Saturday Baseball Service Picks

Saturday Baseball Service Picks

Robert Ross 2 Pack MLB
Guaranteed Pick: Robert Ross

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs Oct 6 2007 6:05PM
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

Reason: Momentum all on the side of Arizona. Hernandez with solid career numbers vs. the Cubs. ARIZONA is 27-15 against the money line after 3 straight games without giving up a stolen base this season. HERNANDEZ is 35-26 against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The CUBS are 66-91 against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span since 1997. Take Arizona!

Game: Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies Oct 6 2007 9:35PM
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Reason: Close out game will be tough for the young Rockies. PHILADELPHIA is 22-12 against the money line in road games with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent over the last 2 seasons and 16-7 against the money line after allowing 9 runs or more this season. Additional supporting angles say to Play On - Any team (PHILADELPHIA) - good offensive team (>=5.0 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA= 4.20 to 5.20)-NL, ice cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games (29-11 since 1997, 72.5%) and Play On - Road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season (NL), good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season. (73-58 over the last 5 seasons, 55.7%). Take Philadelphia!

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Wunderdog Comp (MLB)

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Game: Arizona at Chicago Cubs (5:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 9.5 -104


The Cubs face elimination at home today, as they have fallen down 2-0 in this five-game series. The Cubs have not been home since September 23, and will need a big performance from Rich Hill to stay alive. The side here doesn't offer any value in our estimation, but we do see tremendous value on the total. Livan Hernandez has been a solid playoff pitcher throughout his career, and the scouting report says that for him it is all about command. If he doesn't have it, expect an early exit, if he does expect a gem. A look at some situations that display the value here. The Cubs have been a team that isn't winning with their bats they win with their arms, which is the same for Arizona. The Cubs have managed 4.5 runs a game at home against .500+ teams when they start a RHP against them. The D-Backs are scoring just 3.76-rpg in the same situation, but on the road. It leaves a starting point, in terms of reasonable expectation, that 8.26 runs are expected taking this average, a full 1.3 runs below the posted total. On the road, Arizona has played to a total of from 9 to 10.5 on 29 occasions this season and has played under 21-6-2, or 78% of the time. They have also played under to the tune of 23-9-2 against a team with a winning home record. Today they send Livan Hernandez to the mound, where he has been under 7-0-1 in his last eight road starts with a line of 9 to 10.5, and is 16-5-1 under in his last 22 starts on the road. The Cubs have played under 19-7-1 in their last 27 games against a RHP, and 30-13-1 under overall in their last 44 games. The biggest bat in the Cub lineup is Ramirez, who has hit .395 against LHP, and 109 points less against RHP. The D-Backs do not have a hitter on the roster with more than 34 road RBIs, and feature just 3 hitters .270+. We have teams averaging 8.26 runs a game, in all the similar features presented in this one with both teams in the top seven in pitching with bullpens in the top third of the league as well, and neither team above 18 in runs scored in MLB, with a pretty lofty NL playoff game total. Finally home plate umpire for today's game is Greg Gibson. Gibson's last eight behind the plate in Cubs games resulted in 6-2 in favor of the under, while in his last six D-Back games the result was 4-1-1 under, so collectively his last 14 games involving these teams resulted in 10-3-1 to the under. These teams met three times in Chicago to a combined 16 runs in a three-game series with no game totaling over eight. The teams combined to hit .195 in the series. We also have a playoff system that has posted a 65% winning rate for specific situation unders, and this game applies to that system. We will look for this to be a low scoring game and ride the UNDER.

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Matty O'Shea:

Matty O'Shea | MLB RunLine Double-Dime Bet
908 COL -1.5 (+125) BetUS vs 907 PHI
Analysis: Philadelphia sends ageless wonder Jamie Moyer (14-12, 5.01 ERA) to the mound on the brink of elimination and will realize a weak pitching staff is what kept them from putting up a better fight here against the Rockies. This could very well be Moyer's last start, and he is winless during his career vs. Colorado with an 0-4 mark and 5.54 ERA. He was on the losing end of a 6-3 loss at Coors Field back on July 7th, surrendering four runs and eight hits in 6 2/3 innings. Moyer has gone more than six innings just once in his last nine starts, so that means we'll likely see the pathetic Phillies bullpen once again. That bodes well for the Rockies and young Ubaldo Jimenez (4-4, 4.28), who is coming off a brilliant start against Arizona last Sunday. Jimenez allowed just one hit and one run to the Diamondbacks in 6 1/3 innings with four walks and a career-high 10 strikeouts in a 4-3 victory. Colorado's previous six wins this season with Jimenez on the mound were all decided by two runs or more (and five of those were by at least three), so I'm betting that the Rockies close out the Phillies by covering the runline as my Double Dime MLB Value Play O' the Day.

Matty O'Shea | MLB Total Single-Dime Bet
906 CHC / 905 ARI Over 9.5 BetUS
Analysis: It's do or die for the Cubs back home at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, and I expect their bats will finally come alive against Arizona's Livan Hernandez in Game 3. Hernandez was just 4-8 on the road during the regular season with a 5.19 ERA, and he gave up 20 hits and seven runs in his last two starts overall totaling just 10 innings. Chicago's Rich Hill saw his last three home starts all go OVER the total thanks to solid run support, as his teammates averaged 7.3 runs in winning those games by a combined six runs. The OVER is also 7-2 in Chicago's last nine playoff games, so I'll bet it here as my Single Dime MLB Total O' the Day.

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