Saints vs. Bucs NFL Week 11 Prediction
NFC South foes face off in Tampa today when the Bucs host the Saints as a 5-point home underdog. Are the Bucs the best play for bettors or will the Saints rebound in a big way following just their second loss of the season?
453 New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at 454 Tampa Bay Bucs (+5.5); O/U 50.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 17, 2019
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Saints are receiving 61% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
New Orleans Saints Fantasy Spin
Saints CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) is out for Week 11 against the Bucs. This was expected after not practicing this week, but it's fantastic news for Mike Evans, who was slowed down by Lattimore in their last matchup. Evans will be a high-ceiling WR1 with likely good game script. P.J. Williams and Eli Apple will be the primary corners for New Orleans.
Tampa Bay Bucs Fantasy Spin
Coach Bruce Arians said Ronald Jones "can do even more in the passing game". Arians specifically mentioned doing more than just catch screen passes because Jones has developed his route tree. All of this praise comes just days after Jones surprisingly caught 8-of-8 targets for 77 yards against Arizona. It's an ability we haven't seen out of the former second-rounder even going back to his college days at USC, but Jones has taken positive steps all across the board in 2019 after a miserable rookie season. Jones is ascending towards RB2 fantasy value. He'll be tested against the Saints this weekend.
NFL Betting Trends
The Saints are 6-1 against the spread the spread in their last seven games overall and are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 road games.
The Bucs are 0-5 against the number in their last five games overall and have failed to cover in all four of their last four home games as well.
The Saints looked rough in their matchup versus the Falcons last Sunday, allowing Drew Brees to be sacked six times and struggling to shake free against an Atlanta secondary that had been surrendering yards all season. The Bucs do not have a great defensive backfield and Michael Thomas should carve up Tampa’s secondary today. That said, the Saints won’t be able to move the ball on the ground against Todd Bowles’ front seven, which has been stellar versus the run all season. Thus, I see the Saints being one dimensional offensively. On the other side, without Lattimore, the Bucs should be able to do some damage against New Orleans’ secondary and keep this one close with a couple of big plays.
NFL Week 11 Prediction: Tampa Bay Bucs +5.5