Browns vs. Broncos Total Prediction
The second game of Saturday’s NFL doubleheader has the Cleveland Browns traveling to Denver to take on the Broncos at 8:20 p.m. ET. What’s the best play for bettors looking to play the total?
305 Cleveland Browns at 306 Denver Broncos
8:20 p.m. ET, Saturday, December 15, 2018
Broncos Stadium at Mile High, Denver, CO
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Broncos are 3-point favorites to beat the Browns. The total, meanwhile, sits at 45.5 points. As of this writing, 51% of the public betting tickets are on the Browns to cover the point spread.
Baker Mayfield completed 18-of-22 passes for 238 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions in the Browns' 26-20, Week 14 win over the Panthers. Gifted a gorgeous matchup, Mayfield ruthlessly exploited it, picking apart a defense that just got its coordinator fired. Mayfield nearly had a 75-yard touchdown on the first play from scrimmage, but Breshad Perriman could not quite keep his feet. Mayfield had to "settle" for a 66-yard completion. Mayfield did hit a 51-yard score to Jarvis Landry one quarter later, and it was one of the throws of the year. Extending the play with his feet, Mayfield showed off his huge arm and ridiculous ball placement with a dime to a blanketed Landry. Two of Mayfield's incompletions were drops. The No. 1 overall pick is going to be a superstar. The Browns are headed to Denver for Week 15.
Case Keenum completed 24-of-42 passes for 186 yards and a touchdown in the Broncos' 20-14, Week 14 loss to the 49ers. Adjusting to life without security blanket Emmanuel Sanders, Keenum made a bad 49ers passing defense look good. He entered halftime a truly embarrassing 7-of-15 for 43 yards. Keenum, of course, has precious few weapons at this disposal. His numbers would have been even worse had the Broncos not converted a few fourth downs. Keenum had zero upside even before Sanders' injury, and his No. 1 wideout's loss further lowers his floor. How tough of a matchup the Browns are for Week 15 will depend on Denzel Ward's (concussion) health.
NFL Betting Trends
The over is 4-1 in the Browns’ last five games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous contest.
The under is 7-0-1 in the Broncos’ last eight games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous contest.
I don’t trust Keenum and Denver’s offense to contribute enough points to push the combined score over the betting total. The under is 5-0 in the Broncos’ last five home games, is 5-0-1 in their last six games overall and is 5-1 in their last six games played in the month of December. While Mayfield and Co. has looked more potent offensively, the under is still 4-1 in the Browns’ last five games versus a team with a losing record.
NFL Week 15 Prediction: Browns/Broncos under 45.5