Patriots vs. Bills Spread Prediction

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills, 12/23/18 Week 16 Predictions

The New England Patriots have lost back-to-back games and are now laying double-digit points to AFC East rival the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Will Tom Brady and Co. cover such a big number or will they lose ATS yet again?

Game Snapshot

103 Buffalo Bills at 104 New England Patriots

1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 23

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers from online sports book, the Patriots are 13.5-point favorites to beat the Bills. The total, meanwhile, sits at 44.5 points. As of this writing, 53% of the public betting tickets are on the Patriots to cover the point spread.

Buffalo Bills

Chris Ivory (questionable, shoulder) is not expected to play Week 16 against the Patriots. It's a surprising development, particularly after Ivory got in full practice work on both Thursday and Friday. With Ivory trending toward missing another game, change-of-pace duties behind starter LeSean McCoy will likely fall to undrafted rookie Keith Ford, who registered 46 yards on 14 carries in his NFL debut last week against Detroit.

New England Patriots

Rob Gronkowski (ankle, back) was removed from the Week 16 injury report. The Patriots managed Gronk's practice reps this week but he's fully healthy. Gronkowski should see a big Week 16 role with Josh Gordon suspended.

NFL Betting Trends


The Bills have dropped all four games against the spread in their last four meetings with the Patriots.

New England

The Patriots have covered the spread in five of their last six divisional games and are 36-16 ATS in their last 42 games overall.


While the Bills have struggled ATS versus the Patriots over the last four meetings the road team is actually 19-7-1 against the spread in the last 27 meetings between these two teams. Without the suspended Josh Gordon, I expect the Patriots to lean on their ground game today. Tom Brady is taking too many hits behind an offensive line that has not played well at times this year so preserving him for the playoffs is of the utmost importance for New England. With a more ground-heavy approach for the Pats against an underrated Buffalo defense, I’m taking the points.

NFL Week 16 Prediction: Buffalo Bills +13.5

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