Browns vs. Steelers Week 13 Prediction
Division rivals meet in Pittsburgh in a matchup of two teams that are fighting for the final wild card spot in the AFC. Will the Browns sweep their AFC North rivals with another victory over the Steelers, or will Mike Tomlins’ squad pull off the small upset?
471 Cleveland Browns (-2) at 472 Pittsburgh Steelers (+2); O/U 39
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 1, 2019
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Browns are receiving 59% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Cleveland Browns Fantasy Spin
Odell Beckham (groin) wasn't listed on the Browns' final injury report. OBJ was never at risk of missing any real game action. The Browns have utilized the following target distribution since adding Kareem Hunt to the lineup in Week 10: Beckham (30 targets), Jarvis Landry (30), Kareem Hunt (20), Nick Chubb (9), Demetrius Harris (4), KhaDarel Hodge (3), Stephen Carlson (2) Rashard Higgins (2), Wyatt Teller (1) and Ricky Seals-Jones (1). OBJ and Landry have worked as the league's PPR WR20 and WR2 during this stretch, respectively. Treat each as low-end WR1s in this spot. The Steelers rank No. 16 and No. 17 in DVOA against No. 1 and No. 2 WRs, respectively.
Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Spin
James Conner (shoulder) is doubtful for Week 13. Benny Snell received a bell-cow role with 22 touches in Week 12, but his 103 scoreless yards were a bit disappointing considering the Steelers were at home and facing the Bengals' league-worst defense in total rush yards allowed this season. Jaylen Samuels, Trey Edmunds and Kerrith Whyte were also involed. The days of the Steelers handing whoever happens to be playing RB an 80% snap rate are over, as Snell doesn't possess the type of receiving ability to warrant a near every-down role.
NFL Betting Trends
The Browns are 4-1 against the spread in their last five divisional matchups but are just 6-21-2 at the betting window in their last 29 games against opponents with a winning record.
The Steelers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games and are 7-2 against the number in their last nine games overall.
Devlin Hodges will start for the Steelers after Tomlin benched Mason Rudolph last week in Cincinnati. With the way Rudolph was struggling, Hodges should provide a spark for this Pittsburgh offense. Not having Conner again will hurt, but Benny Snell played well versus the Bengals and besides, this matchup is more about the Steelers defense. The Browns have played much better of late offensively, but they still have issues along their offensive line. With how ferocious Pittsburgh’s pass-rush has been, I like the Steelers in a revenge spot following their loss to the Browns just two weeks ago in Cleveland.
NFL Week 13 Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers +2