Thursday Service Picks and Free Consensus Report:

Re: Thursday Service Picks and Free Consensus Report:

Greg Shaker

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double-dime bet104 Wake Forest / 103 Florida St. Under 43.5 BetUS
Analysis: NCAAF: Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons - Under 43.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES
Game Date: 10/11/2007
Note: If you like to follow the trends, you already know that Florida State is UNDER is 22-10 the last 32 times they have played on the road and Wake Forest is 7-1 UNDER the last 8 times Wake Forest has played on their home field. While I usually do not pay attention to trends when handicapping anything, these two do make sense and even before I check to see if they went along with my thoughts on this contest, I knew that they would point this way. That does give me a warm and fuzzy feeling and there are plenty of reasons to believe that Thursday's game will go beneath this posted number. Certainly early bettors believe the same with this on opening at the 44 mark and zipping downward already. We might have an added bonus with a report out of Tallahassee with a report that Florida State quarterback Xavier Lee did not attend practice on Tuesday - two days prior to his first scheduled start. Lee's absence from FSU's final preparation for a key ACC Atlantic Division showdown could affect his status for the nationally televised game. Bowden has stated that Lee had a meeting with a teacher that began at about 2 p.m. and that meeting lasted longer than usual.It has been FSU's usual policy under Bowden to not allow a player to start a Saturday game if he did not participate in Thursday's practice and we will know sometime today what will be the case. However, missing the last day is not what you want from your starting QB, especially when it is his first start of the season, and also on a short week of preparation as this one is. We have a great combination in this game of two very good defenses and both playing in the best situation with Wake's best D efforts coming at home and FSU's best efforts being away from Florida. Combined these D's have allowed just 33 points and the 2 Florida State Road affairs numerating the same amount, 32 points. We can certainly remember last year's contest with Wake shutting out the Seminoles in a 30-0 romp. FSU's offense remains very iffy and the reason why they have turned the reins over to Lee for this contest. What they have done and probably will do again is make it very difficult for the Demon Deacons to run the ball, which is a great part of their offensive game. The Sems have allowed just 82 yards per outing this year via the run and that has put them in very good situations on second and third downs, making it very difficult for the opposition to have sustained drives. Both Colorado and Alabama got a big taste of that, scoring just 10 and 14 points verses this crew and averaging just 2.7 and 3.3 yards per rush. Wake has done pretty much the same thing against their foes, with just 3 yards per carry in all of their games. Being able to run the ball is paramount for any offensive team and I don't see a lot of that happening Thursday Nite. Therefore I will play UNDER and hope that we do not see any Special Team or defensive scores..

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Re: Thursday Service Picks and Free Consensus Report:

Ethan Law

NLCS game of the month


Dime bet952 ARI (-125)Bodog vs 951 COL
Analysis: ARI: RHP Brandon Webb (0-0 0.002 ERA) vs. COL: LHP Jeff Francis (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Man oh man is this ever a tough game to handicap, but having won my one and only game of the year on this exact pitching match-up I think I can bet this one with some confidence. Yes Colorado comes into this series winner of 17 of their last 18 games! Guess what their one defeat was? Thats right a home loss against Brandon Webb. Webbs 3.01 ERA seems impressive on its own, but he been even more impressive in this exact setting as his ERA in night games decreases to a paltry 2.90. Contrast that with the ERA of Colorados Jeff Francis whos ERA actually increases in night settings to 4.92 almost 2 runs higher then his counterpart. For all of the accolades Francis has received this season, it should be noted that right-handed batters are still batting a whopping .289 against the left-hander, which is terrible news when you consider that this particular Arizona team has decimated left-handed pitching this season as they are 28-17 +$1,195 in all setting with an offense averaging an impressive 5 runs per game. Even more impressive has been their mark in home/night games against left-handed pitching where they are 14-7 +$570 averaging a staggering 5.3 runs per game! While Im not ignoring the fact that Colorado won 17 of 18 games, 7 of those wins were against a disinterested Dodgers team that was 1-9 over the exact same span.

Verdict: Colorado 2, Arizona 6
PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARIZONA -$125

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Re: Thursday Service Picks and Free Consensus Report:

Stan Sharp | CFB Total

double-dime bet104 Wake Forest / 103 Florida St. Under 43.5 BetUS
Analysis: Stan's Top Totals Bettor has made a Big Play on tonight's Florida St/Wake Forest game. He believes that Wake Forest will have trouble moving the Ball tonight against this Florida St. defense. Both teams have good rush defenses as Florida St gives up just 82 yds per game while Wake Forest gives up just 111 yds per game. This one has all the makings of a defensive war. TAKE FLORIDA ST/WAKE FOREST UNDER and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

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Re: Thursday Service Picks and Free Consensus Report:

Kelso Sturgeon

15 units Wake Forest +5.5

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Re: Thursday Service Picks and Free Consensus Report:

Chuck Franklin:

1000♦ FLORIDA STATE

The Seminoles are ranked in the top 25 again, and have revenge on the minds in a big way heading into this match-up with the Demon Deacons of Wake Forest. After last year’s 30-0 loss in Tallahassee to Wake, Bobby Bowden is looking to return the favor tonight in Winston-Salem. Besides the revenge factor, the Seminoles are on a roll, winning each of their last four games and covering both of the last two road contests. I know FSU’s offense is not exactly stellar, but I still expect an easy cover in this game because their stingy defense won’t let the score get close. Side with the payback minded Seminoles in this one.

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Scott Spreitzer's NLCS Game of the Year! (Thursday) *4-1, 80%!
My NLCS GOY is a play on the D'backs with Webb facing Francis. First of all, Arizona is at their best when facing lefties. The Diamondbacks owe their playoff lives to their results against southpaws, going 30-17 this season overall, while averaging 5.42 RPG at home. Tonight, they'll face Jeff Francis who has not pitched well in night games in his entire career. Check out this year's numbers for example: In nine day outings, Francis owns a perfect 8-0 record with a 2.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and .245 BAA. In 25 night starts, the lefty is just 9-9, sporting a hefty 4.92 ERA, with a 1.47 WHIP, and an unhealthy .291 BAA. Francis' night-game ERA is over 5.00 in 74 lifetime starts. I truly believe Francis will be a sitting duck for an Arizona lineup that, as mentioned above, pounds lefties. The D'backs will counter with inning-eater Brandon Webb who was tremendous in his postseason start against the Cubs. The right-hander is the opposite of Francis. He's at his best in evening outings. Webb is 16-7 in 28 night starts this season with a 2.90 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Webb has made 23 starts since June, allowing just 47 earned runs and 180 base runners in 159 1/3 IP, for a strong 2.66 ERA and 1.13 WHIP! Arizona is 11-3 in Webb's last 14 starts overall. In his 17 home starts this season, the Diamondbacks have allowed an average of only 3.52 RPG. And, the only blemish in Colorado's last 18 outings came against Brandon Webb. He held the red-hot Rockies to two earned runs in seven innings in Arizona's 4-2 win on 9/28. It also must be noted that Arizona closer Jose Valverde saved seven opportunities against the Rockies in 2007. It's a fantastic spot for the home team in game one and we'll lay the price. In game one, Arizona is my NLCS Game of the Year! Thanks! GL! Scott.

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Re: Thursday Service Picks and Free Consensus Report:

Northcoast

Florida St -5 1/2

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Re: Thursday Service Picks and Free Consensus Report:

Dr Bob

6 Best Bets and 3 Strong Opinions.

Rotation #144 Houston (-21) 4-Stars at -21 or less, 3-Stars from -21 1/2 to -24, 2-Stars up to -25.
Rotation #186 Oklahoma (-10 1/2) 4-Stars at -11 or less, 3-Stars from -11 1/2 to -13, 2- Stars at -13 1/2 or -14.
Rotation #184 Texas Tech (-8 1/2) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars at -10 1/2 or -11.
Rotation #130 Buffalo (-3) 3-Stars at -3 (-115 odds or better) or less, 2-Stars from -3 1/2 to -5 points.
Rotation #153 Illinois (-3 1/2) 2-Stars at -4 or less.
Rotation #165 Air Force (+3 1/2) 2-Stars at +3 or more, 3-Stars at +4 or more.

Strong Opinion - Rotation #106 San Jose St (+18 1/2) Strong Opinion at +17 or more, 2- Star Best Bet at +20 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #140 Utah (-14) Strong Opinion at -14 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #194 UTEP (-3) Strong Opinion at -3 or less, 2-Stars at -1 or better.


4 Star Selection
****HOUSTON (-21.0) 47 Rice 14
12:30 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
Don’t be fooled by Rice’s win at Southern Miss as a 20 ½ point dog. The Owls were fortunate to have Southern Miss quarterback Martevious Young get injured on the first series, which forced the Eagles to play with injured backup Stephen Reaves, who could barely throw the ball more than 10 yards and ended up tossing 4 interceptions. Rice was still out-gained 240 yards to 422 yards and the fact that they only won that game by 2 points despite being +5 in turnovers is a sign of just how bad the Owls are. For the season Rice has averaged a pathetic 4.1 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, and the Owls have given up 41 points per game on 6.5 yppl (against teams that would average only 5.2 yppl against an average defense). Houston’s very good offense (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) should score at will against the Owls regardless of which quarterback is on the field (Keenum and Joseph have split time but Joseph is questionable) and running back Anthony Alridge will run wild against a Rice defensive front that has surrendered 6.3 yards per rushing play the last 2 games against the two better than average running teams that they’ve faced (Texas and Southern Miss). Houston has a better than average defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team), so Rice isn’t likely to score many points with their pathetic attack unless they are blessed with 7 turnovers again this week (not likely). My math model projects a 587 yards to 268 yards edge for Houston in this game and the Cougars will be looking to take out their frustrations after losing their last two games to East Carolina and Alabama by a combined 8 points. Coach Art Briles is 6-1-1 ATS when facing a losing team after a loss in his 5 seasons at Houston, including a 24 point win at Tulane earlier this season (Rice is worse than Tulane and this game is at home). I’ll take Houston in a 4-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less, for 3-Stars from -21 ½ to -24 points and for 2-Stars at -24 ½ or -25 points.

4 Star Selection
****OKLAHOMA (-10.5) 44 Missouri 20
03:30 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
Missouri certainly played well last week in whipping Nebraska, but the Tigers aren’t even close to being at the level of the Sooners. Missouri is a good offensive team, averaging 6.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team, but that unit is not quite as good as an Oklahoma defense that rates at 1.2 yppl better than average (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team). The real mismatch in this game is when the Sooners have the ball. Oklahoma has averaged 7.4 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack) and the Sooners are equally good running and throwing the football (1.0 yprp better than average and 2.6 yppp better than average). Missouri’s defense played very well last week in holding Nebraska’s good offense to just 4.4 yppl, but the Tigers allowed an average of 485 total yards at 6.3 yppl to the two other better than average offensive teams that they had faced (Illinois and Mississippi) and they’ve allowed 5.4 yppl for the season to teams that would average only 5.2 yppl against an average defense. Missouri’s mediocre defense will not be able to stop the potent Oklahoma attack in Norman, where the Sooners are 15-3 ATS hosting conference foes when not favored by more than 21 points under coach Stoops. Oklahoma also applies to a solid 149-83-3 ATS indicator and my math model favors Oklahoma by 23 points. I’ll take Oklahoma in a 4- Star Best Bet at -11 points or less, for 3-Stars from -11 ½ to -13 points and for 2-Stars at -13 ½ and -14 points.

3 Star Selection
**BUFFALO (-3.5) 33 Toledo 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
Buffalo is a much improved team in coach Turner Gill’s second season and the Bulls have played well against other below average teams, including a 31-10 home upset win last week over Ohio. Aside from that win, the Bulls beat up on Temple 42-7 and out-gained Baylor 5.0 yards per play to 4.7 yppl while losing only because of turnovers (-3 in TO margin). Overall, Buffalo rates at 0.7 yppl worse than average on offense (after taking out their garbage yardage against Penn State after falling behind 3-31) and just 0.2 yppl worse than average on defense (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). Buffalo’s offense rates and edge over a bad Toledo defense that’s surrendered 6.2 yppl in 6 games against teams that would average only 5.3 yppl against an average team. The Bulls also have a slight edge when Toledo as the ball as the Rockets are 0.3 yppl worse than average (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl). Toledo took the red shirt off of freshman D.J. Lenehan last week with the top 2 quarterbacks out with injury and Lenehan posted good numbers, going 19 of 23 passing for 226 yards (although with 2 picks). However, the 9.0 yards per pass play and the 6.5 yppl that Toledo produced with Lenehan at quarterback is not that impressive when you consider that their opponent, Liberty, would allow 9.8 yppp and 6.9 yppl on the road against an average Division 1A team – so the Rockets were 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively last week (a bit worse than they are for the season). Toledo barely beat a horrible Liberty team at home, having to come from behind to win 35-34, and that game sets up the Rockets in a negative 4-32 subset of a 46-100-2 ATS situation while Buffalo’s win last week sets the Bulls up in a 57-18-1 ATS home momentum situation that is 19-1 ATS if the opponent has a losing record. Toledo is also much better at home than they are on the road historically, as the Rockets are just 12-23-3 ATS on the road (0-2 ATS this season) and 22-11 ATS at home under coach Tom Amstutz. My math model favors Buffalo by 4 ½ points, so the line is more than fair, and I’ll take Buffalo in a 2-Star Best Bet at - 5 or less and for 3-Stars at -3 (at -115 odds or less).

3 Star Selection
***TEXAS TECH (-8.5) 44 Texas A&M 26
12:30 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
Texas Tech’s “Air Raid” offense matches up very well against a Texas A&M defense that has been horrible defending the pass this season, allowing 6.9 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppp against an average defensive team. The Aggies have faced 3 average or better passing teams and been torched through the air each time, giving up 7.8 yppp at home to an average Fresno State pass attack, allowing 9.4 yppp to Miami-Florida (Wright would average 7.8 yppp at home against an average defense) and giving up 8.8 yppp last week to an Oklahoma State aerial attack that would average 6.4 yppp on the road against an average team. Texas Tech throws the ball close to 60 times per game and averages 8.6 yppp (against teams that would allow 7.3 yppp), so the Red Raiders should have no trouble scoring in this game. Texas A&M will have a tough time keeping up with an attack that is barely better than average (5.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) going up against a decent Tech stop unit that is 0.1 yppl better than average. My math model takes match-ups into account and favors Texas Tech by 14 ½ points in this game. Aside from the line value the Red Raiders also tend to play better at home, where they are 20-9-1 ATS as a favorite of 27 points or less, including 17-5 ATS when not facing an unbeaten team. Tech also applies to a solid 145-69-7 ATS home momentum situation and I’ll take Texas Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at - 10 points or less and for 2-Stars at -10 ½ or -11 points.

2 Star Selection
**Illinois (-3.5) 26 IOWA 14
09:00 AM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
The only reason that Illinois is not favored by more than 3 ½ points in this game is the names on the jerseys. The line on this game would be about 7 points if Illinois didn’t have a history of losing and Iowa didn’t have a history of winning. The only thing that Iowa has going for them this season is their defense, which has allowed just 4.5 yards per play to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team. However, that defense has not been as good without leading tackler LB Mike Klinkenborg and starting S Devan Moylan the last two games, as the Hawkeyes allowed 5.7 yppl and 65 points in games against mediocre offensive teams Indiana and Penn State the last two weeks without Klinkenborg and Moylan, who are both listed as doubtful for this game. Illinois has been 0.5 yppl better than average offensively and their outstanding rushing attack (6.4 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) should have success against a Hawkeyes’ defensive front that allowed Penn State to run for 271 yards at 5.7 yprp last week. The real advantage for Illinois is when Iowa has the ball, as the Hawkeyes’ pedestrian attack (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) won’t be able to move the ball consistently against a solid Illini stop unit that has been 0.4 yppl better than average. Illinois also has an edge in special teams and my math model favors the Illini by 8 points in this game. The reason for the play is a very strong 65- 15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that favors Illinois and I’m not fearful of going against a free-falling Iowa program that has lost 8 consecutive Big 10 games. I’ll take Illinois in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.

2 Star Selection
**Air Force 28 COLORADO ST. (-3.5) 24
02:30 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
Colorado State has lost 12 consecutive games and the Rams are favored over a 4-2 Air Force squad with wins over Utah and TCU. In reality Colorado State really isn’t that bad of a team, rating at just 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively and 0.1 yppl better than average on defense, but quarterback Caleb Haney continues to throw too many interceptions (8 in 5 games this season and 27 pick in 665 career passes (4.1%)). Air Force is 0.3 yppl better than average offensively and their option based attack should work well running against a soft Rams’ defensive front that has allowed 5.7 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would average 5.0 yprp against an average defensive team). Air Force is also solid on defense (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl) so the Falcons have a slightly edge over Colorado State’s attack. My math model favors Air Force by 1 point and the Falcons apply to a 65-15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I’ll take Air Force in a 3-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 2-Stars at +3 ½ or +3 points.

Friday Strong Opinion
SAN JOSE ST. 26 Hawaii (-18.5) 39
05:00 PM Pacific, 12-Oct-07
San Jose State started the season with 4 road games in 4 weeks and the first 3 resulted in losses by a combined score of 17-116 at Arizona State, Kansas State, and Stanford. The Spartans have a bit of their swagger back after beating 3 bad teams the last 3 weeks and I think they’re capable of competing with Hawaii today on their home turf – where they are 8-1 straight up and 6-1 ATS since last season with their only loss being a 3 point decision as a 13 point dog to a Boise State team that ended last season unbeaten. San Jose State doesn’t have a rushing attack without star Yonus Davis (just 3.0 yards per rushing play) but veteran quarterback Adam Tafralis has adjusted to his new receiving corps and he’s now averaging 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback). Hawaii’s defense has been average so far, allowing 4.3 yppl to a schedule of bad offensive teams that would combine to average just 4.3 yppl against an average defense, but San Jose State will provide the first better than average pass offense and I think the Spartans will move the ball pretty well through the air in this game. Hawaii will, of course, move the ball through the air with Colt Brennan and company averaging 7.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl, but Brennan has missed time in recent weeks with a badly sprained ankle and he was pulled last week in a non-covering win over Utah State. Brennan will be throwing against a good secondary that makes up for their mediocre yards per pass play allowed average by taking a lot of risks that payoff in interceptions. All-American CB Dwight Lowry and fellow CB Chris Owens combined for 13 interceptions last season (Lowry had 9) and they already have 5 between them this season while the team has picked off 11 passes in 6 games. The line is about right in this game but the San Jose State has been much better at home and Hawaii applies to a negative 7-31-1 ATS subset of a 94-171-10 ATS road favorite letdown situation and I’ll consider San Jose State a Strong Opinion at +17 points or more and I’d make San Jose State a 2-Star Best Bet at +20 points or more.

Strong Opinion
UTAH (-14.0) 37 San Diego St. 18
12:00 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
San Diego State is coming an upset win as a double-digit dog at Colorado State while Utah is coming off an upset as a double-digit win at Louisville. San Diego State applies to a negative 52-117-2 ATS letdown situation while Utah’s upset sets them up in a 50-18 ATS home favorite momentum situation that just won last week with Auburn and Indiana. Utah quarterback Brian Johnson is starting to come around after missing a few weeks with a separated shoulder he suffered in week 1, as he averaged 9.6 yards per pass play in last week’s win (although Louisville would give up 8.2 yppp to an average quarterback). For the season Johnson has been 0.5 yppp worse than average but I suspect that mark will improve given that he was 1.5 yppp better than average as a starter in the 2005 season. Johnson’s numbers should be very good in this game against an Aztecs’ defense that has given up 8.0 yppp and 6.7 yards per play this season (to teams that would average 6.1 yppp and 5.5 yppp against an average defense). San Diego State has allowed an average of 38 points in their 4 games against Division 1A opposition and I see Utah getting around that number in this game. San Diego State has a good attack, averaging 6.2 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but the Aztecs have only averaged 19 points against 4 Division 1A teams. Utah has a solid defense that’s yielded just 5.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit, so they should slow down that San Diego State attack. My math model favors Utah by 16 ½ points and the situations strongly favor the Utes, but I’ll downgrade this a bit since Utah is just 4-12-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more under coach Kyle Whittingham. I’ll consider Utah a Strong Opinion at -14 or less.

Strong Opinion
TEXAS EL PASO (-3.0) 37 East Carolina 29
06:05 PM Pacific, 13-Oct-07
East Carolina turned a +5 in turnover margin into a 52-38 win over Central Florida last week, but that victory sets up the Pirates in a negative 51-121-2 ATS road letdown situation this week. UTEP is coming off an upset win over Tulsa and the Miners have yet to lose to the pointspread this season. The Miners are good offensively (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and should score plenty of points against a banged up ECU defense that’s been 0.3 yppl worse than average so far this season and may be without two of their top defenders with linebackers Quentin Cotton and Pierre Bell both questionable with shoulder injuries. Quarterback Robert Kass finally took over the starting quarterback job for the Pirates last week after starting the season by losing that spot due to off the field problems. Kass played well in his starting debut last week and I rate the Pirates as better than average with Kass at the controls instead of being 0.3 yppl worse than average as their season stats suggest. UTEP struggles defensively (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team) and my math model only favors the Miners by 1 point after adjusting ECU’s offense with Kass as the starting quarterback. The situation is favorable but it’s not good enough to give up much line value so I’ll consider UTEP a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less and I’d take UTEP in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.

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Thursday, October 11th
3:00 Eastern Update
3*Florida State -5 over Wake Forest
Meaningful revenge game for Florida State who lost 0-30 at home vs Wake Forest last season in one of the Seminoles worst ever home losses and the only shutout home loss in Bowden's 31 years at Florida State. The offenses are fairly even other than Florida State is averaging 1 turnover on offense while Wake Forest is averaging 2.8 turnovers on offense which could be the difference. Florida State has the edge on defense allowing just 15.6 points per game, 303 total yards and forces their opponents to go 19.4 yards to score a point while Wake Forest gives up 25.6 points per game, 358 total yards and their opponents only have to go 14.0 yards to score a point. Florida State has a +1.0 net yards per play differential while Wake Forest has a -0.1 net yards per play differential giving the Seminoles a +1.1 net yards per play edge in this match-up. My computer line is Florida State by 8.5 points. The Seminoles have dominated this series winning 14 of 15 and should make it 15 of 16 in what is a major revenge game for Florida State.

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Wolkosky Milan




10* FLORIDA STATE -5
10* FSU/WF UNDER 44



10* D'BACKS

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