Texans vs. Bucs Total Prediction
The total in Saturday’s Texans and Bucs matchup has dropped a full three points off the opening number, moving from 53 to 50 at most sports books. Should bettors follow the line movement and take the under?
455 Houston Texans (-3) at 456 Tampa Bay Bucs (+3); O/U 50
1:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, December 21, 2019
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Texans are receiving 63% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Houston Texans Fantasy Spin
Deshaun Watson completed 19-of-27 passes for 243 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in the Texans' 24-21, Week 15 win over the Titans, adding seven rushes for 32 additional yards. Even with Will Fuller active, it was far from Watson's best effort. He killed the Texans' opening drive with a goal line interception to Kenny Vaccaro, getting fooled by the safety. He then found Kenny Stills for a pair of touchdowns before throwing yet another goal line pick in the waning moments of the third quarter. Watson tossed the ball into a crowd of Titans and it got batted up into the air. Four of Watson's 11 INTs have come in the past two weeks, while he hasn't had a 300-yard day through the air in eight weeks. Thankfully for surviving fantasy players, the Bucs are the ultimate finals matchup for Week 16.
Tampa Bay Bucs Fantasy Spin
Jameis Winston (thumb, knee) is questionable for Week 16 against the Texans. Winston was upgraded to full participation at Thursday's practice, ensuring he'll be under center for Saturday's 1 PM ET kickoff. Even with a depleted pass-catching corps, Winston still hung a career-best 458 yards on the Lions in Week 15. On pace for 5,226 passing yards—which would stand as the fourth-highest single-season total in NFL history—Jameis should be primed for another big game against the Texans, who have allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game this season (266.1). Projected for a 49.5 Vegas total—third-highest on the Week 16 slate—Saturday's game in Tampa has shootout written all over it.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 5-2 in the Texans’ last seven games overall and is 19-9 in their last 28 games played in the month of December.
The over is a perfect 5-0 in the Bucs’ last five home games and is 11-1 in their last 12 games overall.
With the amount of injuries that the Bucs are currently dealing with, I don’t see how this game lives up to its shootout potential. Winston is dealing with thumb and knee injuries, while Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (hamstring) are both out. The Texans can be explosive offensively and they do have a great matchup versus the Bucs’ terrible defensive backfield, but Houston also goes long stretches where it posses the ball for long periods of time, chewing clock and keeping the scoring in check. I like the under.
NFL Week 16 Prediction: Texans/Bucs UNDER 50