Bucs vs. Falcons Prediction
The Atlanta Falcons have seemingly emerged from the fog they were under in October but even though they've won back-to-back games, will they cover the spread against the visiting Tampa Bay Bucs Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET?
Who Oddsmakers Like: Atlanta. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Falcons are 10-point home favorites versus the Bucs, who opened as 8.5-point road underdogs. As for the total, the number hit the board at 49 but has been bet down to 47.5.
Who the Public Likes: Atlanta. As of Sunday morning, 55% of betting tickets were on the Falcons to cover the double-digit point spread.
Who the Trends Like: Tampa and the over. The road team has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings between these two teams while the Bucs are 12-5 against the spread in their last 17 trips to Atlanta. In the last seven meetings in Atlanta, the over is also 5-2.
Who We Like: Tampa Bay. The Falcons appear to have figured some things out offensively and they're coming off a huge victory on Monday night in Seattle. But that's part of the reason I don't like them to cover today.
That victory over the Seahawks came at a price. First and foremost, the travel alone was rigorous and the short week didn't help Atlanta either. That was also one of the more physical games and the Falcons defense was on the field virtually the entire second half. While the offense is probably fine, I expect the defense to be worn down a little.
One other reason to back Tampa Bay today: As previously mentioned, the Bucs have been a tremendous bet in recent games against the Falcons, especially in Atlanta. The Falcons did blow the Bucs out last year but that came on a Thursday night in Tampa after the Bucs had just played an extra quarter four days prior because their game went to overtime. Tampa was worn down. Otherwise, go back to the Bucs' victory in Atlanta in Week 1 last year. They seem to give the Falcons fits.
NFL WEEK 12 PREDICTIONS: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +10