Broncos vs. Falcons Prediction
After pulling off a stunning comeback in a win over the Chargers last Sunday at home, the Broncos hit the road on Sunday to take on a Falcons team that has yet to win at home this season. Will Atlanta notch that first home victory or is Denver the play as a 4-point road dog?
453 Denver Broncos (+4) at Atlanta Falcons (-4); o/u 49
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 8, 2020
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Denver Broncos DFS Spin
Drew Lock completed 26-of-41 passes for 248 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception in the Broncos' 31-30, Week 8 win over the Chargers. Lock entered this one without a touchdown pass since Week 1 and a 0:4 TD:INT mark in that span. The first half looked like much of the same with Lock going 9-of-15 for 58 scoreless yards at the break. But the Chargers ended up blowing a 21-point lead, and Lock was a big part of it on the stat sheet. His three fourth-quarter touchdowns went to Albert Okwuegbunam (9 yards), DaeSean Hamilton (40), and the game-winner to KJ Hamler (1) as time expired. Lock has been mostly bad as a sophomore, but he made the throws in the final 15 minutes of this one. Lock gets an easy draw in Atlanta for Week 9 but still won't be anything more than a recommended back-end QB2.
Atlanta Falcons DFS Spin
Matt Ryan completed 21-of-30 passes for 281 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception in the Falcons' 25-17, Week 8 win over the Panthers, adding six rushes for 27 yards and a touchdown. Ryan's first rushing score of the season was just his second since 2018. He has only 10 for his 13-year career. On the 13-yard "rumble," Ryan somehow found the edge and was able to sneak into the end zone ahead of a crawling Troy Pride after the DB fell down. Ryan entered the evening leading the NFL in passing, but tonight was the fourth time in five starts he was held to one or zero touchdowns through the air. That has been killing his fantasy value. Losing Calvin Ridley to an ankle injury isn't going to help, though Ridley has 10 days to get cleared for next week's matchup with the Broncos. With or without Ridley, Ryan will find himself on the QB1/2 borderline for that one.
Broncos vs. Falcons Betting Prediction
The Broncos had no business winning that game last week, but I see this as the perfect time to fade them with the line being this low. For all intents and purposes, the Falcons should be 5-3 on the season, but mind-blowing, last-minute collapses to the Cowboys, Bears and Lions have Atlanta at 2-6. Nonetheless, the Falcons are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games versus a team with a losing record while the Broncos are just 8-20 against the number in their last 28 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
NFL WEEK 9 BETTING PREDICTION: ATLANTA FALCONS -4