Bucs vs. Jaguars Week 13 Prediction
The point spread in Sunday’s tilt between the Bucs and Jaguars opened with Jacksonville listed as a 3-point favorite. That said, the line has “jumped the fence.” Will the Bucs win back-to-back games both straight up and against the spread?
463 Tampa Bay Bucs (-1.5) at 464 Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5); O/U 47.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 1, 2019
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Bucs are receiving 62% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Tampa Bay Bucs Fantasy Spin
Jameis Winston completed 30-of-51 passes for 313 yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions in Tampa Bay's Week 11 loss to the Saints. It's officially the second time this season Winston's tossed four interceptions. Down 27-17 with 5:07 remaining in the fourth quarter, Winston reared back and gifted S Marcus Williams a 55-yard pick-six to clinch the game for the Saints. Winston's final turnover on the afternoon occurred on Tampa Bay's ensuing drive during a soft-tossed one-yard fade route to Mike Evans that left the receiver audibly yelling at his signal-caller as the two marched off the field. Despite pacing for 4,925 passing yards through 10 games in '19, Winston's current interception rate puts him firmly in line to become the first quarterback to throw 29 picks since Brett Favre did so back in 2005; Eli Manning more recently threw 27 in 2013. Even so, Winston's fantasy production keeps him in play as a low-end QB1 in Week 12 against the Falcons.
Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Spin
Leonard Fournette contributed 97 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries while adding nine grabs for 62 yards on 12 targets Sunday in Jacksonville’s Week 12 loss to the Titans. Fournette had a hand in just about everything the Jags did on Sunday, flooding the box score with 159 yards from scrimmage, a feat he accomplished on a career-high 33 touches. He obliterated his previous career-best of eight targets, settling in as Nick Foles' go-to target down the stretch. Beyond his absurd usage, Fournette got another monkey off his back by punching in a pair of touchdowns (each of the goal-line variety), doubling his season total while also erasing a five-game scoreless drought. Jacksonville has trailed often this year but negative game-script seems not to faze Fournette, who is on the cusp of his second 1,000-yard rushing season. He can reach that milestone when the Bucs visit in Week 13.
NFL Betting Trends
The Bucs are just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games overall and are winless at the betting window in their last five games coming off a win.
The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games overall but are 16-4-1 against the number in their last 21 games when playing in Week 13.
Winston has put together some of the biggest games of his career against the Falcons, so it’s not overly surprising that he led the Bucs to an upset win in Atlanta last week. (I fully admit to backing the Falcons and laying the points last week, but that’s still worth pointing out.) Thus, backing the Jaguars makes some sense as Winston is unlikely to put together back-to-back outstanding performances. Nevertheless, I am going to roll the dice on the Bucs. I just don’t like the matchup for the Jaguars, who need to lean on Fournette if they’re going to snap their current losing streak. The problem is that Todd Bowles fixed the Bucs’ run defense and it’s going to be difficult for the Jaguars to run the ball consistently. With the way Nick Foles has played, if Fournette can’t find running room things could fall apart in a hurry for Jacksonville.
NFL Week 13 Prediction: Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5