Monday's Service Plays

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ATS Consultants Newsletter Plays

Best Bet
Houston over Portland 94-83
The Blazers have played well in the first half, but they are not yet in the elite of the Western Conference. Houston beat them last time on the road and Tracy McGrady is finally starting to get healthy. Portland also doesn't have an answer for Yao Ming up front and the Houston defense is too tough for the young Blazers.

Preferred Plays
Philadelphia covers over Dallas 99-101
Texas over Kansas 78-71

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COMPS

REDZONE
San Francisco


Templer's Sports Picks
Phoenix/Dallas OV5


Las Vegas Sports Advisors
Dallas -3.5


Bob Harvey Sports
Under 209.5


Kyle Baugues
Portland -5


MIKE WYNN
Portland -5


Game-time Sports
Dallas Mavericks -3.5


Red Zone Sports
SAN FRAN DONS & DALLAS MAVS

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Bobby Maxwell

San Antonio at TORONTO +1

It's an NBA FREE play coming tonight from Toronto as we go with the Raptors hosting San Antonio. The Raptors are coming back to Toronto after a 105-82 beatdown of Minnesota as six-point road favorites, and granted they have a much stiffer test coming than the T'Wolves, they got a little rest witih the blowout and will score a big win tonight against the Spurs. The Spurs are playing the eighth game of a nine-game East Coast road trip and played Sunday in Boston, losing 98-90 as two-point favorites. The Spurs expended a lot of energy in the game, as it was a back-and-forth contest that saw Boston pull it out in the fourth quarter. Now the old-legged Spurs have to play 24 hours later and they are just 2-8 ATS on the second night of back-to-back games. They are just 12-12 SU on the road this season and 9-15 ATS. You konw these guys are staggering to the finish line with five days off coming starting Thursday. Meanwhile the Raptors are looking good lately, going 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games and 7-1 ATS against the Southwest Division. These two teams met in December when Toronto went to San Antonio and scored an 83-73 victory as seven-point underdogs. Today they're still small 'dogs and while we'll take the points just to play it safe, look for the Raptors to win this one outright. I'll take young legs over old ones every time on the second night of back-to-backs.

4* TORONTO


Drew Gordon

L.A. Clippers at MILAWAUKEE -4'

While there's no doubt both of these teams are terrible, situational trends, the Clippers recent road play, and certain match ups edges, have me loving the Bucks at home in this spot. First, this is the final game of a long and tough road trip for the Clippers. It will be their 7th road game in 11 nights, and Basketball 101 tells us they'll not only be tired, but lack focus, as the Clips just want to get back home in what is already a relatively meaningless season. Second, did you see their last road game? They didn't even show up for 76ers Saturday, losing 101-80, down by 19 at halftime. You could argue that they'll try harder tonight, but I doubt it, Sam Cassell already has one foot out the door, and if he's their "veteran floor leader"... What does that say? Finally, the injury to Yi Jianlian has opened the door for Charlie Villanueva, who always had the talent, but is just now starting to deliver in some real minutes. He gives the Bucks a much tougher option than Jianlian, and his 21-point, 13-rebound, 2-block effort against the Knicks in 35 minutes action Saturday is hard to ignore. Also, obviously, the return of Michael Redd to the lineup is huge, especially coupled with the emergence of Villanueva. Also, on a side note, Kaman looked tired at Philly Saturday (2 of 10 for just 4 points), not a good sign against solid Andrew Bogut in this one. Bottom line, the Bucks and Redd were not happy about losing his first game back against the Knicks Saturday. They thought with their star back, it would be a cake walk, but I believe they learned their lesson. Look for a focused Bucks team to come out firing against a Clippers squad just aching to get back to the comforts of home. Bucks roll! Take Milwaukee comfortably over the L.A. Clippers in this NBA match up.

3* MILWAUKEE

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NORTHCOAST COMPS

3* ILL-CHI

4* LAL/CHAR UNDER


Ben Burns Comp.
Portland Trail Blazers


Matty O'Shea
Lakers/Bobcats OVER

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Sports Gambling Hotline

Kansas at TEXAS +4'

We like the points tonight in this Big 12 battle, as Texas comes into this home game with a little mojo working after their come-from-behind win and cover in overtime at Iowa State on Saturday.

The Longhorns have won 3 in a row, and find themselves in a rare triple-revenge spot tonight as they host a Kansas team that is just 4-4 against the spread on the road this year, failing their last 3 on the conference road.

A win tonight would give Texas 20 wins on the season, and the Longhorns have been able to give the Jayhawks problems despite the 3-game slide, as Texas is on a 6-2 spread run in this series, and they are a decent 3-4 straight up the last 7 times they have faced KU.

This is a prime spot for the Longhorns to step up big, as this will be the first time this year Texas has been installed as a home dog. For the year, Texas has covered 2 of 3 when catching points, and we will take them plus the impost tonight.
Play on the 'Horns!

1* TEXAS

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THE SPOTS REPORTER

BEST BET
*ORLANDO over CLEVELAND by 12
The Magic have practically had the Southeast division handed to them on a platter, ending January on a strong note in a road back-to-back and having the benefit of an evenly spaced homestand to end the first half of the season. In fact, the Cavaliers basically come gift wrapped tonight in a coat of supreme fatigue after playing three games in the past four days and having to fly to Orlando last night after a difficult game in Cleveland against the fast-paced Nuggets. Normally, you could count on Zydrunas Ilgauskas to provide a nice counter-measure to Orlando’s Dwight Howard, but how much will the aging Big Z have left in the tank after such a tough stretch of games? Missing Anderson Varajeo to injury won’t help the Cleveland frontcourt and the deep Magic squad should be able to exploit a tired Cavaliers team.

ORLANDO 99-87

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FERRINGO

1.5-Unit Play. Take #523 Kansas (-4.5) over Texas
Yeah, I know, I'm a big fat square. But I just don't think Texas is all that good. Kansas beat them two of three meetings last year and KU is better this year, while the Longhorns are sans Durant. Texas struggles with teams that have size on the interior - that's why they got worked over by Wisconsin - and the Jayhawks can attack from the perimeter and interior. There will be no letdown and no look ahead out of Kansas tonight. This is their game and I think they will give one of their best performances.

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS

2-Unit Play. #519 Take Valparaiso +2 over Illinois Chicago
Struggling a bit, but this Valpo team is the same group that had Butler all but beat last week. All six losses in Horizen league play have come by an average of just over four points each setback. That says they have the talent to play with anyone in the conference, but just have not been getting the breaks or finishing games. That tonight changes, as the Crusaders take the season series with the Flames. Valparaiso held serve at home vs. UIC three weeks back, and the team's recent, close setbacks rally them to get in the win column and get back to .500 in conference play. The small underdog takes this one outright.

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Ted Servansky

Nevada

To say there’s some bad blood between these two teams is something of an understatement. Utah State and Nevada are arch-rivals in the WAC. They’ve played in the WAC Conference championship game against one another in each of the last two years with Nevada winning in overtime the first time and Utah State winning a hotly contested game by two last year. The Wolfpack felt robbed by the refs in that game, just one week after they had lost by the exact same two point margin in Logan, a pair of games that they still remember and talk about.

Nevada failed in their chance at revenge in Logan ten days ago, losing by 14. But now, with a short turnaround time and triple revenge against a team they know they can beat (79-62 in the Aggies last trip to Reno), we can expect a concerted effort from the home team; as head coach Mark Fox has his team peaking at the right time after a slow start to the season. The Wolfpack blew out Hawaii by 20 on Saturday, beat San Jose by 38 earlier in the week, beat Fresno by a dozen, and won big at Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State – the same New Mexico State team that beat Utah State by 30 on their home floor two weeks ago. Wolfpack get their revenge here!

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Karl Garrett

Big East tonight, and I will bite at the rather large impost the Wildcats are getting against the Hoyas.

Villanova was able to snap an ugly 5-game losing streak with the win - but no cover - against Seton Hall, while Georgetown couldn't buy a basket in their second half collapse at Louisville over the weekend.

Sure the Hoyas are back at home, but against 'Nova that has not been an advantage, as the 'Cats are a perfect 6-0 straight up the last 5 meetings at the Verizon Center!
The underdog in the series is on an 8-3 spread run, and you also need to consider that the Hoyas have struggled with the big number all year long at home, as they are just 3-6 against the spread on their home hardwood this season.This is just too many points, even with Villanova playing as poorly as they have been of late.

Live dog tonight in this Big East battle.

3* VILLANOVA (on a 1* to 5* basis)

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Drew Gordon

1. 300,000* Utah State
2. 50,000* Magic
3. 50,000* San Diego

1. Utah State- I know every bettors initial instinct screams: "revenge" in this spot for Nevada, which is absolutely true, having lost to Utah State 77-63 February 2nd in Logan. While I agree in principle, it's the margin I have a big issue with, as the Aggies have proven to be the cream of the WAC crop and will not lose this game by as much as Vegas wants you to believe.

First of all, the Aggies offense is far too efficient, led by Jaycee Carroll and Gary Wilkinson, to allow an average Nevada defense to extend the margin. The Aggies average 69 ppg on an outstanding 49% shooting on the road, thanks in large part to the excellent efficiency of both Carroll and Wilkinson, who dominated their match ups with the Wolfpack 9 days ago, and will dominate them once again tonight.

Second, while its true Utah State is just 2-6 ATS on the road, those very same numbers are the reason we're getting some value here in this game. In their last road game, they won outright 77-72 as 1'-point dogs at Fresno State. An impressive road win no doubt, but obviously not enough to convince odds makers the Aggies have turned the corner on the road. Look guys, I'm not saying Utah State wins outright here, but this game will be close.

Finally, not to harp on it, but this is conference game... Utah State is not going to take this game lightly. I believe their complicated screen-heavy offense can score against any WAC defense, especially one as relatively average as Nevada's. Wolfpack's blowout wins over San Jose State (bounce back win after Utah State loss) and Hawaii (bad road team) have helped artificially balloon the number on this contest, as the Nevada is being given too much credit in this spot.

Bottom line, expect a razor close competitive contest in this WAC showdown, with the winner coming late. Either way, Utah State grabs the cash against a Nevada team that had little success stopping their offense the first time around this season, and won't have enough tonight to cover either.

Take Utah State plus the points over Nevada as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Magic- Got to love the Magic in this spot, as they host a fatigued and short-handed Cavaliers squad tonight at home. Several strong trends in Orlando's favor, but none bigger than the fact the Cavs are 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games with no rest!

Lebron James may be able to handle the fatigue, but his supporting cast of veterans simply cannot, and playing their 4th game in 5 nights right after playing the high-octane Nuggets won't help!

What's worse is the Cavs come into this game with some serious question marks, including the status of Gibson (Hamstring), Gooden (groin), and Ilgauskas (back). They're already without the high-energy Varejao, who would have filled in nicely if either Gooden or Ilgauskas can't go, but not with his left ankle sprain.

Also, considering the fatigue and the injuries, how can you possibly expect much from this Cavaliers offense tonight, averaging just 92 ppg on the road this season. They were terrible against the Nuggets last night at home, as James (with a little help from Hughes) was the only Cavalier to play with any energy. While Orlando's defense hasn't been great of late, they're good enough to stop the Cavs in their current state.
Finally, the key to the Magic's offense is the inside/out game with Dwight Howard. So, with Ilgauskas hurting, Gooden hurting, and Varejao out, who guards Howard? Look down the Cavs roster, and you'll quickly find, either one of those guys is going to have to play at less than 100%, or the the Cavs will be in big trouble... Either option is a bad one.

Bottom line, the Magic rout a tired and short-handed Cavs team in Orlando tonight. They're home loss to Lakers 3 days ago, only serves to motivate this Magic team even more tonight. Magic roll in this one!

Take the Magic at home BIG over the Cavaliers in this NBA match up.

3. San Diego- While recent match ups between these two teams have been close, I firmly believe the Dons are outmatched in a conference game that the Torreros must win if they are to keep pace with the St. Mary's and Gonzaga's of the world.

Over their last 3 home games, the Dons have lost to Holy Cross (non-lined contest) in OT 67-63, to St. Mary's by 22 points as 10-point dogs, and to Santa Clara by 18 points as 1-point dogs... Are you starting to see a pattern? The Dons could care less about their meaningless season, and it shows with pathetic efforts at home of late. While on the other hand, San Diego obviously needs to keep the conference wins coming, making for a huge gap in motivation tonight.

Several fundamental problems with the Dons, including the fact after their 4th leading scorer, the production drops off the face of the Earth (from Cavic's 9 ppg to Taylor's 3.9 ppg). Second, their point guard is a turnover machine, as Quezada's 94 turnovers on the season are ridiculous. And finally, while their scoring is decent at home (66 ppg on 43% shooting), they also allow 72 ppg on a mind-boggling 51% shooting there this season!

Finally, the last time these two teams played, a 46-41 San Diego home win, point guard Brandon Johnson had one of his worst games of the season. He's the catalyst for this Torreros offense, which is why they scored only 46 points in that game. Rest-assured, even on the road, Johnson will do much better this time around, as the Torreros notch another conference win, all while grabbing the cash in the process tonight!

Take San Diego comfortably over San Francisco in this WCC match up.

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Dave Malinsky comp 4* play

GAME: Los Angeles Lakers @ Charlotte Bobcats

SPORT: National Basketball Assoc.

PICK: under

Offered at: 209

REASON FOR PICK: 4* L.A. LAKERS/CHARLOTTE Under

Los Angeles has played 3-1 to the Under with Pau Gasol so far, as the marketplace continues to put the cart before the horse in terms of how this team is going to ultimately develop. Unfortunately the only time that we stepped in with an Under in that span was the one game that topped the Total, when the Lakers and Magic had that bizarre 77-point first quarter on Friday night before settling into a much more normal flow. Now we have a tired team playing its eight road game in 12 nights, and the legs are not going to be there for the kind of flow that is being called for.

Phil Jackson would have loved an easy time at Miami yesterday, after Kobe Bryant had to go 46 minutes, Lamar Odom 41 and Gasol 37 at Orlando on Friday. He did not get it, with Bryant going 42, Odom 43 and Gasol 34 vs. the Heat in a game that they never could break open. That adds to the kind of fatigue one would already expect when nearing the end of such a long road trip, and there is also another serious factor at hand – because of the finger injury that Bryant is fighting through, there has still not been a single practice with all hands on deck since Gasol joined the team. As such the chemistry is far from being settled, particularly at the offensive end of the court.

Sam Vincent is not going to do anything to push the pace here. The Bobcats are 10-5 to the Under as home underdogs this season (you might see a 9-6 elsewhere, but there was one result that took a swing because of overtime), which indicates his preferred way to go in these settings, and without leading scorer Gerald Wallace they lack the ability to score quickly anyway. Even with Jason Richardson having a huge game yesterday (27 points, 4-7 from 3-point range) they could manage only 87 points at Detroit, and the fact that Richardson had to go 39 minutes does not help in a back-to-back situation, especially since he has had to go at least 39 in each of the last three games. We do not expect to see this pace get anywhere near the current market projections.

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Steve Merril

Kansas vs. Texas (NCAAB)
Pick: Texas

Kansas is a very good team, and quite possibly the best team in the nation, but one of their strengths will be cancelled out in this game tonight. The Jayhawks defense is solid, especially their perimeter defense as they excel in forcing their opponents to turn the ball over, but that part of their game has been lacking since their 9-point loss at Kansas State. On the season, Kansas averages 10 steals per game, but since the K-St game, they’ve only forced 18 turnovers. That’s a span of 4 games, and it’s of no coincidence that the Jayhawks have only covered 1 of those 4 games (by a single point).

Kansas will be hard pressed to force Texas into mistakes as the Longhorns are #1 in the country in not turning the ball over (only 9½ per game). “We are going to have to guard better on the perimeter because our perimeter defense hasn’t been very good,” Kansas head coach Bill Self said. “Our technique has gotten pretty flawed and careless. We are getting beat way too much on the bounce because of lunging and reaching and we are not forcing turnovers. It’s a bad combination when you don’t force any turnovers and you still get beat. We can do both. We can pressure and not get beat, but that certainly hasn’t been the case of late.”

Texas plays a three-guard offense with the best point guard in the country, D.J. Augustin, running the show which will present a huge match-up problem for Kansas tonight. Texas plays on a very strong home court where they’ve gone an awesome 43-3 SU over the last three years, while never being a home dog during that span. The Longhorns have already beaten Tennessee and UCLA as underdogs this year, and Texas was a perfect 2-0 ATS versus Kansas last year.
Play TEXAS (+).


Valparaiso vs. Illinois Chicago
Pick: Illinois Chicago

Illinois-Chicago has an extremely strong home court where they stand 10-1 SU (7-1 ATS), outshooting their opponents 50.7% to 33.0% from the field, with an average win by +13.7 points per game.

Illinois-Chicago enters this game on a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS run, including an impressive outright dog win at Loyola on Saturday. The Flames now fit a 106-65 ATS momentum situation, while Valparaiso qualifies in a negative 88-145 ATS situation based on their three straight losses. Valparaiso might still be a bit flat after their overtime defeat at Wisc-Green Bay and the Crusaders are in terrible current form with a 0-4-2 ATS record in their past six games.

My power ratings favor Illinois-Chicago by 3 points tonight, plus the Flames have revenge from a 60-56 road loss last month. Illinois-Chicago held a 40-33 lead at halftime and still lost by just four points, despite shooting just 31% from the field, including only 28% from three-point range and just 63.6% from the free throw line.
Play ILLINOIS-CHICAGO (-).


Pepperdine vs. Portland U
Pick: Pepperdine

In a battle of two bad teams, the value lies with the underdog, especially since my power ratings favor Portland by just 3 points tonight. Pepperdine is also a solid 18-8 ATS as a road underdog the past two years, while Portland is 0-6 ATS at home this season.

Pepperdine was embarrassed on Saturday night in a 59-101 loss at Gonzaga, but they should bounce back tonight as they fit a 90-55 ATS situation which plays on losing road underdogs that are coming off a 20+ point SU road loss.

Portland is a weak 2-6 SU in conference games and has lost by an average of -8.9 points per game and is being outshot 40.5% to 47.4% from the field, which will make it difficult for the Pilots to cover as a favorite tonight.
Play PEPPERDINE (+).


Loyola Marymount vs. Gonzaga
Pick: Loyola Marymount

It will be very difficult for Gonzaga to be focused for this game as they already beat Loyola by 23 points last month. This same situation occurred last year when Gonzaga won the first meeting by 35 points and then lost the rematch outright by 6 points.
Gonzaga is coming off an easy 101-59 win on Saturday and they now fit a negative 28-59 ATS situation which plays against big home favorites playing with just one day’s rest. Gonzaga was in a similar situation last month when they won by just 8 points as a 19½ point home favorite versus San Francisco.

Loyola is 2-0 ATS in their past two games and they have only lost once in their past eight games by more than 24 points. This line seems a bit inflated as my power ratings favor Gonzaga by only 30 points, and Loyola fits a 71-38 ATS contrary indicator which plays on big road underdogs that are coming off a SU road loss.
Play LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT (+).

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Wolkosky Milan

10* CHARLOTTE +8½
10* DALLAS -3½
10* CLE/ORL UNDER 196½
10* LAC/MIL UNDER 193½

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Zen Gambler

NBA Monster Lock 4000*

Los Angeles Lakers @ Charlotte Bobcats over 208.5

NBA Monster Lock 1000*

Toronto Raptors -1.0

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Kyle Baugues

100 Units Utah State +7

100 Units Illinois Chicago -1

100 Units Wisc. Green Bay +3.5

100 Units Portland -5

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Scott Delaney

10* Wisconsin GB
10* Illinois Chicago
10* Houston Rockets

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Cash & Profit Experts

CBB
Ill-Chicago -1.5 Pod

NBA
La Lakers/Charlotte Under 209.5

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Bob. Balfe

Bobcats +8.5

Wisconsin GB +4

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Jim Kruger/ Vegas Sports Authority

Ill-Chi -1.5

San Diego -3.5


Stan Lisowski

3* ILL-CHI


Joe Wiz

Pepperdine
Ill Chicago
San Fran

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