Bills vs. Patriots, 12/21/19 NFL Week 16 Predictions

Bills vs. Patriots Saturday Prediction

The Bills and Patriots will meet for the second time this season on Sunday at 4:30 p.m. ET with plenty on the line in the AFC East. Are the Pats laying too many points in this matchup or will the Bills lay an egg as a 6.5-point underdog?

Game Snapshot

453 Buffalo Bills (+6.5) at 454 New England Patriots (-6.5); O/U 37

4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, December 21, 2019

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

Public Betting Trends

According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Bills are receiving 64% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Spin

Cole Beasley caught 1-of-6 targets for six yards in Week 15 against the Steelers. This was an ugly game for Beasley. He caught just one of his six targets, including a drop that resulted in Josh Allen’s interception, and struggled to get open on third downs. Beasley had been trending up with at least 75 yards in two of the last three games. This also break a three game touchdown streak for him. Beasley has been Buffalo most consistent receiver, but he’s just a low-end FLEX for a Week 16 matchup with the Patriots.

New England Patriots Fantasy Spin

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport confirms Julian Edelman (questionable, knee, shoulder) is expected to play Week 16 against the Bills. Edelman has battled shoulder issues much of the year (his knee injury is a more recent ailment), though his availability for Week 16 was never in doubt. Rapoport notes Edelman should be "less banged up" this week than he was a week ago in Cincinnati. Edelman's nine-yard performance in Week 15 marked his lowest receiving output in over six years. The reigning Super Bowl MVP had one of his quieter weeks when New England faced Buffalo earlier this season, registering just four grabs for 30 scoreless yards on seven targets in a 16-10 Patriots win.

NFL Betting Trends

Buffalo

The Bills are 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight road games and are 5-1-1 against the number in their last seven games overall.

New England

The Patriots are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four games played on Saturday and are 42-19-2 against the number in their last 63 home games.

Prediction

The road team is 20-8-1 against the spread in the last 29 meetings between these two teams while the Bills are 3-1-1 against the number in their last five trips to Foxborough. If the Patriots were firing on all cylinders offensively, I might be more inclined to lay the 6.5 points, but they have an inconsistent rushing attack and Tom Brady isn’t on the same page with anyone outside of Edelman. The Bills have a strong defense, a solid offensive line and Josh Allen seems to make just enough plays to keep Buffalo afloat.

NFL Week 16 Prediction: Buffalo Bills +6.5