Cowboys vs. Patriots ATS Prediction
The Cowboys and Patriots will square off in Foxborough on Sunday with the host Pats laying 6 points. Is that too many or will New England cover while winning its 10th game of the season?
269 Dallas Cowboys (+6) at 270 New England Patriots (-6); O/U 45
4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 22
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Patriots are receiving 56% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Spin
Ezekiel Elliott rushed 16 times for 45 yards and a touchdown in the Cowboys' Week 11 win over the Lions, adding two receptions for 28 additional yards and another score. The Cowboys utilized a pass-first approach for most of the afternoon. Elliott's long run on the day was an eight yard burst through the middle of the defense and into the end zone. He found the promised land again later from 17 yards out on a screen. Zeke hasn't had much consistency in terms of pass-game usage this season, and Tony Pollard's four targets weren't a great sign of that improving in the future. Elliott is probably better approached as more of a low-end RB1 in next week's brutal spot against the Patriots.
New England Patriots Fantasy Spin
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Tom Brady (right elbow, questionable) is expected to play Sunday. Brady wasn't listed on the injury report until Friday, but Rapoport reports this is "more managing the elbow and taking care of it than anything." The bigger issue for Brady at the moment is his banged up group of WRs, as each of Phillip Dorsett (concussion), Mohamed Sanu (ankle) and Julian Edelman (shoulder) are listed as questionable. Dorsett and Edelman are tentatively expected to play through the pain, but this 2019 version of the Patriots offense isn't the same world-beating group as we've seen in past years.
NFL Betting Trends
The Cowboys are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games played in November and are winless against the spread in their last six games versus an opponent with a winning record.
The Patriots are 22-5 against the spread in their last 27 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Given the Pats’ current form, this is too many points to hand a Cowboys team with a red-hot quarterback and the ability to run the ball with Elliott. There’s something off about this Patriots offense and if Brady is banged-up, all the more reason to back Dallas as an underdog. Granted, the Pats defense has been excellent all season, although they haven’t faced many quarterbacks with a pulse this season. The Dallas offense now runs through Dak Prescott, who is a fringe MVP candidate right now. I’ll take the points but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cowboys won outright.
NFL Week 12 Prediction: Dallas Cowboys +6