Saturday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports:

Saturday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports:

NFL Chicks clients = -32.00 units (43-44)
NFL Chicks fade = -8.90 units (44-43)

NCAAF Chicks clients = -35.90 units (15-22-1)
NCAAF Chicks fade = +26.10 units (23-15)

4-Dawg Pack (emailed early Tuesday)

Game Of The Year 11 units ~ 359 Virginia +4
Game Of The Year 10 units ~ 377 Iowa +7
9 units ~ 327 Army +25.5
6 units ~ 313 Mississippi St +24

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kodiak

5units:
Rutgers +3
Louisville -3.5
Colorado +4
Michigan St +17
Ohio Pick
Michigan -2.5
Kentucky +7
SJSU +13

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BURNS SAT COLLEGE
Mountain West Game of the Month - San Diego State
Big 12 Game of the Month - Colorado
Situational Game of the Month - Utah State
Shocker of the Month - Pittsburgh
Pac Ten Game of the Year - Washington
SEC Main Event - Alabama
False Favorite - Western Michigan

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Dave Malinksy:

PICK: Army
Your pick will be graded at: 25 SPORTSBETTING
REASON FOR PICK: 5* ARMY over GEORGIA TECH

We have been able to cash 6* and 5* tickets with Army in two outings as road underdogs against ACC opponents already this season, and now it is time to go to the well again, with outstanding value in a unique situation. In this case it is not only a chance to play on Army, but against Georgia Tech as well.


For a quick re-cap on the Black Knight side of the equation, Stan Brock inherited something rather rare in West Point when he took over this year – a defense that was loaded with experience. As always they are a few pounds light and a few steps slow, but there is a chemistry that gives the unit some grit. It also allows for a different level of coaching to be done each week, and given that we can always expect a hard effort for the full 60 minutes from an Academy squad, it makes taking the big numbers offered this season the same value it has been through the years in this range. Throw in a play-maker like Jeremy Trimble, and a punter in Owen Tolson that can aid in the field position battles (18 punts downed inside the opponents 20-yard line already this season, making it 52 for his career), and we have more pieces than a team in this category will usually bring to the table.


It is the flip side here that might be the most intriguing, however. Although it sounds rather simplistic, the bottom line is when you get past the midway point in a college season, a team should almost never be favored by more points than their scoring average. We won’t give away the details of this pattern in the past, but suffice to say that this has been a grinder for decades, and Georgia Tech is sitting at -25.5 despite the fact that the Yellow Jackets have only averaged 20.3 per game in their first six lined contests (we only count scoring against board opponents). In four of those six games they did not even score this week’s spread, and in another they managed only 26 vs. Maryland, with seven of those points coming via a fumble return by the defense for a touchdown. The passing game has not been able to make up for the loss of Calvin Johnson, rating 113th in the nation in efficiency, which makes the kind of quick strikes needed to cover as a big favorite difficult to come by.


The clincher here is that Chan Gailey is not interested much in a cover anyway. Gailey has been a gentleman in these settings in the past, and note that since getting a big win over Vanderbilt in his first ever game as Tech coach, when there was an earnest desire to go all-out the entire way, he is just 3-9-1 ATS when laying double figures. Off of five straight conference games, including grueling affairs vs. Maryland and Miami the last two weeks that went to the final possession, this is hardly the spot for him to look for an explosion – it is simply time to take care of business, grind it out, give some key players a breather (Tashard Choice is not going to get 37 carries this week), and move on.


PICK: Florida
Your pick will be graded at: -6.5 Sportsbook
REASON FOR PICK: 4* FLORIDA over KENTUCKY

We absolutely must tip our caps to Rich Brooks and the job that his staff did vs. L.S.U. last week as the Wildcats pulled that stunning upset, but now the situation changes in a major way, and with -6.5 becoming common with the Gators we have an excellent chance to exploit this setting.


Beating L.S.U. shows the kind of talent that Brooks has to work with at some key positions, most notably QB Andre Woodson. But the bottom line is that this roster is still short of the kind of depth that it takes to complete week-in and week-out against the SEC’s upper echelon, especially on defense, where they are dead last in the conference against the run, and are allowing 44 percent 3rd down conversions. They managed to gut out league wins despite allowing Arkansas to run for 338 yards on 6.6 per attempt and L.S.U. for 261 and 5.2, but that is playing with fire, especially since rushing defense is the one aspect of a depth-shy team that can only get worse as the season goes on. Now the Wildcats are playing their 8th straight week without a bye, have to go at it without key offensive playmaker Rafael Little, and now face a setting that is vastly different from last week.


Last Saturday they were catching an L.S.U. team that was physically drained from a grueling win over Florida, and also mentally ripe for an upset after a week of carrying the #1 mantle around. Contrast that with a Gator team that comes in fresh this week off of a bye, and in a gnarly mood off of two straight frustrating defeats in which they were either tied or leading in the final two minutes of play. The physical freshness particularly helps QB Tim Tebow, who can both run and pass at will against this defense, particularly with WR Andre Caldwell having returned to the practice fields, while a young defense gets the full benefit of the mini-camp that a bye week can provide.


Look for Tebow and the Florida offense to have no problems running downhill throughout in this one against a tired Kentucky defense that was on the field for 87 plays vs. L.S.U., and for the Gators to easily top a line that has been adjusted far too low – in the first two meetings between Urban Meyer and Brooks they were favored by -23 on this field two years ago and -26.5 at home LY, coasting to easy wins each time.

PICK: Auburn
Your pick will be graded at: 12 BoDog
REASON FOR PICK: 5* AUBURN over LSU

One of the major misconceptions about college football throughout the years is that highly-ranked teams bounce back off of losses with big efforts. That can indeed happen in the professional ranks, where players have had years of experience at dealing with adversity, but at this level there are hearts being broken for the first time, which can lead to a lowering of confidence instead of a raising of intensity. L.S.U. is just such a case this week, and there is tremendous line value to step in against Les Miles and his team here.


It has absolutely been a sin of omission for us to have not bucked L.S.U. more in SEC play this season; we used South Carolina as a 4* on this field a month ago, and then passed with Florida and Kentucky. That was our bad, but in a current 0-4 ATS slide we see just how over-rated the Tigers are. Those explosive showings vs. Mississippi State and Virginia Tech on national television to start the season earned them far too much respect from the betting public, despite the fact that there are serious issues. The most important is a passing game that not only lost JaMarcus Russell, Craig Davis and Dwayne Bowe to the NFL, but has also been without Early Doucet for most of this season, and in the last three conference games they have gone just 40-85 for 356 yards through the air. But there are some legitimate questions about the rating of that defense as well.


Yes, this defense is among the best in the nation, and Glenn Dorsey is on his way to a big career playing on Sunday’s. But here is where their first five opponents currently rate in the national total offense charts – Tulane (87th), South Carolina (88th), Middle Tennessee State (86th), Mississippi State (110th) and Virginia Tech (112th). And note that in that stretch they faced two teams that were using QB’s most of the way that are no longer starting; they did not have to deal with Middle Tennessee’s Dwight Dasher much, and when Steve Spurrier switched from Blake Mitchell to Chris Smelley the South Carolina offense took the game to the Tigers in the second half. The past two weeks they finally had to face teams that could legitimately attack, and Florida and Kentucky scored 51 points in regulation. In the loss at Lexington last week they did not get a single sack of Andre Woodson in 38 pass attmpts.


There was something else worth noting about the loss to Kentucky – L.S.U. was +2 in turnovers. When you are favored by -10, go +2 in turnovers, and lose the whole game, it is a sign that you are absolutely over-rated. And to be in this range against Auburn indicates that the ratings have not changed at all. To be favored by this much you must have superior talent to your opponent, but that case can not be made. Here are the final scores at the end of regulation the last three seasons between these programs -


AUBURN 7-3 at home

17-17 tie in Baton Rouge, with L.S.U. winning 20-17 in overtime

AUBURN 10-9 at home


Get the picture? Now an Auburn team that is back to full health again, and has arguably been the SEC’s best team over the past month, steps into a role in which Tommy Tuberville has been special – over the last four seasons his Tigers are 6-0 ATS as conference underdogs, with five outright wins and that overtime defeat vs. L.S.U. on this field. An offense that can spread the field and control the ball and a stifling defense are prime ingredients for a dog to hang around, and note that in winning outright on the road at Florida and Arkansas in the past three weeks the Tigers were able to get off 39 more offensive plays from scrimmage through that combination.


This is anybody’s game to win outright. Instead of L.S.U. in a bounce-back mode we anticipate a team that will be physically drained off of those back-to-back epics vs. Florida and Kentucky, and the home team is hard-pressed to merely win here, much less get any kind of margin.

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selective

4 units each, wyoming, over the total USC/ND game, over the total Iowa/purdue game.
notes: wyoming game is only a play at 3 or better

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Larry Ness' LEGEND Play-CFB (2-0 in FB '07 and 7-1 in CFB regular season since '05!)-Saturday

My LEGEND Play is on UNLV at 9:00 ET. Things have fallen apart at Colo St fairly quickly for Sonny Lubick. Lubick built an impressive resume at Fort Collins (eight bowls in a 10-year span from 1994-2003) but the Rams have gone 4-7, 6-6 (crushed 51-30 by Navy in the Poinsettia bowl) and 4-8 the last three years. Now in his 15th season, Lubick's Rams are 0-6 SU (1-5 ATS) and own the nation's second-longest active losing streak, at 13 in a row (2-11 ATS)! He's hinted this may be his last year and that may be a good idea. CSU has won 10 of its last 11 meetings with UNLV, including the last six in Las Vegas but the three most recent meetings in Sin City, have been decided by a total of just seven points (with MUCH superior CSU teams!). QB Hanie really misses injured WR Sperry and it doesn't help that he's getting sacked almost three times per game. The defense (formerly a Lubick staple) is ATROCIOUS, allowing 32.7 PPG and 211.5 RPG on the ground (109th). UNLV is MUCH better this year, although the team is off three straight losses. HC Mike Sanford has not lived up to expectations so far, winning two games in each of his first two seasons and enters this game 2-5. However, the Rebels outplayed Wisconsin at this site earlier TY (lost 20-13 as 25 1/2-point 'dogs!), crushed Utah 27-0 (as eight-point dogs) and led BYU 7-6 last Saturday night at the half, before losing (but covering), 24-14! RB Summers (568 YR / 4.7 YPC) should have a "field day" vs CSU and QB Travis Dixon has done a reasonable job at QB, after starter Hinds was lost before the season began to an injury. CSU's last win came vs UNLV (28-7 LY in Fort Collins), a fact the Rebels are well aware of. Sanford got his team to play its best game of the season here vs Utah (where he was the OC before taking the UNLV job) and I see the Rebels being "sky high" for this one, too. UNLV's defensive front seven has matched up well at this venue vs Wisconsin, Utah and BYU. Why not vs the "free-falling" Rams? No reason! LEGEND Play on UNLV.

Good Luck...Larry

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doc's sports college..confirmed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5* Tenn - PK Game of the Week
4* Michigan -2.5
4* Michigan st +17.5
4* Wisc. -23.5
4* Wake Forest -3
4* Clemson -16.5
4* UNLV -2.5

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Scott Spreitzer's CFB Oddsmaker Blowout GAME OF THE YEAR! (Perfect 4-0, 100%!)
We're entering my favorite time of the college football season. It's the time of year when college football's "dead teams" begin to rear their heads. These are teams that are in a complete and utter flat-spot, and have all but packed it in for the season. Colorado State fits the bill. HC Sonny Lubick looks as though he's at the end of the line and the team has dropped 13 straight games. Making matters even worse is that they're now back on the road after dropping back-to-back games as a home favorite. They'll head to Sin City on a 6-16 road spread run, including 0-2 this year. UNLV should find the going much easier this week against Lubick's worst defense since arriving in Fort Collins 15 years ago. The Rams have allowed 24 or more points in 11 of their last 13 games, including all six games this season. And, they're giving up almost five yards per carry and well over 200 yards per game on the ground. UNLV, as mentioned a couple of weeks ago at this site, is improving. They're a season away from challenging for the top spot in the MWC, but they've already passed by this horrible CSU squad. QB Travis Dixon is said to be healthy and ready to start. But I expect to see both QBs, with Omar Clayton in the game when UNLV wants to test CSU with deep routes. Running right at the weak CSU run defense will be arguably the best power-runner in the conference in RB Frank Summers. Defensively, the Rebels own the fastest unit in the league. They should have a field day against Rams' QB Caleb Hanie, who's getting sacked about three times per game on average and has very little talent to work with. As a long-time season-ticket holder to Rebel football (yes, I'm the one), I've learned when to "buy" and when to "sell" with this program. I've won with UNLV on these pages against Wiscy, BYU, and Utah, and won going against them with Hawaii & Nevada. It's time to "buy" this week. I expect at least a two TD win by UNLV.

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Ferringo

5-Unit Play. Take #393 New Mexico (-8) over San Diego State (8:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
Note: This is our Gridiron Game of the Week.

New Mexico has won six straight in this series and are a spectacular 11-1 ATS, including eight straight in San Diego. Their margin of victory over the past five years is 17.6 points per game. New Mexico has covered in eight straight and is by far and away the better team here. They have one of the top defenses in the Mountain West, while SDSU is either last or second to last in every major offensive category. I think the Lobos lock down on the Aztecs and win in a rout.

3-Unit Play. Take #364 Central Florida (-2.5) over Tulsa (4 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
Central Florida is coming off an embarrassing loss to South Florida, but this team has had a different attitude about it this week. They’ve been working in full pads all week and I think they’re out to show that last week was a fluke. This is Tulsa’s first game on grass this year and I think that their offense will be slowed just enough for the UCF defense to control this game.

3-Unit Play. Take Tennessee (Pk) over Alabama (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
I have been saying all year that 'Bama is overrated and that's coming to a head right here. Phil Fulmer is coaching for his job every week, and I simply do not trust the Crimson Tide to come up with a big win. I'll take the better quarterback and the better rush defense against a team that's struggled with Houston and Mississippi.

3-Unit Play. Take #334 Colorado (+4) over Kansas (5:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
I’ll take a home dog here. The books are trying to do anything they can to slow down Kansas, which is 5-0 ATS. The home team has won eight of 10 in this series and the Jayhawks have dropped their last five in Boulder by an average of 23 points.

3-Unit Play. Take #353 Miami (+5.5) over Florida State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
The underdog is 6-2 ATS in this series over the past eight years and I think that six points is about three too many here. Over the past three seasons there has been an average of 22 total points scored in this game as defense dominates. Underdogs in conference play are 15-5 in the ACC this season and Miami is 6-3 ATS in this series (3-1 ATS at FSU). We’ll take the points and look for an outright Hurricanes win.

3-Unit Play. Take #307 Louisville (-3) over Connecticut (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
Louisville is in a prime letdown spot after their win over Cincinnati last week, but I’m still more willing to back their talent over Connecticut. The Huskies haven’t played anyone near the caliber of the Cardinals and I think their 5-1 record is somewhat of an aberration. Louisville is 3-0 against the Huskies with a 20-point average margin of victory.

3-Unit Play. Take #331 Ball State (-1) over Western Michigan (2 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
We are playing against an awkward line movement here. I like WMU, but Ball State has been a tough out for the entire season. They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and I think that Nate Davis will take advantage of a banged up Broncos defense. This will be a close game to the end, but I think that Ball State has the moxie to pull this one out.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #310 Syracuse (-3.5) over Buffalo (4 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
Syracuse is pathetic. I’ll be the first to admit it. But I don’t think that they are this bad where they are going to lose at home to the upstart Bulls. The Orange are 1-6 on the year, but they have played an absolutely brutal schedule. Buffalo got bombed by Baylor earlier this year and is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight against the Big East. Syracuse is 9-1-1 ATS against the MAC and are 9-3 ATS as a home favorite. Again, the Orange aren’t going bowling but they also aren’t going to lose to Buffalo.

2-Unit Play. Take #388 Illinois (+3) over Michigan (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
I’ll take the speed, the home team, and the points in this one. I think that Mike Hart will play, but if he’s limited or if he doesn’t play the whole game I think that’s a huge blow to the Wolverines. The home team is 4-1 ATS in this series and Michigan is 12-25-1 ATS as a road favorite.

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ace-ace / allan eastman

4 c mich +16
4 nd +18
3 miss st +24'
3 nev -7

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marc lawrence revenge gow colorado

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DR. BOB: 4 OHIO STATE, 3 MEMPHIS, ILLINOIS, 2 FRESNO STATE, TROY STATE

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SUPER POWER "7" = 2 units = #393 NEW MEXICO @ - 8 1/2

TOP PLAY = 1 1/2 units = #351 & #352 (USC vs. Notre Dame) UNDER @ 45

REGULAR PLAYS = 1 unit =

#348 MISSOURI @ - 3 1/2
#373 FLORIDA @ - 6 1/2
#334 COLORADO @ + 4
#391 AUBURN @ + 10

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POINTWISE PHONE SERVICE
October 20, 2007
COLLEGE:
4 Stars: Colorado, Texas
3 Stars: Tennessee, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Auburn,
Miami-Florida, East Carolina
2 Stars: South Carolina, Arkansas, Florida
NFL:
4 Stars: No 4 Star Plays This Week
3 Stars: Buffalo, Jacksonville, Washington, New England
2 Stars: Denver, Kansas City
Remember: 4 Star Plays are our highest rated plays, and all releases are
given in Order of Preference.

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Brad Diamond Sports

Saturday, October 20th
Fighting Irish Upset Southern California in South Bend on Saturday!

Fan Appreciation Revenge Game of the Week

Play on: Notre Dame (352) plus over Southern California @ 3:30 EST
Don’t laugh! The Irish are primed to erase their long-time nemesis from the thoughts of College Football fans for 2007. Another major fall by the Trojans will eliminate them from a glitter bowl at the end of the season. HC Charlie Weis of the Irish has just that in his “to do” list come this Saturday in South Bend. Yes, the Irish recruits on the field are faltering without the southern speed that matriculates to Florida schools and the west coast schools. Weis has a contract through 2015 and some in the administration are starting to worry. But, again the recruiting guru’s nationally have listed the Irish as the top class committed for 2008. As an offensive mind, Weis has no peers, but then again the QB position is not manned by Tom Brady. On the field Saturday, we obviously see a speed alert for the Trojans skill set, but the quarterback position has been inconsistent this season and the running attack managed under 100 yards in that upset loss to Stanford. Last week in a 20-13 win over Arizona, QB Mark Sanchez threw 2 critical interceptions that forced the Trojans to keep the ball on the ground to avoid another upset. USC scored 10 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to survive at home. Last week Note Dame played their hearts out against the other Catholic School from back east only to lose 27-14. One Irish touchdown came on an interception return, while ND ran for under 25 yards against the stout Eagles defensive front seven. Some way Uncle Charlie needs to resurrect a running game that is hurt by a lack of speed, but too, an offensive line that commits critical physical mistakes in “pulling” situations. On paper this does not look good talent wise and the trends and angles all say Southern California. Still, I’ll take a ticket for an outright upset by Notre Dame in a game they finally catch all the breaks.
…NOTRE DAME 22 USC 21

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Stephen Nover

LSU / 391 Auburn Under 42.5

Analysis:
This game has been bet down in the marketplace and rightfully so. These are two outstanding defenses.
Despite giving up 375 yards and 27 points in regulation to Kentucky last week in an overtime loss, LSU still rates No. 2 overall in defense. The Tigers should be especially fired-up defensively after last week's disappointing performance.
The Tigers have four potential first-round draft choices on defense with cornerback Chevis Jackson, linebacker Keith Rivers, linebacker Ali Highsmith and tackle Glenn Dorsey, who could be the first player chosen in the 2008 draft.
Auburn isn't too shabby either on defense ranking ninth. The Tigers held Arkansas' star running back Darren McFadden to a season-low 43 yards rushing during a 9-7 victory last Saturday. McFadden's fewest yards rushing up to that game this season was 122.
LSU mainly relies on its ground attack. Its quarterback, Matt Flynn, is inconsistent. He's averaged just 137 yards passing the past two games.
Auburn has gone 'under' the total 73 percent of the time during the past 26 times it has been an underdog. These two teams scored only a combined 10 points when they met last year.
They scored a combined 37 points when they squared off two years ago and just 19 when they met in 2004. In fact, they haven't exceeded 42 points during the past six years. You'd have to go back to 2000 to find the last time they scored more than the posted total here

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Lenny Del Genio

West Virginia -24.0 (-110)vs 313 Mississippi St

Analysis:
When West Virginia lost at South Florida 21-13 (September 28), many thought it all but 'killed' the Mountaineers hopes of contending for the national title. However, a rash of upsets of the last two weeks finds West Virginia back in BCS title contention, as the Mountaineers placed 9th in the first BC standings released last Sunday. After this home game with Miss St, West Va plays at Rutgers, home to Louisville and at Cincinnati in a three-game stretch. A three-game sweep would get the Mountaineers right back "in the thick of things." However, first things first. West Va should have little trouble with the Bulldogs, who since a 19-14 win at Auburn (September 15), have lost 38-21 to South Carolina and 33-21 to Tennessee, allowing 402 and 470 yards, respectively. The Bulldogs' D will have major problems with a West Va offense which ranks No. 2 in rushing at 311.1 ypg (6.2 ypc). Overall, West Va is averaging 503.8 ypg and 42.8 ppg. What has gone unnoticed is the West Va defense. The Mountaineers are fifth in total D at 261.5 ypg (allowing just 96.8 ypg on the ground at 2.8 ypc) and 16th in scoring D (17.2 ppg). Miss St has a freshman QB in Carroll and while RB Dixon is solid (694 YR / 4.2 ypc with 10 TDs), the overall running games averages just 3.9 ypc (157.6 ypg). Lay the points with West Va.

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Sat, 10/20/07 - 12:30 PMEthan Law | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
323 Vanderbilt 14.0 (-110) Bodog vs 324 South Carolina
Analysis:
UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH!

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ALSO A 1/2* UNIT MONEY LINE RECOMMENDATION!
----------------------------------
VANDERBILT (3-3) at S CAROLINA (6-1)

Is anybody else as shocked as I am to see South Carolina at No. 6 in the national rankings?On paper,South Carolina (6-1 SU & 4-2 ATS) possess a balanced averaging 28 points, 127 rushing and 221 passing per game, while their defense (on paper) is giving up just 16 points per game. Now the reason I am stressing the term on paper is because if you really take a look at and follow this South Carolina team they really dont possess any of the criteria to justify them being the number 6th ranked team in the country. We have all followed their quarterback controversy throughout the season as their senior quarterback Blake Mitchell was been benched and freshman Chris Smelley (9 touchdowns, 4 interceptions) stepped in. So Smelly is going to play this weekend right? Not so fast, as South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier has been hinting all week that Blake Mitchell might see time, or even get the start, after a good week of practice. Really? Doesnt coach Spurrior know that already the middle of the season and we may have yet another quarterback controversy on our hands again in South Carolina. Wait it actually gets worse. According the South Carolina Gazette (a local paper) Spurrier held open competitions for starting offensive line spots! Are you kidding me? Even the talented offensive lines are good because of the fact that they play well together and gel. To change things up at this point, and with the possibility of starting a new quarterback (again) is suicide for a club that is already no offensive juggernaut to say the least. Despite (on paper) averaging 28 points per game this season, those numbers a bit a bit inflated against the like of Louisiana-Lafayette where they scored 28, South Carolina State where they scored 38 and to weak defenses of Mississippi State 38 and Kentucky 38. As stated above, this is a defense that is giving up just 16 points per game! Sounds impressive but again look at their competition. They held a very vanilla North Carolina offense to just 15, Louisiana-Lafayette to only 14, South Carolina State to 3 and Georgia (who couldnt score on anybody in the beginning of the season to only 12. The problem with this defense more or less boils down to one very large concern and that is the fact that they are allowing a staggering 190 yards per game o the ground. Indeed, every team has run for over 125 yards on them including South Carolina State! The defense is also without injured middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley, who damaged a knee ligament against LSU and had season-ending surgery. Brinkley was the second starter South Carolina's defense has lost for the year. Defensive lineman Nathan Pepper injured his left knee in the opener.

Meanwhile, expectations were high for the smart kids this season as they brought back 10 offensive starters and a defensive unit that brought back eight starters. But so far, Vanderbilt (3-3 SU& 2-2 ATS) is just 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS in the SEC where they get beat by a 24-17 average. The smart kids lost by two touchdowns at home to Alabama and by 28 on the road at Auburn, before essentially giving their last game away in the fourth quarter against Georgia. So what we have here, is a similar situation to the Clemson game where we have one team (Vanderbilt) that is coming off two losses and another team (South Carolina) that has won three straight. The lines maker made a big mistake in adjusting the line to a two touchdown mark and it looks at thought the public is biting as early betting indicators are showing public support on South Carolina at around 80%. But be advisedwe are smarter then that and we are not going to bite here. There is a virtual cornucopia of reason why we will be on Vanderbilt this Saturday. First, as stated above, we have analyzed the (on paper) stats of both of these teams and actually Vanderbilt is about on par with South Carolina. Vanderbilt has an excellent pass rush and their pass defense ranks third in the country. Meanwhile, the South Carolina offense (ranks 88th in the nation in total offense) and they should struggle to put points up against a solid Vanderbilt defense (that ranks 22nd in the country in total defense). Were getting 14 points to boot? Secondly, this is also a Gamecock squad that is been one of the most inconsistent teams in the nation. The reason why thats a factor is that because South Carolina is in a clear look-ahead situational setting with trips to Tennessee (Spurriers arch rival) and Arkansas on deck. As such, I would be surprised in the least if they are looking ahead to those match-ups and we get a flat effort from them this weekend. Third, this is not an elite South Carolina offensive unit as they currently rank just 9th in the SEC in total offense. Much of those problem have been the play of their offensive line that has allowed 17 sacks this season (gain he actually changing his personal this weekend) so it quit possible Vanderbilt could have a fantastic day on Saturday. When Vanderbilt is on offense, rest assured they WILL MOVE the ball on the ground against this South Carolina defense that is giving up on average close to 200 yards per game (on 4.4 yards per carry). Remember the chart I gave you last weekend?

Data from 1992 to present
Rushing Yards ATS Success underdog
Less than 50 31%
50 to 99 39%
100 to 149 50%
150 to 199 62%
200 to 249 71%
250 to 299 78%
300 to 399 84%
400 or more 88%

From the above its crystal clear that underdogs who rush for at least 200 yards covers the Vegas line roughly 70% of the time! Vanderbilt has a really good chance of controlling the time of possession in this one and easily has the best chance of getting an upset on Saturday. Vanderbilt also really needs this game to go bowling this season adding to the motivational considerations. If all of this is not enough, take solace in the fact that this will only be Vanderbilts second road contest this season, and despite the setback in Auburn, Vanderbilt has covered in 11 of 13 road games the past three years. Take those points but you will not need them.

Verdict: So Carolina 17, Vanderbilt 21
PLAY 2* UNITS ON VANDERBILT +14;
PLAY 1/2* UNIT ON VANDERBILT +$450

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Re: Saturday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports:

Kelso Sat

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

15 units Cincinnati -9.5 @ Pitt
10 units Texas -24.5 @ Baylor
5 units Wake Forest -3 @ Navy
4 units Flor Atl -7 @ ULLaf
3 units Arizona -12.5 v. Stanford

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Re: Saturday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports:

John Ryan

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Ohio State - Not much respect given to Ohio State in commentary made after the BCS report and this should keep the Buckeyes fired up on all cylinders. AiS shows a 73% probability that OSU will win this game by 17 or more points. Also, a 90% probability that they will score 28 plus points and this puts the Buckeyes into an awesome role knowing that they are 28-3 ATS when they score 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 36-8 ATS since 1992 for an incredible 82%. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Take Ohio State.

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