Football Service Picks-Saturday

Re: Football Service Picks-Saturday

Phil Steeles Power Plays

4* Nebraska
4* Oklahoma
4* Ohio St
4* Virginia
4* Alabama
4* Oregon
4* Washington
4* Texas A&M
4* Penn State
4* Arizona State
4* Maryland

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GOLD SHEET

KEY RELEASES
College---Miami-OH, UCLA, S. Florida, Ok. State
Pro---Steelers, Raiders, OVER Titans/Jags

XTRA
College---UVA, NCST, OLE Miss, VTech
Pro---OVER ARIZ/SF

CKO
College---11-Kansas St, 10-PSU, 10-S. Carolina, 10-Ark State
Pro---10-Dolphins

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NCAA LEVERAGE INC.

(from Don Wagners's place)

Louisiana Tech +28 (over Hawai)

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2:00p Jim Kruger
California r337
Colorado State r338
o62.0 (-110) / 3 units TOTALS
# 337 California - Colorado State OVER 62

Cal gave up 31 points to Tennessee in their opening game allowing a 68% completion rate for Volunteer quarterback Erik Ainge. Colorado State also gave up 31 points while scoring 28 points themselves. This was almost double the Rams’ 14.1 conference scoring average from last year. CSU quarterback senior Caleb Hanie was very sharp hitting 22 of 27 for 229 yards.

One area to look at closely in playing college totals are the special teams. CSU in their last game gave up some big plays on special teams. Does anyone remember the number one college highlight from last weekend not involving Appalachian State? Yep, CAL WR and return artist especianal DeSean Jackson’s unbelievable punt return.

The OVER is 10-1 in Colorado State’s last 11 games as an underdog of 10.5 or higher. The OVER is 6-2 in the Rams last 8 non-conference games. California is 9-4 in their last 13 games as a favorite.

Take the OVER!

Line available at BetJamaica.com
3:30p Jim Kruger
Oregon r345
+7.0 (-105) / 3 units # 345 Oregon +7 over Michigan

Michigan’s season went down the tubes with their loss to Appalachian State. The team and its fans are devastated. How do you think RB Mike Hart and WR Mario Manningham feel after bypassing last year’s NFL draft to come back their senior season to “win the national championship”? Obviously, an argument can be made that the Wolverines will be so mad they will kill Oregon. Perhaps if the Wolverines got off to a fast start in this game with a couple of quick scores that could happen. My money says it won’t.

Michigan has not done well the past three years in non-conference action as evidenced by their 3-8 ATS record. Just the opposite is true for Oregon as they are 10-5 ATS in non-conference action since 2002 and carry a 25-5 ATS record in their road opener over the past 30 years.

Oregon came alive in the second half against Houston last week putting up 28 points. They are led by dual-threat quarterback senior Dennis Dixon. The Ducks run a spread offense which is something Michigan has had problems with in the past, including going against a mobile quarterback.

A great spot to go against a team is when their dreams have been shattered.

Take the points with the Ducks!

Line available at BetJamaica.com

5:45p Jim Kruger
South Carolina r353
+3.5 (-110) / 3 units # 353 South Carolina +3.5 over Georgia

I like to look for quality teams to play on in the second game of the season who had a below average showing in Week 1. South Carolina fits that requirement as they failed to cover against ULL but were without starting quarterback Blake Mitchell due to a suspension.

The “Ol’ Ball Coach” Steve Spurrier has been speaking highly about his Gamecocks. I like them, also. Last year Georgia shut out South Carolina, 18-0. Spurrier is 13-5 ATS as a road dog and 7-1 if he has revenge. Well, he definitely has revenge as he has been shut out only one other time before.

The past five match-ups between these two teams has not produced a total of over 38 points scored so getting points in this match-up is key. Georgia Coach is 5-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.

South Carolina is a dangerous team and I like them getting the points.

7:00p Jim Kruger
Oklahoma State r396
-23.5 (-110) / 3 units # 396 Oklahoma State -23.5 over Florida Atlantic
Oklahoma State ran into a very good defense last week when they played Georgia hardly resembling the sixth rated offense from last year. OSU could only muster 266 total yards but that should change dramatically with overmatched Florida Atlantic. FAU lost last year to OSU, 48-8, and were outgained by 217 yards.

FAU is off of a nice conference win over Middle-Tennessee State and are probably feeling pretty good about themselves. FAU has done very poorly outside of the Sun Belt. Last year they were outscored 192-20 and are on a seven game non-cover streak against non-conference schools.

The Cowboys are not going to be in a happy mood after their embarrassing loss.

Take Oklahoma State and lay the points!

9:15p Jim Kruger
Virginia Tech r383
+11.5 (-110) / 3 units #383 Virginia Tech +11.5 over LSU

I love to take double digits when a total is lined as low as the 38 in this game. Virginia Tech has the shooting tragedy off of their back. Plus, they are on the road away from Blacksburg. Not many coaches in the nation better than Tech’s Frank Beamer. Va Tech is 12-2 ATS in their first road game over tha past 14 years. Beamer is 51-25-1 ATS in non-conference games at VT. And, the real kicker is Beamer is 21-5 ATS in non-conference action following an out of league win.

The LSU 45-0 win against an overmatched Mississippi State team is a shade misleading. The Bulldogs committed seven turnovers and were playing well until a Tiger touchdown in the closing seconds of the second quarter. I wasn’t overly impressed with LSU quarterback Matt Flynn.

The game should be low-scoring, a defensive battle. The edge in special teams goes to Virginia Tech and I like the Hokies to get the cover.

Take Virginia Tech!

Line available at Bodog

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Selective

Saturday September 8, 2007

South Carolina +3.5 for 4 units

Texas -9 for 3 units

Ball St/EST Mich Over 43 for 2 units

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Wild Bill


college

Sept 6-9


Over 58 L'ville-MTenn (5 units)...MT defense had probs vs FAU last week.. UL potent...63-10 (W)


Temple -3 (1 unit)...revenge from last year..2nd yr HC Golden looking for W, Temple 20-13


Alabama -3 1/2 (4 units)..Saban factor vs scrappy club...Tide 24 Vandy 17


Bowling Green +18 (1 unit)...BG gave Minn all it could handle, Mich State eratic...M St 42 BG 28


Baylor -6 1/2 (1 unit) Bears at home vs Rice who got beat by 1-AA LW..Baylor 24 Rice 14


Cal -14 (1 unit)...Cal offense potent vs poor defense...Cal 42 CSU 21


Over 60 Cal-Colorado St (2 units)..see above


Missouri -6 (1 unit)...Tigers undervalued...Mizzoui 37 Miss 17


Ball St -5 1/2 (1 unit)...Ball St tougher offensively...BSt 27 EM 20


Oregon +8 1/2 (3 units)..Ducks hang in there on offense...Michigan 31 Oregon 30


Under 63 Oregon-Michigan (1 unit)...read above


Fresno +17 1/2 (1 unit)...Bulldogs tough DD dog...A&M 42 Fresno 28


So. Carolina +5 1/2 (1 unit)...Spurrier revenge mode tough...Ga 24 USC 21


Penn State -17 (1 unit)...Irish no offense whatsover...Penn ST revenge 42 ND 17


Air Force +8 (4 units)...Air Force straight up...AF 31 Utah 17


North Carolina +5 (2 units)...Butch Davis era is here....UNC 27 ECU 24


UCLA -7 (5 units)...Bruins a large amount of returnees at home..UCLA 41 BYU 17


TCU +10 (3 units)...TCU goes for the jugular....UT 24 TCU 23


Over 48 1/2 So. Miss-Tennessee (2 units)....UT will have to score....UT 34 SM 21


Hawaii -27 (1 unit)...Rainbows on potent outburst with Colt at QB..Hawaii 63 LT 27


Auburn -7 (1 unit)...Auburn too tough on "D"...Aub 23 USF 10


New Mex State +8 1/2 (1 unit)...Better offense should prevail...NMSt 31 NM 24


Colorado +16 (1 unit)....Colorado revenge...ASU 28 CU 20


Arkansas State +4 1/2 (1 unit)...Ark St stayed tough with Texas LW...ASU 27 Memphis 24


North Texas +16 (1 unit)...Dog or bust

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Inside Info:

3-mich, 2-nd, Tx


Joe D:

25-temp, 20-baylor, 15-mizz, Okla


Net Prophet

CFB:

Wake Forest +8' over Nebraska
Vanderbilt +3' over Alabama
Oregon +7 over Michigan
South Carolina +4 over Georgia
South Carolina/Georgia UNDER 45
South Florida +7 over Auburn

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Lexus Sports (ACE) This guy isn't too good.
NCAAF

5 star Alabama
5 star Nebraska
4 star Tennessee
4 star Michigan
3 star Va tech
3 star Notre Dame

Chevy Rock & Roll 400

1 unit on T Stewart +800
1 unit on Kyle Busch +800
2 units on J Johnson +500

NFL

5 star Texans

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Re: Football Service Picks-Saturday

Chuck Franklin
Saturday Plays:

College Football

1500♦ NORTHWESTERN
The Wolf Pack are still licking their wounds from the beating they took from Nebraska last week. The Wildcats are riding the momentum of their shutout vs. Northeastern at home last week. Northwestern will play in front of the home crowd for the second week in a row, and plan to take advantage of their scheduling advantage against this Nevada team that is on the road for the second week in a row. The Wolf Pack are on a 2-9 ATS run as road dogs, and with the Wildcats anxious to avenge last year’s embarrassing loss to Nevada in Reno, it’s a good time to side with Northwestern here in Evanston.


1500♦ VANDERBILT
Vandy has a great shot to keep this one close, if they don’t win the game outright. They have 17 starters returning, and have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 and each of their last five meetings with Alabama. The Commodores are also a good bet in the early part of the season, as they are on an 8-1 ATS run in September. The Crimson Tide is coming off a blowout win over a lowly Western Carolina team, but they shouldn’t get overconfident heading into this match-up with the Commodores. Don’t forget that the Tide was a very weak performer in SEC action last year, and doesn’t look to be much improved this season. Side with Vandy at home.


2000♦ UCLA
UCLA is on a 7-2 ATS run in September, and their offense is looking very impressive this year. In their victory over Stanford last week the Bruins amassed over 600 yards of total offense! This one will take place in front of the home fans at the Rose Bowl, where UCLA is riding a profitable 11-2 ATS record in their last 13 home openers. Contrast this with the difficulty BYU has had in their first road game of the year, on an 8-17 ATS run, and the choice is even more clear to side with the Bruins. One final note: BYU has covered only one of the last six meetings with UCLA, so go with the Bruins tonight.

1000♦ HAWAII
The Warriors of Hawaii have been very impressive in their most recent road games, winning their final three of last year by an average of almost 35 points per game. With this high performing offense they will come out strong in their first road game of the 2007 season just as strong. Especially since they are matching up against a Louisiana Tech team that was ranked 119th in total defense last year. The Bulldogs will crumble to the Warriors, who are coming off a blowout 63-6 win last week. Also keep in mind that La. Tech is on a 6-22 ATS run vs. a team with a winning record. Side with the Warriors on the road.

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Pointwise Redsheet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

89 Northwestern 34 Nevada 14

89 Arizona state 44 Colorado 14

88 Texas Tech 45 Utep 13

88 Penn state 37 Notre Dame 10

88 Hawaii 63 Louisiana Tech 17

87 Miich st, AF, Wash st

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Charlie Sports

Ball State-3' ( 500*)
Miami Fl+11 (30*)
Nevada+10 (20*)
Ohio State-28' (20*)
Nebraska-8' (10*)

West Virginia-24 (10*) free play

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Re: Football Service Picks-Saturday

MIKE ROSE


Wake Forest +8.0 (-110)
Sat Sep 8 '07 12:00p
I need to see more from this Nebraska club before I can feel comfortable laying this type of chalk in unchartered waters. Sure, last weeks win at home vs. Nevada was nice (52-10), but the Deacons sure as heck won’t be confused with the Wolfpack and they are the defending ACC Champs. This is also one heck of a look ahead spot for Big Red HC Bill Callahan’s Cornhuskers with USC on deck.
I had no problem laying the points with BC last week in Chestnut Hill, nut there’s no way I’m going to fade HC Jim Grobe at home in this spot knowing how well he’s performed in these dog roles over the years. The Demon Deacons were 7-0 ATS in the dog role a year ago, and they’re 18-12 SU off a loss under his watchful eye. He just gets the best out of his men regardless of whether they’re the more talented team, and this is an awful lot of points for him to have in his back pocket at home to cash yet another ticket for us.
While QB Sam Keller looked solid in his Husker debut and RB Marlon Lucky finally had a breakout game, I just don’t trust HC Callahan and feel the coaching advantage decisively stands on the home teams sideline. With the Huskers dominating the Wolfpack on the ground, QB Sam Keller had a very easy day and wasn’t looked upon to save many drives. That won’t be the case this week as Wake did an excellent job limiting BC’s ground attack last week, and I’m interested to see if Keller can rip apart the Wake secondary much like BC QB Matt Ryan did last week.
My money says he can’t, and yours should to!!! Back the Demon Deacons in a role they’ve come through more times than not as they give the Huskers a stiffer challenge than many expect.




Florida State -34.0 (-110)
Sat Sep 8 '07 5:00p
Blood’s in the water people, and Doak Campbell is going to be privy to a feeding frenzy quite unlike any seen in the warm Atlantic waters for quite some time. After dropping their third straight to Clemson on Monday night, the Noles aren’t going to be the most hospitable hosts. Nor should they be, as they need to get down to business if they plan on turning their ACC misfortune around later in the season.
We saw a tale of two halves last Monday night. The first stanza saw us witness a shell-shocked Seminoles club that had no idea what it was doing. Clemson’s speed and Death Valley had them up in arms for the first 27 minutes of the game. Then, after K Cismesia kicked the FG to get them on the board, the Noles turned back into the football players they originally took the field as and started playing the game they were recruited for. The defense came out in the second half and held the Clemson offense to zip, zilch, nada, and the Noles offense found its rhythm. Before you knew it, it was a one score game and the Seminoles had a shot of pulling off an unbelievable comeback. It wasn’t in the cards however, and the Noles fell to 0-1 on the year and Tommy gets to cut the bird at Thanksgiving once again.
As for UAB, the final score of their game vs. MSU isn’t truly indicative of what truly transpired on the field. Spartans HC mark Dantonio called off the dogs in the second half. At one point, I truly thought the Spartans were going to drop a c-note on the visitors. The Blazers are that bad, and they’re going to play the role of crash test dummy throughout the first couple months of the season until the youngsters finally come to terms with what the new regime wants from them.
This one is going to get real ugly. The Blazers are just the team the Noles offense needs to find its rhythm against. OC Jimbo Fisher is going to look like a genius after this one, and Tallahassee will be a happy place for at least this weekend. Don’t have any reservations laying the lumber here. The Woodshed is getting primed and lacquered as I type, and the Blazers will unfortunately play the role of Steve-O as the Noles perform some “Jackass” like pranks on these youngsters.




TCU @ Texas u44.5 (-110)
Sat Sep 8 '07 7:00p
The game the Fort Worth area has been clamoring about for over a decade is finally here!!! The TCU Horned Frogs will go into Austin with their vaunted defense looking to shock the world. Whether they do or not is anyone’s guess, probably not, but they will put their best foot forward and put on one heck of a defensive display. These clubs haven’t met since 1995 when they were both members of the Southwest Conference. Texas holds a nice lead in the series (60-20-1), and they’re a dominating 31-11-1 in Austin winning 14 in a row.
However, last weeks weak effort against Arkansas State must have the Horned Frogs believing they can put an end to their losing streak in Austin, but in order to do so, they’ll have to play shut down defense much like they did last week when they blanked Baylor by a 27-0 final count. TCU has a number of question marks on the offensive side of the ball, and I have to say I wasn’t really impressed with the play of new QB Andy Dalton or the offense for that matter. Granted, it was a vanilla attack with this game on deck, but the fact that they could only convert 3 of 15 attempts on 3rd down has to be sounding off alarms in HC Patterson’s head. If he’s behind the chains for a majority of this game, TCU stands no chance. Texas will find a way to score, so some sort of offensive consistency must be found.
That being said, Texas’ effort last week vs. the Ark State Indians was flat out embarrassing. They were out gained in total yardage, out-first downed, lost the time of possession battle, and lost the crucial turnover battle as well. That was against a Sun Belt team. Now, they have to go against a MT. West team with BCS Bowl aspirations, and they’ll no doubt lose this game if they come up short in those four categories again.
This will be a very physical game, as TCU will bring everything they have on defense knowing full well they’re lacking on the offensive side of the ball. I foresee Texas’ troubles continuing therefore keeping the combined score of this game ‘Under’ this posted number.

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Brandon Lang

25 Dime
UCLA
5 Dime
Oregon
LSU
Washington
Washington State
Penn State

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Re: Football Service Picks-Saturday

LEROY'S LINE (Sunday night show):

this used to be old Dave Cokin doing these but he has been replaced by Barry Holthouse.

(1-2 LW, 1-2 YTD)

CSU +15
NCST +13
VTECH +12

Friday afternoon Leroy's Line Radio Show Selections:

UVA -17
FSU -34
NMST +7

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Dave Malinsky - 5*

PICK: Virginia (-16.5)
REASON FOR PICK: 5* VIRGINIA over DUKE

Here’s the thing about bad teams – they are bad. That might not sound all that brilliant, so let’s rephrase in a way that really matters in the work that we do - Most genuinely bad teams are even worse than scores and statistics show. And that is part of the story behind this one.

Duke is the prototype of being a bad team, and carrying a 21-game losing streak should have most thinking they are fully aware of how bad the Blue Devils are. But when you are bad at an extreme level, you get a reprieve on both the scoreboards and in the stat columns. Almost all of the opponents end up taking it easy against you, and you rarely have to take their best punch. You do not have to face the other team’s starters for the entire game, and instead of having an aggressive opponent attacking on offense in the second half, many games find them backing off instead, and just trying to work the clock and get the game over with. As such, bad teams can still cover a fair share of pointspreads, not so much because of any particular skill that they brought to the event, but rather because the other side was not trying very hard.

So what happens on those rare occasions when someone attacks a bad team with their full arsenal? What happened to Duke last week, and what will happen to Duke here.

On Saturday the Blue Devils thought they had a real chance to end the nation’s longest losing streak, facing a mediocre Connecticut team from the Big East. And when they caught a break by returning a kickoff for a touchdown, they actually went into the locker room ahead 14-11 at halftime. But all that did was lead to coach Ted Roof’s worst nightmare – having to face an opponent that was going to come out of the locker angry and ready to go hard the rest of the way. And it was ugly. The Huskies went on a dominating 34-0 run after intermission, and when all of the counting was over it was 45-14 on the scoreboard, 23-10 in first downs and 487-169 in total offense. Now the even worse news for Roof is that his team will get a full game of that treatment this week.

Off of a dismal opening loss at Wyoming there is a real sense of urgency for Al Groh here. In a season in which big things are expected it means a “no prisoners” attitude, especially as he catches flack from the local media in what could be his final season, if things do not turn around. And perhaps the best way to measure Groh for this setting is to look at his own history a bit, both as a big home favorite in a conference game, and against this Duke program. That is what cements the play. Groh has been favored more than a TD five times in the last six seasons vs. A.C.C. oppponents, and got the money every time. The last four seasons his Cavaliers have whipped the Blue Devils by a combined 139-23, for 29 points per game, and in the last two it has been 75-7. That is exactly what we want to see.

Although the Virginia offense is indeed nothing special, it does not have to be in this spread range. The Cavalier defense has a chance to be one of the 20 best in the nation this season, and there is every reason to believe that they can pitch a shutout this week. They did LY, holding the Duke offense to 100 yards, and two years ago it was 31-0 in the fourth quarter before the Blue Devils were able to score against the reserve defenders. And because of some other key circumstances, this is one game in which we can confidently use defense to cover a double-figure spread, which is the final piece of the puzzle.

As bad as the Blue Devils are on both sides of the ball, there is a key element in which they are particularly horrendous – the punting game. It was so bad on Saturday that they used three different punters, two freshmen and a sophomore, and they combined for an awful 28.7 yards on seven punts. That is correct, 28.7. That means plenty of favorable field position opportunities for the Cavalier offense to get untracked, and they make up for last week’s awful showing by breaking this one wide open

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Teddy Covers

MinnesotaU

SMU

Virginia

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Stryker:

"Blowout"- NEBRASKA

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ats lock club

8 washington
8 ucla
7 n mex
2 round robin parlay
6 nwestern
5 bama

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ultra Sports :

5* Virginia Tech
4* Oregon
3* Arizona St, Kent St, Nc State

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northcoast Totals

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3-* Wyom/ Under 41-
3* Ak/Ohio St Under 49
3* Fres/Tx am Over 51-

2-1 last wk +2.5 u

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