Betting News and Notes - Mar.15
Re: Betting News and Notes - Mar.15
NCAAB – Cheat Sheet
College Cheat Sheet: Conference Tourney Championships
The road to San Antonio will be paved with the eventual winners of this weekend’s Conference Tournaments. As a reward, these champions will have earned the majority of the top seeds to be announced on Selection Sunday. And, as a result, it’s our last chance to pad our bankroll before the Big Dance begins.
Let’s take a Cheat Sheet peek at what we can expect in these title games over the weekend. All results are since 1991 in Conference Championship games only, unless mentioned otherwise. For openers, here’s a breakdown of some of the best and worst ATS title game results within each the six major conferences.
ACC – while it’s been all Duke (11 appearances) and North Carolina (10 appearances) in the title game, these two have not faced one another in a game for all the marbles since 2001. In head-to-head title games, the Blue Devils hold a 3-2 SU and ATS edge over the Tar Heels, having been favored all five times. In fact, throughout all games in the ACC tourney, Coach K’s crew is 0-4 SU and ATS in winnable roles (as a dog or favorite of less than three points). Key Stat: teams in this title game, off an ATS win of eight or more points, are 1-8 SU and 3-5-1 ATS.
Big East – the straight-up winner in the title games is 15-2 ATS, however 10 of those wins have been by the underdog. Final favorites of three or more points are just 3-7 ATS. Should Georgetown, the loop’s top seed, arrive to the championship game (they are 13-0 SU as a No.1 seed in this tourney), our key stat could likely come into play: teams who allow less than 65 points are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in title games.
Big Ten – entering its 11th year of play, the Big Ten/11 has seen four teams earn the title two times each (Iowa, Illinois, Michigan State and Ohio State). The Buckeyes and the Fighting Illini lead the pack with five appearances each in the title game. No. 1 and No.2 seeds have been the big money makers, going 8-3 SU and ATS, with all other lowers seeds 2-7 SU and ATS. Key Stat: teams playing with revenge in the championship game are 1-7 ATS.
Big 12 – similar to the Big 10, this conference enters just its 12th year of competition (it was formerly the Big 8 and the SWC in years prior). Kansas leads the way with five titles (5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS), followed by three for Oklahoma. No.1 seed Texas is still a Big 12 virgin, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS ATS in games for the big cheese. Key Stat: teams that score 70 or more points in the title game are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS.
PAC 10 – arguably the strongest league in the land this year, the Beach Boys have been holding postseason parking lot conference concerts since 2002. In that span only Oregon has managed to arrive to the championship game more than once (two times), while USC has made the most appearances (four). Top seed UCLA has been here once, in 2006 when they defeated California to earn the crown. Interestingly, teams with a win percentage of less than .700 are 0-4 SU and ATS while teams with a win percentage of more than .700 are 5-1 SU and ATS. One other note in passing: teams that manage to score 74 or more points in the title game are 5-0 SU and ATS. Those who fail to score 74 are 1-6 SU and ATS.
SEC – the three-time defending champs (Florida) are gone, but a lot of history abounds in championship games inside this loop. If you don’t mind laying points then this is your conference. That’s confirmed by the fact that favorites of six or more points are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in championship affairs. No.1 seed Tennessee has made one appearance, a 19-point loss back in 1991 against Alabama. Leading the cavalry is Kentucky with no less than 11 performances in the title game, more than double its nearest competitor (Florida, five). It doesn’t hurt knowing that teams ring the register when they put up 75 or more points in the big game. When they do they are 12-1 SU and ATS (5-16 SU and 4-15-2 ATS when they don’t).
In closing, some parting thoughts to keep in mind while seeking a dance partner this weekend: teams on home courts in championship games are 33-9 SU and 24-17-1 ATS since 1991. No.1 seeds, when playing off an ATS win of seven or more points in the semi-final round, are super tough at 39-20-2 ATS. And finally, No.2 seeds are just 6-18-2 ATS in championship games off an ATS win of 12 or more points. Enjoy the rehearsal.
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