Steelers vs. Browns TNF Total Prediction
The total for Thursday night’s AFC North matchup between the Steelers and Browns opened at 41 but has been bet down to 40.5. Is the under the best play for bettors or is there at least some value in the over?
309 Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) vs. 310 Cleveland Browns (-2.5); O/U 40.5
8:20 p.m. ET, Thursday, November 14, 2019
FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH
According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Browns are drawing 63% of the betting tickets ahead of tonight’s game.
Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Spin
James Conner (shoulder) remained "full" on Tuesday. It means Conner is ready to return for Thursday's game against the Browns after missing Weeks 9 and 10. Conner's presence was sorely missed, especially against the Rams. Once again running as a bell-cow workhorse, Conner is squaring off with a defense allowing 135 rushing yards per game and nearly five yards per carry. He's in the RB1 mix for Week 11.
Cleveland Browns Fantasy Spin
Olivier Vernon (knee) remained sidelined for Tuesday's practice. He's a long-shot to suit up for Week 11 considering the Browns have a short turnaround against the Steelers on Thursday night. Vernon was replaced by Chad Thomas against the Bills — a drastic difference from having PFF's 18th-best edge defender among 117 qualifiers available at defensive end. Vernon's absence would be an upgrade for both James Conner (shoulder) and Jaylen Samuels.
The under is 7-2 in the Steelers’ last nine games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
The under is 7-2 in the Browns’ last nine home games versus a team with a winning road record.
NFL Week 11 Prediction
The Steelers’ pass rush will give Baker Mayfield and the Browns’ offensive line fits. Cleveland’s offensive tackles have struggled all season and Pittsburgh will put enough heat on Mayfield to cause issues for the Browns most drives. The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams in Cleveland, is 17-7-1 in the Browns’ last 25 home games and is 5-2 in the Steelers’ last seven games overall.
NFL WEEK 11 PREDICTION: STEELERS/BROWNS UNDER 40.5