Dolphins vs. Patriots Total Prediction
The total for Sunday’s AFC East matchup between the Dolphins and Patriots hit the board at 43.5 but has climbed a full point to 44.5. Is the over a safe play for bettors? Or given New England’s struggles offensively this year, is the under a better bet?
121 Miami Dolphins (+16) at 122 New England Patriots (-16); O/U 44.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 29, 2019
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Dolphins are drawing 71% of the betting tickets ahead of tonight’s game.
Miami Dolphins Fantasy Spin
Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 31-of-52 passes for 419 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception in the Dolphins' Week 16 overtime win over the Bengals. The Dolphins lost a 35-12 fourth-quarter lead and punted the ball twice in overtime, yet still beat the tanking Bengals on a game-winning field goal attempt. Fitzpatrick was electric while building that initial lead, airing it out to DeVante Parker (5-111-1) and Mike Gesicki (6-82-2) frequently. It was a peak "FitzMagic" performance, one that had NFL Draft implications. The Dolphins' win locked the Bengals into the first overall pick next year. Miami will be picking not too far after that and have a ton of team needs to fill. Fitzpatrick will have one last ride as the Dolphins' starter in Week 17 against the Patriots.
New England Patriots Fantasy Spin
Tom Brady completed 26-of-33 passes for 271 yards and one touchdown in the Patriots' Week 16 win over the Bills. This win clinched the AFC East title for what seems like the millionth time in a row. Brady was as effective as he's been in weeks, despite playing one of the league's best secondaries. Brady didn't complete a pass beyond 20 yards but was accurate on his underneath passes, largely finding open receivers thanks to an excellent game plan by OC Josh McDaniels. The Patriots also got good games from Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead to balance the attack. Brady and the Patriots will face the Dolphins at home to finish the season. They'll likely finish 13-3 and head into the playoffs with arguably the best defense in the NFL.
The over is 6-2 in the Dolphins’ last eight games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
The under is 9-3 in the Patriots’ last 12 games versus AFC East rivals, is 11-5 in their last 16 games played in December and is 18-8 in their last 26 games as a favorite.
NFL Week 17 Prediction
By no means do I believe New England’s offense is “fixed,” but the unit has showed improvement over the past three weeks. The Patriots started to find their running game in the second half of their 23-16 loss to the Chiefs in Week 14, then hung 34 points on the Bengals in Cincinnati (with a lot of help from their own defense in the second half) before scoring 24 points last Saturday afternoon against Buffalo’s stout defense. Again, Brady and the Patriots are not firing on all cylinders but they should do some damage against this leaky Miami defense. The Dolphins have surrendered no fewer than 22 points in six straight games. They’ve also scored no fewer than 20 points over that same span. While New England’s defense is capable of shutting any opponent down, the best bet when it comes to the total this weekend in Foxborough is the over.
NFL WEEK 17 PREDICTION: DOLPHINS/PATRIOTS OVER 44.5