Patriots vs. Broncos Prediction
The Denver Broncos have gotten their teeth kicked in the past three weeks but will they show up tonight against the New England Patriots when the two teams meet at 8:30 p.m. ET for Sunday Night Football?
Who Oddsmakers Like: New England. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Patriots are 7.5-point road favorites tonight against the Broncos, who opened as 7.5-point home underdogs. As for the total, the number hit the board at 46.5 but was bet down two full points to 44.5.
Who the Public Likes: New England. As of Sunday morning, nearly 70% of tickets were on the Patriots to cover the spread.
Who the Trends Like: Denver and the under. In the last seven meetings between these two teams, the under is 5-2 and in the last eight meetings, the home team is 7-1 against the spread. The Patriots are also just 2-6 against the number in their last eight trips to Denver.
Who We Like: Denver. I can't put together a compelling on-the-field case to take the Broncos tonight. Their defense gave up last week in Philadelphia as soon as Brock Osweiler started turning the ball over early. The Broncos should get crushed again tonight and John Q. Public Bettor should laugh all the way to the bank.
That said, the NFL is goofy. Just when you think you have a beat on it, the Giants waltz into Denver as a double-digit road dog and beat the Broncos outright with a national audience walking. Or the Dolphins erase a 17-0 halftime deficit to beat the Falcons as nearly a double-digit road underdog in Atlanta. Or the Redskins, playing with just one healthy offensive linemen, travel to Seattle and beat the Seahawks as an 8-point underdog. You catch my drift.
The Patriots are a massive public team in Week 11 and that makes me hesitate to back Tom Brady and Co., even though New England is coming off its bye. I do think the Broncos will muster up enough pride to play well for their home crowd and stay within a touchdown, even though I can't provide a good Xs and Os reason for that statement. Call it a gut feel.
NFL WEEK 10 PREDICTIONS: DENVER BRONCOS +7.5