Colts vs. Texans TNF Total Prediction
A key clash in the AFC South takes place this Thursday night when the Texans host the Colts at 8:20 p.m. ET. With the total dropping from 46.5 down to 45.5, is the best play for bettors the under?
109 Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) at 110 Houston Texans (-3.5); 45.5
8:20 p.m. ET, Thursday, November 21, 2019
NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Texans are drawing 58% of the betting tickets ahead of tonight’s game.
Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Spin
Colts coach Frank Reich said Marlon Mack (hand) underwent procedure Monday morning. ESPN's Adam Schefter adds it's "not thought to be season-ending." Reich said it's likely Nyheim Hines still sticks in the hybrid role with either Jordan Wilkins (ankle) or Johnathan Williams replacing Mack as the team's lead runner. Williams logged 31 snaps and out-carried Hines 10 to 3 in Indy's Week 11 domination over the Jaguars and is the leading candidate to get the first crack at Houston's run defense as a usage-based RB2/3 in Thursday's divisional tilt. it's also worth noting Hines averaged 8.5 targets in the four games Mack missed last year. Wilkins needs to be prioritized among Week 12's waiver adds.
Houston Texans Fantasy Spin
Deshaun Watson (ankle) was listed as a full participant on the Texans' estimated practice report Monday. The Texans didn't actually practice Monday, but they're required to submit an estimated injury report. Watson appeared to badly hurt his ankle in Week 11, but didn't miss any game action. He's fully expected to suit up Thursday night against the Colts. Watson is an auto-start fantasy QB, although don't underestimate the chances that this injury limits his sky-high rushing floor. Overall, only Lamar Jackson (9) has more games with at least 30 rushing yards than Watson (6) this season.
The under is 13-3 in the Colts’ last 16 games versus a team with a winning record.
The under is 5-0 in the Texans’ last five games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
NFL Week 12 Prediction
The under has been highly profitable in Houston home games, cashing in seven of the Texans’ last eight games at NRG Stadium. The under is also 19-7 in their last 26 conference games, is 7-3 in their last 10 games played in November and is 5-1 in their last six divisional games. On the other side, the under is 13-6 in the Colts’ last 19 games versus AFC South opponents and is 8-3 in their last 11 games played in November. With no Mack, likely no T.Y. Hilton and a defense that continues to play well, I don’t see the Colts scoring or surrendering many points this Thursday night. Plus, with Watson hobbled, I would imagine Houston will keep the ball on the ground, which will limit possessions and keep the scoring down as well.
NFL WEEK 12 PREDICTION: Colts/Texans UNDER 45.5