Bills vs. Dolphins Week 11 Prediction
The Dolphins will go for their third straight victory on Sunday when they host AFC East rival the Bills at 1:00 p.m. ET. That said, Miami is receiving zero respect from oddsmakers, as the team is catching 6.5 points at home. Will the Dolphins cover?
463 Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at 464 Miami Dolphins (+6.5); O/U 40.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 17
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Bills are receiving 53% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Spin
Josh Allen completed 22-of-41 passes for 266 scoreless yards in the Bills' 19-16, Week 10 loss to the Browns, adding six carries for 28 additional yards and two touchdowns. Allen had zero turnovers, but not for lack of tying. He let the ball get punched out from behind inside the 10-yard line, but the Bills made a fluky recovery. Beyond that, it was another inefficient day lacking in big plays. Allen is not providing spiked weeks in fantasy, which was what his entire 2019 case was built around. The Dolphins do represent yet another potential eruption spot for Week 11.
Miami Dolphins Fantasy Spin
Coach Brian Flores said Ryan Fitzpatrick will remain the QB for the "foreseeable future." Fitzpatrick has led the Dolphins to consecutive wins over the Jets and Colts, playing reasonably well along the way. Still, his presence under center means the team won't have much of a chance to evaluate season-year signal caller Josh Rosen. Perhaps a bust game or two from Fitzpatrick will change Flores' mind, but don't expect a change at QB anytime soon.
NFL Betting Trends
The Bills are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five road games and are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games played in November.
The Dolphins are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games overall and are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.
The favorite is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams and I like the Bills to cover on Sunday. They’re coming off a loss to the Browns and their run defense is an issue, but the Dolphins are having all sorts of issues defensively this season. Lost in the defeat in Cleveland is how Buffalo’s offensive line protected Josh Allen. If he has that sort of time again this week, I expect Allen to have a big game and lead the Bills to a 7-plus point victory in Miami.
NFL Week 11 Prediction: Buffalo Bills -6.5