Broncos vs. Chiefs Spread Prediction
The Chiefs are laying 10 points to their AFC West rivals the Broncos at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday. Is Patrick Mahomes and the 9-4 Chiefs worth a play at that number or does Drew Lock and Co. offer bettors better value?
317 Denver Broncos (+10) at 318 Kansas City Chiefs (-10); O/U 45.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 15, 2019
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Broncos are receiving 55% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Denver Broncos Fantasy Spin
Noah Fant (hip, foot) is questionable for the Broncos' Week 15 matchup against the Chiefs. Fant caught all four of his targets for 113 yards and a score last week, but left early with foot and hip injuries. The Broncos' first-round TE clearly has the talent to thrive with enhanced target share, although Jeff Heuerman has also been plenty involved. Treat Fant as a boom-or-bust and low-end TE1 if active, while Heuerman would offer upside TE2 value with a near every-down role if the rookie is ultimately sidelined.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Damien Williams (ribs, illness) is questionable for the Chiefs' Week 15 matchup against the Broncos. Fantasy owners could live with a two-RB backfield, but this is a complete mess at the moment after coach Andy Reid brought back his old friend and proceeded to hand Spencer Ware more snaps than either Shady McCoy or Darwin Thompson. Williams' potential return would only complicate matters. The nature of rib injuries makes it unlikely that he immediately gets a three-down role, making this a committee that could feature *four* backs in Week 15. The incredible uncertainty surrounding touches and snaps alike for this entire backfield renders each player as nothing more than touchdown-dependent RB4s at best.
NFL Betting Trends
The Broncos are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall and are a perfect 5-0 at the betting window in their last five games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
The Chiefs are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games versus the Broncos overall but are just 3-7 against the number in their last 10 home games versus Denver.
I’m not convinced that Mahomes is 100% healthy and that was before he suffered a hand injury in last weekend’s win over the Patriots. Unless the league has suddenly figured him out after he tore apart opponents on a weekly basis last season, Mahomes is still feeling effects of the leg injury that he suffered earlier this season. Over his last three starts, he threw for 283 yards with a touchdown and an interception in Foxborough, 175 yards with one touchdown against the Raiders and 182 yards with one touchdown and a pick against the Chargers in Mexico City. Those are rather pedestrian numbers for the league’s MVP in 2018. Granted, game script has a lot to do with a quarterback’s numbers, but I stand by my observation: Mahomes isn’t 100% and now he’s dealing with a hand injury to boot. Three turnovers had as much to do with the Broncos’ rout of the Texans last Sunday in Houston but there’s no question that Lock has given Denver’s offense a shot in the arm. The defense has not been the problem this year and just as we’ve seen with Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee this year, a confident quarterback can make a huge difference for a team. This is too many points for a divisional matchup.
NFL Week 15 Prediction: Denver Broncos +10