OVER play here.  The Over is 6-1 in Cougars last 7 games following an ATS loss, 4-1 in Cougars last 5 neutral site games, and 5-2 in Cougars last 7 neutral site games as a favorite.  The Cougars have gone OVER the total in their last 3 games heading into the Tourney.  Washington State's offense showed the ability to score much better later in the season and that will put this one over a very small number.  Bet the OVER here ladies and gents.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Tom Scott

Baylor Bears at Purdue Boilermakers

The euphoria seen in the Baylor locker room when the Bears were announced as the final team in the NCAA tourney field masks the disappointing finish. Baylor started the season like a house afire with 16 wins in its first 18 games, the streak culminated by an emotionally draining five overtime win at neighborhood rival, Texas A&M. Since then, though, the Bears have flattened out considerably winning just five of their last 13 and losing badly to league doormat Colorado in the conference tournament. It was Baylor's defense that disappeared. Before that game against the Aggies, the Bears were allowing 67 points per game. Since that win over A&M, Baylor is coughing up 82 points per game. Purdue has been playing stellar defense all season, allowing only 61 points per game. There's the difference. Both teams can score but Purdue is the one who can get a stop now and then.Good luck, as always...Tom Scott.

Play on: Purdue

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Steve Merril

George Mason vs. Notre Dame    
Play: Notre Dame   

George Mason made a memorable run two years ago to the Final Four as a #11 seed, but this year’s squad is not as talented. George Mason earned an at-large bid in 2006, but that was not the case this year as the Patriots had to win the CAA tournament to earn the automatic qualifier. Their opponent in the finals, William & Mary, upset the #1 seed Va Commonwealth as a 12-point underdog in the semi-finals, so George Mason was able to avoid the best team in the conference (VCU). The Patriots got a much easier game versus a tired W&M squad playing their fourth game in four days. Notre Dame will be extremely focused for this game after being upset in the first round last year versus Winthrop. That was a young Notre Dame squad, with limited postseason experience, but this year’s team is a veteran unit. The Irish will also gain focus and motivation after losing 89-79 versus Marquette in the Big East tournament last week. Quality teams usually bounce back in the first round of the NCAA Tournament after a SU loss, and Notre Dame fits a solid 65% angle based on that premise tonight.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Matt Fargo

Arizona vs. West Virginia
Play: Arizona   

The Wildcats were hit with injuries all season long but now they are a healthy team and one that could be a very tough out. An underachieving team in the past, they are now the underdogs and that can make a world of difference. The Wildcats will make their 24th-straight NCAA tournament, the longest streak in the nation, but, as a No. 10, it's the lowest they've ever been seeded. I think that is the best thing that could have happened and if you look at the other No. 10 seeds, the Wildcats are the best of the bunch.

West Virginia made a small run in the Big East Tournament and that has gotten it some attention from the public. According to some sportsbook action, this is one of the biggest bet games thus far and close to 2/3 of those wagers are on the Mountaineers. They do possess a great player in Joe Alexander who has shown he can take a game over himself but top to bottom, they are at a huge disadvantage. West Virginia went just 3-8 against the nation’s top 50 this season.

Watching ESPN or any other national broadcast and you see debates about whether Arizona even belongs here. I can guarantee you this team does despite a mediocre 18-14 record including a losing mark in the Pac Ten. The schedule was brutal as it ranked the hardest in the country. The Wildcats went 4-1 against teams outside the top 25 but still within the top 50 and that is where the Mountaineers fall. Motivation is something big this time of year and Arizona has it.

Arizona has better athletes and when Jerryd Bayless and Nic Wise were healthy and combined with Chase Budinger, the Wildcats were a proficient scoring team. Wise and Bayless have been huge contributors and Arizona missed them when they weren’t playing, going 2-5 without Wise and 1-3 without Bayless. Wise could be a big factor and one that is hardly being talked about, as it's unclear whether the Mountaineers have anybody athletic enough to guard him.

West Virginia has had a knack of being able to force a lot of turnovers but Arizona only averages 12.1 tpg, which is going to be a big plus. The Mountaineers has a 1.40 assist/turnover ratio which is down from the past two years showing what sort of team it was in the past. Arizona has a ratio of 1.28 so it is not far behind at all. The Wildcats also are hitting 74.7 from the free throw line this season which is 21st in the nation and we all know how important that is. Arizona advances on Thursday. Play Arizona Wildcats 1 Unit

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Dave Cokin

Cornell vs. Stanford 5PM ET

Play: Cornell +14.5

Stanford figures to win their opening round game with Cornell, but the Big Red may be better than most observers think. They ran roughshod over the entire Ivy League, and I remember how well they played at Duke earlier this year. This is not an Ivy League pushover and Stanford would be wise not to overlook them. In the end, the Cardinal have too much inside strength and should win, but I don't see the game as a blowout. Cornell plus the points.


Great Lakes Sports

Winthrop vs Washington State
Play on: Washington State Cougars

The Cougars are 18-13 ATS in non-conference games the last three years, 7-3 ATS when playing with five or six days of rest the last three years.
The Cougars are also 35-30 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last three years, and are 6-4 ATS in non conference games this year. We look for the Washington State Cougars to grab the ATS Win & cover tonight.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Brian Hansen

Game: Oral Roberts at Pittsburgh
Prediction: Oral Roberts

Reason: Pittsburgh played great throughout their big run in the Big East Tournament but I look for Oral Roberts to give them all they can handle in this one. Oral Roberts has great guard play and they specialize in three point shooting. This should cause problems for a Pittsburgh team that struggled at times this season on the defensive end. Oral Roberts has played well previously against good competition and I look for them to keep this one close down to the wire as they earn the cover and possible outright upset against a Pittsburgh team that could get caught looking ahead to a second round game with Michigan State. Play on Oral Roberts!

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Big Al Mcmordie

Game: San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs

Reason: At 8:05 pm, our member selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Chicago. The key, here, is that the Spurs (the NBA's oldest team) have had the last two days off following their loss to the Celtics. And, as an aging team, the Spurs have responded very well the last few seasons with at least two days of rest. Coach Gregg Popovich hasn't pressed the Panic Button yet (even though the Spurs have dropped six of seven (and have failed to cover their last nine)), and is returning the team to its old starting lineup of Duncan, Parker, Bowen, Oberto and Finley, with Ginobili coming off the bench. Off nine straight ATS losses, I expect San Antonio to come out with a lot of fire in its belly tonight, and to get a relatively easy win. Lay the points.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Dave Price

NCAAB Oral Roberts vs. Pittsburgh   
Take Pittsburgh Panthers

1 Unit on Pitt -8.5 I like the Pitt Panthers to keep right on rolling in round one of the Big Dance, riding the momentum they created by winning the Big East title. Pitt comes in having won 5 straight games SU and 4 of its last 5 ATS. Oral Roberts has been relying on its defense this season after losing last season's top two scorers. Oral is going to have to be able to score against Pitt to keep this one close and I just don't see enough fire power on the roster. Pitt was a Sweet 16 team a season ago and is playing its best ball of the year right now. Bet Pitt as the Panthers advance to round two with ease.

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Thursday Service Plays

THE SPORTS REPORTER

Pepsi Center, Denver, CO
(5) NOTRE DAME vs. (12) GEORGE MASON -- George Mason won their
conference tournament with defense, allowing only 51 points per game. Mike Brey’s
Irish squad is offensively balanced and won’t be as easily subdued. Notre Dame will
look to push the pace of the game to get it in the 70’s. Look for Brey to focus on getting the rock to his rock ‘ big man Luke Harangody. The Patriots rely heavily on center Will Thomas for points, but if he’s battling the Big East player of the year on the defensive end, he may not be as effective scoring the ball. Look for a close ball game through the half, but with Notre Dame’s proficiency behind the arc and Harangody’s bulk in the frontcourt, George Mason will be forced to play catch-up ‘ and that’s not their game.NOTRE DAME, 73-64.


(4) WASHINGON ST. vs. (13) WINTHROP -- Both teams play floor-slapping
defense and want to limit their opponent’s possessions. Problem for Winthrop is
they aren’t as efficient offensively as Washington State and they shoot only 60% from the foul line. The Cougars tend to take advantage of most scoring opportunities using a balanced approach that spreads out the points. This Tony Bennett may not be able to sing, but he can coach. Oh yeah ‘ he also has the better athletes here. If the Eagles are not at the top of their offensive game, they will die a slow death at the hands of their Pac-10 foe. WASHINGTON ST., 59-48.


(6) MARQUETTE vs. (11) KENTUCKY -- Two tradition-rich programs who
roll into California with as many questions as answers. After an 11-1 start (with a narrow home loss to Duke the lone blemish), Marquette has endured sustained difficulties against quality Big East foes on the road, though they handled Notre Dame well enough in the tournament. Kentucky endured growing pains as Billy Gillispie fiddled with combinations early ‘ then settled down to rack up a regular-season 12-4 SEC mark before falling to Georgia. The loss of F Patrick Patterson makes eager embrace of the ‘Cats difficult, with Joe Crawford and turnover-prone Ramel Bradley left to pick up the scoring. Dominic James has settled into his best shooting groove as Marquette’s most reliable scorer’ and his ball control is excellent. Tough call at the number, but suspect ‘Cats vulnerable to greater downside potential than are the favorites from Wisconsin. MARQUETTE,
68-62.


(3) STANFORD vs. (14) CORNELL -- This is where we came in! Cardinal
opened the season by drilling out-manned Harvard by 55 and proceed to prevail over
underachieving Yale by eleven, eleven days later. Big Red’s the cream of the Ivys, rolling through the Ancient Eight undefeated, on merit, laying waste to two decades of domination by Princeton and Penn. But the Ivy ATS record in the Dance has deteriorated markedly in recent years, and even the casual viewer can discern the most-recent, spreading talent gap vis a vis genuine national power teams ‘ of which the Cardinal’s certainly one. Cornell is the best free-throw shooting team in the country, but that skill provides scant comfort against tall Trees Brook and Robin Lopez, Lawrence Hill and Fred Washington, who should lay waste to the likes of 6’6’ Ryan Wittman on the boards. Stan doesn’t have a history of sadistic beatings, but spread fails to reflect prevailing matchup realities. STANFORD, 81, CORNELL 57.


1) KANSAS vs. (16) PORTLAND STATE -- Kansas is bigger, stronger
and faster ‘ and, oh yeah ‘ better. The Jayhawks will enjoy the pace, as Portland St.
likes to push the ball. They have only two guys who play decent minutes that are taller than 6’8’ and their best player is 5’6’ point guard Dominguez. Not exactly Big 12 caliber.Bill Self’s frontcourt of Jackson, Arthur, and Kahn will have a field day in the
paint as they move on to Saturday. KANSAS, 79-55.


( UNLV vs. (9) KENT STATE -- On paper ‘ these teams look very similar.
We’ll see how that translates to the court. Both teams max out height-wise at the 6’8
level and rely on athleticism to play hard-nosed defense. Kent St. guard Mincy may
be the best on-ball defender in the country and he’ll get a crack at the Rebel’s Wink
Adams, who lit up BYU in the Mountain West tournament final. He has the ability to
disrupt a team’s offensive flow. If UNLV can keep Kent St. off of the offensive glass
(no easy chore) ‘ they have a great shot. If Kent St. can keep the turnovers to a minimum ‘ the pendulum swings to the MAC champ. The Golden Flashes have been playing really well of late, so we’ll give them the slight edge. KENT STATE, 64-62.


(6) USC vs. (11) KANSAS STATE -- Our hopes fulfilled, we get a legitimate
shot at the ego-swollen Wildcats, at a competitive price. Even the lesser lights of the
Big XII eventually figured out that to slow the almighty Michael Beasley and his frosh
running mate, Bill Walker, you overplayed ‘em, and dared the other Little Manhattans
to shoot. Voila! Dominant core of Tim Floyd’s team are all frosh/sophs as well, but
O. J. Mayo has matured in a big hurry, and with a healthy Daniel Hackett, Trojans play beyond their years. And defensively, Taj Gibson is instrumental in foes shooting below 39% from the field. This is a team game, and K-State’s infant backcourt is likely to implode, under the pressure. Ballgame! USC, 74-63.


(3) WISCONSIN vs. (14) CAL-STATE FULLERTON -- Bo Ryan’s
Badgers have long been renowned for not beating themselves, and don’t anticipate
an implosion in the opener. Fullerton shot the lights out in winning the Big West tourney in what devolved into an easy path to the crown. They lost to familiar conference foes on the road by small margins (3, to UCSB; 6, to St. Mary’s) but got drilled by 26 by the ‘Cats of Tucson. They’ll try to run, and ex-Washington Stater Josh Akognon is a stone-cold shooter, but Badgers are solid, and Brian Butch has evolved into something special. So long as Trevon Hughes stays healthy, this opponent’s controllable,though wouldn’t risk my life on Wisky surviving the weekend. WISCONSIN, 75-65


(1) UCLA vs. (16) MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ST. -- Those Bruin injuries
should be concerning to the Westwood faithful, but it won’t matter here. The Delta
Devils shoot right around 40% from the field and give up closer to 50%. Not a good
ratio ‘ but hey ‘ they made the tournament so what do they care. Ben Howland will
rest Kevin Love, and his other starters for that matter, as much as possible. His team
is laying 30+, so if the southerners get to 40 they may cover. That said ‘ we won’t
touch it. UCLA, 70-39.


( BYU vs. (9) TEXAS A&M -- The Cougars are a strong club that nobody
is talking about. Perfect. The three-headed monster of Cummard/Plaisted/Tavernari
account for 45 points per contest and fuel the Cougars. The Aggies like to play tough
defense but it won’t be easy to defend BYU. The Cougars scorers have size and skill,
and can hit from inside and out. A&M must keep the game close due to their offensive issues. They have only two kids averaging double digits and the leading scorer is Carter at 12 per game. The Cougars are keeping opponents below the 40% shooting mark on the season, so scoring could be as dry as the Sahara for A&M. Close game early, with BYU pulling away in the final 10. BYU, 69-57.


(6) PURDUE vs. (11) BAYLOR -- A pair of feel-good stories out of power
conferences, leaning to the dog whose program has risen from the ultimate depths,
emerging from the deeper conference. This year’s Bears have responded gamely to
bad losses, and a one-and-done performance against Colorado in the Big XII tournament qualifies as a bad loss. So we anticipate guards Curtis Jerrells and Lace Darius Dunn will rebound with fire in their eyes. Boilers are a resourceful team which has largely-camouflaged backcourt deficiencies all season, but that’s a challenging situation for a Madness favorite. Bears should win turnover battle, and the game. BAYLOR,
71-70.


(3) XAVIER vs. (14) GEORGIA -- Bulldogs’ miracle run through the SEC
tournament structure has salvaged Dennis Felton’s job. Rendered shorthanded with
injuries and personal considerations through much of the season, UGA surprised by
turning on their tourney jets, winding up with three wins in two days (including that
improbable, storm-induced Saturday doubleheader). It’s a tribute to Felton that Billy Humphrey, Terrance Woodbury and the rest of the Dawgs responded so strongly to the pressure. But now, they’re facing a seasoned Dance regular who essentially dominated the lion’s share of their A-10 schedule and was good enough to beat Kent State, UMass, Charlotte and Rhode Island on the road. The health of G Drew Lavender is a concern, which prevents a step-out, but fully expect X to advance behind Josh Duncan and friends. XAVIER, 69-61.


7) WEST VIRGINIA vs. (10) ARIZONA -- Lame-duck Cats coach Kevin
O’Neil likes to just roll the ball out and let his kids play. They look great in pick-up
games, but rarely put together a solid 40 minutes straight. Point guard Nic Wise is
back to form after missing most of the season with an injury ‘ that helps. Question is
not whether Wise, Bayless, Budinger and crew can score ‘ but it’s whether they can
play defense and rebound for a full game. If they can’t, budding Mountaineer star Joe
Alexander (27 ppg in last 6) will eat their breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Alexander’s
team does not defend the 3 well, so if the B-Boys from ‘Zona can get hot, they can
pull the mild upset. Talent is there. Execution is not. WEST VIRGINIA, 74-69.


(2) DUKE vs. (15) BELMONT -- Coach K would love to see a similar match
up for the next three weeks ‘ small team, weak on the boards, all offense, no
defense. Sorry coach ‘ you can play Belmont only once. Duke will get their fair share
of open 3’s in this one. They’ve hit 10-plus 3-pointers 15 times this season and they’ll
likely push the total to 16. Duke implemented a new substitution pattern in the ACC
tourney to rest players, so don’t look for the Dukie starters to log big minutes. This
will be a track meet without the photo finish. DUKE, 90-68.


(7) WEST VIRGINIA vs. (10) ARIZONA -- Lame-duck Cats coach Kevin
O’Neil likes to just roll the ball out and let his kids play. They look great in pick-up
games, but rarely put together a solid 40 minutes straight. Point guard Nic Wise is
back to form after missing most of the season with an injury ‘ that helps. Question is
not whether Wise, Bayless, Budinger and crew can score ‘ but it’s whether they can
play defense and rebound for a full game. If they can’t, budding Mountaineer star Joe
Alexander (27 ppg in last 6) will eat their breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Alexander’s
team does not defend the 3 well, so if the B-Boys from ‘Zona can get hot, they can
pull the mild upset. Talent is there. Execution is not. WEST VIRGINIA, 74-69.


(2) DUKE vs. (15) BELMONT -- Coach K would love to see a similar match
up for the next three weeks ‘ small team, weak on the boards, all offense, no
defense. Sorry coach ‘ you can play Belmont only once. Duke will get their fair share
of open 3’s in this one. They’ve hit 10-plus 3-pointers 15 times this season and they’ll
likely push the total to 16. Duke implemented a new substitution pattern in the ACC
tourney to rest players, so don’t look for the Dukie starters to log big minutes. This
will be a track meet without the photo finish. DUKE, 90-68.

NBA

BEST BET
BOSTON over *DALLAS by 7
The Celtics play the fourth game of their five-game road trip against the Dallas Mavericks, a team desperately trying to find their identity before the playoffs commence. The results since their massive trade for Jason Kidd have been mixed, with doses of terrifying, as the Mavericks have managed to beat every non-playoff team they’ve faced while succumbing to those squads they may match up against during the more important second season. Boston has not had such issues, but spent this week playing Texas’ other two teams ‘ now they’ll try to knock off the Mavericks in Dallas. Dirk Nowitzki and company have improved their play with Jason Kidd, but have yet to prove they can hang with the real big boys ‘ indeed, they had failed to do so before Kidd’s arrival. Look at this game as an opportunity to take the Celtics with a relatively small spread. BOSTON 97-90


RECOMMENDED
*UTAH over L.A. LAKERS by 8
The Lakers received a scare when Pau Gasol injured his ankle last Friday ‘ luckily, Gasol is only expected to miss a week to ten days, and should be ready for the playoffs. With the tenuous status of the injured Andrew Bynum, not having Gasol would torpedo the hopes of a team who has so dramatically improved their play. While the long term isn’t so bleak, Gasol is widely expected to miss this entire week at the least, and the Lakers will be facing a rested Utah squad that has the bulk and size to bully around the Lakers in the paint. With Ronny Turiaf andLamar Odom expected to receive the majority of the frontcourt minutes, the Lakers should prove susceptible to the power basketball stylings that Jerry Sloan prefers. Being on national television should elicit a strong effort from both squads, but this might be one of those games where Kobe jacks up 30+ shots to poor results while superior team play takes down the purple and gold. UTAH 115-107

mvbski
useravatar
Offline
43759 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
44604
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
278325
Average Posts Per Hour:
5.6
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3505
Newest User:
mathewdavis
Members Online:
1
Guests Online:
2272

Online: 
Blade

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com