NFL Week 5 Predictions: Will Patriots cover spread vs. Bucs? 10/5/17

Patriots vs. Bucs Prediction

Will the Patriots bounce back from last week’s loss to beat the Bucs and cover as a road favorite tonight?

Game Info

Who: Patriots (2-2) at Bucs (2-1)

When: 8:25PM ET, Thursday, October 5

Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

The Odds

According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Patriots are 5-point road favorites to knock off the Bucs in Tampa. New England opened as a 5-point favorite but the line was bet up to 5.5 earlier this week before settling back down at 5. As for the total, the number hit the board at 53.5 but was bet up to 54.5.

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New England Patriots Betting Trends

The Patriots are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four road games and have covered in six of their last seven games when facing an opponent that owns a winning record. They’re also 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games despite failing to cover in three of their first four games. Here’s the key stat: In their last 60 games coming off a loss, New England is 41-18-1 at the betting window.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends

The Bucs are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games overall. They’re also winless at 0-4 against the number in their last five games played on Thursday night. Where the Bucs have really killed bettors is at home, where the team is just 22-46-1 at the betting window in their last 69 games at Raymond James Stadium.

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Our Prediction: The Patriots defense has been horrendous. They’ve allowed each of the four quarterbacks they faced this year to throw for 300-plus yards this season and have allowed 33-plus points in three of their first four games. That said, Tom Brady is quietly off to one of the best starts of his career. He owns a 116.6 QB rating with 10 touchdowns passes and a 9.0 yards-per-attempt average. At some point Bill Belichick will iron out the communication problems that the Pats have had in their secondary. Once he does that, New England’s defense will go from horrifying to average. The Patriots won’t fix all of their issues tonight, but I still love them coming off a loss. They’re 41-18-1 against the number in their last 60 games following defeat.

 

NFL WEEK 5 PREDICTIONS: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -5