NFL Week 7 Predictions: Broncos vs. Chargers under a smart bet? 10/20/17

Broncos vs. Chargers Total Pick

Is the under a smart bet on Sunday when the Chargers host their AFC West rivals the Broncos at 4:25PM ET?

Game Info

Who: Broncos (3-2) at Chargers (2-4)

When: 4:25PM ET, Sunday, October 22

Where: StubHub Center, Carson, CA

Betting Odds

According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the over/under currently sits at 40.5 after hitting the board at 42.5. As for the side, the Chargers opened as 2.5-point home underdogs but the line is now a pick'em at the majority of online sportsbooks.

Public Betting Information

Public bettors love Denver in this matchup. As of this writing 74% of public bettors are taking the Broncos in this pick'em. Even though Denver has had the better season to this point, it is interesting to see bettors back the Broncos after losing last Sunday night as a double-digit home favorite versus the previously winless Giants. (Contrast that loss to the Chargers' win over the Raiders on the road.)

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Key Betting Trends

The Broncos are 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games versus the Chargers while the road team is 10-3-2 against the number in the last 15 meetings between these two teams. The Broncos, however, are also just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games and have failed to cover in four of their last five games following a double-digit loss at home. On the other side, the Chargers are 2-8-1 against the spread in their last 11 games overall and are 1-4-1 against the number in their last six divisional games.

Our Prediction

The under is a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams when the Chargers are the host team. The under is also 6-2 in the Chargers' last eight conference games. On the other side, the under is 6-1 in the Broncos' last seven games played in October and 7-1 in their last eight games coming off a loss.

 

NFL WEEK 7 PREDICTIONS: BRONCOS/CHARGERS UNDER 40.5