Chiefs vs. Broncos Total Prediction
AFC West rivals will clash in Denver tonight for “Monday Night Football.” Will Chiefs-Broncos live up to the hype in terms of a high-scoring game or will the combined score fall just under for bettors?
277 Kansas City Chiefs at 278 Denver Broncos
8:15 p.m. ET, Monday, October 1
Broncos Stadium at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites to beat the Chiefs. The total, meanwhile, sits at 54.5 points. As of this writing, 62% of the public betting tickets are on the Chiefs to cover the point spread.
Kansas City Chiefs
NFL Network's Mike Garafolo reports Eric Berry (doubtful, heel) has a Haglund’s deformity in his Achilles. It's a bone spur that digs into the Achilles. This adds some clarity to why Berry has missed so much time. Berry isn't going to play this week, but this looks like a pain-management issue. Eric Murray will continue to start opposite Ron Parker until Berry returns.
Broncos ILB Brandon Marshall (knee) is questionable for Monday night's Week 4 game with Kansas City. Marshall should see his normal snaps after playing through his knee injury last week. The Broncos will be without CB Tramaine Brock (doubtful, thigh) but should get back Adam Jones against the Chiefs.
NFL Betting Trends
The over is 4-0 in the Chiefs’ last four road games and 4-1 in their last five games dating back to last season.
The under is 5-2 in the Broncos’ last seven games and 4-1 in their last five conference matchups.
This game reminds me a lot of the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Ravens and Steelers. The total for last night’s game was sitting at 51 at kickoff and after Baltimore scored two quick touchdowns in the first quarter, bettors that took the over were sitting pretty. By halftime, the Steelers had tied the game at 14-14 and again, over bettors had to be feeling great about their pick.
But then the Steelers were shutout by an underrated Ravens defense in the second half and the total fell under by a combined 11 points. When it was all said and done, the divisional rivals that know each other so well-made adjustments in the second half and played significantly better defensively than they did in the first half.
If you want to take the over tonight because the Chiefs offense is so dynamic, and their defense is a sieve, go for it. But Kansas City has scored 38, 42 and 38 points the first three weeks of the season. This will be the Chiefs’ third road game in their first four games and it wouldn’t be shocking if Patrick Mahomes and Co. faced some adversity tonight. Plus, if you’re the Broncos, wouldn’t a ball-control approach on offense the best way to deal with Kansas City’s high-powered attack?
Long story short, I like the under. I see value there.
NFL Week 4 Prediction: Chiefs/Broncos under 54.5