Dolphins vs. Patriots Week 17 Prediction
The Patriots can lock up the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win today against the Dolphins, a feat that should be accomplished seeing as how New England is a massive home favorite on Sunday. That said, will the Patriots cover at the window?
121 Miami Dolphins (+17) at 122 New England Patriots (-17); O/U 45
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 29, 2019
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Dolphins are drawing 67% of the betting tickets ahead of tonight’s game.
Miami Dolphins Fantasy Spin
DeVante Parker caught 5-of-15 targets for 111 yards and one touchdown in the Dolphins' Week 16 win over the Bengals. Parker and Ryan Fitzpatrick left a lot of production on the field -- 10 of his targets went incomplete -- but you'll hear no complaints from those with Parker in fantasy. The breakout stud caught his ninth touchdown of the season on a slant route in the red zone and went over 1,000 yards for the first time of his career. Since Preston Williams was put on injured reserve, Parker has been a WR1 in fantasy. He'll need to be downgraded in Week 17 against the Patriots, however.
New England Patriots Fantasy Spin
Julian Edelman (knee, shoulder) is questionable for the Patriots' Week 17 matchup against the Dolphins. Edelman is set up brilliantly in the slot against a Dolphins defense that has been boat raced by notable high-volume slot mavens such as Jarvis Landry (10-148-2), JuJu Smith-Schuster (5-103-1), Jamison Crowder (8-83-1), Golden Tate (1-51-1) and Tyler Boyd (9-128-2). Injuries are a concern here after Edelman was limited to 62% and 71% snap rates over the past two weeks, but it's unlikely the Patriots relegate their key offensive contributor to a reserve role in this must-win game.
The Dolphins are winless at 0-7 against the spread in their last seven trips to Foxborough and are just 2-5 against the number in their last seven meetings with the Patriots overall.
The favorite is 10-4 against the spread in the last 14 meetings between these two team and the home side is also 13-3 against the number in the last 16 meetings.
NFL Week 17 Prediction
It’s tempting to grab the points with how sluggish the Patriots have played offensively this season, but the key for me in this matchup is New England’s defense. Yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick has shown a lot of grit and yes, he can put together some big plays to keep Miami in games. That said, he’s also cost the Dolphins plenty of times with his decision-making and his turnover prone play. I don’t see Miami scoring more than 10 points in this one and while it might be a lot to ask for New England to score close to 30, this Dolphins defense has been hemorrhaging points all season. I see Tom Brady and Co. rolling while securing a first-round bye.
NFL WEEK 17 PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -17