Thursday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

Thursday Service Picks and Consensus Reports:

Burns NFL


REDSKINS (-3 or better)

Game: Chicago Bears vs. Washington Redskins Game Time: 12/6/2007 8:15:00 PM Prediction: Washington Redskins Reason: I'm laying the points with WASHINGTON. Both teams come off disappointing losses and both now have equal 5-7 records. The team that wins today will still have an outside shot at a wildcard spot while the team that loses will be completely done. Given the venue and the circumstances, I feel that the Redskins will be the more focused and motivated squad. Although disappointed with their current position, realistically, most Redskins' players and fans weren't banking on an extended playoff run this season. Conversely, the defending NFC Champs and their fans assumed winning the NFC North was pretty much a given. The Bears showed some heart in their comeback win over the Broncos two weeks ago. However, any glimmer of hope gained from that victory largely vanished when they blew a 16-7 fourth quarter lead vs. the Giants last week. Playing on a short week, I believe that it will be tough to recover from that painful conference loss. While the Redskins also blew a fourth quarter lead, judging by comments from the players, there was more of a sense of relief to get the game over with (due to the tragic death of safety Sean Taylor) than any dwelling on the loss and what could have been. Now, while still very sad about the loss of their friend, the Redskins are ready to re-focus on football. In other words, I feel that while the Bears may still be thinking about last week, the Redskins have already put that loss behind them. Now, they are ready to go out and win one for their fallen teammate. Its noteworthy that we've reached Week 14, as the Redskins were 5-2-1 ATS (Bears were 2-5-1 ATS) in 2005 and 2006 when playing during the final four weeks of the regular season. I also feel that its significant to point out the yardage difference that these teams have accumulated through their first 12 games. Despite geting badly outgained in the blowout loss to New England, the Redskins are still outgaining their opponents by an average of 330-314 for the season. Conversely, the Bears are getting outgained by a 356-301 average. That differential has been even more pronounced the past three games. While the Bears' offense is getting outgained by a 404-317 margin, the Redskins have outgained their last three foes by a 372-303 margin. The Redskins should be smart enough to avoid letting Hester beat them and I expect their offense to once again outgain the Bears. Combine that with homefield advantage and what I expect will be an emotional advantage, I look for a solid win and cover. *Main Event

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Burns NBA

PORTLAND (+2 or better)

Game: Miami Heat vs. Portland Trail Blazers Game Time: 12/6/2007 10:35:00 PM Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers Reason: I'm taking the points with PORTLAND. The majority of the betting public will be taking the Heat to snap their losing streak tonight. However, I expect their struggles to continue for another night. Dwayne Wade is back and playing relatively well. The Heat are still losing though. They've lost three straight and are just 4-13 for the season. The Blazers are coming off their first road win of the season, shooting a sizzling 51% while scoring 106 points at Memphis. The Blazers got a solid effort from the entire team with especially big games from Brandon Roy and Travis Outlaw. While that was a first on the road, the Blazers have already shown that they're capable of playing that way here at home. In fact, they've won five of eight games here including victories over the likes of Dallas and Detroit. Its also worth noting that the Blazers have thrived over the past year in the "small underdog" role. Since November of last season, they've gone 14-5 ATS (12-7 SU!) when listed as underdogs of four points or less. Miami, on the other hand, is 8-12 ATS the last 20 times it was a favorite of four points or less, losing 11 of those games outright. While it won't be the Oden/Shaq matchup that TNT was hoping for, I look for Roy and co. to provide plenty of highlights as the Blazers keep the momentum going from their first road victory. *TNT GOW

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burns college basketball


DETROIT (+9 or better)

Game: Butler vs. Detroit U Game Time: 12/6/2007 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Detroit U Reason: I'm taking the points with DETROIT. This is a tough spot for Butler. The Bulldogs are coming off four straight wins over teams from major conferences and they've got a date with their biggest rival from the Horizon League (Wright State) on deck. Butler managed a 10-point win here last season. However, the Titans have actually won six of the last eight meetings here, including a 73-71 win here in 2006. The Titans are off to a 4-3 start and none of their losses have come by greater than eight points. The Titans have been keeping their games close by playing excellent defense, as they are allowing 63 points per game, including just 61.3 at home. The Bulldogs reached the Sweet 16, set a school and Horizon League record with 29 wins and spent most of the season ranked in the Top 25. However, they also lost head coach Todd Lickliter to Iowa and senior starters Brandon Crone and Brian Ligon to graduation. While they are obviously still an excellent team, I don't feel that the Bulldogs deserve to be favored by nearly a touchdown more than they were favored by at this venue last season. Expect them to have their hands full, falling to 2-6 ATS the last eight times they were listed as road favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. *Roast

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Thu, 12/06/07 - 8:15 PM JWhip | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
102 WAS -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 101 CHI
Analysis:
Redskins -3 (2 Unit)

The Washington Redskins have not only endured a tough time off-the-field with the death of S Sean Taylor, but they have also suffered three straight gut wrenching defeats.



If you have been following me throughout the NFL season, you would already know that I am not a fan of their QB Jason Campbell but I must say he is growing on me.

11/18 Campbell had a stellar game (348 passing yards) against the Cowboys, and had his team on the verge of pulling the upset until a late INT.

11/25 Again passed over 300 yards and once again was solid in the pocket guiding his team to the win until another late INT.

The Jason Campbell I was growing accustomed to wouldnt have showed that poise in the pocket.

Even with Campbell looking and playing better his team has lost four straight tough games, by a one touchdown or less.

According to team insiders the Skins are "very focused" on this game and feel much better after paying their respects to their fallen teammate Sean Taylor. Some thing they were not for last Sundays game before the funeral.

The Bears meanwhile come into this game struggling as well, and let a the shaky Eli Manning come back to defeat them last week in what the team has called a "very disappointing" loss.

The weather is calling for low 30s so expect the Skins to be running the ball against this Bears team (behind G Randy Thomas who is expected back) which is allowing an unexpected high of 131 rushing yards per game.

The Redskins will be focused while the Bears are still in up-and-down mode for this short week, and the Skins will get this much needed emotional win.

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Thu, 12/06/07 - 8:15 PM Stephen Nover | NFL Side
double-dime bet101 CHI 3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 102 WAS
Analysis:
A last-second heartbreaking loss to lowly Buffalo following a horrendous coaching blunder by Joe Gibbs.



Sean Taylor's funeral on Monday.

Do you think the Redskins are emotionally ready to play a football game on Thursday? I sure don't. Washington has dropped four in a row. The Redskins aren't some great team that can win without any emotion or proper game-planning.

Playing on Thursday on this of all weeks, is terrible luck for the Redskins. They are 1-8-1 against the spread versus teams with a losing mark.

The Bears lost last week. Since Week 4 the Bears have alternated losses with wins. I see that pattern continuing here.

Chicago's defense still retains its star power with Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and several top pass rushers. Rex Grossman, believe it or not, has been productive since taking over as the starting quarterback again.

Grossman has a three-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio after throwing six interceptions and just one touchdown before his benching.

Don't forget about the Devin Hester factor. He's returned five kicks/punts for touchdowns this season. The Redskins either have to kick to him or give the Bears good field position.

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Brandon Lang

THURSDAY

10 DIME
REDSKINS -
MAVERICKS

5 DIME
PROVIDENCE
VALPARAISO

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Big Al

At 7 pm, our Horizon Conference Game of the Month is on the Detroit Mercy Titans plus the points over Butler.

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THE SPORTS ADVISORS



NFL


Chicago (5-7, 4-8 ATS) at Washington (5-7, 3-7-2 ATS)

The Bears and the Redskins look to bounce back from tough losses and rejoin the NFC playoff picture when they get together at FedEx Field for a Thursday night battle.
Chicago saw a 16-7 fourth-quarter lead turn into a 21-16 home loss to the New York Giants on Sunday as a one-point underdog, continuing a trend that has seen the Bears alternate SU and ATS wins and losses in their last nine games. QB Rex Grossman, for a change, avoided any turnovers in going 25 of 46 for 296 yards and a TD, but he couldn?t engineer a late scoring drive. The Bears also gave up 154 rushing yards to Giants RB Derrick Ward.
Playing under the cloud of safety Sean Taylor?s shooting death, Washington was dealt a 17-16 home loss to Buffalo as a six-point favorite, dropping its fourth straight game, this one on a last-second field goal made easier by coach Joe Gibbs? mental error. With the Bills? Rian Lindell lining up for a 51-yard attempt in the final seconds, Gibbs called consecutive timeouts, the second of which drew a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, and Lindell then booted the 36-yard game-winner.
Chicago has followed its last four losses this season with SU and ATS victories, and Lovie Smith?s team is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight non-divisional road games. However, the Bears are on ATS slides of 5-13 overall, 3-10 against the NFC and 2-6 when playing outside the NFC North this year.
Not only have the Redskins lost four in a row, but they?re on a 1-6 ATS slide, including 0-3 ATS at home. Moreover, Washington is stuck in ATS slumps of 1-6-2 at FedEx Field, 2-7-1 as a home favorite, 1-5-2 against non-division foes and 1-9-1 against teams with a losing record.
The straight-up winner is 11-1 ATS in Chicago?s games this season, including 10-0 ATS in the last 10.
These teams have met four times since 2001 and the visitor has covered the spread in all four, including in 2005, when the Bears lost 9-7 in Washington as a 5?-point underdog.
The under is 13-6-3 in Washington?s last 22 games against the NFC, 4-2 for the Bears overall and 21-5-1 when Chicago is as an underdog of three points or less.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO and UNDER

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North Star Sports Service


NFL - 12/6/2007
CHICAGO atWASHINGTON Over 37.5

CBB - 12/6/2007
TOWSON 12

NHL - 12/6/2007
VANCOUVER at NASHVILLE Over 5

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THE SPORTS REPORTER

COLLEGE BASKETBALL
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6

*PROVIDENCE over SOUTH CAROLINA by 6

RECOMMENDED
*WRIGHT STATE over VALPARAISO by 12
Yes, DaShaun Wood is gone, but Wright State continues to click along for Brad Brownell.
Recent, decent Valpo performances should keep price reasonable, but Raiders have been
devastating on home floor against teams they figure to dominate . . . and we?d look for
an above-average measure of sharpness, with Butler coming to call in just 48 hours.
Keep tabs re eligibility issues Valpo German power forward Benjamin Fumey. WRIGHT STATE, 70-58.

*TEMPLE over TOWSON by 10
BUTLER over *DETROIT by 11

*CONNECTICUT over NORTHEASTERN by 19
Last roundup prior to a 10-day break for homestanding Huskies, with no Big East games on
the horizon prior to Dec. 28. So, let?s let it all hang out, eh? Loss to Gonzaga was disappointing,
but Zags have done that to a lot of big names, for a number of years. Continue to
count on sustained, steady UConn development. CONNECTICUT, 83-64.

*ILLINOIS CHICAGO over WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE by 5
*LOYOLA CHICAGO over WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY by 2


RECOMMENDED
*VILLANOVA over LSU by 14
Not urging you to pay a bustout-retail price, but there?s a significant inherent class differential
here, and can envision ?Cats shaking loose and coasting home against largely
undisciplined, careless foe. VILLANOVA, 76-62.



NBA

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6

MINNESOTA over *ATLANTA by 4
Do the T?wolves have what it takes to notch a rare road victory? They just might against an
Atlanta Hawks team that routinely makes opposing big men look like superstars. Watch for
Al Jefferson to get his touches and post another double-double effort. MINNESOTA 93-89


BEST BET
DENVER over *DALLAS by 7
Weary legs could be the theme of the night for the first half of the TNT doubleheader.
Both teams played last night in meaningful games, the Nuggets taking on the Lakers at
home and the Mavericks battling the Spurs in San Antonio. Still, it?s likely that both teams
put up a modicum of effort with such a large audience watching ? which could mean a
lot of missed shots. Keep in mind that the Mavericks are in the midst of a stretch of playing
three straight four game weeks, while the Nuggets have had a much lighter schedule
of late. Consider the Mavericks prime targets for an upset loss. DENVER 107-100


MIAMI over *PORTLAND by 7
The Heat have a history of playing very well in Portland, winning in seven of their last eight
visits and covering six of those games. Being the second half of the national broadcast will
also help keep Shaquille O?Neal?s motivation up to speed. MIAMI 97-90


NFL

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 6
*CHICAGO over WASHINGTON by 1
The 5-7 SU Redskins will be playing this game off a short week made even shorter by their
mass-attendance funeral for ex-teammate Sean Taylor in Miami on Monday. a Very tough
task. The 5-7 SU Mini-Hesters have worked around Rex Grossman?s terrible-ness enough
times in the past, but without points from the kick returner, maybe they can?t overcome all
of Rex?s rotten tosses because despite being better off without Cedric Benson, his replacement
is definitely the wrong Adrian Peterson to have in a choice between the two RBs.
Washington players have never had a love affair with the current group of coaches, and now
that Joe Gibbs has certified his ex-genius, latter-day moron status by moving up the Buffalo
field goal kicker 15 yards to get the Redskins beat, his players are unlikely to be looking at
him and his assistant cronies in awe as they attempt to figure out what to do with the rest
of their season, which isn?t dead yet with a second Wild Card up for grabs. The interceptions
that Jason Campbell threw against the Cover-2 at Tampa Bay two games ago -- right to DBs
as if they were the intended receiver -- could be a foreshadowing of what's to come here.
CHICAGO, 14-13.
       

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Karl Garrett
1 MINNESOTA

Yeah, yeah, I know all about the Wolves woes this season, and I know they bring a 4-game losing streak into this one, losing their last 3 games by double-digits. But Minny hasn't exactly played the dregs of the association, as they have met up with Dallas, San Antonio, and the Lakers during their current slide. While Atlanta is improved this season, I don't think they are improved enough that they should be asked to cover near double-digits tonight, even at home. The Hawks did win a 94-87 contest as the 3-point road chalk at the Target Center back on November 24th, and I can see a similar final tonight. Atlanta is just 1-2 against the spread when laying 5-points or more this year, so look for a Hawks outright, and a Timberwolves cover. Grab the points with the road dog tonight.

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Frank Rosenthal

NFL WEEK # 14
THURSDAY DECEMBER 6TH
BEARS VS REDSKINS
101 BEARS+3 SB
UNDER 38 SB+


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NBA
704 MAVS-7 SB+
705 HEAT-3 SB
UNDER 186.5 SB+

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLLEGE HOOPS
708 PROVIDENCE-3 SB
712 TEMPLE-12 SB+
722 VILLANOVA-9 SB
724 NIAGARA-3 SB

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Marco D'Angelo | CBB Sides Single-Dime Bet
707 S.Carolina 3.5 (-110) BetUS vs 708 Providence
Analysis: Providence looks to bounce back laying a small number. That scenario is generally not a profitable one and that's why we are backing the road dog that will pull the Outright Upset here. TAKE S. CAROLINA and make them a SINGLE DIME PLAY.


Marco D'Angelo | CBB Sides Single-Dime Bet
722 Villanova -9.0 (-110) BetUS vs 721 LSU
Analysis: Villanova plays host to LSU tonight on ESPN. The line on this game tells me that Vegas wants you to take the Dog so we are going to back Villanova. Look for Villanova to win by 14-17 points. TAKE VILLANOVA and make them a SINGLE DIME PLAY.


Marco D'Angelo | NBA Sides Single-Dime Bet
703 DEN 8.0 (-110) BetUS vs 704 DAL
Analysis: This game falls into one of my favorite NBA situations and that's when both teams played last night and both teams lost and both teams are traveling to get to tonight's game. When this occurs take the road dog. TAKE DENVER and make them a SINGLE DIME PLAY.

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Malinsky NBA 5*

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dallas Mavericks (-8)

Rationale: (paraphrasing) - teams going from the altitude of Denver and having to play the following night do not fair well. The affect of this is only heightened when teams have to travel eastward and are forced to adjust to a timezone change. The NBA tries to avoid this situation as the Nuggets only had to do it twice LY (losing by 20 and 15 points). Throw in the fact that the Nugget starters exhausted themselves versus the Lakers in last night full tilt war while no starter for the Mavs played beyond 40 minutes against the Spurs, we can anticipate annihilation tonight.

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Big Al
Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks
Thursday, December 6th, 8:05 PM ET

At 8:05 pm, our member selection is on the Dallas Mavericks. Last night we went against Dirk Nowitzki & Co. and took the Spurs minus Tim Duncan. San Antonio rewarded us with a 2-point victory. But we'll play on Avery Johnson's crew to rebound off that loss with a blowout win over Denver, as Dallas has covered 14 of 21 at home vs. the Nuggets. Lay it.

Play on: Dallas

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Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CBB (4-1 run last 22 days!)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on Wisconsin-Green Bay at 8:00 ET. Butler is the "class of the Horizon League" but Wisconsin-Green Bay feels as if it can be a strong No.2 to the Bulldogs this year, although Valparaiso and Wright State (last year's champs) may argue. However, I'm 'buying' what UWGB's head coach Rob Jeter is 'selling.' The Phoenix return four of five starters and in the early going, 5-10 freshman PG Fletcher (13.1) has adequately replaced the lone starter lost from last year, Evanochko (15.0). The 6-9 Schachtner (19.7-4.7) will "have his way" inside in this game and the Phoenix have had 10 players see action in all seven games this year, with NINE of those players averaging better than double digits in minutes. Loyola-Chicago fell short of expectations last year despite 21 wins and has just one returning starter this year, 6-1 guard Blount (17.5). He's joined by a weird starting lineup in which he's the only "true" guard, as the team is full of 6-6 to 6-8 players getting most of the minutes. The 6-6 Young (10.3-6.0) is the only other starter reaching double digits and the Ramblers have lost their last four games, since opening with wins over Le Moyne and Eastern Illinois (big deal!). Meanwhile, the Phoenix (5-2) have lost at only Ohio St and a pretty good U Mass team. The WRONG team is favored in this one and the Phoenix should have little trouble winning here (which ensures a cover!). Oddsmaker's Error on Wisconsin-Green Bay

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Karl Garrett

40 DIMER
CHICAGO BEARS

10 DIMERS
CHICAGO UNDER
VILLANOVA

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Maddux Sports
#102 - NFL - 2 units on Washington -3

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Insider Sports Report
4* Denver/Dallas (NBA) OVER 213.5
Range 212 to 215.5
4* Providence -3.5 over S. Carolina (NCAAB)
Range -1.5 to -5.5
3* Chicago/Washington (NFL) OVER 37
Range 35 to 39

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Charlies Sports Members Section
nfl. chicago @ washington under 37' (500* )
nfl. chicago+3 (30*)
nba. dallas-7-7 (20*)
cbb. south carolia+3' (20*)
cbb. villanova-9' (10*)
nba. minnesota+10 (10*) free play

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