Colts vs. Patriots Total Prediction
The Thursday Night Football matchup this week will take place in Foxborough where the New England Patriots will host the Indianapolis Colts at 8:20 p.m. ET. With the total sitting in the low 50s, will the teams combine for enough points to push the score over?
8:20 p.m. ET, Thursday, October 4
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Patriots are 10-point favorites to beat the Colts. The total, meanwhile, sits at 51.5 points. As of this writing, 55% of the public betting tickets are on the Colts to cover the point spread.
Andrew Luck completed 40-of-62 passes for 464 yards and four touchdowns in the Colts' 37-34, Week 4 loss to the Texans. The 62 attempts and 464 yards both set new career-highs for Luck. At one point, the Colts trailed by three possessions in the second half. But Luck rallied the team back as the Texans tried to give it away to the Colts, who were able to force overtime. Luck entered the day at the bottom of the barrel in yards-per-attempt, but he unleashed more downfield throws in this one, hitting T.Y. Hilton for a pair of 40-plus-yard grabs. Hilton eventually pulled his hamstring in the fourth quarter, leaving Nyheim Hines as Luck's top target. The two hooked up for two red-zone touchdowns, with the other two going to Zach Pascal and Eric Ebron. Luck's arm figures to surely be a bit tender this week ahead of a Thursday night date in Foxboro with the Patriots where he'll be a volume-driven QB1. The Colts have zero running game.
New England Patriots
Tom Brady completed 23-of-35 passes for 274 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in the Patriots' 38-7, Week 4 demolition of the Dolphins. Brady got off to a slow start, relying on the running game and Dolphins mistakes to get the Patriots some momentum. He heated up, finding Cordarrelle Patterson for a 55-yard screen score before delivering some real touchdown dimes to Phillip Dorsett and James White. It was Brady's best performance of the season, though he still appeared to be lacking arm drive at times, including both his interceptions. The first was a bad decision to a blanketed Dorsett. The second was a (late) blind heave into traffic. Brady needs Julian Edelman back, which he will receive in Week 5 against the Colts on Thursday Night Football. Of concern is that Rob Gronkowski checked out against the Dolphins with an ankle injury.
NFL Betting Trends
The total has fallen under in five of the Colts’ last five games on the road.
The total has gone over in the last eight games between the Colts and Patriots.
The Colts are being forced to use the short passing game for multiple reasons, including a lack of a running game, Luck’s shoulder not being at full strength yet, and the offensive line remains banged-up. Either way, the Colts are consistently putting the ball in the air, which can be a clock killer. The Patriots, meanwhile, seemed to figure things out offensively last week. The backfield combination of Sony Michel and James White got going and Phillip Dorsett emerged as an outside threat, which is something they didn’t have in the previous three weeks. I see a back-and-forth game that will eventually creep over the total.
NFL Week 5 Prediction: Colts/Patriots over 51.5