Patriots vs. Bills Total Prediction

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills, 10/29/18 MNF Predictions

With the total sitting in the mid-40s, what’s the best bet for Monday night’s AFC East tilt between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills? Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET.

Game Snapshot

275 New England Patriots at 276 Buffalo Bills

8:15 p.m. ET, Monday, October 29

New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY

Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers from online sports book, the Patriots are 14-point favorites to beat the Bills. The total, meanwhile, sits at 44.5 points. As of this writing, 65% of the public betting tickets are on the Patriots to cover the point spread.

New England Patriots

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Rob Gronkowski (back) is expected to play Monday night against the Bills. Gronkowski is officially questionable, but the expectation all week has been he will play. A Buffalo native, Gronk has absolutely destroyed the Bills throughout his career, averaging nearly a touchdown per game. Buffalo has played tight ends well so far this season, but Gronk remains an elite option.

Buffalo Bills

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports LeSean McCoy has cleared the concussion protocol. This was always the expectation after he was able to practice on Thursday. The Bills have scored 31 points total the last four games, so McCoy does not carry much fantasy upside, but he should be the focal point of the offense in a pretty good spot. That keeps him in the RB2 conversation.

NFL Betting Trends

New England

The under is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last five divisional games.


The under is 4-0 in the Bulls’ last four games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous contest.


The Bills have scored 14 points or fewer in three consecutive games, cashing the under in five straight. That said, this is a low total in a New England game, which creates at least some value. Josh Gordon and Tom Brady finally look on the same page and Gronkowski is expected to play. With running back Sony Michel out, the Patriots should get James White in the mix early and often, which means more pass attempts and fewer runs between the tackle. I see the Patriots airing it out more than playing ball-control and despite Buffalo’s solid play defensively to date, I could see the Patriots hanging 40 on the Bills tonight.


Monday Night Football Total Prediction: Patriots/Bills over 44.5


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