Sunday Service Plays

Sunday Service Plays

Mighty  Quinn

0-3 in foots this week before friday

BB Philly + 3

record 4 - 10 - 1 (BB)

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Gator Report (Cajun-Sports)


Gator's NFL "Tech" Game of the Week

NFL Technical Game of the Week Selection (8-5 +2.50)

Game: Oakland Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Technical Set: Play Over NFL team against the total with a good passing team (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.) against a poor passing defense (6.7-7.3 PY/Att.), after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, 51-20 Over since 1983. OAKLAND is 38-12 OVER when they allow 6 or more total yards per play since 1992, 25-11 OVER when they allow 5 or more rushing yards per attempt since 1992. JACKSONVILLE is 6-0 OVER off 2 or more consecutive overs this season, 7-0 OVER after having won 3 out of their last 4 games this season, 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in the second half of the season this season, 10-1 OVER when playing with 6 or less days rest this season, 11-3 OVER after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons, 16-6 OVER after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Over the past three seasons when teams are coming off a game with the Colts they are 17-2 Over in their next game. The last five seasons have seen teams that are installed as home favorites and are off six or more Overs are 10-2 Over in their next game. The Jags are 7-0 Over their last seven times to post.
Selection: OAKLAND / JACKSONVILLE OVER 38.5


Gator's Super System Selections

Game: Kansas City vs. Detroit
System: Play AGAINST a home favorite with a total over 37 points off a non-shutout su/ats loss as an underdog of 4+ points, rushing for 50 yards or less in its last game, 1-25 ATS since 1994.
Selection: KANSAS CITY +5


Gator's 70% Situational Report

NFL (Sunday)

Game: Cleveland vs. Cincinnati
Play On NFL home teams off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG) after 8 or more games, 30-7 ATS since 1983.
SELECTION: CINCINNATI +2.5
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HILTON CONTEST TOP 5:

#1- CLEVELAND
#2- HOUSTON
#3- BUFFALO
#4- JACKSONVILLE
#5- PHILADELPHIA

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Teddy Covers

Packers -7.5


David Jones

Texans +7.5


Killer Sports

5* GOY.KC +4

5* Over of the week GB over

5-star(teaser) Tennessee +1, Denver +19, New Orleans OVER 37

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Jim Rich

Giants under 32 1/2
Pack over 39 1/2
Titans over 37
Brownies over 43 1/2
Texans under 45
Bucs under 36 1/2
Jags over 38 1/2
Miami under 45
Saints under 47
Vikes over 40 1/2

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EROCKMONEY

(1.) Minnesota (-6.5) v. Washington

The Vikings struggled Monday night against rivals Chicago and it's unlikely they play that poorly in back to back home games. The Vikings are excellent against the runand the Skins offense is nothing if they can't move the ball on the ground. The Vikings play much better and charge into the playoffs.

Pick: Vikings by 10

(2.) Pittsburgh (-7.5) at St. Louis (winner)

The Steelers are in the midst of a late season slide and need this game really bad. St. Louis is just what the doctor ordered. The Steelers are trying to aviod a first round mathcuo with J-ville and possible second round matchup with New England. Cleveland and Indiapolis would be much easier road to the AFC title. Believe it or not, the Browns can still pass Pittsburgh for the division.

Pick: Steelers by 10

(3.) Chicago (+9) v. Green Bay

This is far to great a rivalry for a nine point spread in Chicago. This series is the most heated rivalry in the NFL and these teams and fans really don't like one another. This is the Bears Super Bowl and they play their best against the hated Packers. The Bears would love nothing more than to screw the Pack out of home field advantage.

Pick: Bears by 6

(Blowout of the Week) Tennessee (-8) v. NY Jets

The Titans are still alive in the playoffs hunt and are due for a great performance at home. The Titans will stuff the run and Young and company will pound the ball all game versus the weak Jets defense. The Jets played very well last week and won't be up two weeks in a row.

Pick: Titans by 14

(Upset Special) Cincinnati (+3) v. Cleveland

See Chicago - Green Bay. The Bengals have been horrid this season and Lewis should get canned after the season. This inter-state rivalry is very important and the players and fans know it. Add in the fact the Bengals could help knock the Browns out of the playoffs and this one should be interesting. Cleveland has struggled on the road and I expect the Bengals to pull the upset.

Pick: Bengals by 13

(Under 47) Philadelphia at New Orleans

The Eagles have a top five defense this season and could easily have 9 or 10 wins this season. The Saints have a high powered offense, but I expect the Birds to defense to play a solid game and keep the points down.

(Under 43.5) Dallas at Carolina

Carolina will play well at home on national television and look to keep the Cowboys offense off the field. Romo is banged up and the Cowboys offense hasn't been clicking lately. I expect a lower scoring affair in this one.

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LeRoy's Contest

Nick Bogdanovich

342 Boise St. -10.5
336 Seahawks -10
316 Bengals +3
328 Jaguars -13
322 Lions -5
326 Bills +3
Best Bet:
314 BYU -6.5

Jorge Gonzalez

318 Bears +8.5
316 Bengals +3
326 Bills +3
314 BYU -6.5
330 Saints -3
319 Texans +7
Best Bet:
324 Patriots -21.5

Doc

314 BYU -6.5
316 Bengals +3
331 Redskins +6.5
328 Jaguars -13
329 Eagles +3
340 49ers +6
Best Bet:
322 Lions OV43

Paul Sonner

311 Nevada +2.5
341 E. Car +10.5
319 Texans +7
322 Lions -5
326 Bills +3
331 Redskins UN41
Best Bet:
324 Patriots OV45

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Josh Jacobs

With the NFL season heading into the quarter pole, this can only mean the final stage of the Challenge. It’s been great investing my time into selecting my five picks for you to view and while last week was somewhat of a disappointment (1-4), its time to pick up the pieces and finish 2007 off with a bang.

Once again, a Thursday night matchup between Pittsburgh and St. Louis will have the deadline for making your selections one hour before the clash so get those winning picks in ASAP.

1.) Pittsburgh (-7½) at St. Louis (winner)

The Steelers are in a funk after dropping two straight games against the Patriots and Jaguars. The last time Pittsburgh played in St. Louis was in 1993 and the results was far from favorable (with the Steelers losing 27-0).

The argument for an upset here can be seen with the injury bug that has plagued Pitt this season. On top of the injuries, the Steelers haven’t had a lot of time to relax for this Thursday night contest.

But the Rams have struggled all season long and with a 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS record at home there’s a lot to be desired coming out of this camp. With QB Marc Bulger still trying to shake the cobwebs out of his head (concussion), the main attack will focus on RB Steven Jackson (who put together a 143 yard rushing attack with one score against Green Bay last week) versus a run defense depleted Steelers club.

However you want to dissect this game, Pittsburgh is going to want this win more then the Rams. Cleveland is currently tied with the Steelers in the AFC North (with Pitt truly ahead with a 5-0 conference record). If the Steelers want to make a strong push into the postseason then a convincing win against a sub-par Rams crew will be a good place to start.

Final Score: Pittsburgh 24, St. Louis 13

2.) Indianapolis (-7½) at Houston

My heart is pulling for Houston in this spot, but even with the possibility of seeing backups take over for Indy later in the game we all know how hard it is for opponents to take a contest inside the RCA Dome.

Home field advantage is basically sealed up for the Colts with the exception coming if they face New England in the playoffs. There’s not much to prove this week, but this team is a natural competitor. Don’t be surprised to see Indy take an early lead.

Two impressive victories against Tampa Bay (28-14) and Denver (31-13) have put the Texans on the map. There’s a great nucleus to build around for the future of this team but its still outclassed against the “big dogs” in the NFL.

The spread may seem a bit low, but we all know that the backups for Indy will hit the field. This will be more of a matter of when not if. Expect to see Colts’ RB Joseph Addai and WR Reggie Wayne to put on a clinic early on.

Final Score: Indianapolis 27, Houston 17

3.) N.Y. Jets (+9½) at Tennessee

Don’t mistake this pick; I’m not saying that the Jets will win in Tennessee. But after coming off an impressive stand against New England, New York has a chance to keep this contest close.

The Titans need this victory to keep their playoff chances alive. At 8-5 SU, Tennessee is still in the hunt, so expect this team to come flying out of the gate versus the Jets. Coach Jeff Fisher will most likely rely on the run attack against a New York team that has been torched for 141.1 YPG this year. Not only will “Gang Green” have to worry about the Titans’ RB LenDale White (960 rushing yards with seven TDs) but how about the fleet footed QB, Vince Young?

While the Jets won’t take this contest, expect a close battle at the very least. In their last three head-to-head contests, New York has gone 3-0 SU and ATS.

The Jets are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less then 150 passing yards in their previous game.

Note: Just be wary of who New York might plug into the QB role. Latest reports indicate that coach Eric Mangini is still undecided about who his starter behind center will be.

Final Score: Tennessee 20, N.Y. Jets 14

4.) San Francisco (+6½) vs. Tampa Bay

With the Buccaneers sealing their fate into the playoffs last week, QB Jeff Garcia and the crew will look to make adjustments before the regular season is officially over.

The reason why I have a lean on San Fran is in the fact that QB Shaun Hill is coming off successful back-to-back performances (combining for 378 passing yards with two scores). As poor as the 49ers have played this season, they want to close out the season with some dignity. And what better way then to keep the game competitive against ex-San Fran signal caller Jeff Garcia?

The Bucs surprised me a bit when they where ran off the field by Houston 28-14 in Week 14. Although this team is playoff bound, how much time will most of the starters get on the field? Again, I see Tampa taking this game straight out, but if RB Frank Gore can keep the ground beneath his feet, expect this contest to be closer then many expect.

Final Score: Tampa Bay 28, San Francisco 24

5.) Jacksonville (-13½) vs. Oakland

I’ve been gun shy this year at taking double-digit favorites but a Jacksonville team that is 2-0 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite gives me more reason to pull the trigger.

The Jags have been a scoring machine this season, averaging a league seventh best 23.9 PPG. With the intentions of keeping its top positioning in the Wild Card chase, Jacksonville has too much to lose versus an Oakland team just trying to get its bearings together.

I foresee the Jaguars playing hard nose defense, while running the ball down the Raiders’ throats with the tandem of Fred Taylor (who remains ‘questionable’) and Maurice Jones-Drew (both have combined for 1,815 rushing yards with 12 TDs).

As optimistic as you might be for Oakland, this group is in critical condition. In its last 10, the Raiders are 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS. And if their record wasn’t enough to sway you then a long trip across country should put the icing on the cake.

Oakland’s QB Josh McCown has been far from being effective, throwing 204 yards with two scores and two picks in his last two contests.

The Jags enter Sunday’s contest with a 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS record at home this season.

Final Score: Jacksonville 31, Oakland 16

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PHIL STEEL OF NORTHCOAST HAD TWO OF HIS TOP 3 BOWL SYSTEM PLAYS GO YESTERDAY WITH SOUTHERN MISS. AND UCLA,TWO WINNERS HIS 3RD TOP 3 BOWL SYSTEM PLAY GOES TODAY WITH EAST CAROLINA +10-

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PSYCHIC

2 units Jacksonville -13
2 units San Francisco +6
2 units Detroit -4.5
3 units Cincinnati +3
3 units Az/Atl OVER 43.5
5 units New England -22
WISEGUY

CFB

3 units East Carolina +10.5

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S. Spritzer's NFL Major Mismatch Game of the Year! (4-0, 100%) -- Sunday

I'm laying the points with the Packers who continue to press the Cowboys.

We've already heard that we should throw out the records when these two rivals do battle. I don't subscribe to that belief this season. Chicago's offense is a mess and they'll pay for it here. One of the big reasons Bears' QB Kyle Orton struggled out of college was the amount of time it took for him to scan his routes. By watching him against the Vikings the other night, it's pretty obvious the problem has not been remedied. Orton took a count too long to get rid of the ball, and with a banged-up offensive line trying to protect him, the Bears are in trouble. The Packers will bring pressure from all over the field in this one. And, they already own two of the better pass-rush duos in the NFL in Kampman & Gbaja-Biamila. Chicago finished the Minnesota loss with only 11 FDs, 209 total yards, and 32 rushing yards at 1.9 yards per carry. Offensively, the Packers may have found a RB in Ryan Grant, who's averaging almost 5 yards per pop. Some will argue that the Bears were able to slow down a Viking ground game and will do so again this week. But I don't buy it. There's a bit of a difference under center between Brett Favre and Tavaris Jackson. Chicago's defense will have to remain honest in this one. I look for Favre to spread the ball all over the field to his talented receivers like he's done all season. Cold/bad weather? No problem for Favre. Packers roll and they are my Major Mismatch GOY. Thanks! GL! Scott.

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L. Ness' LEGEND Play-NFL (5-1 in FB '07, including 2-0 in the NFL!)

My LEGEND play is on the Det Lions at 1:00 ET.

The Chiefs came off their bye week 4-3 and in first place in the AFC West. They've since lost SEVEN straight, going 1-6 ATS. QB Huard has not played in FOUR of the last five games, as Brodie Croyle has taken over. After posting a 99.2 QB rating in a 13-10 loss at Indy, he hasn't topped 67.7 in any of the other three games and takes a 71.7 rating for the year into this game. He's led the Chiefs offense (if one could call it that), to an average of just 12.8 PPG in those four starts, including a total of just 17 points in the two road games. Terrific TE Gonzalez has been wasted in this pass offense, Kennison has barely played all year (is expected to miss again) and rookie Bowe has just one TD catch during the team's seven-game slide. The Lions have a similar tale of woe, losing six straight (1-5 ATS), after a 6-2 start. Kitna predicted 10 wins but with a trip upcomig at Green Bay, 8-8 seems a stretch. However, let's note that the Lions' slide started at Arizona (a dangerous home team) and the last five losses have come to teams which would right now, all qualify for the playoffs (combined record of 50-20 .714)! Despite the team allowing a league-high 52 sacks, Kitna should top 4,000 YP (has 3,707) for the 2nd straight year and I expect a HUGE effort from him (and his teammates here). The Chiefs pass D has shown some real weaknesses lately, allowing Cutler four TDPs two weeks ago in Denver and Vince Young (and his 70.1 QB rating) to have one of his best games of the year last week in KC (only game this year that Young has had more than one TDP and zero INTs!). The Detroit D has its issues but KC's offense ranks 31st in YPG and 30th in PPG. Remember, the Lions had the Cowboys beat on this field in Week 14 and in their final home game (in front of some very disappointed fans), can ill-ford a weak effort. It's almost impossible to believe the Chiefs made the playoffs last year. I can almost see Edwards' best effort coming next week, against his old team, the Jets. LEGEND Play on the Det Lions. Good Luck...L


L. Ness' 20* December Total of the Month-NFL (14-5 run since '03 season!)

My 20* Total of the Month is on Phi/NO Over at 1:00 ET.

When L. plays an NFL total, "people take notice!" Since the beginning of the '03 season (one 20* total per month), his five-year run is now 14-5 or 73.7% ATS! Regulars also know that in Larry's current 9-2 run with NFL Las Vegas Insiders, he's 4-0 when playing a total. Looking for an easy over? "Look no further!" Good Luck...L.

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Ben Burns' AFC GAME OF THE YEAR!

I'm taking the points with CINCINNATI. Its amazing what a few short months can do. Back in Week 2, on 9/16, I released my NFL "Shocker of the Year" on the Browns over the Bengals. At the time, the Browns were playing at home, yet were getting seven points. Judging by the abnormally high number of "how did you see that one coming" emails that I received, people genuinely did seem shocked when the Browns won outright. Three months later, which find themselves listed as home underdogs. There were several reasons that the Bengals were laying so many points for the September meeting. Cincinnati was coming off a decent season and a Week 1 win. Cleveland, on the other hand, was coming off another terrible year and had gotten crushed in Week 1. Those Week 1 results and past perception certainly played a role in creating that Week 2 line. However, the primary reason that the Bengals were favored by so many points was that on paper, they were the better team. While the Browns have had a great year, I still believe that the Bengals are the more talented team. I also haven't seen enough from the Browns on the road to warrant them laying points away from Cleveland; certainly not against an angry and talented instate rival which will be more than happy to damage their playoff hopes. The Browns are just 3-4 on the road and none of the three wins were impressive. They barely won at St. Louis when the Rams were really banged-up and struggling. They literally squeaked out a win at Baltimore (kick bounced off upright to force OT) and then won at New York vs. the 3-11 Jets. Overall, they've been outscored by a 26.6 to 25.9 margin in their seven road games, while getting outgained by more than 50 total yards per game. Conversely, the Bengals are 4-3 at home where they've outscored opponents by a 24.6 to 22.9 margin and outgained them by nearly 25 total yards per game. The Bengals have won three straight at home in this series and I feel that they've got something to prove. Playing their home finale, I expect the offense to exploit Cleveland's below average defense, leading to an outright victory. *AFC GOY

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Wunderdog

Game: Houston at Indianapolis (Sunday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Houston +7 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

This line may look a bit low but the reality is, what does the game mean to Indianapolis? And, what has been their history when they have nothing to play for? Indianapolis can do nothing to change their playoff status, which has become the norm for this team down the stretch in recent years. The last five years the Colts have gone to week 16 with a combined record of 55-15. They have so many injuries, and with nothing to play for. Their history over the last five years would indicate that they are going to sleep-walk their way through these final final games. The Colts are 0-10 ATS the last five years in weeks 16 & 17. The fact is, for a team that won 55 of 70 leading into these games they are just 5-5 SU and in the last four years they have not won any game by more than 5 points! They have actually been out-scored by 46 points in the final two weeks of the season over the last five years. For Houston, this is a game that means so much. A win over the Colts puts a sense of validation on their season and ensures for the first time they don't finish with a losing record. In a nutshell, this is the Superbowl for the Texans. We would not be surprised if Houston plays good and wins this game straight up, so we will gladly take the TD, and go with a very live dog.


Game: New York Giants at Buffalo (Sunday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Buffalo +3 (-125) (risk 3 to win 2.4)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 32 -110

The Giants started the season 0-2 but then reeled off six straight wins. Again, they looked like they were headed for the playoffs. Then, as has been their history under Tom Coughlin, they seemed to quit. They have since gone 3-3 and again risk missing the playoffs. Their three wins came against struggling teams in Detroit, Chicago and Philadelphia. In their three losses, they lost by 16 points per game on average. In all of these games, Eli Manning has looked terrible. They now go on the road, favored by a field goal against a team that has won six of their last nine games. Buffalo's three losses? They came against New England, Jacksonville and Cleveland - teams that combine for a 33-9 record! This is not a must-win for New York. Even if they lose, if the Redskins and Saints lose, New York is in the playoffs. Jeremy Shockey, a key outlet for Manning, is done for the season. And, Plaxico Burress is still hobbled and was completely ineffective last week. Without Shockey and a healthy Burress, Manning could be even worse than he has been - which is saying a lot! Buffalo is out of the playoffs but they are still playing for a winning record. And Kevin Everett, hurt earlier this year and not expected to walk again, will be introduced prior to the game, giving an emotional lift to the Bills. Buffalo is a winning home team that is 6-1 ATS this season! Under Dick Juron, this Bills team is 10-1 ATS in close games (line from -3 to +3) and in his coaching career, Juron is 13-1 ATS at home vs. non-conference opponents. We are also adding the UNDER here as a late play based on expected weather conditions. This is a weather alert under play, that we have been taking advantage of all season. This game fits a system we have that has produced over 70% winners! Play the UNDER in this game, the earlier the better.


Game: Cleveland at Cincinnati (Sunday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Cincinnati +3 (-125) (risk 4 to win 3.2)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 43.5 -110

This line is just begging for action on Cleveland. Cincinnati lost last week in a primetime game to the lowly 49ers. They now stand at 5-9, with no chance to reach the respectable .500 mark. Cleveland has been the darlings of the NFL, expected to do nothing, yet they have now won four of their last five and sit at 9-5, pressuring the Steelers for the division title. So how can this line by just three points? We see the bookmakers trying to get you on Cleveland. And they are succeeding with 70% of the bets coming in on the Browns. We see a different story. Cleveland is coming off a highly emotional, intense game vs. Buffalo. Cincinnati was absolutely embarassed on national TV. It is no secret these teams hate each other, so the chance for a Cincinnati no-show is not very likely. In fact, expect the opposite. They'd like nothing more than to bounce the Brownies from a playoff spot. This is not a must-win for Cleveland. They get San Francisco at home next week and it's unlikely that they will need two win out. The Bengals are actually 4-3 at home, 4-2 if you toss out the New England game. In those six games, they are actually out-scoring their opponents. The Browns have been unstoppable at home as they have won six straight there, but the road has not been as kind. Cleveland is just 3-4 on the road, and a much different team. Cincinnati will be playing with revenge, and they are also 4-1 ATS as a short dog of 3 or less, in their last five. We like the Bengals to come away with an inspired effort and win against the Browns. We are also adding the UNDER here as a late play based on expected weather conditions. This is a weather alert under play, that we have been taking advantage of all season. This game fits a system we have that has produced over 70% winners! Play the UNDER in this game, the earlier the better.


Game: Green Bay at Chicago (Sunday 12/23 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 34.5 -110

We are also adding the UNDER here as a late play based on expected weather conditions. This is a weather alert under play, that we have been taking advantage of all season. This game fits a system we have that has produced over 70% winners! Play the UNDER in this game, the earlier the better.


Game: Tampa Bay at San Francisco (Sunday 12/23 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on San Francisco +6 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)

If you look at this game statistically, then the conclusion might be that it is a slam dunk for the Bucs. Statistics, however don't always win football games in the NFL. Take a look at the betting line on this game. This one opened at 7, and with close to 90% of all bets coming in on Tampa Bay, the line has been creeping downward all week. It dropped to 6.5, and is now down to 6. Ask yourself this - Why were the Bengals coming here last week and favored by 10 while this line is 6? Are the Bengals a better team than Tampa Bay? No. The Bucs have locked up their division, and can't improve themselves, as they will be a 3rd or 4th seed. Want an eye-popping stat. Tampa Bay in their franchise history, is 4-25 SU in games played on the West coast! If you think that was mostly achieved in the early days of this franchise when they simply were not winning games anywhere, that is not true. They have not won a game on the West coast since 1999, and that also represents the last time they have even covered a game out West. In the last 17 games they have played out here, they are 2-15 SU and have been out-scored by 26.8 to 14.6. They are 0-7 SU against San Francisco on the road since 1983. So in a nutshell, we have a team with nothing to play for, that hasn't won in 25 years in the Bay, and is 4-25 SU on the West coast. They are facing a team that was a double digit home underdog to a horrible Cincinnati team. And the Niners are now a dog of 4 points less, facing a playoff team off a monster win?!? The public is biting, jumping all over the Bucs. But still, the line is dropping off of key numbers? We will not back a team that has four wins in their franchise history on the West coast, and none here. We see value on the other side. In fact, we wouldnot be surprised to see lowly San Francisco play superb and win this game, so we will grab the points.


Game: Atlanta at Arizona (Sunday 12/23 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Atlanta +10 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

Can it get any worse for the Atlanta Falcons? They lose their best player in Mike Vick to start the season. Vick's backup is now one of the most promising new starters in the league - for a different team, as the Falcons let him go in the offseason. Starting November 18, they go on a five game losing streak giving up 31+ points in four of the games. In the middle of that, Vick's sentencing hits and you can see how hard it hit the players, who were happy to pay fines for dress code violations just to get #7 plastered over their bodies. Their last loss was absolutely horrible as Tampa Bay pasted them 37-3. Then, after that, their coach quits on the team before the season is over! Finally, they get snubbed by Bill Barcells. This is a sinking ship - get off of it quickly! They are headed on the road to face a team that recently had playoff hopes - another trouncing no doubt. Not so fast! Remember, we like to buy low and sell high. It doesn't get any lower than Atlanta right now. But, are they really this bad? Should they be getting double-digits from a team that is 6-8 and has lost three of their last four? The Falcons have faced some stiff competition during their five-game slide including Tampa Bay twice and Indianapolis. They also caught St. Louis and New Orleans on days where those teams showed up. This will be the second start for Chris Redman and that's a huge leap from start #1. We expect the Cards to take Atlanta a bit lightly, chalking this up as an automatic win. We expect Atlanta to show up after the debacle last week as they are 15-5 ATS in their last twenty road games following a game in which they were outgained by 150+ yards and 13-4 ATS on the road off a game in which they allowed 175+ rushing yards. With everyone counting them out, this is the time to back the Falcons.


Game: New York Jets at Tennessee (Sunday 12/23 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Jets +9 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6)

Tennessee is off a semingly convincing victory over the Chiefs. But, that 26-17 win was in question for most of the game. A late 41-yard TD pass by Vince Young to Roydell Williams made the final score a bit misleading. The fact remains that Tennessee has been a pretty bad team since mid-season. While posting a 6-2 mark (5-1-1 ATS) to start the year, they have since gone 2-4 SU and ATS. Teams have adjusted to Vince Young and are now limiting his effectiveness. At first (last season), Young befuddled defenses. But the NFL is a place where no advantage lasts forever. The Titans' offense is ranked 21st in the league and have become a one-dimensional team. The Jets are improving. Yes, we know they have lost their last two games. But, they played very well against excellent teams. Three weeks ago they destroyed the Dolphins 40-13. Then they gave Cleveland a fight, losing by 6 points (less than this spread). And, last week, they stayed right with the Patriots, forcing the worst game of the season for Tom Brady (first game with no TDs). Tennesse isn't nearly as good as either Cleveland or New England. The Titans are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games laying 6+ points. Under Jeff Fisher, they are 20-33 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Instead of being down after losing last week, we think the Jets are motivated by their success in staying close to a New England team that was out for blood. This is too many points.

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Rocketman Sports Comp

Golden State @ Cleveland 6:05 PM EST
Play On: 1* Cleveland -2

Golden State is allowing 107 points per game overall this year and 106.9 points per game on the road this season. Cleveland is scoring 100.6 points per game at home this year. Cleveland is 9-2 SU and ATS at home vs Golden State since 1996. Cleveland is 8-2 ATS last 10 against NBA Pacific opponents. We'll recommend a small play on Cleveland tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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CKO

10 EAST CAROLINA over Boise State
Late Score Forecast: EAST CAROLINA 35 - Boise State 34
Hawaii Bowl at Honolulu, Hawaii (Sunday, December 23, 2007)

As a representative of the wild & wooly wars in the C-USA this season, East Carolina certainly no stranger to shootouts. The Pirate defense, big and deep up front to start the season, suffered lots of attrition, but is now healthier after several weeks off. And Skip Holtz’ Pirate offense is capable of scoring against all but the best defenses. While ECU is 6-1 as a double-digit underdog, note that Boise’s magic often disappears when the Broncos lay double figures away from their blue-carpeted home (3-11 in that role). Boise players were superfocused for LY’s Fiesta Bowl vs. Oklahoma; this year they are the “hunted,” with HC Peterson promising they’re going to enjoy what the islands have to offer.

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Vegas Hotsheet

HAWAII BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN
341 E Carolina 30
342 Boise St 45
Boise St. -10½

Free Pick: Over 70

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Dr. Bob

Strong Opinion
Boise St. (-10.5) 41 East Carolina 25 (at Hawaii Bowl) 05:00 PM Pacific, 23-Dec-07 Boise State lost to the only two better than average teams that they played this year, dropping road games to Washington and Hawaii, but the Broncos won their other 9 games against Division 1A teams by an average score of 47-19 while winning 8 of those 9 games by double-digit margins. East Carolina may be 7-5, but don’t mistake the Pirates for a better than average team. East Carolina out-scored their opponents by an average of 0.4 points per game while playing a schedule that was 4.5 points worse than average. The Pirates do have one quality win, a 52-38 home win over CUSA champ Central Florida, but it took a +5 in turnover margin to win that game.

The Pirates are decent offensively, averaging 5.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack, and that unit should move the ball at a decent rate against a Boise State defense that was 0.1 yppl better than average in 11 games against Division 1A opponents (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team). It’s the other side of the ball where the Pirates have their problems and where they’ll be overmatched in this game. East Carolina allowed 5.7 yppl this season to a collection of teams that would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average stop unit. That defense doesn’t have much of a chance to stop a balanced Boise State attack that averaged 6.3 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. Boise State feasted on worse than average defensive teams and should score a good number of points in this game.

Enhancing Boise’s overall advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game is their great special teams, which once against ranks among the best in the nation and consistently supplies the Broncos with good field position while pinning their opponents deep in their end of the field. A team that out-gains their opponents 6.3 yppl to 5.0 yppl, as Boise did in their 11 games against 1A competition would normally out-score their opponents by about 12 points per game, but Boise State out-scored their 11 Division 1A opponents by 20.3 points per game in part because of their incredible special teams. East Carolina has mediocre special teams and that should be the difference between a competitive game and a potential blowout.

My math model favors Boise State by 17 points in this game but I’ll resist making Boise State a Best Bet because East Carolina is 15-4 ATS as an underdog under coach Skip Holtz (although 0-1 as a Bowl underdog). My math model also predicts a total of 65.3 points and the under looks like a decent play too. I did my profile analysis on this game, which basically projects scores based on how well each team has played against teams with similar statistical characteristics (using regression analysis on each facet of the opponent’s stats – run offense, pass defense, etc). The profile analysis of Boise State suggests that they’d total 66 points against a team with East Carolina’s level of offense and defense while the profile analysis on ECU projects a total of 63 total points against a team with Boise State’s statistical profile. Either way, the games is likely to go under the 70 point total.

I’ll consider Boise State a Strong Opinion at -11 points or less and I’ll lean with the under at 69 points or higher.

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The Platinum Sheet
Best Bets

Football

12/23/07 (325) NY GIANTS at (326) BUFFALO
Anyone following my plays this season has probably realized that I have a good read on
when the Giants will or won’t make for a good play. After Sunday night’s loss to Washington, most of the football world has turned against the G-Men, figuring they’ll do anything they can to give up their wildcard spot. The way I look at this game against Buffalo though, it is the Bills who will be the much more deflated of the two teams. They lost a huge game last week, eliminating any chance at making the postseason. Plus, if you compare the raw strength indicators of these teams, you’ll find two different level clubs. In point differential, New York is +0.5 PPG, Buffalo -5.5. In StatFox Outplay Factor Rating, New York is -0.1, Buffalo is -4.0. The Giants need to win, they play well on the road, and are the better team. They’ll get their win here.
Play: NY Giants -3

12/23/07 (331) WASHINGTON at (332) MINNESOTA
Two straight solid performances by Joe Gibbs’ club has me believing that they could have what it takes to make the postseason yet. The team that took the fififield on Sunday night in New York was a focused bunch that seemed to be channeling its emotion from the whole Sean Taylor tragedy into positive energy. With that extra motivation in mind, the Redskins will head to Minnesota with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance.
Speaking of balance, I believe favored teams have to possess it on offense. Minnesota has still not shown the ability to move the ball through the air and in big games, that weakness tends to come to the forefront. If you need one more thing, perhaps this trend illustrating the Skins’ prowess as a road underdog might do it. WASHINGTON is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. The average score
was WASHINGTON 20.0, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 1*). This one goes down to the wire. I’ll take the points.
Play: Washington +7

12/23/07 (339) TAMPA BAY at (340) SAN FRANCISCO
Ok. Now that everyone is convinced of how much San Francisco is turned around because it was able to beat a weak-minded Cincinnati club, it is the perfect time to fade the 49ers. One game does not make a season, and had it not been for that upset on Saturday, we are probably staring at a line in the -9 to -9.5 range for Tampa Bay. The Bucs are playing solid football, no disputing that. In fact, defensively, they have only had one “blip on the radar”, in their last nine games, that coming at home against Washington when they allowed 412 yards but benefitted from six turnovers. Other
than that, opponents have been lucky to sniff 250 yards of offense. Now, with the opponent being the league’s #32 offense, a team with numbers so dreadful I can’t recall similar, I would expect the Bucs to come up with a big effort again. Other than being on the road, I don’t see any reason why Tampa shouldn’t manhandle the 49ers the same way they did the Falcons.
Play: Tampa Bay -7

Hawaii Bowl - Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI
Sunday, December 23rd - 8:00 PM - (341) E CAROLINA vs. (342) BOISE ST
On paper, this game seems like a potential mismatch. Boise State, led by star RB Ian Johnson, had another stellar 10 win season. As usual, they were dominant at home on the “Smurf Turf”, logging a 7-0 season. Offensively, even with first year starter Taylor Tharp, they were very efficient, scoring 42.7 PPG and gaining 477 YPG. East Carolina finished 2nd in Conference USA’s East division with a 6-2 record. Like most of the other Conference USA teams this year, they were plagued by defensive problems (436 YPG allowed). Despite the mismatch in certain stat categories, there are reasons for hope for the Pirates. First, they are double digit underdogs in a December Bowl game – a winning system historically. Second, Boise State is clearly not the same dominant team
on the road as they are at home. The Broncos were just 3-2 away from home, scoring 9 fewer PPG than their season average. Third, the WAC conference was down this season, especially at the bottom of the conference. WAC teams were an awful 1-18 in non-conference road games, worst in the nation. Finally, Boise State returns to the scene of their biggest disappointment this season – a loss to Hawaii with the WAC title on the line. The Hawaii Bowl has to be viewed as a disappointment and a letdown is certainly possible.
Play: E Carolina +10.5


The Platinum Sheet
Best Bets

Hoops

12/23/2007 (501) LA LAKERS at (502) NEW YORK
A Sunday matinee affair brings Kobe and the Lakers to Manhattan, where they will surely be favored by a signififificant margin against the wretched Knicks. However,
that in itself is cause for concern for those hoping to back Los Angeles: LA LAKERS are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 105.1, OPPONENT 104.2 - (Rating = 1*). Giving up 105.6 PPG on the road, the Lakers don’t
make for a real strong road favorite. In addition, the Knicks have seemingly always embraced the chance to fill it up with the higher scoring teams in the league: NEW YORK is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game since 1996. The average score was NEW YORK 100.1, OPPONENT
102.2 - (Rating = 2*). The Knicks swept the Lakers a year ago. It’s tough to see them getting blown out in this one.
Play: New York +7.5

12/23/2007 (511) VIRGINIA TECH at (512) WAKE FOREST
Wake Forest was projected to be one of, if not THE, worst team in the ACC this season. Noting their shooting woes in the early going, there’s nothing I’ve seen yet to believe that is still not the case. Now in the conference opener for both clubs, why not fade the worst team? The Deacons are shooting 40% from the floor, less than 30% from the field, and 63.5% from the line, all figures ranked in the bottom 25% of all teams. Their StatFox Outplay Factor Rating as of Monday was +3.3. Tech’s meanwhile, was +12.6, sharing the same won-lost mark against a schedule that rated an average of six points better on the StatFox Power Rating scale. Tech’s shoots 46.6% on offense and holds opponents to 39.4% on defense, thus earning the descriptive “excellent team”. WAKE FOREST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.
Play: Virginia Tech +1.5
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PPP

Hawaii Bowl
5*E.Carolina

NFL
5*New Orleans Over
4*Cincinnati
4*San Fransisco
3*Detroit
3*Tennessee
3*Jacksonville under
3*Cincinnati over

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