Tuesday Service Plays

Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Bobby Maxwell

Taking our shot in the CBI Tournament today as we grab the points with Alabama State as they take on Arizona State.

Everybody thinks Arizona State was robbed and deserved an invitation to the Big Dance. The Sun Devils have everybody doing their crying for them, saying how they deserved to be dancing and rival Arizona should be in the NIT.

But all this crying is going to do is help Arizona State produce a lackluster performance tonight. The Sun Devils will likely win the game but not cover this huge number. Arizona State lost five of their last eight games.

Alabama State won six of their last seven games but lost to Jackson State in the SWAC semifinal 77-72 in OT. The can certainly play defense, giving up 65.4 points a game and 38.6 percent shooting in their last five. And while the Hornets might be disappointed they're not in the big dance, they've got to be excited just to still be playing.

Look for a lackluster first half and Arizona State to get the job done in the second half. But they're just not going to have enough to cover this number. Grab the points and play Alabama State in this NIT late game.

4* ALABAMA STATE


The Mavericks have got some momentum going with five straight wins while the Lakers have lost three of four and failed to cover in four straight.

Dallas went to Miami and crushed the Heat 98-73 as a 15 1/2-point favorite on Sunday and have gotten healthy on the dregs of the Eastern Conference, winning those five straight and covering the number each time.

The Mavs are on ATS runs of 9-0 on a days rest, 6-0 following a SU win and 5-0 as a favorite. The lakers meanwhile are struggling with ATS marks of 0-6 against teams with a winning record, 0-5-1 against the Southwest Division and 1-4 on a day of rest.

The home team has won each of the two games these two have played this season, including the 112-105 win by the Mavs back on Jan. 25 when they pushed as seven-point favorites. The home team is 7-1 SU (4-3-1 ATS) in this series.

Los Angeles is struggling to cope with the injury to Pau Gasol as they just don't seem to have enough offense to get the job done. The Mavs are at home and getting fat against undermanned squads. Let's play the Mavericks to use that momentum to get the 10-point win in this one.

3* DALLAS

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Chuck Franklin

The Bluejays will win by double-digits.
Rhode Island has to travel a long way on short notice and they are an awful road team as it is. As a matter of fact, the Rams are only 1-8 ATS the last nine games played overall. On the road they are on a 1-4 ATS run. They are 1-8 ATS the last nine games played after a loss.This will be an absolute blowout!

3* CREIGHTON


Last night I went against the Chicago Bulls playing on the road at New Orleans. That was another 1500* in the bank as the Hornets won and easily covered, finishing the game on a 24-4 run. I will cash the ticket tonight taking the Bulls as they come back home and beat the Nets by double-digits.

The Nets have won only two of the last eight games played and they are only 11-21 on the road this season, losing seven straight away from home. The Bulls have lost four of the last five, but they will take care of business in this Eastern Conference clash. Chicago has double-revenge for two losses to the Nets already this season. The Bulls have won three of the last four when hosting New Jersey.

The Nets are 3-14-1 ATS their last 18 road games and the Bulls are 5-2 ATS their last seven home games. Chicago has covered the spread in 11 of the last 14 games after a loss and New Jersey is 1-5 ATS the last six played after a win. This will be an absolute blowout!

3* CHICAGO

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Chris Jordan

I am going to take a shot with the Mid American Conference-entry Zips here, as they come in with more wins, less losses and a solid shot at winning this one outright.

Akron (23-10 SU and 16-12 ATS) won 10 of 17 on the highway this season, while covering nine of 15 with a suitcase in hand.

Akron played some decent non-conference competition, knocking off Temple and Wyoming early on, while challenging Dayton on the road just before conference play began. Akron has generally been a team that can play defense when it?s put to the test, and this is certainly a final exam.

The Seminoles may be 13-4 SU at home, but they?ve covered only five of 14 in Tallahassee. Look for Akron to push the ball in this one, force the tempo and keep the Noles guessing on defense.

4* AKRON


Look for the Mavericks to make it six straight on the hardwood and at the window, snapping a five-game losing streak to potential playoff teams when they host the Lakers tonight.

I realize Dallas winning streak has come against Eastern Conference teams with losing records, including Sunday?s 98-73 rout of Miami, and the Mavs are 0-5 (2-3 ATS) against Western Conference playoff contenders since acquiring all-star guard Jason Kidd, but this is the perfect opportunity to regain some confidence with roughly three weeks left in the season.

Los Angeles comes into this one off a 104-92 thumping in Houston, marking the Lakers third loss in four games ? and fourth straight versus the books not to mention their second consecutive during a four-game road trip against Western Conference teams in playoff contention.

These two have split two games this season with the home team winning each outing. The host is on runs of 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS run in this series, while the straight-up winner is 7-3 ATS in the last 10. And if you ask me, the Mavericks are poised for the win here. Lay the number with Dallas.

2* MAVERICKS

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

JIM FEIST

So when are the Rockets finally going to lose a game? It could be here against the team with the best record in the league. However, there's an old wagering rule ride the hot team. There are plenty of reasons to back Houston here, as well. This is the 4th game in 5 nights for the Celtics, and a tough trip thru the Texas Triangle, playing at San Antonio Monday. Houston has won 22 in a row, 18-3-1 ATS. You want to go against that ?

Play the Rockets!

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

DAVE COKIN

Did Arizona State get the big snub from the NCAA selection committee? I'm not sure, as there's a good argument on either side of the equation. What I do know is that the Sun Devils have a chance to convince everyone they belonged with a big showing in the NIT. Let's see if they've got the right mindset tonight. If they do, they can name the score against a seriously outgunned Alabama State squad. I'm banking on Herb Sendek having his troops well prepped and ready to deliver, so I'll go with ASU minus the big number

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

John Fina

Selection: Phoenix Suns -4 

Today the Phoenix Suns will take on the Portland Trail Blazers. We will lay the points with the Phoenix Suns! The Phoenix Suns should be able to control this game with their superior offense. The Phoenix Suns are scoring an average of 110 points per game, while the Portland Trail Blazers are scoring an average of only 95.7 points per game. This means the Phoenix Suns offense is scoring an average of 14.3 points per game more then the Portland Trail Blazers offense. In addition, the Portland Trail Blazers are a very bad road team. In fact, the Portland Trail Blazers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games. The Phoenix Suns have already proven they can beat the Portland Trail Blazers. This is shown by the Phoenix Suns being 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings against the Portland Trail Blazers. Lay the points!

Take the Phoenix Suns -4

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

JEFF BENTON

Warriors-Kings game to soar OVER the posted price

I know that the totals in Warriors games have gotten pretty insane lately, which is reflected in the fact that Golden State has actually stayed under the total in three of its last four games (even though those four contests have ended with combined totals of 199, 223, 238 and 217). But these are two extremely fast-paced, up-tempo teams that play absolutely no defense. Just look at the numbers. Golden State is averaging 111 points per game on 46.3 percent shooting, while the Kings pour in 101.6 ppg on 46 percent shooting. And the Warriors yield 107.8 ppg, slightly more than Sacramento?s average of 104 ppg allowed. Both teams allow the opposition to make about 46.5 percent of their field goals.

Now strip things down to the last five games Golden State is averaging 116 per game (48 percent) and surrendering 106 ppg (48.4 percent), compared with Sacramento's 103.6 ppg for (47.5 percent) and 107.2 ppg allowed (49 percent). Finally, there are these impossible-to-ignore trends: For the Warriors, the over is 10-1 in the last 11 on the road, 9-3 in the last 12 within the division and 19-7-1 in the last 27 overall, while Sacramento has topped the total in 13 of its last 17 home games and seven of its last 10 overall. Throw in the near pick-em odds on the sidemeaning overtime is a distinct possibility, and I see this one flying over what is admittedly an inflated total.

(Based on a 1* to 10* rating system)

4* Warriors-Kings OVER the total

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

MATT RIVERS

For Tuesday take Nevada at home.

Rob McKiver may be the best player on the court and the Cougars overall are probably as good as the Wolfpack but on the road Hakeem and Clyde's alma mater is in some trouble.

Nevada has not had the season they wanted to as they have gotten somewhat used to being in the Big Dance but these guys at home are very good as evidence by the seven straight wins there and I would be surprised to see that streak end here.

The 'Pack are a capable team that has held its own against solid competition. They won at New Mexico State, pounded San Diego and beat Santa Clara. Houston is on that level and should compete here but the road is a difficult difficult place and should be too much for the Cougs here.

Houston has dropped three of four SU and all four ATS. Why should anything change here on hostile turf!

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

TONY WESTON

There are some who think this play-in game between Coppin State and Mount St. Mary's doesn't really matter as either will end up losing by at least 50 to North Carolina in the real first round of The Tournament.

But it matters because it's an easy winner for us as we absolutely love Mount St. Mary?s to destroy the 20-loss Coppin State Eagles.

Even though Coppin State started 4-19 SU to begin the season, the Eagles finished strong going 11-1 SU, including a perfect 4-0 mark in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference tournament to earn a spot in the play-in game.

However, the Eagles take on a Mountaineers team that has been consistent throughout the season. Mount St. Mary's is 5-0 SU its last five games and is 8-1 SU in its last nine games

Over that 5-game stretch the Mountaineers have outscored their opponents by 13.2 points per game, 76.8-63.6.

Coppin State, on the other hand, is scoring about as much as its opponents in its last five, 64.6-64.2.This one will be ugly, but take Mount St. Mary?s.

2* MOUNT ST. MARY'S (1* to 5* Scale)

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Karl Garrett

Going to lay the points tonight at Creighton, as I have a feeling the Rhode Island Rams are going to be in over their heads at this tough venue.

The Blue Jays went a solid 15-2 straight up on their own hardwood, and went 8-5 against the spread in their lined home games.

Rhode Island went just 6-9-1 against the spread away from Kingston, and you talk about a free fall...the Rams come into this game off losses in 7 of their last 9 straight up, covering just once in that span against the spread.

Just too many negatives coming into this game on URI's side, so the G-Man is going to lay the lumber in this first round NIT meeting tonight.

3* CREIGHTON

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Moneylockoftheday

Digger's pick
Florida State

Junior's pick
Minnesota/Maryland Under

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

WINNING POINTS

**PREFERRED
*Houston over Boston by 6
HOUSTON 97-91.

**PREFERRED
Golden State over *Sacramento by 10
GOLDEN STATE 120-110.

Phoenix over *Portland by 5
PHOENIX 109-104.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Larry Ness Las Vegas Insider

Game: Houston at Nevada
Prediction: Nevada

Reason: How about the lack of respect for C-USA? Of Course Memphis is a No. 1 seed (2nd to only North Carolina, overall) but the Tigers were the only one of 12 C-USA schools to make the "Big Dance." UAB was the only school the NIT wanted. If not for this new CBI tournament, that would have been it for C-USA. However, the CBI took Houston, Tulsa and UTEP. The Cougars have to be just sick. Houston opened the year 11-1 but finished the season with back-to-back losses to UTEP in the season's final regular season game 87-81 at El Paso and then in the C-USA quarterfinals, 80-77. Add it all up and the team's 22-9 record only gets them a plane ticket to Reno, Nevada. Why would the Cougars even want to make the trip? McKiver (23.1-4.1) is an excellent guard but he misses his partner from LY (Lafayette), who averaged 14.3 PPG. Lanny Smith(once a double digit scorer in back-to-back seasons for Houston), has never fully recovered from his injuries and averaged only 5.5 PPG on the season. Last year, the 6-6 duo of Dowell and Thorpe (10.9-6.1) was a nice pair but only Dowell (11.2-6.7) returned and the 6-8 Toney (6.8-6.1) has been an average partner for Dowell this year, at best. As for Nevada, four starters were lost off of LY's 29-win team, which made a FOURTH consecutive NCAA appearance. Trent Johnson led Nevada to the NCAA's Sweet 16 back in 2004 (then left for Stanford) but current head coach Mark Fox has been there since, as last year's team concluded a four-year run in which the Wolf Pack won 106 games. All in all, this has to be considered a good year, as Nevada went 12-4 in the WAC (a four-way tie for first-place) and after an eight-point loss to New Mex St (in Las Cruces!) in the WAC tourney, Nevada will take a 21-11 overall mark into this game. The 6-5 Kemp was the lone returning starter from LYand led the team with averages of 19.8-5.4-3.3. Fields (12.3) and A. Johnson (11.3-4.1) joined him on the perimeter with the 7-0 McGee (14.2-7.10 and D. Johnson (6.7-4.6) starting in the frontcourt. Nevada lost its second home game of the season (to Cal) but then went 12-1 SU the rest of the way in the Lawlor Events Center. The lone loss came to Boise St (won WAC tourney) on Jan 19 and Nevada ended the year with six consecutive home wins, by an average margin of victory of 19.7 PPG (only Utah St stayed within double digits). On the bench, I'll take Nevada's Mark Fox over Houston's Tom Penders, any day! Las Vegas Insider on Nevada.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

FERRINGO

2.5-Unit Play.Take UNC-Asheville (+15) over Ohio State
The best system to follow when it comes to NIT betting is to fade the teams that got snubbed by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. Ohio State is exactly such a team. You’ll get a blowout or two along the way, but in general double-digit favorites come to play. Asheville only lost at North Carolina by 12, at Tennessee by 13, and at Virginia Tech by 14. If they can play with those clubs they should be able to hang around with the Buckeyes. They have plenty of size and they have five players averaging in double figures, so they can get scoring from all over the court.

2-Unit Play. Take Richmond (+13) over Virginia
If you want to lay 13 points to a team that runs the Princeton offense, go right ahead. I’ll take the other side. The Spiders were one of the surprise teams in the Atlantic 10 this season. And although they tailed off in Money Time against more experienced teams, they are spunky enough to want to roll into UVA and beat their in-state rivals. It has to be a lot harder for the Cavs to get up for this one and that Richmond has everything to gain here. Richmond won at Virginia Tech this season and has beaten quality teams like Dayton, Temple, and Charlotte. And although Sean Singletary should score 40 in this one, I think the game is played in the 60’s and the Spiders hang around.

2.5-Unit Play. Take Oklahoma State (+5.5) over Southern Illinois
The Cowboys have been on a smoking 7-1-1 ATS run and seem to have adjusted well to playing as a perimeter team. OSU laid an egg in the first round of the NIT last year, but I think that they will have much more focus this time around because they’re matched up against a highly reputable program. Southern Illinois will be without starting point guard Bryan Mullins. And on a team that struggled this year precisely because their backcourt stinks, this isn’t a positive development. These teams score and defend at a similar rate, so catching points in what should be a close game is a big benefit. I think the Cowboys can win this one so I’m taking the points.

3-Unit Play. Take Stephen F. Austin (+10) over Massachusetts
The Lumberjacks have proven that they can play with the big boys. They won at Oklahoma and at San Diego this year, and since Thanksgiving their four losses have come by an average of just four points. They can shoot, they generally control the tempo, and against a team that doesn’t exactly lock down on defense they should be able to put some points on the board. Massachusetts is another club that is grudgingly playing in the NIT. I think they can clear SFA tonight, but I don’t see them blowing the doors off. The Minutemen are 3-7-1 ATS at home and 0-7 ATS at home against a team with a road winning percentage over .600.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

1.5-Unit Play Take Robert Morris +14 over Syracuse

Because are the Orange really that interested in the NIT? Last year 'Cuse hosted an opening round NIT game and failed to cover a big number over South Alabama, and this year's young team is much more inconsistent. Had this been a non-conference game at the beginning of the season with a team wanting to improve, then it might be different. But Robert Morris will be the more focus team wanting the win. They'll get the cover in the Carrier Dome.

2-Unit Play. Take Robert Morris/Syracuse Under 155

The game above will stay under this number. They would each need basically 80 a piece, and I don't think this one will be played at that high a tempo. Th SU zone will slow down Robert Morris to a halfcourt game, and neither shoot the three ball well enough to light it up. This one stays in the low 70s at best.

2-Unit Play. Take Akron +8 over Florida State

Again, if this were a game at the beginning of the season, it would be different. But Florida State has again let down and not made the NCAA Tourney. How motivated are they now that they're stuck in the NIT again. Akron slipped up big time in the MAC title game, and I think they'll want to erase that bad loss and keep their season going. Zips are the play here.

2-Unit Play.Take Maryland +3.5 over Minnesota

For some reason I see the Terps coming out and playing a really good game. That hasn't been the case, but a new opportunity like this could be a nice way to close the season. Head coach Williams will have Maryland ready, and I think they take this game outright over the Gophers.

1.5-Unit Play.Take Rhode Island +7 over Creighton

This Rams team is tricky to figure out. They certainly have the talent, but for some reason it hasn't risen to the top of late. But the points here are certainly nice, because Rhode Island can win this game outright. I'll take a chance with the points and see what come about with them.

2-Unit Play. Take Rhode Island/Creighton Under 150.5

We'll see the Blue Jays want to keep this game in the 50s or 60s, and if it gets into a high scoring game, well, that favors Rhode Island, and thus our number above will likely hit. I think we see this one in the 60s, but in a closer game. Play the under.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Black Magic Sports

1 Unit on Golden State Warriors -2

Golden State has made easy work of the Sacramento Kings as of late.  The Warriors are 3-0 in their last 3 meetings with the Kings, winning their last 2 contests at Sacramento.  The Warriors beat the Kings by 7 and 17 points respectively in their last two road meetings with Sacramento.  They have been a much better road team this season and they have a lot more at stake than the Kings considering they are one of the last teams in the playoffs if the season were to end today in the Western Conference.  The Warriors are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games overall, scoring 116 points per game in the process.  Golden State is 29-12 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less since 1996.  Sacramento is 2-13 ATS in home games after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons.  Cash in with Golden State as the favorite.

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DOC'S

4 Unit Play. Take Alabama State +19 over Arizona State
Being an ASU alum, I tend to follow the Sun Devils more closely then most would and know that this squad is really bummed about being in the NIT, since they feel they did enough to be in the big dance. That being said, it is hard to imagine they can be huge favorites against any team in the country, since they do not play the style of offense that allows them to reach triple digits very often. The Devils really struggled down the stretch and the Hornets are a solid team that went 15-3 in conference play. This will be a victory for the No. 1 seeded Sun Devils, but they will not be able to cover this inflated number giving us a top play cash with the Hornets.


3 Unit Play.Take Richmond +12 ½ over Virginia
In order to allow even crapper teams into the postseason a new tournament has been created called the CBI and it features a pair of Commonwealth teams on Tuesday night. Richmond comes from the A-10 Conference, a very underrated conference that wound up sending three teams into the big dance. That was only one less then what the ACC sent. Virginia has the best player on the floor in Sean Singletary, but his supporting cast is not good enough to allow for a blowout on Tuesday.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

EZ WINNERS

NCAA

2 STAR: (587) STEPHEN F AUSTIN (+9.5) over Massachusetts
(Risking $220 to win $200)

2 STAR: (585) COPPIN STATE (+7) over Mount St. Marys
(Risking $220 to win $200)

1 STAR: (593) AKRON (+7.5) over Florida State
(Risking $110 to win $100)

1 STAR: (596) SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (-5.5) over Oklahoma State
(Risking $110 to win $100)

1 STAR: (598) MINNESOTA (-3.5) over Maryland
(Risking $110 to win $100)

NBA

1 STAR: (583) PHOENIX (-3.5) over Portland
(Risking $110 to win $100)

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Larry Ness 

Phoenix vs. Portland
Today's Pick: PORTLAND BLAZERS

Shaq had 14 points and 16 boards vs San Antonio but in the Suns' last three wins, in which they've averaged 127.3 PPG, Shaq's taken a total of just 12 shots, while averaging 9.3 PPG. Maybe the Suns are better with Shaq NOT contributing? Anyway, Phoenix won at Portland not that long ago (March 4), 97-92 That's really nothing new, as the Suns have won seven straight and 11 of their last 12 games against the Blazers. However, the Blazers are a very solid 23-9 SU at home this year, going 8-3 ATS as home dogs. The team is also 8-3 ATS over its last 11 overall games. Roy (19.3-4.9-5.8) is having another superb season (was R-O-Y last year) plus Aldridge (17.5-7.3) has made great strides in his second season, coming into this game having averaged 23.7 PPG over his last six outings. The difference between Portland now and then (when the Blazers went 17-1 SU and 16-2 ATS from Dec 3-Jan 9) is, that the role players are not stepping up as well on a regular basis. All that said, let's remember that Phoenix is just 2-2 SU on the road with Shaq, getting beat at New Orleans (by 17) and Denver (by 13), while winning at Memphis (big deal!) and here in Portland (by just five). In that March 4 loss, the Blazers were only 2-of-15 from behind the three-point line. A 4-for-15 performance would have meant a one-point win. I'm taking the home dog. Take the Blazers. 

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Rocky Atkinson 

Stephen F. Austin vs. Massachusetts
Today's Pick: STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

Massachusetts is 2-9 ATS since 1997 in first round tournament games. Stephen F. Austin comes in with a 26-5 SU record this year. Stephen F. Austin is allowing only 55.6 points per game overall this year and 58.3 points per game on the road this season. Minutemen are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Minutemen are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Minutemen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Minutemen are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. We'll recommend a small play on Stephen F. Austin tonight! 

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