Packers vs. Cowboys Week 5 Prediction
A key matchup in the NFC pits the Packers against the Cowboys in Dallas on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. Laying 3.5 points as a home favorite, are the ‘Boys in a good bounce back spot versus the banged-up Pack?
473 Green Bay Packers (+3.5) at 474 Dallas Cowboys (-3.5); O/U 47
4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 6, 2019
Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CA
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Packers are receiving 55% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Green Bay Packers Fantasy Spin
Jamaal Williams (concussion) has been ruled out for the Packers' Week 5 matchup against the Cowboys. Williams suffered a scary concussion on the first play of Week 4 and won't suit up in Week 5. Aaron Jones went on to play 84% of the offense's snaps with Williams sidelined, although we probably shouldn't expect this type of usage to continue in Week 5. Sure, Jones *should* receive a nice bump and play more than his 40-60% snap rate in Weeks 1-3, but No. 3 RB Dexter Williams wasn't active last Thursday night. Coach Matt LaFleur has preached his commitment to a committee approach all season, so we wouldn't anticipate him completely handing the backfield over to Jones this early in the year.
Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Spin
ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Michael Gallup (knee) is expected to play in Week 5 against the Packers. Although Gallup will suit up, expectations should be tempered as it's probable he'll be limited both physically and usage wise. It's also a horrendous matchup against a Packers secondary that's had no issues in limiting opposing wideouts to the fifth-fewest fantasy points this season. The second-year pro should be treated as a WR4/5 for Week 5 until back at full speed next Sunday against the Jets.
NFL Betting Trends
The Packers are 3-7-1 against the spread in their last 11 road games and have failed to cover in 12 of their last 18 conference games (with one push).
The Cowboys have covered the number in five of their last seven home games and are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games played in the month of October.
I don’t often bypass an opportunity to back Aaron Rodgers as an underdog and I won’t here, despite the fact that Green Bay is limping into this matchup. The Packers will be without receiver Davante Adams (toe) and could be without Williams and Kevin King (groin) as well. That said, if the Cowboys are the healthier team, it won’t be by much. Left tackle Tyron Smith (ankle) won’t play, which is a huge concern for Dak Prescott and the rest of Dallas’ passing game. The packers have pressured opposing quarterbacks at a league-best rate through four weeks, so Cameron Flemming will have his hands full trying to protect Prescott’s blind side. La’el Collins (back) also missed some practice time this week and while he’s still expected to play, if he’s re-injured, the Cowboys could be in a world of hurt in the trenches. The Packers are also 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games versus the Cowboys while the underdog and road team are both 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams, respectively.
NFL Week 5 Prediction: Green Bay Packers +3.5