Chiefs vs. Chargers MNF Prediction
The Chiefs are laying 5 points to the Chargers in Mexico City on Monday night, as the NFL wraps up Week 11 of the season. Will the struggling Chiefs cover the number or is there value in the underdog in this AFC West divisional matchup?
475 Kansas City Chiefs (-5) at 476 Los Angeles Chargers (+5); O/U 52.5
8:15 p.m. ET, Monday, November 18
Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 65% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Patrick Mahomes completed 36-of-50 passes for 446 yards and three touchdowns in Kansas City's heartbreaking Week 10 loss to the Titans. You wouldn't have known he was only two weeks removed from a dislocated kneecap. Following an overturned interception on Kansas City's first offensive play from scrimmage, Mahomes responded by capping off a nice 11-play, 69-yard scoring drive with a short play-action shovel pass to Travis Kelce (7/75/1). He continued to make numerous mind-bending highlights throughout the afternoon including a 63-yard touchdown to rookie Mecole Hardman that saw the former MVP hop up in a crushed pocket and throw off his left foot. Presumably at full health, Mahomes returns to being a confident Top Two play at his position over the second half of the season. He and Lamar Jackson will sit atop the rankings hierarchy in Week 11 when the Chiefs square off against the Chargers on Monday night.
Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Spin
Philip Rivers completed 17-of-31 passes for 207 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions in the Chargers' 26-24, Week 10 loss to the Raiders. Rivers lost LT Russell Okung to a groin injury on the opening drive and was under siege for the entirety of the game's 60 minutes. He responded by trying to set the interceptions record. Rivers was extremely fortunate to escape with "just" three picks, having two undone by penalty and countless more either dropped or narrowly missed. It was a "gutsy" performance but also a reckless one. Rivers looked like he had no clue what he was doing on the Bolts' futile final drive, simply blinding heaving the ball up into the air one play after another. It didn't seem like the Chargers were running real plays. He was finally picked for a game-sealing INT by Karl Joseph with 0:16 remaining. Throughout the night, Rivers appeared to be playing pitch and catch with Raiders FS Erik Harris. The 37-year-old quarterback has 11 days to regroup for a Monday night date with the Chiefs.
NFL Betting Trends
The Chiefs are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games in which they allowed less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
The Chargers are 8-2 at the betting window in their last 10 games when playing in the month of November.
There’s no debate that Kansas City’s weakness is its defense, specifically its run defense. That said, I don’t see how L.A. moves the ball consistently tonight offensively. Chargers right tackle Sam Tevi (knee) has been ruled out for tonight’s game, while left tackle Russell Okung (groin) is questionable after not practicing all week. L.A. has one of the worst offensive lines in all of football and now its depth is once again an issue. If the Chargers can get Melvin Gordon rolling, perhaps they’ll limit possessions and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. That said, if Mahomes and Co. get rolling, there’s no way the Bolts can keep pace in a shootout. The Chiefs are 4-1 in their last five meetings with the Chargers. It should be 5-1 by the end of the night.
NFL Week 11 Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -5