Patriots vs. Dolphins Spread Prediction

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins, 9/30/18 Week 4 Predictions

The New England Patriots are coming off an ugly performance against the Lions in Week 3. Is this a good time for bettors to buy the Patriots at a discount against the Dolphins or is it best to fade New England for the time being?

Game Snapshot

251 Miami Dolphins at 252 New England Patriots

1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 30

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Patriots are 6.5-point favorites to beat the Dolphins. The total, meanwhile, sits at 49 points. As of this writing, 52% of the public betting tickets are on the Dolphins to cover the point spread.

Miami Dolphins Fantasy News & Notes

DeVante Parker (quad) is questionable for Week 4 against the Patriots. Parker was limited Friday but should be able to suit up in Miami's divisional showdown against the Pats Sunday. He hauled in two of his three targets for 40 yards in Week 3, a majority of that production coming on a 36-yard gain in the third quarter. Jakeem Grant and Albert Wilson were the odd men out with Parker making his debut, running just 11 total routes against the Raiders. Grant is an intriguing flier and deep-league FLEX if Parker is stunningly declared inactive.

New England Patriots Fantasy News & Notes

Josh Gordon (hamstring) is expected to play in Week 4 against the Dolphins. His availability is still providing his pre-game workout goes well and coach Bill Belichick decides he's ready. Gordon has been limited in every practice since being acquired by the Patriots. Assuming he's active, his usage and eventual snap counts are anyone's guess. RotoPat currently has Gordon ranked at No. 50 in his Week 4 WR rankings, though he could be viewed slightly higher if we get word he's a full go with no limitations against the Dolphins.

NFL Betting Trends

Miami

The Dolphins are 2-5-1 against the spread in their last eight games against the rest of the AFC East.

New England

The Patriots are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against the rest of the division.

Prediction

There’s no question the Patriots have issues. Defensively, they’re getting gashed on the ground and offensively, they have no outside presence, although perhaps Gordon will help in that area. But how many times are people ready to write off the Patriots in September only to watch them play in the Super Bowl come February? The Dolphins are 0-6 against the spread in their last six games in Foxborough and are 2-5 against the number in their last seven games versus the Pats overall. With the spread sitting below a touchdown and the Pats at home, New England feels undervalued here.

 

NFL Week 4 Prediction: New England Patriots -6.5

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